Heyman On Adrian Gonzalez, Peavy, Sabathia

"Heyman believes the Padres could bring in a haul for Adrian Gonzalez beyond what the Rangers received for Mark Teixeira."

What?

How the hell can he say that?

The Padres are going to land MORE than Saltalamacchia, Feliz, Andrus, Harrison and Jones?

You're saying they're going to get more than a top catching prospect, a top shortstop prospect, two high quality pitching prospects and an additional lesser pitching prospect?

The Braves gave up more in that package than any single package dealt since the Sizemore/Lee/Phillips for Colon deal, and in time their package could potentially prove to be even more impressive.

I'm getting really close to that point where I want to petition to have Jon Heyman removed from SI's writing staff.

Heyman is fine as a reporter, he can land big stories and scoops, but his baseball writing and analysis are closing in on Steve Phillipsian awfulness.

Was going to post the same, Scribbletone. If Heyman meant more than one top 20 prospect, one high probability arm and two long-range upside guys, fine. But if he meant what that package has actually turned into, he's crazy. First, most teams don't have that to offer. Second, if they did, they wouldn't.

"I'm getting really close to that point where I want to petition to have Jon Heyman removed from SI's writing staff."

Adrian Gonzalez is the same quality of player Tex is. On top of that he is younger and much cheaper for a lot longer. Tell me why he shouldn't be worth more?

"Adrian Gonzalez is the same quality of player Tex is. On top of that he is younger and much cheaper for a lot longer. Tell me why he shouldn't be worth more?"

Because the Rangers didn't land fair value for Teixeira. They got more than fair value. They absolutely raped Atlanta's farm system, which is why the current state of their system is so freaking impressive.

To say that the Padres would land even more than that ludicrous haul for Gonzalez is simply silly, and in my opinion it's really poor analysis.

They wont get what Texas got and that's why they won't trade him. The Tex deal looks a lot better now than it did when it happened. They were just fortunate of how those players are producing.

Which is why Heyman's comment makes little sense.

"The Yankees paid $21m more than the next supposed closest bidder. That doesn't seem appropriate. Seems like the Yanks severely overpaid."

Depends on how many years the Angels were offering. Originally I believe both teams were offering 5 years, but its when the Yankees went to a 6th year that then figure jumped by $20 million. Perhaps I'm wrong though.

Overall I don't think its too outrageous to say that the Padres are looking for a package similar to what Tex got. Will they get it no but they should have that deal as their starting point. Its not as if Heyman is too far out there...is there a player who has more value thats on the trade block right now??

I could be wrong but the inference is that the Angels and Yanks bid the same number of years - the Angels at $140m and the Yanks at $160m.

And while we knew that the Brewers were close to $100m it was fairly clear that other teams were going to be in the mix between $120m and $140m.

The Yanks had to outbid the Angels or CC would be fronting the staff in Anaheim. I just wonder if they needed to overpay that much.

What team has the farm system to give more than the Teixeira haul? Would they even have a need for him?

Three team deal, a little far fetched but i don't think it is totally ubsurd

Atlanta sends Charlie Morton, Kris Medlen, Jeff Francouer, and James Parr to San Diego along with Casey Kotchman, and James Parr to Seattle and garret anderson to either team if they want him

San Diego sends Gonzalez to Atlanta

Seattle sends Russel Branyan(natural first/third baseman, has played OF) to atlanta

San Diego gets 2 really good starting pitching prospects, a somewhat proven solid long reliever(parr can start if they wanted him to) and the chance to recreate francouer

Seattle gets a long term 1st baseman and good su man or closer potentially(i will acknowledge branyan is better than kotchman)

and one of them gets garret anderson (the braves will call up b. jones to platoon with diaz

again i know it's far fetched but it's not two video game-ish if you look at the intangiables

"Gonzalez has an .873 OPS vs. LHP...not exactly Ortizian."

He has improved this year, but he still isn't near Teixiera's .944 against LHP. Teixiera is a rare legit power hitting switch hitter.

His career OPS vs. LHP, even with this year, is only .750.

"I'm getting really close to that point where I want to petition to have Jon Heyman removed from SI's writing staff."

Adrian Gonzalez is the same quality of player Tex is. On top of that he is younger and much cheaper for a lot longer. Tell me why he shouldn't be worth more?

