Odds & Ends: Hamels, Giants, Yankees

Igawa's posted pretty decent numbers in AAA, even if it's unclear what that indicates.

He posted solid sub 4.00 FIP's in his stints there each season, and his peripherals are pretty solid.

He's still a potential LH fifth starter, I just doubt many teams would pay much to bring him in.

Kelric-

Why would a team like the Pirates pay $3M for a potential back of the rotation starter, when those kind of guys are avaiable at league minimum?

They might as well give the job to Jeff Karstens or Phil Dumatrait, save the cash for a different player or the draft, and move on.

its easy to have a tight bond this early in the season when nothing is wrong, everyone is excited to start the season and expectations are high. but what will happen when finger are starting to point, when the losses come, when the media gets involved. then how close will the "5 muskateers" be?

that one trick pony of a rotation dominated in the playoffs. read the article it explains everything. apparently this problem happens every spring. and its not while he is throwing its after he throws that he feels a little tightness. no reason to jump off a bridge....yet.

if hamels was ever lost then the season is in trouble, but that being said those that say he career is in jeopardy are idiots or fans of one of the Phils compeititors. There is no speculation in that regard.

4 million a year for a starting pitcher? Thats dirt cheap! All 30 clubs in the league would find that moveable. I think Igawa is worth a cheap gamble. Trouble is all the clubs want the yankees to pay some of his salary.

Look at Zito, Zambrano banking 18+ million a year if you need further proof.

Optionn - $4 million is not cheap for a guy who has had virtually no success as a starter in the big leagues! Igawa had okay numbers is AAA ball but you can easily find several dozen guys with similar numbers who will be a lot cheaper than Igawa.

If the Yankees want to move Igawa they will have to pay most of the remaining contract. You may think Igawa is a cheap gamble but it is quite evident that none of the teams agree with you.

"Igawa had okay numbers is AAA ball but you can easily find several dozen guys with similar numbers who will be a lot cheaper than Igawa".

14-6 with a 3.45 era and a 1.19 WHIP is a little better than "OK" numbers. That's pretty decent.

The problem with Igawa is this: Does he just need further instruction, a change of scenery out of the NY spotlight....or does he just not have ML stuff?

My opinion: The guy knows HOW to pitch...but hasn't realized yet that you can't live up in the zone to ML hitters like you can in Japan. Those hangin sliders will get crushed at this level. His stuff is not overpowering...he needs to locate to be successful.

Send him to a smaller market team who's media is not bashing him every start (or saying we should have had Lilly...or spent more for Dice K) and hook him up with a stud pitching coach and he has a chance to turn things around. I agree that the Yankees would either have to eat money or get a sack of oranges back to deal him though.

Hamels and Igawa in the same column. Title should read "Stud vs. Dud"!

"Can someone explain the logic/thought process to make one think that soreness in an elbow during spring training equates to a short MLB career? Sheesh..."

I thought the tagline would explain it all:

-#1 in pitches thrown in mlb
-sore arm the next year

it aint rocket surgery buddy. pitcher abuse is a serious issue, and yeah the Phils got their rings out of it and congrats, but pitch counts are there for a reason, over time statistics show that: high pitch counts = years off careers.

two years ago he had similar issues in August and they sat him for a month and he was fine. The year after that he threw those innings you spoke of.

And exactly how do your statistics if you profess them to be applicable to all explain Nolan Ryan and Greg Maddux for example? Cole doesn't throw overly hard either.

"14-6 with a 3.45 era and a 1.19 WHIP is a little better than "OK" numbers. That's pretty decent."

Right. But his peripherals, which are far more indicative of future MLB performance, weren't nearly as impressive. His 3.89 FIP is solid, but his strikeout rate isn't too impressive and hitters posted a fairly low BABIP against him. Unless he starts to strike out more hitters, or get more groundballs, he'll continue to get knocked around because his stuff isn't close to good enough to overpower MLB hitters.

"yes he had a career use year but to go from there to END HIS CAREER is dumb."

Outside of the playoffs, Hamels didn't exactly have a "career year". His FIP was only slightly lower than it was in 2007, and that was essentially thanks to his slightly lower HR allowed rate. Otherwise, he showed no improvement to his walk rate, and actually struck out less hitters than the previous season.

