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By Steve Adams [February 1, 2009 at 1:50pm CST]
John Perrotto's Every Given Sunday column is up over at Baseball Prospectus. This week, he takes a look at some of the position battles teams will face entering Spring Training. And, as always, there's some interesting items in his Rumors & Rumblings section. Let's take a look:
- Some of the more interesting position battles mentioned: 1B/DH/RF in Oakland (Daric Barton, Jack Cust, Jason Giambi, Aaron Cunningham, and Travis Buck all in the mix), Tampa's closer if Troy Percival gets hurt or falters (Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour), and the White Sox rotation behind John Danks, Mark Buerhle, and Gavin Floyd (Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Bartolo Colon, Jeff Marquez).
- Brian Roberts still wants a four-year deal before Spring Training starts up, or he'll cut off negotiations. Does Roberts make more sense as a cornerstone in Baltimore or as a trade chip?
- Perrotto feels Tom Glavine will inevitably re-sign with the Braves.
- The White Sox have minor interest in signing Ivan Rodriguez as a backup for A.J. Pierzynski. I'm sure Pudge would prefer a starting gig, but at this point, it's tough to be picky.
- We've heard a lot about the Orioles having interest in Rich Hill lately, but Perrotto reminds us that the Mariners are interested in the 28-year-old lefty as well.
Here's how I see the position battles.
A's:
1B: Giambi
DH: Cust
LF: Holliday
RF: Buck
AAA: Barton and Cunningham.
Although I REALLY think Cunningham should also be in the mix for CF; he's got more upside than Sweeney.
Sox rotation:
4. Clayton Richard (he looks the most ready of the prospects).
5. Bartolo Colon.
First guy up if injury is Lance Broadway, as I think he's better than Marquez at this point. Poreda in AAA working AS A STARTER. HE IS NOT A RELIEVER.
Posted by: melonis rex | February 01, 2009 at 01:58 PM
I don't see Marquez making MLB in '09. Poreda will probably do so late season.
Posted by: melonis rex | February 01, 2009 at 01:59 PM
I really hope Perrotto's right about Pudge.
Posted by: astralpanda | February 01, 2009 at 02:03 PM
melonis rex, what team are you a fan of?
Posted by: supermets | February 01, 2009 at 02:11 PM
Rex:
I hope that is how it plays out, although Barton could use some good coaching from Giambi.
I think Barton takes over next year at first, and Cunningham takes over at center as Giambi and Holliday are most likely gone next year. Cunningham is faster and Sweeney is more of a corner outfielder anyways.
If Oakland is going for it this year, they might as well let the big bats hit away.
Posted by: green_and_gold | February 01, 2009 at 02:16 PM
I could see the Braves holding Hanson in AAA til he is ready and using Glavine in the 5 spot. But what will happen to the Glav man when and if Hanson is ready? And i thought that the Braves alredy have a 5th starter in Campillo.
Posted by: Tomahawk368 | February 01, 2009 at 02:26 PM
Glavine in '09
G-27
GS-27
W-9
L-9
ERA-4.70
IP-155.0
H-173
HR-18
BB-62
K-83
WHIP-1.52
Posted by: Tomahawk368 | February 01, 2009 at 02:30 PM
Regarding Roberts, even with emergence of Weiters and a best case scenario of Pie, the Orioles probably won't be a competitor for 3-4 years, assuming everything goes their way with draft picks working out. Unlike the factors that caused the rise of the Rays, the Orioles don't have a pitching staff and their pitching prospects need to be developed. After this time period Roberts will be on a downward decline, but likely still capable.
Anyway, that kinda goes to my point that the Orioles wouldn't be too silly to keep him if they can afford him and rising salaries. On the other hand, even with the economy, the O's would be foolish to underestimate a market for Roberts. This is because there really is no other player on the open market in 2010 like him. Roberts is an elite second baseman, elite leadoff hitter, and still fairly young. Add to it, several teams will knock on his door for services. Cubs (for obvious reasons) could afford a bidding war. If Cano has another bad year the yanks might get involved to bolster the top of the lineup. Mets might find a way to jettison Castillo. And even that's leaving out every other team that who knows what will happen a year down the line.
So conclusion: Quietly shop Roberts, get an offer that nets a few high level prospects then take the money and run. Otherwise, sign him and gamble everything on competing in the last year of Roberts contract.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | February 01, 2009 at 02:38 PM
Those guys in oakland are battling for dh/1b/rf right not 1b/dh/lf.
Posted by: Dj 26 | February 01, 2009 at 02:46 PM
That's the right approach start_wearing_purple. Totally agree.
Posted by: bjsguess | February 01, 2009 at 02:46 PM
Interesting "chunks"? Is that really how you want to phrase it? Tidbits. Notes. Points. Updates. Nuggets. Items. Mentions.
