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By Tim Dierkes [May 11, 2009 at 2:18pm CST]
The Orioles are currently in last place, eight games out in the AL East. The offense has been OK, the pitching lousy. This comes as no surprise; 2009 was viewed as a rebuilding year for Baltimore heading into the season. This is entirely speculative, but let's take a look at possible veteran trade candidates a month or two from now.
- Melvin Mora, 3B - $9MM this year, $8MM club option for '10 with a $1MM buyout. Mora, 37, caught fire in July and August of '08. He has a no-trade clause and has dealt with a hamstring injury this year. Could he help the Reds, if he starts hitting and shows a willingness to accept a trade? Walt Jocketty and Andy MacPhail matched up on the Ryan Freel-Ramon Hernandez deal last winter.
- Ty Wigginton, 3B - $2.5MM this year, $3.5MM in '10. Wiggy has been awful at the plate so far in 106 plate appearances, rendering him immovable.
- Adam Eaton, SP - signed through 2009, Phillies paying most of his salary. Eaton's had one good start this year, against the White Sox. He needs to find his way back to the NL.
- Aubrey Huff, DH/1B - $8MM this year. This year he's looked more like the pre-2008 Huff. Did MacPhail miss his chance last winter to move the entire $8MM?
- Danys Baez, RP - $5.5MM this year. He missed all of '08, but Baez is having a nice year in his first 18 innings. The O's have handled him carefully, as he ranks fourth in their bullpen in Leverage. He appears to be the most likely trade candidate on the team, and the cost shouldn't be much beyond paying his salary.
- Koji Uehara, SP - $5MM this year, $5MM in '10. Uehara has been the team's best pitcher, combining a decent strikeout rate with a tiny walk rate. Is this MacPhail's chance to sell high, despite the risk of making the '09 rotation even worse? Given the hoopla about Uehara being the team's first Japanese-born player, it's unlikely he's dealt a few months into the contract.
- Jamie Walker, RP - $4.5MM this year. Walker's been solid overall this year, but he's surprisingly been rocked by lefties.
- George Sherrill, RP - $2.75MM this year, under team control through 2011. Sherrill is trying to hang on to the team's closer job. He may be best-served back in a lefty-specialist role. He's similar to Guthrie in that he's past 30 but under team control for a while.
- Cesar Izturis, SS - $2.4MM this year, $2.6MM in '10. Izturis probably isn't a trade candidate unless an adequate replacement emerges, perhaps through a separate deal. Robert Andino hasn't gotten much of a look yet.
- Luke Scott, OF - $2.4MM this year, under team control through 2012. Scott's shoulder injury may knock him out for an extended period of time, keeping him off the trade market.
- Mark Hendrickson, SP/RP - $1.5MM this year. He at least takes the ball every fifth day, so the O's may keep him around just to eat up innings. Maybe they'll feel the same way about Eaton.
- Gregg Zaun, C - $1.5MM this year, $2MM club option for '10 with a $500K buyout. The contract could be a nice bargain if Zaun rediscovers his .340 OBP ability. The O's probably prefer he stays on to tutor Matt Wieters when the prospect comes up this summer.
- Jeremy Guthrie, SP - $650K this year, under team control through 2012. The O's are not in a position to trade away pitching, but Guthrie is already 30 years old. 3.5 years of Guthrie could be appealing on the trade market. Maybe he could be cashed in for multiple young players.
You would think that McPhail & Hendry would have a conversation about Mora/Wiggy soon.
Posted by: cubz23 | May 11, 2009 at 02:27 PM
what am I missing Last I heard, E Encarcion was due back at the beginning of June, just a couple of weeks away. I'd rather have him than Wiggington or Mora by a long shot, why is that such a natural fit for a trade?
Posted by: jakec | May 11, 2009 at 02:35 PM
Aubrey Huff is a notoriously slow starter, plus he has 6 HRs and 31 RBI. Yes, his average is down from last year but I actually think that will end up climbing.
No way they trade Uehara. They're not going to burn their Japanese bridges right after they built them.
I don't think they want to move Izturis unless they get young shortstop in some deal. Andino has looked good so far this year but I don't think he's viewed as ever being a starter.
As far as Guthrie--just imagine the rotation without him. And that's saying a lot when talking about a guy who's currently 2-3 with an ERA just under 5.00 and a WHIP around 1.5.
...God I love the Orioles...
