Red Sox Rumors: Bay, Penny, Buchholz

Penny hasn't been that bad, bobmac. He's had two horrible starts (15 runs in 5.2 IP), one not too bad one (4 over 6.1) and then five QS and last night's 5.1 with 3 runs. Any team in baseball will take that from a fifth starter, I think.

ive got 2 agree with philsWSchamps

He's a solid 5th starter, but who's going to give up a prospect of ANY value for a slightly above replacement level 5th starter for half a season?

Maybe the Nationals will give the Sox a AA scrub.

Let's face it - a 6.00 ERA is NOT valuable.

"Its not like its Peavy being dealt or Oswalt. Penny is league average at best."

How often does a high caliber pitcher actually get traded at the deadline? It's extremely rare. More often than not the hyped names at deadline never get dealt while back end arms are more likely to move for a price teams are willing to pay. This makes Penny more valuable and on most teams he could easily fill in as a good #3 arm or a solid #4.

Chiefcake: I would have to agree with that Penny is simply not a major upgrade. One his injury history, and two he isnt anything above a 4-5 starter. Blanton had the major advantage of health, and this year there are more arms rumored to be on the market.

I think a decent prospect or two for Penny and the Red Sox should be happy unless they pay more of the 3.2 million still owed to him. If a team is going to give up value they have far better options to go to.

It comes down to whether you need a #4 starter or a #1 starter. If you see a need for a #1 starter, you are giving up top 5 prospects. If you need a #4 starter, whom will replace moyer or blanton, than you will give up Lou Marson or jason donald and a C prospect.

start wearing purple,

"Penny could easily fill in as a solid #3 starter"

HE HAS AN ERA. OF 6.00! YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING

midtown,

really? While i readily agree the Sox have great SP depth Penny's ERA is 6+ and Smoltz has yet to throw a major league pitch. Can we hold off a bit before we crown King Theo?

Oh and BTW, thanks Sox fans for losing two of three to the Mets. I mean seriously, Omir Santos???

You guys need to stop focusing on ERA and look a little deeper at what Penny has done. He's started 9 games, and pitched a QS (6 IP, 3 or fewer ER allowed) in 5 of those games, and just missed 2 more. Just about any team in baseball would take a "5th starter" as you call him that could give you 5/9 QS, and there are at least a dozen teams in baseball who are really hurting for starting pitching right now.

If his ERA was 6.00 in July after having made 18 starts - then yeah, he's a scrub. But you have to remember that this early in the season, just a couple of terrible starts can make your ERA look inflated.

So right now Nick Cafardo is right - Penny does indeed have "tremendous value."

And no, I am not a Red Sox fan.

Red Sox are 6-3 when Penny pitches from the #5 slot, last night he struck out 7 and topped 97 on the gun. You guys are crazy if you think there are no teams willing to give up talent for a starter who can go 6+ innings consistently (until he gets injured, ill give him the benefit of the doubt).

As I remember, the Red Sox gave up D. Murphy for Fat Man Gagne, a reliever who was long past his prime and many outside of New England praised the trade. Point being if Smoltz is healthy the Sox will get something valuable for Penny.

PhilsWSchamps, How is Brad Lidge feeling today? You really shouldnt debate loses when you guys got out homered in the Wind Vortex with a 99% Lefty lineup.

the phillies are 1 and three against the mets this season so you should be quiet

I dont think the Red Sox can expect a top notch prospect in return for Penny, but teams are always in need of starting pitching so they will get something for him. He has been pitching better in his last 4/5 starts and while he's been giving up too many hits, he has been able to limit his walks recently, showing better control than earlier in the season. Is he a stud? Certainly not, but teams just don't dump a guy who has his history and currently has a 5-1 record. By my count, he's had 2 bad starts and 7 solid/acceptable ones. He's given up more than 4 runs once this season- his 2nd start of the year (and had another one where he went 2.2 IP and gave up 4 ER) and hasn't walked more than 2 guys in any of his last 5 starts. And he's only being paid $5M this season. This guy has value, whether you want to believe it or not.

So do we (the Sox) keep Penny for the whole year hoping he continues to be as successful as he has been? And if so, will that net him a Type A or Type B free agent status in free agency? I don't recall his contract off the top of my head.

All of you guys are seriosly underrating Penny bad starts amd his ERA is about 6.00 like J the Dizzola said if had his ERA in July then we should say he's pitching poorly but were only a quarter through the season.Oh yahh wasn't Penny the of the Dodgers for 2 years.I know they didn't have good pitching but to be a ace on a major league team is pretty good.What do you think

Still 2 months to the trading deadline and Smoltz is probably a couple weeks atleast away from getting to the MLB level. I say wait it out. You never know who will come up lame and you'll need the arms to replanish the supply.

As a Phils fan, I'd give up Lou Marson for Penny in a heartbeat. Marson's not going to be an elite hitter at the major-league level, and the Phils already have a solid major-league catcher in Carlos Ruiz. The Phils are not getting to the playoffs without adding a starter. One good prospect for Penny is well worth it.

Penny is not going to be traded looking for some kind of power hitting slugger, or fix it all type guy at the SS position, just in case Jed Lowrie is not able to step back into the SS position at full tilt in 2-3 weeks, No, Penny will *probably* have to go, solely because the Sox have too many starters and he is the one they deem most expendable.. That's it!

Sox will probably look for like a Marson marginal prospect, one that was hot and stumbled a little bit and that is all that they can realistically expect to get back, face it, he's a FA again after this year and at this point of his career, on the Mets, Phils, a #3, no more probably. Well a tad better than Blanton maybe, but in the NL East and what seems like parity between Philly, NYM, Atlanta and we'll see if the Fish can regroup, a Penny could just make the difference on a staff as wrecked as both the Phils and mets both have.