And yes, I'm picking at your words, but sometimes the egregiously poor choice of wording calls for it.
Posted by: hailmatty | February 01, 2009 at 02:50 PM
green_and_gold- Unless Giambi gets hurt or seriously underperforms (or he's traded midseason), he probably won't be gone after '09. His '10 option is pretty damn cheap, and if he's any semblance of productive, its easily picked up.
I think in 2010, Cust moves back out into the field and Giambi moves to DH. Then, a battle ensues among Cunningham, Sweeney, and Buck for the remaining 2 spots, with the loser either becoming 4th OF or trade bait (I think the latter, if they all actually are good). Then, in 2011, DH/LF is a battle with Carter, Doolittle, and Cust. Fun.
Posted by: melonis rex | February 01, 2009 at 02:51 PM
So, the Sox might not be done dealing...
Shocking.
As if I ever put stock in KW saying he will or won't do something.
As far as I can tell, it's usually just a ploy for discussions. KW doesn't like talking to the media, so it seems as though he uses it when it's helpful and dismisses it when it's not...
Posted by: bonzosa | February 01, 2009 at 02:53 PM
"melonis rex, what team are you a fan of?"
A's
"Those guys in oakland are battling for dh/1b/rf right not 1b/dh/lf."
Depends. If Cust is in the field, it might be smarter to move Holliday to RF, if he works out there adequately. Seriously. Being traded to Oakland is probably the worst thing that could happen to Holliday's FA paycheck. Moving to one of the biggest pitcher's parks in MLB, in the AL, a team that's very conservative with SBs, and possibly changing positions.
Although I strongly prefer Giambi at 1B/Cust DH to Cust LF/Giambi DH, especially if the latter means Holliday shifts positions as well. And because I think Buck is more ready than Barton at this point in time.
Posted by: melonis rex | February 01, 2009 at 02:56 PM
Ahh, thanks DJ.
Perrotto's article says "left" for some reason, and I didn't even think about it as I typed it.
Good catch.
As for Hailmatty, I think my wording was fine. However, it's a minor point, and if it'll make you happy... there you are. :)
Posted by: Steve Adams | February 01, 2009 at 02:56 PM
"So, the Sox might not be done dealing...
Shocking.
As if I ever put stock in KW saying he will or won't do something."
KW is a shocker.
I don't think anyone saw the first Swisher deal (the one where Sox got Swisher) coming.
This year's two trades have been rather predictable though, due to Ozzie Guillen.
Posted by: melonis rex | February 01, 2009 at 02:57 PM
The problem is that Oakland has way too may outfielders: Cust, Sweeney, Buck, Cunningham, Denorfia, Davis, etc. And then Beane got Copeland in the Rule 5 draft.
None of them are going to be superstars either. Some will be good, but not elite.
Posted by: green_and_gold | February 01, 2009 at 03:01 PM
I think the Brian Roberts question is actually: Does it make more sense to sign him long-term (preferably 3 yrs, but 4 isn't terrible) or get FA comp picks for him?
The trade market has mostly dried up for Roberts. There isn't even a market for OHudson whom plays comparable defense (maybe a little better) with comparable offense (maybe a little worse - minus the SB's of course).
I think's it's obvious that if there is a good trade out there, the O's should take it. But the O's have almost no long-term contracts (other than the brilliant Markakis one) and they should be able to afford Roberts as a very good supporting player to go with Markakis, Wieters, and Jones. And I can't think of any good 2B/SS prospects in their system.
Posted by: kab21 | February 01, 2009 at 03:13 PM
If the A's are trying to win sooner then later then Sweeney shouldn't be starting. If Sweeney becomes an everyday player this season, its going to require alot of patience and time in order for him to develop and grow accustom to the bigs.
Posted by: ChiSoxKilla23 | February 01, 2009 at 03:22 PM
"If the A's are trying to win sooner then later then Sweeney shouldn't be starting. If Sweeney becomes an everyday player this season, its going to require alot of patience and time in order for him to develop and grow accustom to the bigs."
Agreed but A's don't really have anyone else who can play CF right now.
It's either Sweeney or Cunningham for CF. Apparantly the A's organization is convinced that either Cunningham needs more time in AAA or he's more a corner OF type.
They have Denorfia and Davis, but neither of them are more than 4th OFers.
Posted by: melonis rex | February 01, 2009 at 03:37 PM
Melonis-
Always thought you were a Rays/Twinkie fan for some reason.
Posted by: CubFanRaysaddict | February 01, 2009 at 03:41 PM
CF and SS are going to lag for the A's in '09 unless Sweeney breaks out or Cunningham steals the job.