Posted by: Markakis21 | May 11, 2009 at 02:38 PM
Mora in my opinion is not even worth moving. His contract is an albatross, and the NTC just makes is near impossible. Plus he's a greeat team guy and personally I doubt we would get anything near his production by moving him.
Posted by: PeterScamgelos | May 11, 2009 at 02:49 PM
I would like to see the A's match up with the O's on Guthrie.
The O's might be interested in some of the excess young pitching in the A's organization (Outman/Gio G/Mazzaro) and might also want Daric Barton as a buy-low-resurrection candidate, a-la Rich Hill and Felix Pie.
Guthrie would be a nice mid-rotation/mentor for the A's as they try to eek back into contention this year and for the next few seasons.
Posted by: tajadib22 | May 11, 2009 at 02:56 PM
Wow, not only are the O's horrible this year, they don't even have anyone they can trade that anyone would want.
Plus they play in the hardest division in MLB. Sucks to be an O's fan right now.
Posted by: surfacetear | May 11, 2009 at 03:12 PM
"No way they trade Uehara. They're not going to burn their Japanese bridges right after they built them."
I have to really agree here. Have watched a couple of his starts also, including the one he made vs the Yanks yesterday and this guy is good, he had the Yanks really off balance with his nice "junk" and upper 80's FB and really deserved to win that game and along with Guthrie, is probably the 2nd best starter on the O's staff anyway.
Wiggy should still be movable, most teams know that it's just a matter of time before he starts hitting and the guy can play 6 positions.
Posted by: johns | May 11, 2009 at 03:12 PM
"Aubrey Huff is a notoriously slow starter, plus he has 6 HRs and 31 RBI. Yes, his average is down from last year but I actually think that will end up climbing."
Maybe not to the point that it did last year, but I do think he's going to end up climbing. He could be interesting at the deadline for a power-starved team. Not sure who would fit the bill AND have a semi-open 1B/DH spot. Angels?
When Luke Scott returns and reestablishes himself, the O's and Braves need to match up for a trade.
I don't see Guthrie traded until the offseason, simply because more teams can bid on him. I also don't want the A's to trade large amounts of young pitching at the deadline, especially for pitching, because all the young arms' value has depreciated due to the mess that is the A's pitching (and hitting) right now. Hold on to the pitching, see who sticks in 2010, and trade the rest for hitting help.
Posted by: melonis rex | May 11, 2009 at 03:14 PM
They have some real bright spots, like Jones and Markakis, but man - this list looks like the waiver wire in a deep fantasy league. Man, they've got a lot of rebuilding to do.
By the way, Tim, half the time this EFFING TypePad comments program doesn't EFFING work! It is a royal pain in the arse. Can you do something about that?
Posted by: J the Dizzolla | May 11, 2009 at 03:34 PM
I think by the end of the year Baez, Walker, and Huff are almost definitely gone and Sherrill and Scott are likely right behind them. We know that the O's will take on some money to move a player unlike some teams, so that shouldn't be an issue. I think any of the relievers could be moved with in the next month but the position players likely won't be moved till the deadline.
Posted by: Steveo26 | May 11, 2009 at 03:41 PM
as for Surfacetear's comment: I think its actually a pretty good time to be an O's fan. Your three best position players (Roberts, Markakis, and Jones) are under team control for a while and aren't really overpaid. Your two best pitchers (Koji and Guthrie) are here for a few years as well. Overall there is solid bullpen depth. And the O's have one of the best systems in the minors. Also in my estimation their players are more tradeable than many other teams. Look at the Yankees, who is really a good trade candidate right now? Cano, Damon, Swisher maybe Melky...those are the only players producing and none would bring a kings ransom. Also The Yankees don't have any in house options in the minors to replace those guys. The Yankees are in a tough position if they want to improve at the deadline they will have to move a couple of their top prospects and they don't have that many to go around.
Given their team goals and season outlook i'd say the O's are in a pretty good spot right now
Posted by: Steveo26 | May 11, 2009 at 03:48 PM
Mostly a load of crap from MacFAIL.
Posted by: rememberthecoop | May 11, 2009 at 03:50 PM
I second the comment about TypePad, it sucks. But don't hold your breath, Tim seems to think it's great.
Posted by: rememberthecoop | May 11, 2009 at 03:52 PM
Melonis,
I usually agree with you, but the Braves trading for Scott doesn't make much sense. They have Anderson who is similar, but hits for a higher average, and they have Brandon Jones at AAA, who is similar. They need a righty with some real power to put in between Chipper and McCann. Most likely they'll just stand pat though and wait on the kids. I don't like it, but thats a lot more likely than them trading for another spare part.
