Brett Myers Hopes To Stay With Phillies

10 years in the MLB + last 5 years with the same team = block any proposed trade

He'll Stay If:
-He wins 12+ Games
-He doesn't suffer any bad injuries
-He out shines 3 of the 4 other starters
He'll Leave If:
-The Phillies Trade for a big name starter (Oswalt, Halladay)
-If they have to send him down to the minors
-If Park/Happ/Kendrick (who ever loses the 5th spot competition) pitches better

Off topic but why aren't the Phils putting Myers into the bullpen as a setup man and putting a combination of Happ/Park Happ/Kendrick or Park/Kendrick into the rotation? Then they can trade a righty reliever for a lefty. It'll make the rotation competition easier for the coaching staff and Myers (who wants to be in the bullpen) will be happier.

Schilling, he had a bad first half of the year last year because "he forgot how to be a starter" he then went to AAA and "learned how to be a starter again." He came back from AAA and was terrific for the most part. Putting Myers back in the bullpen after all that crap would be a stupid part on the Phillies. Why would you put a #2 starter in the bullpen? He is by FAR a much better option in the rotation than Happ or Park or Kendrick. The Phillies already have long relievers, especially ones that did a great job last year. "The Bridge to Lidge" was awesome last year too, like 89-0 after leading the 8th inning. Madson will be a fine set up man. No need to fix something that isn't broken. Myers didn't get his fat ass in shape to be in the bullpen and pitch less innings.

I don't want to piss off Phillies fans, but I think Myers is gone after 2009, regardless of how well he pitches.

I don't see why one of J.A. Happ/Kyle Kendrick can't secure the 5th spot and keep it to his name for the next 5 years or so for league minimum. Happ is more likely to be that guy, but who knows.

Then, you've got this guy in the minors, his name is Carlos Carrasco, and I've always seen him as a guy who we'll probably see in September '09 and almost definitely in 2010 unless he starts getting lit up. He's got #2 upside, maybe even higher, and it would be a stupid idea to block him with a multi year contract to Myers (since Hamels, Moyer, and Blanton are under control through the 2010 season). Then you have other arms like Drabek who could be vying for spots.

But then I never thought of Myers as that good a pitcher. He's a good MOR guy, but looking at next year's market, if Lackey hits the open market, Myers is the 2nd best pitcher on the market (factor in injury risk). He's going to get paid like a better pitcher than he is. And with Phillies payroll projected to go up next year, I'd rather have more rotation spots filled cheap.

"Wonder where Myers could end up after Lackey signs to wear pinstripes?"

I reeeally don't think Lackey is wearing pinstripes.

Although I really hope that he isn't wearing a uniform that has a halo on it after the '09 season. That's all.

melonis rex, I agree with everything you said except that Blanton is easily a better pitcher than Myers. 09 will settle that for us though I suppose. Is Cardenas making any progress?

"I'm not so sure that Blanton is easily the better pitcher. If he can get his walk rate back under 3.00 per 9, and his HR rate back under 1.00, then he's definitely a better pitcher. But he doesn't get a lot of groundballs (which was okay in Oakland but Philly won't be nearly as kind to him) and his strikeout rate is pretty pedestrian.

I'd put Blanton and Myers on the same level, although Blanton is maybe a little bit higher because Myers is a horrible human being (you just don't beat up your wife..)"

Blanton still gets more GB outs than FB outs. Career average of 35.4% flyballs, which isn't bad.

Myers strikes out more batters and has a slightly better K/BB though.

Blanton's FIPs have been consistently better than Myers's though.

Who do you Philly fans think plays 3B for Philly in 2010, btw. Jason Donald or a FA (Beltre)?

Donald hasn't looked that hot so far in Spring Training but there's still a month to go...

Really? A guy who has never won more than 14 games wants AJ Burnett money? He should be THRILLED if some team offers him Gil Meche money (55/5) and jump for joy. This guy may be th emost overrated pitcher in baseball.

Is it me or do melonis rex and scribbles have the same voice? Maybe that's a complement? Or maybe it's some freakish Michael and LaToya Jackson blog ploy? Hmmm...

