Reds Rumors: Swisher, Nady, Baldelli

how many strikeouts did kemp have you fail to include that

Posted by: patrick | January 07, 2009 at 09:53 PM

cano 597 at bats 65 k's in 2008!

kemp 606 at bats 153K's in 2008!

Swisher, on the other hand, would fit the Reds plan. Is he the best option available, no. But, I think he would provide a big OBP boost for their lineup and would supply some power in small GABP.

I know everyone overvalues their prospects, but the Reds are not giving up too much for Swisher. Alonso, Valaika, Frazier, and Soto are all staying where they are.

I would offer Bailey as another highly touted arm for the Yanks system, a young arm in double A for the yanks to groom, and another B prospect, which in my opinion might be Stubbs.

Where did you see anything specific about Nady being mentioned with the Reds. All that was said was Jocketty was talking to Cashman, and that Cashman wanted to move one of the two. Nothing has been pinpointed to any particular players in discussions between the two teams.

What's the difference between a strikeout and a pop fly or a ground out? Nothing. Both result in 1 out.

How about:
Cano: 86 OPS+ (14% WORSE than league average)
Kemp: 108 OPS+ (8% BETTER than league average)

"kemp has huge holes in his swing...his k totals will only increase"

Umm, Kemp is 23. He's only been playing baseball since he was 18. He's gotten better every year. And the scouts project him as a 30-30 hitter who will contend for the league MVP year in and year out.
You know who else have "holes in their swing"? Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard. So I'll take a player with "holes in his swing" who can still get on base, even if he strikes out a ton. And by the way, Kemp had 66 K's in just under 300 ABs in 2007. That's almost the same ratio as in 2008. Kemp batted .342 in 2007.

Taylor89,

i agree but both players are very young and have time to develop into stars.

I'm so scared to make an argument on this page now.

Everybody keeps referencing batting average, strikeouts, RBI and supposed "holes in swings."

I feel like if I use complex statistics like OPS+ (whoaaaaaa), then nobody will understand what I'm saying and just come back with this:

"cano 597 at bats 65 k's in 2008!

kemp 606 at bats 153K's in 2008!"

One last comment about some of the known flaws of OPS:

1- It is correctly pointed out that slugging and OPB are given equal value in OPS but it has not been demonstrated statistically that this is a valid way to measure these 2 components of OPS

2- Slugging percentage is by itself viewed as a suspect measure of hitting prowess due to the way total bases are counted. Is a home run really worth 4 times a single, and is a double really worth twice a single, in terms of how each type of hit affects a team's likelihood of scoring runs and/or winning games? This ratio of impact for singles, doubles, triples, and home runs and not been clearly proven statistically. Some players with limited power can have a rather high slugging percentage due to a high batting average. For example, would we generally think of a player who hits 7 home runs as a power hitter? Tony Gwynn had a .511 slugging average in 1987 with .500 generally considered the benchmark of a good power hitter- yet Tony hit only 7 home runs in 1987 (but he did bat .370).

3- When calculating OPS, some items are counted once and some items are counted twice or more. For example, a single counts towards both OBP AND Slugging, so all singles are counted twice in the final OPS. How can you count the result of 1 AB twice in any statiscal measure? Walks are counted once in OPS, only counting towards OBP but not counting towards Slugging. So, are we thus saying a single is worth twice as much as a walk? How has this been proven in terms of true impact. Is a double worth 3 times as much as a walk (doubles count twice in Slugging and once in OBP vs. walks counting once - only in OBP)? Again, this has not been elucidated.

OPS is useful as a general measure of a player's ability to get on base by hits or walks and to have impact hits (doubles, triples, and home runs). Just some thoughts on the pros and cons of OPS

"Adam Dunn ? is this the guy no team wants"

Well by that measure, no one wants Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, Bobby Abreu, Orlando Cabrera, Jon Garland, Randy Wolf, Ken Griffey Jr., Orlando Hudson and every other player that hasn't been signed yet.