Posted by: melonis rex | February 01, 2009 at 03:41 PM
The Pudge to the White Sox rumor isn't new. I read it about a week ago. The question is....is the clubhouse big enough for AJ and Pudge. AJ wants to play every day. And Pudge wants to be a starter. This could be a distraction that a good clubhouse doesn't need.
Posted by: sweetswingingbw | February 01, 2009 at 03:42 PM
"Melonis-
Always thought you were a Rays/Twinkie fan for some reason."
I like the way Friedman has constructed that team though and his philosophy though.
And I overvalue prospects, so I dig the Rays' farm.
Posted by: melonis rex | February 01, 2009 at 03:42 PM
Williams can always suprise you, but I really don't see any more big deals happening unless Dye is dealt. As for the rotation KW has stated the #4 spot is probally Colon's if he has any sort of decent ST. What else would you except with 3 young guys, the best will probably be #5.
Posted by: quentin2 | February 01, 2009 at 03:45 PM
Eric Patterson could play centerfield for the A's. He got some work there last year I believe and has some upside.
Posted by: RandomScrub | February 01, 2009 at 03:46 PM
"Eric Patterson could play centerfield for the A's. He got some work there last year I believe and has some upside."
I would like to think that Ryan Sweeney will easiy outperform Eric Patterson.
Posted by: melonis rex | February 01, 2009 at 03:51 PM
I could, repeat, could see Floyd/Roberts going down still.
Posted by: melonis rex | February 01, 2009 at 03:52 PM
What happened to the objectivity of this website? Excuse me...but how do you leave off the Cardinals in "some of the more interesting position battles?" I am sure that Perrotto article listed the Cardinals closer and 3B positions.
The Cards are having a major battle to solve the 2008 worst closing problem of any .500 team (32 blown saves). Similarly, Glaus is down so the only starting 3B job is open out of all the winning teams from 2008. A 2008 draftee with only 2 months of pro ball experience will be battling for the position as well, to boot!
Tampa Bay closing situation makes that list? Are you kidding me? There is not even a competition right now! Until Percival shows he cannot handle the duties, there is no competition!
I am not saying that some of these battles are not interesting. In fact, the White Sox one is huge and is imperative to their team. All I am saying is that the 1B/RF/DH positions for Oakland does not belong on that list and neither does the TB closer competition...because it is non-existent. There is no competition BIGGER than the Cards closing situation given their 2008 problem. The White Sox can match that and say they have 2 rotation spots open, which is just as important. Those 2 make the top 3. I do not know what the other would be. Detroit has an interesting situation with their rotation. That will be big for them.
Anyways, I just thought I would note how some of these new article writers are injecting some extra subjectivity into their posts. I know Tim is a Cubs fan but he mostly does not allow it to affect his posts.
Posted by: JBCardsFan | February 01, 2009 at 04:12 PM
Forgive me, I forgot that the Indians had an open 3B position and that they had gotten to .500 by season's end.
Posted by: JBCardsFan | February 01, 2009 at 04:15 PM
"Forgive me, I forgot that the Indians had an open 3B position and that they had gotten to .500 by season's end."
I'm sorry JB, we can't forgive you for an error like that. Total lack of objectivity...
Posted by: iamnobody | February 01, 2009 at 04:17 PM
"I could, repeat, could see Floyd/Roberts going down still."
Agreed, but another move has to come before it that gives the Sox a SP whether it's via trade or Free Agency. I can't see Kenny pulling the trigger and only being left with 2 proven SP's.
Posted by: ChiSoxKilla23 | February 01, 2009 at 04:27 PM
Roberts needs to be traded in my opinion. Here's my argument. Basically it comes down to 1 of 4 scenarios:
1. Trade him now: The problem with this move is that as long as O-Cab is out there, Roberts will be a secondary option because Roberts will cost young talent. The problem with O-Cab is that he's a borderline Type A player who would cost a team a compensation pick, making plenty of teams to pause until his price drops to the point where he's suddenly a "bargain." A lot of other FAs may need to sign before OCab does, and injuries in ST may create more demand for OCab, therefore it makes it's much more unlikely to see Roberts traded before the season starts. It just sounds like waay too much needs to happen.
2. Trade him midseason: Roberts has a long track record of stolen bases, doubles power, and OBP and has outlasted many other elite leadoff guys who have faded. Starting off the season normally will reassure the few cautious skeptics out there. Injuries at 2B around the league may also create demand as well. We need to remember that without Chase out there for the start of the season, in spite of being completely different types of player, Roberts may be the best 2B in the league, and having that guy available will be very attractive. All-star caliber Up-the-middle defense and leadoff bat is impossible to find just lying around.