Hamels had a great year, and his playoff performance is simply brilliant (2.93 FIP in 42 innings is sick), but defining 2008 as a career year is likely an overstatement.

"Right. But his peripherals, which are far more indicative of future MLB performance, weren't nearly as impressive. His 3.89 FIP is solid, but his strikeout rate isn't too impressive and hitters posted a fairly low BABIP against him. Unless he starts to strike out more hitters, or get more groundballs, he'll continue to get knocked around because his stuff isn't close to good enough to overpower MLB hitters".

NOW...What I wrote: "My opinion: The guy knows HOW to pitch...but hasn't realized yet that you can't live up in the zone to ML hitters like you can in Japan. Those hangin sliders will get crushed at this level. His stuff is not overpowering...he needs to locate to be successful".

That's the problem with this site...instead of people actually READING someone else's post...they can't wait to slam them with their counterpoint.

You're the second dude that JUST read that first sentence and nothing else.

"That's the problem with this site...instead of people actually READING someone else's post...they can't wait to slam them with their counterpoint."

When did I ever disagree with you?

I was simply contending that you're putting too much into his AAA numbers, because they're not as impressive when you dig deeper, and they don't necessarily indicate that he'll ever be an adequate starter in the majors.

And I didn't acknowledge your scouting opinion because I don't believe that you're a scout, and I'm not sure how that analysis could possibly be credible. I can't agree or disagree with any of the statement because I have no basis for agreeing or disagreeing.

"Send him to a smaller market team who's media is not bashing him every start (or saying we should have had Lilly...or spent more for Dice K) and hook him up with a stud pitching coach and he has a chance to turn things around. I agree that the Yankees would either have to eat money or get a sack of oranges back to deal him though."

I agree with most of this, I just question whether there is really that much upside for him to turn around to. Even if he puts it all together, is Igawa really much better than a decent fifth starter? From his AAA numbers and scouting reports, it doesn't seem like Igawa is capable of being much better.

"And I didn't acknowledge your scouting opinion because I don't believe that you're a scout, and I'm not sure how that analysis could possibly be credible".

I pitched in HS, college and the minors before shredding my shoulder. However, you don't need to be a former pitcher to see that he throws in the 89-92 range...has a decent slider...but locates poorly and hangs too many in the strike-zone. All you need is to put down the stat sheet...watch and understand the game!

Found it. Incase anyone is interested.

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2008/09/number-of-pitch.html

@PhilsWS champs

I didnt say his career was over as of NOW. I meant instead of being effective for 12-15 more years, it will only be 7-10 now. Cole's a great talent, but if he keeps popping up in the 3400 club it wont help his chances.

@YanksFanSince78

"Sure, there's no need for a pitcher to pitch 240+++ innings this day, especially if you have a decent bullpen and a good closer."

It has nothing to do with actual innings, if you can throw a 70 pitch 9 inning CG like Maddux did, then thats awesome.

"I think that's the biggest crock of cow dung ever. However, look back in time. Blyleven, Ryan, Seaver, Gibson, Marichal, Jenkins, Carlton, Palmer, etc. All great pitchers that threw 230+ innings just about every year and never had any serious arm problems."

Of course its "cow dung" when you list off the minority of players who didnt have that problem. Why not bring up JR Richard, Mark Fydrich, Carl Pavano, Mark Mulder, Mike Hampton and the hundreds, if not thousands of players who had their careers cut short due to injury?

Its easy to point out HOFers, I love the old style thought of "oh, welp, he blew out his arm, he's done" with no thought as to WHY they are hurt? Its so often because of pitch count abuse its ridiculous. The reasons why SP's need to not throw as much are many and varied, and honestly, you should know about them by now. I shouldnt have to get into the residual effects of the steroid era, the advent of the parks where the Rockies and Rangers play, not to mention probably the most important reason: MONEY. The game is a billion dollar industry now when it wasnt before, these guys need to be treated better. All that said, there's just so many reasons why SP's shouldnt break 3400 pitches if they are starting 34-36 games in a season these days.

"Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker asks if Yankees starter Kei Igawa, owed $12MM over the next three years, is movable."

I'm guessing he could be traded for Dontrelle Willis.