First, no way is Blanton "easily" a better pitcher than Myers. Myers has more upside he has the stuff to be a solid number 2 (could be a 1 with his stuff but his control will never allow it), and Blanton may be more consitent then Myers, but he doesn't have that upside, he is at best an above average number 3 starter. Melonis, I know you are partial to your A's guys but you missed the mark on that one.

As far as the question of who's playing third for Phils next year, Feliz's contract for next year is an option, so if the Phils want to add anything of substance they will most likely have to decline that option and let Donald play third. The only way I see Beltre at third is if the Phils trade Howard. That would open up some funds and allow them to better their defense while balancing their offense.

There's no way the Phillies trade Howard at this point. That ship has sailed.

Never said I thought they would mford, I believe Howard will be there for the remainder of his contract. I just said I can't see them adding anyone without moving him. I think the contract he signed means its highly likely Feliz is gone in 2010. Since by buying out Feliz and playing Donald they can save roughly 4Mil. With their payroll already at 132M and raises due to Howard, Utley, Ibanez, Hamels, and Werth I can't see where the money would come from to resign Myers or add anyone else. I know Jenkins and Eaton are coming off the books, but thats basically a wash with the raises thst Blanton and Victorino will get in Arbitration. To keep Myers they'd most likely have to hit 140M for their payroll, and I can't see why they'd do that for him. My guess is if the Phils don't win or atleast get to the Series again this year, you will most likely be waving goodbye to Myers and Feliz after this season.

"Who do you Philly fans think plays 3B for Philly in 2010, btw. Jason Donald or a FA (Beltre)?"

I think the Phils will probably go internally at third, or at the very least I wouldn't expect any legitimate pursuit of Beltre.

Beltre is a fantastic player, but I think he'll likely command a deal larger than one the Phils ought to pay.

They already have Utley, Howard, Ibanez and Rollins all signed through 2011, but Howard and Ibanez are both paid quite handsomely.

Considering the big numbers Hamels and Blanton will likely see in arbitration, as well as the fact that Blanton hits FA soon, and I just don't see the Phillies spending $10M+ on a third baseman.

They'll need money to resign Blanton after 2010 and Rollins after 2011, and with their numerous young prospects I see little reason to spend big on another hitter.

"There's no way Myers is in the running for the 2nd best starter what aout Brandon Webb and Rich harden who I think might be better than Lackey. But then again Webb won 22 games last year. So I think Webb is the best free agent starter next year."

Webb has a club option for 2010 that is almost a guarantee to be exercised.

He won't be a free agent next winter.

As for Harden, those health issues are REALLY scary. Look at what Sheets' health issues did to his value. He was looking at short term deals that were fractions of the offers that lesser, healthier pitchers received.

"This year we really saw most of the cutbacks for FA effect hitters. For the most part the market for SP remains pretty healthy. A guy like Myers, if he's coming off of a good walk year, will command somewhere between $10-$15 mil easy. He's more dominant than Garland who'll make 10 mil in 2010 if his option is picked up. He's much younger @ 29 than Lowe (35) who's avg 15 mil per and has been just as durable as a SP delivering 30+ starts since 2003 w/ the exception of 2007 when he came out the bullpen. And he's more consistant than Perez who's making 12 mil per. I could see him getting 4/50 to 5/65 easy."

I completely agree.

If he pitches decently, absolute WORST case scenario is that he gets an Oliver Perez deal (3/36). And remember, Ollie was only the 4th best SP on the market, behind CC, AJ, and Lowe. Myers will hopefully be the 2nd best SP on the market. The higher you are on the pecking order, the less likely you're to see cuts. The top pitchers and hitters still got the big cheese (Teixeira, Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe, Manny when signed). There were just so many OF/DH types with such similar skillsets on the market that the market depressed (exception being Manny, of course) severely.

Myers will easily command a Silva deal (4/48) at minimum.

"If Harden throws 200+ this year AND finishes the season healthy, I think he'll get a big deal. See Jason Schmidt. It will just be downright moronic."

