Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

Before anyone says it, it is Ryan Braun the pitcher - not the hitter.

thank you bengal, i was about to hit post, then i read your post.

I'd say it's pretty good assessment by Tim...

However, johns, crede and swish provided a very good 1 month each, that's about it. Javy once again provided broken promise, besides his typically consistent large work load. OC and Uribe did a lot for the team last year. But I think they are replaceable and that we'll be a fairly good team in 2009. 90 wins? Absolutely not. 85 or so, definitely possible.

tdogg - I do understand that, which is why the Sox customarily beat the projections. 85-86 wins keeps them in contention all year.

"The player losses for this team seem far more impressive than the player gains. Crede, Vasquez, Swisher, OC and Uribe. Vs Colon and Betemit is not a good +/- ratio, plus no CF."

I predict in 09 that Fields and Getz will produce better than the 08 Cabrera and Uribe/Crede combo. If the Sox get 30 starts out of Contreras/Colon plus Richard at #5 that will be a better rotation than with Vazquez, who almost single handedly took the Sox out of contention last year. CF will be an offensive blackhole but the defense will be markedly improved with Anderson out there. I think this team is better this year.

How is CF not going to be black hole? None of those guys will sniff at an OPS of 750 or higher.

Brian Anderson posted an OPS+ of 81 (overall OPS of 708). That's a replacement level player? Over his career of 600 ML AB's the guy has never hit above 232, doesn't walk much, and has minimal power.

Wise turns 31 this year. The most AB's collected over a season is 162. His career OPS is 639. He has yet to hit 250 or have an OBP higher than 300 in any season (other than his 5 AB season in 2007). He did manage to post a career 732 OPS over his 3500+ career MiL AB's. Should give you hope for improvement. If he can raise his game to his minor league levels he might not be the worst player in the game.

Seriously, when the conversation starts with acknowledging that Melky Cabrera would represent a positional upgrade you know the team is in trouble.

"I'm always puzzled by these types of statements. May regress, sure. Could regress based on key performance indicators, ok. But sure to regress - that's an example of someone taking a stat sheet too seriously."

Keep in mind that this is coming from a Chicago fan.

Floyd's performance last year was based around luck, and every statistic avaiable supports that notion.

When a guy posts a 4.77 FIP, 3.05 BB/9, and 1.31 HR/9, then the only way he gets to go 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA is luck.

Batters posted a .268 BABIP against him, which is TOTALLY out of line with the mean.

If he pitched the exact same way last year and was unlucky, he easily could have posted a mid-to-high 4's ERA.

Javy Vazquez was a much better pitcher than Floyd, but simply got hit by awful luck and didn't get along with Ozzie.

There's no reason to believe that Floyd can maintain a 3.84 ERA without making some serious strides.

If the White Sox score 820 runs and hold steady at least year's 729 allowed, they'll be projected to win 90 games. Is that level of run prevention (7th in the AL) possible again?'

dont want to be an @ss, but i think you meant 'hold steady at last year's..."

"I understand all that - but those are performance indicators, not actual performace."

Right.

And those indicators indicate that Floyd's actual performance will regress.

meant to say as long as Getz ISNT the next coming of BA at the plate in my post above

"I understand all that - but those are performance indicators, not actual performace."

Right.

And those indicators indicate that Floyd's actual performance will regress.

Posted by: scribbletone | March 27, 2009 at 03:40 PM

Scribble is right here. I don't have the exact numbers and i'm sure everyone at this site knows, I'm not very good at all with the inside stats, but it has something to do with balls put in play to avg against i want to say. Please don't anyone hold me to that.

"but I don't see anyway a contreras/colon platoon and richards at #5 is better then last year's rotation."

Somehow get Colon to lose about 30 pounds and he may be able to withstand a full season again. he was looking good for Boston last year and hitting the 94-95mph range with his FB, then got hit with a line drive and in the same game, was back around 90mph and never appeared again because his back got messed up, probably from being way overweight all the time.

Colon healthy and he could easily win a dozen games and anchor down a #4-5 spot for the Chisox though, but just don't think he can stay that way long enough.

With Dye and his bad knees in RF, whoever is playing CF is going to have to cover an awful lot of ground, that is yet another reason to approach NY regarding Cabrera. Sure, they can go on and use those AAAA guys for awhile that they have and try to limp along, but playing with a weak SS, or 2B is one thing, but limping along with a CF is different, especially when you already have a team that is playing with guys like Konerko, Thome and Dye that are old and no telling when an injury is going to drag them down onto the DL and create another hole to fill.

I think Floyd having an ERA of 5.00 is unlikely. I'm thinking more of 4.30.