Posted by: bkoke | May 27, 2009 at 12:42 PM
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Tex was 27 when traded, Gonzo would be 26. The only major difference is that, including this year, Gonzo is owed $3 mil this year, $4.75 mil in 2010 and $5.5 mil in 2011. Tex was owed $9 mil (or the balance) in 2007 and agreed to $12.5 mil to avoid arb in 2008. So in that way, Gonzo is cheeper. But to think that a team could net more than:

Saltalamacchia ranked #36 by BA in 07
Andus ranked #65 by BA in 07
Felix ranked #93 by BA in 08
Harrison ranked #90 by BA in 07
Jones (not ranked)

....is hard to beleive. How many teams HAVE 3 prospects ranked in the top 100 by Baseball America, let alone are willing to trade all 3 PLUS a 19 and 21 year old up and coming pitching prospect for what amounts to a 1 1/2 year rental. Texas receives quantity AND quality in there deal and the Padres would be lucky to get anything remotely close to that.

"There is one big area in which Gonzalez falls short of Tex. Gonzalez still hasn't figured out how to consistently hit lefties."

But he hits righties better which somewhat compensates.

Gonzalez is still getting better while Tex is probably at his peak. They are in the same league. I'll take the younger much less expensive player any day of the week.

Posted by: bkoke | May 27, 2009 at 01:13 PM
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Yeah but why are you comparing the Gonzo of today vs the Teixeira of today? Doesn't take a rocket science to understand why Gonzo is cheeper. He's never been a FA.

In retrospect it's amazing to me that Atlanta traded away top prospects at the most premium positions possible (SS, C and SP). Wow..

To their credit Atlanta still had a decent farm left over.

scribbletone,

whats with the hostility towards Heyman. He is equating the value of the player at time of trade. He is using this as the measuring stick for current value returned. Gonzalez has equal value to Teixeira at least due to the fact the team gets him an extra year at a lower cost. You can easily look at a trade 2 years after the fact when all the prospects panned out, but look at the trade when it was made. Also when you argue that GMs are not stupid enough to make that kind of deal again after listing three examples of trades that have occurred recently that GMs have made that fit the bill you are disproving your point.

Posted by: cwilli | May 27, 2009 at 01:28 PM
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I'm w/ Scribs. I can't recall when a team has traded 4 players ranked inside Baseball America's top 100 list in one deal. So it's not like these prospects surprised anyone. Feliz wasn't ranked in the top 100 in 07 but he was in 08 and I'm sure he probably had the same stuff in 07.

BA usually doesn't include guys in the GCL or rookie ball in their top 100. However, Feliz had combined stats of:

42 IP, 31 hits, 2 hrs, 24 bb and 55 SO in 07 @ age 19. Not exactly a sleeper when he's clocking 100 mph on his pitches at such a young age.

We are also forgetting that Ron Mahey was part of the deal to the Braves. Not saying that he equates to Salty or Andrus but he prob. does equal more than Jones and maybe even Harrison.

If that offer by the Angels is true, then CC was stupid to go to the Yankees. Why face all that pressure when you don't have to? $20M is a lot to you or I, of course, but if you can't live on $140M something is seriously wrong.

"Gonzo is THE ONE guy that could easily see Boston giving up multiple top guys for including one of Bowden/Bucholz, plus Lars Anderson, Ryan Kalish and Felix Doubront. All top 15 prospects in the Sox system and all at AA or above."

Agreed but then who's out? Lowell to the bench or a DH platoon with Ortiz? Maybe trade bait I guess with teams like the Cubs and Cardinals looking for offensive help.

(I was actually checking on Scott Hairston's contract a second ago thinking about a Boston deal. Theo is smart; I wonder if he would cash in Ellsbury with a good CF coming back in order to save a prospect or two. I know its not cool to say it, but Ellsbury isn't going to be much more than Willy Taveras if he doesn't get that OBP up and he's already approaching 1,000 career PAs. Could be a nice sell high candidate who carries more trade value than he should.)

"Gonzo is THE ONE guy that could easily see Boston giving up multiple top guys for including one of Bowden/Bucholz, plus Lars Anderson, Ryan Kalish and Felix Doubront. All top 15 prospects in the Sox system and all at AA or above."

Sounds fair. Though Buch has faded and Anderson hasn't seen high competition yet.

"I'm not arguing that it was a great idea, but it wasn't the worst trade in history. Not even close. Are any of those guys All-Stars yet, or anywhere near that? No. Will any of them be? Maybe, maybe not."

Just because they're doing nicely with Heyward and Hanson and others doesn't change that it was a disaster trade. They gave up a ton and got nothing (playoff- or player-wise to show for it). The fact that atleast 3 of those prospects would likely net more than Kotchman/Marek on their own is evidence of that.

I see your point NJM, but Hairston would be risky and I think Ellsbury will be better than Taveras in the long run. If i'm Boston i'd make the deal (though i'd try and keep Bucholtz) b/c I know that I can recoup some of the talent by spending more in the draft and International FA's. Also the Sox can move Penny to get some guys back as well.