Yeah..

I'm a Cubs fan, so I'm as optimistic as anyone about Harden's health.

But if the Cubs give him something like 3/48 this winter, then I'm going to be really mad.

Look at how the Schmidt contract worked out. It's just not worth the risk.

"Myers will easily command a Silva deal (4/48) at minimum."

Honestly, I think you can scrap the Silva contract in terms of comparing contracts given to pitchers. That deal was so out of line with the market and it simply doesn't reflect anything near the way the market really is.

I agree that Myers probably gets something around there (4 years, $48-60M) if he pitches well, I'm just not really convinced that it'll be a good deal for whoever signs him.

"Is it me or do melonis rex and scribbles have the same voice? Maybe that's a complement? Or maybe it's some freakish Michael and LaToya Jackson blog ploy? Hmmm..."

Hahahahahaha.

"Your probably right melonis, but I'd like to think somebody paid attention to how well that deal has worked out for LA."

Nobody really has paid attention to how well Hampton worked out though.

Past deals haven't really placed a damper on the FA market going forward.

"But if the Cubs give him something like 3/48 this winter, then I'm going to be really mad."

I really see the Cubs as a big suitor for a SP. You're a Cubs fan, do you? Not Lackey, due to payroll issues, but probably one of Harden/Myers.

I don't know if the Cubs would be willing to go with Marshall and Gaudin anchoring two spots in their rotation, which also gets ugly if Zambrano/Dempster get hurt. I think Samardijija ends up a reliever.

Melonis-

I pretty much agree with your whole assessment. With Lilly's deal expiring after 2010, the Cubs will probably want another starter locked in beyond Zambrano, Dempster and Marshall. I don't think they go big after Lackey either though, he'll just want too much. I think a Myers/Harden/Duchscherer signing is a very very legitimate possibility for next winter, barring some crazy breakout by Samardzija, which would shock me.

If you're a team with a decent front rotation it makes more sense to go after a good #3 or #4 in winter 09 to get you thru the 2010 season and then splurge for a big name FA SP in winter of 2010 when you may have a much better class of SP like:

Beckett
Webb
Lee
Chein-Ming Wang
Roy Halliday
Jeremy Bonderman

melonis rex, I think it'll be Jason Donald or Pedro Feliz next year. Beltre will get more intrest from teams like the Giants or Twins. (Crede signed a one year deal right?) Feliz's injury and performance will determine if he stays or goes.
I like Donald, he has a ton of potential. From the few games I saw during spring training, he was playing great.

"I like Donald, he has a ton of potential. From the few games I saw during spring training, he was playing great."

Donald is batting below the Mendoza line and has been striking out a lot. His defense is great, and it's still early in ST, but he needs to start hitting a little better to be a lock. You're right though, the potential is there.

"Brett Meyers, Victorino, & Donald for Vernon Wells and a P?"

Are you freaking joking?

Like really, was this serious?

The Phillies are going to trade Myers, Victorino and Donald to the Blue Jays so they can pay Vernon Wells $100M over the next six seasons?

I wouldn't trade Victorino straight up for Wells.

The only way the Blue Jays come close to trading Wells is if they take back a different, almost as brutal contract.

Wells posted a horrid -13.7 UZR in 2008, although it was his first time being below average since 2003. Considering he's not exactly a great hitter, I simply see no way that any team would take on Wells' contract in this economy.

The Blue Jays would make that deal before Amaro even finished saying Myers' name.

I still think the Diamondbacks figure out a way to bring Webb back, he's too good to just let him go.

As for Halladay, I think he might get traded, but otherwise I agree that he could walk. That Vernon Wells contract is going to really start to KILLLL this team financially in the final four years of the deal. From 2011-2014, the guy makes $86M!!!!! How the hell did anyone let Ricciardi make this deal?

Meyers may have never panned out to be the number 1 we wanted, but he has the intensity Philadelphians like. Do we all remember the time he threw a pitch behind Manny in the 1st inning? Even Manny saud he wished he had a pitcher like that on his team.