To the guy deadset on the idea that the CF position is fine, neither of DeWayne Wise nor Brian Anderson have ever posted an OPS between .725-.735. You say Melky Cabrera wouldn't be an upgrade, but he had his first "bad" season last year, is 24 years old (thus room to improve) and has at least shown he can post a respectable average (see: 2006/2007)

"I see the sox finishing 4th and winning between 76-81 game"

Posted by: xxgochisox09 | March 27, 2009 at 03:41 PM

4th??? You really think their are 3 teams that are really much better than the sox in the central. The Tigers pitching staff is still bad, and adding E Jackson isn't actually a great upgrade. The Indians need to get solid production from both V Martinez and Hafner which a Victor Martinez bounceback is possible, but Hafner looks doubtful to return to old form, Grady Sizemore can't carry the entire load. When you look at their pitching Lee will likely need to produce similar numbers, since after him and Carmona their is a pretty big drop off. The Twins have good pitching but their anorexic offensive over preformed last year and with Mauer's recent health problems if he goes down for any significant time that's a huge blow right there. The Sox have a few question marks but if we can get pretty good production out of the 4 and 5 spot in the rotation and offensive and bullpen is solid enough to easily keep us in the hunt for the entire season.

"I see the sox finishing 4th and winning between 76-81 game"

Posted by: xxgochisox09 | March 27, 2009 at 03:41 PM

4th??? You really think their are 3 teams that are really much better than the sox in the central. The Tigers pitching staff is still bad, and adding E Jackson isn't actually a great upgrade. The Indians need to get solid production from both V Martinez and Hafner which a Victor Martinez bounceback is possible, but Hafner looks doubtful to return to old form, Grady Sizemore can't carry the entire load. When you look at their pitching Lee will likely need to produce similar numbers, since after him and Carmona their is a pretty big drop off. The Twins have good pitching but their anorexic offensive over preformed last year and with Mauer's recent health problems if he goes down for any significant time that's a huge blow right there. The Sox have a few question marks but if we can get pretty good production out of the 4 and 5 spot in the rotation and offensive and bullpen is solid enough to easily keep us in the hunt for the entire season.

Posted by: quentin2 | March 27, 2009 at 04:33 PM

Quentin,

I don't think there are three times that are that much better then the white sox, and I do think the sox will be in the hunt most of the year. I should've gone into detail when i picked the number of wins and said they would finish fourth. I think the AL Central will be the closest division top to bottom this year. I don't think there is one team that is alot better or worse then the others. Basically this division is a big pile of mediocre. I see the division breaking down with whoever wins it (I'm picking the Indians as of right now) winning around 85-88 games and whoever finishes fourth (the white sox in my opinion) finishing within 10 games of the division winner.

I think your assessment if off too on the other central teams. The Indians... you're partially right about their rotation pitching (btw who do the sox have besides Buerhle and Danks?) While i don't think Lee will have as good a year as last year, I don't think Carmona will be anywhere near as bad as he was either. The guy won 8 games and had an ERA in the mid 5's. He's got alot better stuff then that, and if he's healthy he will show it. The Indians bullpen will also be alot better this year having a real closer in kerry wood. I think it would be helpful if both Martinez and Hafner came back for them, but not necessary for them to win the division. DeRosa, Peralta, Choo, and even Shoppach showed he had some pretty good pop last year. You are right about Martinez he has looked like he is back and if he is, other then Sizemore he is probably the best all around hitter in that lineup. To me the Indians have the best mix of speed and power in the division.

The Twins..You are correct they have good pitching. I look for it to be even better this year with Liriano back a full year from surgery. While their offense isn't great, I think they have some guys that could improve this year or at the very least do what they did last year. For them Mauer's health is the key. The Twins also have a pretty good bullpen and in my opinion the best mgr in the division.

The Tigers...health is their wild card. They have probably the best offense in the division when everyone is healthy. If Sheffield can rebound from a bad year last year, they definitely do.

Pitching wise they arent great, but I don't think is bad as you make it sound. Verlander like most of the Tigers had an awful year last year.. He had 2 excellent years before that, and being that he is 26, I think will rebound this year. Armando Gallaraga is their #2 and although last year was his first good year, he has all the indicators like BA against, K and BB per 9 inning and groundball/flyball ratio that show he has a really good chance to have a similiar year this year. It also doesn't hurt when you play half your games in one of the better pitcher's parks in the game. Their bullpen is a huge question mark. We say this every year but if Zumaya and Rodney stay healthy...you know the rest.

So after reassessing everything... yeah I see the white sox finishing 4th and winning around 80 games. I see the Indians winning around 85-88 to win the division, the twins finishing second and the tigers third. I could possibly see the white sox jumping ahead of the tigers and finishing third, but then maybe they win 82 games instead of 80. I really believe this is going to be a tight race the whole year.

You completely ignored the Royals in that post, quentin...

Posted by: B3NG4L | March 27, 2009 at 04:37 PM

B3NG4L,

He did and so do I.. I still see the Royals finishing last. I know they are a popular pick to be better and I've even see a few people picking them to win the division and both of those picks are certainly alot more possible this year then a long time for them.

I think they have 2 really good starters in Meche and Greinke, but then I think their 3,4,5 and horrible. THey have a great closer, and signing cruz really helps their bullpen cause without him I think it's pretty mediocre.