"in all reality it doesn't matter anyways! cause once manny signs eleswhere the dodgers will be back near the bottom of their division anyways!"

That's hilarious. Taylor89, how old are you? I'm hoping younger than 14. Because you show no knowledge about baseball. I'll say one last thing before I stop fighting with someone who knows nothing other than what is shown on the YES network: If the Dodgers don't sign Manny, they've already said they'd sign either Dunn or Abreu. They won't be "at the bottom of their division". Don't worry.

"teams dont want Dunn because he sucks.your arguments are weak"

He hit 40 home runs and got on base almost 40% of the time. That sucks? Wow. Mr M.Moss, you have just set a new standard for the dumb fan.

who cares how much he strikes out? Ryan howard strikes out 200 times, that really makes him a horrible hitter right?

""Matt Maloney and Chris Valaika should get it done for Nady"
No it wont"
Uhh. It might.
You do realize that Xavier Nady will be a free agent after the season"

when was the last time the yankees traded a starter for prospects??
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Umm...Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield? It would make no sense for the Yanks to trade either Nady or Swisher for a #5 caliber starter. A) taking on more salary B) They can go with the kids C) If they felt the kids weren't ready they can sign plenty of #5 FA still on the market. No team, other than the Brewers, is shopping a CF worth the time of day, and with Ajax a year or two away why go after "filler material"? Meanwhile, you stand to lose almost the entire OF next year and we have no in-house options for Jeter in the farm. A couple of prospect position players that might fill some needs in a year or two would be perfect, especially for Nady who probably won't be back in 2010 anyway.

"Not comparing any particular players, but 180++ hits w/ 15-20 hrs and a .300 bavg is nothing to sneeze at."

Batting average is meaningless. Look at the OBP. Last season Cano's was .305. That's miserable. Even Pierre gets on base more than that. Strikeouts or not.

The Reds should trade Stubbs and arroyyo for Nady and Hughes. Then trade E.E. for jonathon sanchez

Just because someone disagrees with you, doesnt mean they dont have a clue.
Trading prospects for a half a season of Nady, then trading him for just prospects is ridiculous, same with Swisher.
The only weak area have this year is CF, stop talking about AJax-he played ONE season above A ball.

Neither of the two guys are getting traded before the season, and if Melky/Gardner arent getting the job done then maybe one will around June for a CF.

Not comparing any particular players, but 180++ hits w/ 15-20 hrs and a .300 bavg is nothing to sneeze at."

Batting average is meaningless. Look at the OBP. Last season Cano's was .305. That's miserable. Even Pierre gets on base more than that. Strikeouts or not.
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Can we all just agree that Cano had a bad season, but probably NOT indicative to the type of hitter he will be for the majority of his career?

I find it amazing, that baseball might be the only industry that will overvalue the "potential" of a 24 yr old but then discredit a 26 yr old who's PROVEN what he can do but had a bad year. AND THIS IS NOT A CANO VS KEMP ARGUEMENT. I like Kemp a lot and don't think either team will or should look to trade either at this point. But just for the sake of arguing somone compared Kemp's 08 stats vs Cano's and they were close in many areas, except for obp and SB. Kemp has 30-30 "potential" and I think he will fufill that. But how can you dismiss what Cano has already done? You're throwing out 3 out of 4 years of production vs "potential" that hasn't been realized. And keep in mind that Cano is only 26. ANd again...I'm not comparing the players just challenging the ridiculous attitudes people have towards a player. I could almost understand if Cano was in his 30's and his last great year was back in 2001 but thats not the case. I think both players will have great careers. Let's give them time and stop comparing them as if one is a "MVP" and the other, the worlds greatest bust Gregg Jeffries.