That was a cheap shot. You people are pathetic. Just because you played ball for a couple years doesn't make you a freaking expert. It's like you people think that I ignore every aspect of the game but the statistical one.

I fully understand the game, but I hold no credibility by simply stating that. Statistics and hard evidence have legitimate credibility, whereas nothing else said on this site does.

And by the way, I don't like fantasy baseball. Who the helll cares about counting RBIs, runs and batting averages. I'd like to use some statistics that actually properly reflect a players' value.

People shouldn't get so defensive when intellect makes it's way into the game. I could sit here and talk about hanging sliders and keeping the ball down, but why would anyone believe me? This is so damn simple..

Lol at Tavarez's J-Lo comparison.

"Re-read my post and it will answer you own questions."

The post that states: "My opinion: The guy knows HOW to pitch"?

You're basically saying that just because your own opinion says he knows how to pitch, some other team will waste millions of dollars on someone that, statistically speaking, is no better than a "gimmick knuckleballer."

So unless Igawa can somehow translate those stats to the Majors (which is very unlikely considering his peripheral stats) no one is going to pay anything for him except the Yankees.

Ok, a few things. I am sooooo tired of hearing people diminish the importance of a statistic like batting average. CLearly, rbi and runs scored are all subjective stats. Clearly OBP is a more "complete" statistic which measure a hitters ability to get on base. But what is OBP other than a hitters batting average + their demonstrated ability to draw a walk? Using batting avg, alone, to equate a players worth is a mistake, but to say that a stat which measure a players ability to hit safely is irrelevant is absolutely false. What measures a hitter's ability to hit safely, whether it's a single, double or homer, better that batting avg?

-Igawa

Clearly Igawa has "some" ability. He clearly didn't fare well in his limited mlb experiences (71 innings). But his pereipherals were very quirky to say the least. While his ko rate was 7/per 9 but his walk rate was 5/per 9 and he gave up 15 hrs in 71 inning. Clearly he's nibbling too much, leaving too many pitches in the fat part of the plate and probably has zero confidence in his ability to get mlb players out. Now, on the AAA level he's shown some ability:

.241 opponents bat avg
1.19 whip
His hr ratio per batter faced dropped from 1:5 to 1:10.

Now obviously this wasn't against mlb talent.

Igawa's AAA stats clearly show he deserves a second chance.....just not at $4 mil per. That is what is currently working against him right now. There's been a handfull of teams that have shown interest in Igawa but the Yanks would probably have to eat, at minimum, 75% of his contract or be traded for an equally horrible deal for him to get any oppurtunity above the AAA level to show what he can do. Right now, his pay stubb is a larger deterent against him pitching in AAA greater than his demonstrated performance.

"what about a deal of Pierre for Igawa? the dodgers pay the difference of the two contracts."

This actually makes a lot of sense, except for the part where the Dodgers send cash to the Yankees. The Yankees would have a late-inning defensive replacement for their lumbering left fielder and a little speed off the bench. The Dodgers would get a pitcher who might be able to hold his own against the AAAA competition in the NL West.

"Classic! This is almost verbatim what I said to scribbletone. He throws out all of these obscure stats instead of watching and understanding the game and the players. This is why I can't stand these fantasy dorks..."

Translation: who needs quantifiable facts when you can rely entirely on hearsay and intangibles?
__________________________

Wow...I can't beleive this argument is still going on. No one on this board is a scout. A modern day scout or personel evaluator should be able to use the best of both worlds. Stats w/o context means nothing. You might as well just refer to the back of their baseball cards or go to baseball cube for that matter. Stats, by themselves, can give you a good idea of a player but they mean nothing w/o seeing the player in a game situation. So the use of sabermetrics AND real life game evaluation are both important. Anyone, who sits here and proposes trades or conducts a player evaluation w/o seeing a guy play is simply "fantasy" playing. Fantasy might be fun but and I won't knock anyone for it, but keep things in perspective.

"4 million a year for a starting pitcher? Thats dirt cheap! All 30 clubs in the league would find that moveable. "

Well, it's also $4mill for a AAAA pitcher, the kind that typically goes for about 10% of that. And in that respect, he is not movable.

And if you doubt his immobility, then simple question - why is he still a Yankee?

i love it when people go on sites and say they're "someone". You know I used to be the King of England.

cheery-o