The biggest problem I see with the Royals is I think they have too many guys that hit alot of HRs with a horrible OBP (jacobs 32 HRS, .299 obp, Guillen 20 HRs, .300 obp, Olivo 12 HRS pretty good for a catcher that played only 84 games and had 300 ABS, but he only had a .278 OBP) and then too many OBP guys that don't hit for much power. (DeJesus, Aviles, Crisp) I know this sounds weird to call it a problem, but when ends up happening when you have hr hitters with no obp and singles guys with high obp is.. it's hard to string together multi-run innings. You end up relying too much on the HR hitters to produce for your offense.

The Royals do have some guys like Butler and Gordon who could take steps forward this year, but I think their biggest problem is thie 3,4,5 starters and the huge splits in the offensive guys they have

When did I say CF is fine? I said it would not be a offensive black hole. Anderson is 27 & Wise 31. A platoon situation, yielding there best will net .725. Its really not a stretch.

If the White Sox can get a real upgrade at CF I'm all for it, but people seem to just take things for granted. Like the overall production from CF around MLB. On top of it, defense is not factored in I'll take the platoon's D over the minimal offensive upgrade from Melky.

"CF is fine. The biggest question mark is the back end of the rotation."

CF is not fine.

However, the back of that rotation is worse.

As a Braves fan, im reading your posts and it keeps saying things like our CF and end of rotation is week. Well we got what you need.

We have 3 (well, actually 2 since Jordan Schafer is off limits;Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco are available tho). We also have about 4 quality end of the rotation starters: Jojo Reyes, Jorge Campillo, Charlie Morton and James Parr. All are pretty young and fine as #5 starts. Reyes had a horrible year last year but has been a beast in ST. Campillo was 10-7 w/ a 3.80 era. Morton and Parr are both young righties.

THINK WE COULD WORK OUT A DEAL INVOLVING A CF AND A STARTER?

Can they contend and win the division in 09? Of course, but seems like they are looking more towards 2010 and 11, when the new minor league talent should be up, which may not be the best move with the division as winnable as it seems to be now. I would love to see them move quentin to 2nd in the order as well, with getz batting leadoff. It would allow them to mask the center field problem in the lineup a bit by hitting whoever it is 9th, having a high obp guy in quentin batting 2nd, and still have dye, thome, konerko, and alexei following him.

Can they contend and win the division in 09? Of course, but seems like they are looking more towards 2010 and 11, when the new minor league talent should be up, which may not be the best move with the division as winnable as it seems to be now. I would love to see them move quentin to 2nd in the order as well, with getz batting leadoff. It would allow them to mask the center field problem in the lineup a bit by hitting whoever it is 9th, having a high obp guy in quentin batting 2nd, and still have dye, thome, konerko, and alexei following him.

Posted by: SSSox | March 28, 2009 at 02:20 AM

SSSox,

I can definitely see them and this point think they should have Getz leadoff, but I don't know why you'd want to move Quentin from 3rd to 2nd. If Getz ends up not being able to hit, cause we know unless they make a move in CF it's going to be pretty likely whoever it is there (and youre correct hitting 9th) won't be able to hit worth a damn, so why would you want potentially 2 almost auto outs if Getz doesn't hit either. I think he actually will hit decent, but it's just a scenario. Plus Quentin is their best hitter and belongs #3.. I assume AJ will hit 2 again, and while he will never be confused as a great hitter, I think he actually fits pretty good in the #2 on this team. He's got some pop (since coming to the sox about 15 hrs) usually hits around .275 , and for the most part makes contact, seems like he can handle the bat decent, and isn't our fastest baserunner, but probably the best. (taking 2nd or 3rd on a ball in the dirt, 1st to 3rd on single)

The other thing I like with Quentin hitting third is it at least gives us someone in the middle of the order who isn't in a wheelchair running the bases.

I think their best order right now is and I'm not saying ozzie will do this, but its what i would do
Getz
AJ
Quentin
Dye
Thome
Konerko
Ramirez
Fields
Wise (i'm putting wise in cause assuming they platoon he will get most of the starts)

Actually looking at this lineup it probably is what Ozzie will end up doing.. I could see him leading Wise off (although i hope not) cause he did last year once in awhile and maybe he doesn't want a rookie leading off. The only thing I don't like about it is your 9,1,2 hitters all are lefty,but does it really matter what the 9 hitter/CF is? I really don't think so. I could see a scenario, that if whoever is leading off isn't getting on base at all. Ozzie putting Ramirez at leadoff (I know definitely not the perfect fit) but he's got some speed and with his first pitch guess fastball, swing whatever it is mentality... he probably could get you a few cheap hrs early in games. With Fields hopefully hitting around what he did in 07, I guess if you had to you could move Ramirez up and still have some pop towards the bottom of the order... let me make it clear neither of these are ideal, just guessing what will happen orignally and could happen if that fails

"Well if the Sox have a 3rd base prospect of any kind (well he has to be decent anyways) im sure the Bravos would be all over him."

They do - but no one is getting Dayan Viciedo.

BTW - Floyd looked unhittable on Sat vs the Dodgers. And I'm not talking about his line - I'm talking about a ridiculous curve with which he struck out 7 - 5 looking (in 6 innings)