"Can we all just agree that Cano had a bad season"

people dont look into the numbers, yes he had a horrible first few months. but he got his swing back the second half. so saying hes done or this is real robby is crazy

My argument is strictly one where Cano isn't that good. I'm not comparing him to any other players.
You say Cano has had 3 good years and 1 bad year. So let's compare his 3 seasons.
In 2005 his OBP was .320. Of 12 qualifying 2Bs, he's dead last. His OPS was 9th among those 12. He had a 106 OPS+, or slightly above league average. Not horrible for a rookie.
In 2006 his OBP was .365. That is very good, and would place him 4th among qualifying 2Bs. Except that his BABIP was an extremely high .363. This lead to his batting average being .342. His OPS for the season was .890, good for 3rd among all 2Bs. And his OPS+ was a 126. This was a great season. However, with his high BABIP, and only getting 508 PAs, this shows that his success was more a function of luck than it was his true skill. Maintaining a high BABIP is not something that has proven to be possible.
In 2007 his OBP was .353, placing him 13th among all qualifying 2Bs. His OPS was .841 and 4th among all 2Bs. Cano played in a full season and has a 120 OPS+. Yet again, pretty good. His slugging percentage helped make up for his OBP. However, again, he had a .331 BABIP. Not quite the insane .363 from the year before, but still well above average.
In 2008 his OBP was .305. This is pitifully low. He was 15th out of 16 qualifying 2Bs. His OPS was .715, 14th among qualifying 2Bs. And his OPS+ was a well-below league average 86. However, this isn't entirely his fault. He had a .286 BABIP. He was extremely luck in both 2006 and 2007, and then slightly unlucky in 2008.
So now we come to 2009. Both the Bill James and Marcel projections put Cano's OBP at around .333. This would have been good for the 11th best OBP among qualifying 2Bs in 2008. They put his OPS around .795, or tied for 7th among 2Bs in 2008.

My point being, Cano isn't a horrible player. But he isn't an outstanding player either. His 2 good seasons were fueled by high BABIP. His one horrendous season was fueled by a below average BABIP. His rookie season was a slightly higher than average BABIP, and he was slightly above league average.
Looking at projections and what he has shown so far, Cano is merely an adequate 2B. His slugging percentage helps make up for his low on base percentage. And in 3 of his 4 years he has been below average defensively. I'm not exactly sure how he went from an 8.1 to a -7.3 from 2007 to 2008 (according to the fangraphs VALUE). So we'll call him an average fielder. He's an average fielder and an average hitter. This is a player who is worth having on your roster for $2 or $3M a year once his 6 years of team control have expired. Except that Cano is guaranteed $29M over the next 3 seasons (if his 2 option years of $14 and $15M are bought out). If they are exercised Cano will be paid $54M over 5 years. He does not produce enough to justify that salary.

You can argue all you want, but Cano is overpaid, and anyone who thinks he has trade value with that contract is misguided. Again, Cano isn't a horrible player, he's just not a great player either.

The Thread is titled "Reds Rumors" and there's more Yankee talk than Reds here. Go away Yankee fans and stop hijacking threads!

Hey Yank fans, let me spell this out so you don't hurt yourselves. The Reds have several untouchables:

Joey Votto
Jay Bruce
Edinson Volquez
Johnny Cueto
Todd Frazier
Yonder Alonso

With that being said, I would be open to trading a couple low level prospects for Swisher. I prefer Swisher over Nady since Nady is a Boras client and only has one year left on his deal.

OK my Babe Ruth numbers were wrong, admit that. And I said Cano had a bad year, I'm a Cano fan.

I understand what your opinion is, but its unrealistic. Every modern day power hitter strikes out 100, 120, 150 times. If you ask them to cut down on their K's then they have to change their swing and wouldnt hit as many HRs

It's like saying, if you throw 95m you have to have an ERA below 2.50 or else you're not a good pitcher, guys strike out

Ichiro hits groundballs 57.5% of the time, IMO if you have a GB% over 50 then you're not great, he's a good hitter but 57.5% is unacceptable, he needs to change his swing