Posted by: bravo84 | May 11, 2009 at 03:55 PM
I don't see much chance that Mora would waive his no-trade. He is a full-time Baltimore resident whose children receive specialized care at Johns Hopkins.
Beyond the relievers, I think it is highly unlikely that any of these players get dealt. The O's have no depth behind Huff, no desire to move Zaun, no need to move Wiggy and no one to replace him with Freel gone.
Posted by: James F | May 11, 2009 at 04:08 PM
what would it take for the Giants to get Aubrey Huff? We have some nice prospects in the minors that the Orioles might like
Posted by: Bleacher_bum_SF | May 11, 2009 at 04:14 PM
"what would it take for the Giants to get Aubrey Huff? We have some nice prospects in the minors that the Orioles might like"
I would be shocked if the Gnats started shopping around this early. They have a glaring weakness (offense), but its still not clear what is going on in the NL West yet. The Dbacks are clearly under performing (an understatement), the Dodgers are still very good, but without Manny who's to say they can hold it down, and the Gnats are barely over 500. I'm pretty sure that the Gnats front office will hold out a bit longer before making any moves of real importance. Why would they part with any prospects to get Huff if they end up in 4th or 5th place at the end of the season.
Patience is a virtue. I'm pretty sure the Gnats will hold out until the division starts to take its true form. I think that we are in for some changes. I still feel that the Dodgers will lead the pack with or with out Manny, but I feel that the Dbacks are going to break out of their slump and start to catch up, eventually securing the second place spot in the division. The Gnats may give them a run for their money, but I just feel that the Gnats lack of offense is really going to hurt them, and unless they are making a run for the division or the WC, why would they make a big trade? Only time will tell.
Posted by: cutmeibleedblue | May 11, 2009 at 04:26 PM
On another note, I would not be surprised if the Dodgers do not trade for an arm or two soon. The bullpen has been very hit or miss and quite unreliable. Maybe Sherrill is a possibility, but I don't feel that he is worth all that much (his trade value has dropped this year, in my opinion). Then again, you all know how Colletti loves to overpay in trades. With the loss of Kuo for an undetermined amount of time, I feel that Sherrill may the only player in this list that may be helpful to the Dodgers.
As long as Hendrickson stays as far away from the Dodgers as possible I will be happy. How that guy continues to find a job is beyond me!
Posted by: cutmeibleedblue | May 11, 2009 at 04:31 PM
Rememberthecoop, you really either greatly exaggerate or are cluless.
Guthrie, Sherrill, Scott, Uehara, and Huff are solid options for quite nearly any team.
None will get you a king's ransom, but 5 out of the 13 guys listed wouldn't be hard to move at all IF the Orioles wanted to do that.
Almost 40% is "mostly a load of crap"? Must be the new math.
And I echo Steveo26. It is a good time to be an Oriole. Markakis and Jones are young and fun. Roberts is signed long term. Reimold and Wieters are tearing up triple A.
As for pitching, there are several young guns a year away as well as reclamation projects Troy Patton and Rich Hill.
IF the Orioles trade, they'll probably unload Walker or Baez in another Bradford type deal (aka, you pay for him). If Reimold/Pie/Montanez hits, then I can see Scott moving at the right price too.
Posted by: delaware_bird | May 11, 2009 at 04:34 PM
Troy Patton is 23 years old and has all of 12 2/3 innings in the majors. While he is recovering from a major injury, I don't think he qualifies as a reclamation project; he's a former top prospect who was the key player in the Tejada deal.
Oh, and he's dominating for AA Bowie so far this year, to the tune of an ERA of 0.95 and a 0.85 WHIP.
Posted by: James F | May 11, 2009 at 04:44 PM
Eaton will not have a major league contract next spring. Maybe a minor league contract, but I think a non-roster invite is more likely. He should honestly either try pitching in Japan or some independent league. He's HORRIBLE.
Posted by: mford | May 11, 2009 at 04:45 PM
Orioles made some smart moves last season in dumping Tejada and Bedard. Problem is they didn't do enough.
I think they need to do something now. If you wait until later you will have other clubs dumping their unwanted players.
Also, if Huff is so tradeable how come he passed through waivers with no claims last year. At the time he was playing much better, several teams had a need, and the market hadn't totally collapsed. I don't see teams lining up to take Huff at $8m unless he really turns it around.