3. Extend him now: The problem here is that all reports seem to have MacPhail targetting a 3-YR plan, and, Roberts is asking for a 4th year. There may be some wiggle room here with options and such though. The bottomline is that there is extreme popular support from outside and inside the Warehouse to make this happen. The Orioles are well funded and have plenty of flexibility to extend Roberts if they want to so it's a question of will. MacPhail so far has held an extremely disciplined management style that holds itself against a larger book. This is just a chapter. He has not signed ONE player around age 30 or over to multiyear deals at premium levels. If he's able to pass on Teixeira, trade Tejada, trade Bedard, I don't see why he would make an exception for Roberts. He's not running a Summer Camp.
4. Take the draft pick: If this were a contending team then taking a draft pick would be a major loss. And in all honesty, as great a player Roberts is, as elite a leadoff man he is, as good an all-around player he is, he is not Jim Palmer or Frank Robinson in their prime. Losing an MVP or CY caliber type players with nothing more than draft picks would be a net loss, but if Roberts turns into a #15-30 overall pick, for a rebuilding team who has shown an uncanny ability to draft well and find sleepers in the middle rounds of late, having a super-charged draft signing budget, it may not be so bad. Some of their better pitching prospects were taken 2-6th rounds. Having an extra 1st rounder might make the annual pitcher vs. Hitter argument moot.
All in all, since Roberts has said he won't talk extension once the season starts, and circumstances make it unlikely that he'll get traded before April, he's likely going to leave Baltimore. O's fans better be willing to maybe accept that. So the question is primarily based on HOW he leaves, midseason or by Free Agency. Either of which ain't so bad for Baltimore. I think MacPhail should be selecting the greater of two forms, the offers in July vs. the possible #15-30 draft pick.
Posted by: basemonkey | February 01, 2009 at 04:36 PM
The downside to FA comp on Roberts is that it could easily be a 2nd rd pick. Half of the teams have their 1st rd pick protected and it's possible that a team could sign more than 1 type A FA (like the Yankees this year).
Posted by: kab21 | February 01, 2009 at 05:18 PM
Trading Roberts now wouldn't be a good idea but midseason everything could change. A team could come up with some real need's of the O's (ss,3b,1b,nice prospect and pitcher along with infield help).Now if roberts is gone who would you consider batting 1st? Jones,Pie,?Seems to be another big hole to fill.I feel with the younger pitching a solid line up would be a serious need which it all comes down to run support.I say the O's should be ready to make some noise by 2011 and play close to 5oo ball in 2010.I can't see all the O's arms being a bust. The Orioles start winning and putting a few free agent's in the mix it will all come together.The money is there,maybe not Newyork money.Like I said we have to score run's for the pitching to get better and have more gut's to go after the hitter's.Sign Roberts 3yrs with an option, watch closely knowing Roberts could be moved if things are going to take longer then expecting with contending.If Roberts was moved now who would bat 1st?
Posted by: OUTL@W]EC[ | February 01, 2009 at 05:24 PM
If Roberts is gone, we bat someone else first. Anyone with good contact rate, speed, and OBP skills can manage it. It'd be hard to hit a young guy there because they tend to K a lot. So Jones and Pie would be out for now. Markakis would be able to handle it very well but his potent bat would be wasted there. That being said, the majority of MLB offenses do not have legit leadoff men. We've just been spoiled with Roberts, but it's not an absolute necessity for a rebuilding club if it means we can fill other scarcer or multiple needs.
If Roberts is going to leave anyways we better look into the options. It just boggles my mind how many Os fans get so attached to a particular player, who speaks so well of his cub, but when it's their time to be a Free Agent, they start straddling that line, and suddenly they're shocked or surprised that they actually left. Roberts has said that he will stop negotiations once the season starts. That's not an indication of what he plans to do, and it's quite reasonable. But, it's also the same kind of thing said by many former Orioles who eventually left Baltimore entering their contract year.
Posted by: basemonkey | February 01, 2009 at 07:40 PM
Thank you.
And for what it's worth, I write for a living, so I'm sure the vast majority of your readers didn't have any issues with your wording the way a word-nazi like myself did.
Posted by: hailmatty | February 02, 2009 at 01:21 AM
hailmatty, who are you referring to? And, was that sarcasm?
Posted by: basemonkey | February 02, 2009 at 10:00 AM
he made a post earlier complaining about word choice and i guess they fixed it
Posted by: iamnobody | February 02, 2009 at 10:14 AM
Roberts is a good keep for the O's (fan favorite, adds respectability), but also a good trade chip (possibly elite prospects at the trade deadline).
I think the O's are right to sign him, but also right to shop him.
Posted by: The Globalizer | February 02, 2009 at 01:04 PM