I think Boston needs this deal more than most people think. With Ortiz struggling and Bay an FA the Sox are looking at a serious power deficiency in the near future.

I guess my point is I don't see Ellsbury as an impact CF now (at all) and, for the reason you stated (low power, walks are doubles), it might be really tough for him to improve. Obviously I don't know what his frame is capable of holding, but if he doesn't get stronger, teams will lose any reason to pitch around him and he'll be an AVG based OBP guy by necessity (rather than lack of patience). I know he's fun to watch and super-fast and all that, but what does that really do for a team? Perceptions aside, he's statistically worse than the guy they just traded this offseason. He makes more outs (.335 OBP to .344), hits for less power (.071 isoP to .166) and is stealing more but at a lower rate. On defense, they're basically a push (Ellsbury's +4 to Crisp's +3). Even if you want to argue that Ellsbury is more valuable due to age/contract, you probably have to admit that *right now*, he's not getting the job done. The league-wide perception of his value (unless I'm mistaken) probably exceeds his actual on-field value by quite a bit.

(In hindsight, I wish I'd used "Weavy" instead of "J-Weav". Weavy just looks and sounds ridiculous.)

Sorry, "have suggested". Damn it all to hell.

Eh, it can still be a disaster just because what would have happened is unknown. Sizemore et all didn't bring a title to Cleveland (and there were extenuating circumstances), but that's still a disaster for Montreal/Washington.

I like that "Lars" is ridiculous enough to stand on its own.

Also, I still dont see the Padres trading him this year, unless they were to get a package greater then the one Texas received.

The only team with a need for Gonzo and that could give enough would the Angels.

"The only team with a need for Gonzo and that could give enough would the Angels."

WHAT??? Boston *could* give up any combo of Bucholz/Bowden/Masterson/Bard, all AAA, or at MLB young pitching 25 and younger that Anaheim does not have, along with top talent OF and Lars Anderson. I doubt Anaheim could get even close to what Boston *could* offer if they were so inclined.

"Angels could make a deal for Adrian Gonzalez. Could be able to deal Kendry Morales, Brandon Wood, Jered Weaver, Hank Conger + 2 mid-prospects for Adrian."

I like that but I think you have to sub Morales for Bourjos, the Pads would use Blanks I assume.

Weaver would thrive in SD, Wood just needs a chance, Bourjos could turn into a legit 50 steal leadoff man. Conger I think is the one untouchable player in the minors.
Plus PJ Phillips(Brandon Phillips younger brother)
and Trevor Bell.

"I think the BroSox could trump the Halos by offering up (1) Buch, Manny D. and R. Kalish-ous, or (2) Bowdy/J-Mast, Lars and J. Reddick-ulous.

Posted by: DunkinDonuts | May 27, 2009 at 02:53 PM "

thanks for being biased.

I am not even sure the Angels would give up Weaver and Wood for Gonzalez. Weaver is an establish top of the rotation guy and Wood is still a very elite prospect. You have to remember that at the time of the Tex and Haren trades all those names were mostly in low A ball and as much potential as talent. Most of the names you named off for the Angels are AAA and above.

I truthfully believe the Angels could get it done for Weaver Morales and (Reckling or Bourjos). Any way these multi prospect for a superstar trades almost never work out for the team getting the superstar and Moreno doesnt like moving prospects

People on this site wildly overestimate how much a team will get in one of these trades. If you want to say that Gonzalez is as valuable now as Teixeira was when acquired by the Braves, I'll listen to an argument. But everything broke right for Texas in their return, and the climate has changed anyway. Jake Peavy was only going to command Aaron Poreda and a pocketful of lint. The Angels are really going to trade Wood, Weaver, and more for Gonzalez? Give me a break.

"Atlanta sends Charlie Morton, Kris Medlen, Jeff Francouer, and James Parr to San Diego along with Casey Kotchman, and James Parr to Seattle and garret anderson to either team if they want him

San Diego sends Gonzalez to Atlanta

Seattle sends Russel Branyan(natural first/third baseman, has played OF) to atlanta"

Seriously. This is the worst and most unrealistic idea I've ever heard. Coming from a Braves fan...... weird.

And who plays LF for the dodgers? Hoffman? Paul? they are anything from starters, until Manny comes back July 3rd. And if we were going to pull off a deal that large, why would we want Young instead of Peavy? That is way too much for Young/Gonzo, and not enough for Peavy/Gonzo. However, if another minor league pitcher not named Martin or Lindblom, then a deal could happen, but this will probably never happen