Zack that absolutely is not a good comparison. That's like saying

95mpm fastball = 2.50 era

and

150 strikeouts = 40++ hrs

For some, strikeouts are a bi-product of home run hitting. But if the strike out totals are extremely high (150++) but the home run totals are relatively low (35 or less) then yeah that's a problem. If you're striking out 150x a year you better be hitting 40+ hrs or walking well over 100x or be an exceptional defensive player or have compromising picture involving the GM and farm animals. That's my opinion.

the point is, does it matter if a guy strkes out 120 or 150 times? one is acceptable but the other is not??

the yankees and red sox didnt win world series by having high average guys, they focused on patient hitters with high OBP (not AVG).
how does billy beane make his lineup? focus on high obp and slg %

"couple low level prospects for Swisher"

tell me why would the yankees do that? what does that accomplish?

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Let me first assert that I don't feel the Yanks NEED to trade either Nady or Swhisher. Unless Ramirez is coming here or if the Yanks want to add either Pettite or Sheets to the mix while not extending the payroll past the 2008 limit, there's no good reason that motivates them to make a deal. However, the one thing the farm lacks is positional players. Seeing as how Nady will not factor into the Yankees plans past 2009, if a team came along and offered them 2 or 3 prospects that were a year or two away, especially SS's and OF's, then the Yanks would take a serious look at what they offered. I don't see them trading Nady for a bum #5 starter. I don't see them trading for a utility player and no team is going to give up their CF unless your including a lot more than Nady (please don't even sugest that Kennedy would be enough). ALso, I see no reason why we can't go with Melky/Gardner for a year. They are competent defensively, and Gardner just needs to show whether or not he can handle mlb pitching (127 bats isn't enough to gauge that).

For example, and this is JUST AN EXAMPLE, if the Reds were to offer any of the two they would have to consider it long and hard.

Chris Valaika-SS
Josh Roenicke-Relief Pitcher
Homer Bailey-SP
Matthew Maloney-sp
Daniel Ray Herrera- Relief Pitcher
Bryan Petersen-RF
John Raynor-LF
Chris Mobley-Relief Pitcher
Chris Heisey-CF
Todd Frazier-SS
Ramon Geronimo-Relief Pitcher
Jeremy Horst-SP

"Howard,Dunn and Thomes in his prime produce monster hr totals; their exempt, they get a pass"
"The only way 150 strikeouts should be considered acceptable is if he's hitting upwards of 45+ hrs. "

Dunn hit 45 once. Thome gets a pass because he strikes out alot at HIS age but the other players dont get a pass because THEIR age? That works how?

Howard: .251, 48hr, 199k
Burrell: .250, 33hr, 136k
Werth: .273, 24hr, 120k

wow guess a team with those players will never win a world series huh??

Again, it's ok for you to say that a guy with 150k has to hit 45hr but its not ok for me to say a pitcher who throws 95mph has to have an era of 2.50?

Power hitters strike out, if you want them to cut down their strike outs then their power numbers will also go down.

Ok Zack, I'm done talking to you about this.

And I still don't understand your correlation of how hard a guy throws and his era? Plently of guys throw 95+ and have high era's (Jonathan Sanchez) and plenty of guys who don't throw hard have low era's (Lee, Mussina, Daisuke, Lowe).

A good stat to look at, and I'm not sure if it exists, would be homerun to strikeout ration.

Howard has a 4:1 ko/hr ratio.
Cust has a 6:1 ko/hr ratio.
Kemp has a 8.5:1 ko/hr ratio.

Despite striking out almost 200x Howard produces 45-60 hrs. Kemp strikeout too much considering how little hrs he produces (18).

In fact, I wish they would use a formula like KO+Air Outs/Home Runs+Walks. I think a formula like that would do well to measure players like Cust, Howard, etc. If one already exists then let me know please.

Even better:

(KO'S+AIROUTS-WALKS)/HOMERUNS

why in the world do all these yankee fans think nady is so great i dont even want him for a decent prospect chris dickerson is better than he is whydont the yankees just release nady and then sign ramirez if they dont win it then. then they can release ramirez add keep buying players till they finally buy another championship