Posted by: bjsguess | May 11, 2009 at 05:33 PM
"Guthrie, Sherrill, Scott, Uehara, and Huff are solid options for quite nearly any team."
Totally agree.
None of these guys is a star, but they have definitely have value and could deserve spots on good teams.
Guthrie is a solid 3/4 starter, Sherill is a good reliever, Uehara is a decent 4/5 starter, Scott is fairly underrated and is a pretty good outfielder, and Huff sucks defensively but is solid with the bat and has some upside.
With guys like Huff, Mora, and Uehara, the idea would be to clear payroll anyways.
Players like Guthrie, Sherill and Scott, who are under control past this season at a reasonable rate, could definitely land the Orioles some talent.
Posted by: scribbletone | May 11, 2009 at 07:01 PM
cutmeibleedblue
If we can keep playing like we did against the Dodgers this weekend im sure we will be right behind LA come the trade deadline.
our pitching is fantastic and Zito is looking like his old Oakland self.
we have offensive struggles but help is on the way as Jesus Guzman is tearing it up in AAA and im not saying he will be an all star or anything like that but he would be a major upgrade over our poor production from 1st base
pitching will keep us in it all the way
Posted by: Bleacher_bum_SF | May 11, 2009 at 07:45 PM
its a shame macphail didnt trade huff, walker and sherrill last season when their value was so high (well, for sherrill and huff anyways...). I dont know what the o's couldve gotten for the 3 of them but it is sure better than what it would be now. i still think the reds, giants, dodgers or maybe braves would be good places for huff. idk who would want walker or sherrill now... hopefully baez can keep this up and we can trade him.
the good thing is even if we dont trade them, mora, huff and maybe baez and walker could all be type A or B free agents so the orioles would get draft picks when they sign somewhere else. not a bad consolation if they dont get traded in my opinion...
Posted by: lftyg33 | May 11, 2009 at 08:13 PM
What type of players would the O's be looking in return for Sherrill? Cubs could really use some solid relief pitching.
Posted by: VerizonWireless | May 11, 2009 at 10:03 PM
I have to disagree with my fellow Braves fan about Scott. You've got to understand, in that scenario we aren't replacing Anderson...Unfortunately he's here to stay for awhile. We're replacing Matt Diaz. We need a power bat SOMEWHERE in our line-up. An acquisition of Luke Scott immediately puts him as our second best power threat, next to Chipper. Diaz's bat has really been declining in the recent years (small amount of playing time due to injury/early in the season, I know) but realistically we'd keep the .250 or so average but add about 3x the power that Diaz brings to the table. That's an upgrade I'll take any day of the week. There are a lot worse situations to be in than Luke Scott batting 7th or 8th.
Posted by: ksesxe | May 12, 2009 at 04:09 AM
MLBTR should have what the trade candidates are for all teams. i like this
Posted by: metsfan23 | May 12, 2009 at 09:30 AM
My opinion, one by one:
Mora: Not going anywhere. Will retire as an Oriole. I think he'd probably rather be a super-utility guy in Baltimore than start anywhere else.
Wigginton: Probable move, if he heats up.
Eaton: Untradeable.
Huff: Probably not going anywhere. Not good enough to yield top prospects, and despite his early issues, seems to be settling in with the fans here.
Baez: Will be traded, barring a disaster.
Uehara: Not going anywhere.
Walker: Always a trade possibility, but a good veteran fit for the O's in their bullpen.
Sherrill: I think he gets traded to a team needing a solid 8th inning guy.
Izturis: I think they move him if the price is right. The price won't be right. Andino is an adequate (and young) replacement.
Scott: I think he stays here.
Hendrickson: Best case scenario would be to get a post-hype guy for him, to a team needing a middle/long reliever.
Zaun: If he starts hitting, he'll probably be moved. Agree the O's want him around to help with Wieters, but Wieters already has a rep for calling a pretty good game.
Guthrie: I wouldn't be overly shocked to see him traded, though the fans would be. Hard to imagine the O's rotation without him, at least until late 2010 when the motherlode of talent arrives.
Posted by: The Globalizer | May 12, 2009 at 03:05 PM
O'S missed the boat on Sherrill when they could have gotten a haul at the trade deadline last year. He should still pull in someone decent though this year due to team arb.control.
Posted by: RED SOX DYNASTY! | May 13, 2009 at 08:05 PM