Difference is, the Phillies have something in marson that is if of some interest and of about what they are looking for and the mets do not, so maybe in a couple of weeks when a deal will not require Penny's approval, or maybe beforehand even, something can be worked out between them and either Bucholz can FINALLY get back to the bigs, or Smoltz make his return if no setbacks occur.

midtown,

sorry, i don't see it and I hope that crystal ball you're looking into is broken.

Irregardless of WHEN it happened, he EARNED his World Series ring. Eaton didn't do squat. You should acknowledge that bit of info.

midtown,

I'm not worried about what posters on an internet site say. Its simple, they see a surplus of Red Sox pitching, we have a need for pitching. We have a supposed surplus of catchers, Red Sox have been dying for a catcher to eventually replace Varitek. Its not a far jump. Doesn't mean it happens. unless two of these posters are Ruben Amaro or Theo Epstein, its only conjecture.

turnthe2,

I'm one of the biggest Eaton bashers ever. Trust me, I loathe him. He's horrible. I wasn't at the ring ceremony this year but i would have booed him too. I acknowledge that the Phils won IN SPITE OF Eaton.

Brad Penny, last 5 starts:

3-1, 4.40 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 6.75 K/9, 3.83 K/BB

He's also given up more than 4 ER only once this season (9 starts). This is all despite a BABIP against of .335, which is very unlikely to stay that high all season (His career BABIP against is .304).

He's not worth an A prospect, but he definitely has value as a #4 starter. His recent numbers are significantly better than 4/5 of the Nationals rotation, for example.

melonis wrote:

"Penny has absolutely blown (please stop looking at W-L record)"

Huh?

Who's not looking at the full record. Penny has 9 starts. 5 of them are QS, and 2 were close (6 IP, 4ER & 5.1IP, 1 ER). Yes, Penny had 2 abysmal outings at the start. Yes, Penny has walked too many. But there is no way anyone can accurately and fairly say that he has "absolutely blown" so far this season.

So please put your hyperbole back in its box.

And no, I am not a Sox fan.

I still think the bigger issue here is his track record, health wise. He is a lot like Rich Harden, except he will be a FA this year not next. Harden didnt cost the cubs much in the forms of high end players and that was Harden for a year and a half. In fact the players in that deal included the A's sending a second player as well.

Sean Gallagher/Eric Patterson/Matt Murton/Josh Donaldson. Now and Gallagher and Donaldson were in the cubs top 10 (I believe) they were for a pitcher who at the time was pitching very well. Plus they were going to have him for another year. I think maybe, maybe one of those two would have been enough to get Penny this year.

philsWSchamps-

I agree about not rushing up pitching. As a fan of a team that has rushed up multiple young pitching prospects this season(Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Sean Gallagher, Gio Gonzalez, et al), its annoying and borderline asinine. The A's need to accept that Braden and Outman are their best pitchers now,

The Phillies are in a better shape, and Carrasco actually looks ready. I'm very confident Blanton will turn it around, but I think Carrasco should replace Moyer in the rotation if he doesn't put it together soon.

Drabek? MLB? That's ridiculous.

I've seen the Marson/Penny rumor around MLBtr. It's kind of ridiculous, IMO. Backup catchers are getting 2MM guaranteed contracts and even multiyear deals. If Marson can be a cheap backup for 3 years at the league minimum, that's easily worth more than 1/2 season of an injury prone, mediocre Penny.

"Well this time, the METS and the Phillies are the team that needs a 4th or 5th starter. So if the phillies think they are too good to give up Lou Marson, I have no problem trading him to the Mets for Reese Havens or Brad Holt, and watch the phils sink with Blanton, Happ and Moyer...."

do you really believe the mets would give up one of their top pitching prospects for an injury prone 1/2 a year of Penny? This is why the boston hype machine is a joke. you should trade nick green for wilmer flores cause the mets need a backup ss with cora and reyes out

"the only stat i care about is the wins the Red Sox have gotten from the #5 slot. 6-3. Not bad for a guy who cannot pitch."
But its not really due to him... i.e. the sox won a game when he went 3inn and gave up 8 runs

nah Boston injury prone 5th starter > top prospects

Sometimes mediocre pitching will net far more than it is truly worth. Cases in point are obvious of late and Phiily had paid lately also for Blanton and gotten very little out of him. Happ, Moyer looks awful this year, even yesterday against the Fish whom he usually dominates he was beaten.

The price for a dependable starter for the Phillies/Mets rotation and what those teams could end up coming down to just how much those 2 teams want to win the division. Both could have made attempts earlier to sign either Byrd, or the REAL DL risk in Martinez, but chose not to do so and now it would take probably a month to get them into a MLB "flow", so a Penny type starter may be what they will both have to settle for.

"Sometimes mediocre pitching will net far more than it is truly worth. Cases in point are obvious of late and Phiily had paid lately also for Blanton and gotten very little out of him."
Blanton was younger, signed longer, and has been around 200 innings every year, including 230inn once. Alot different than a 1/2 of penny comming of just over 90 last year due to injury

exactly what about "we don't want another crappy 5th starter" don't Sox fans understand? If you wanted to talk Bucholz or another AAA pitcher that's another story but obviously you won't and you shouldn't and you want us to take your crappy 6th starter (when Smoltz starts) so you can get your catcher of the future. The answer should always be, NO.

Oh and because we're battling with the Mets for our division either of us should let you dupe us into giving up a valued prospect or two for an injury prone pitcher with almost a 6 ERA? STOP.

One thing Mets fans and Phillies fans can agree on is that NEITHER of us wants Penny.

"One thing Mets fans and Phillies fans can agree on is that NEITHER of us wants Penny."

Because Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, Tim Redding, and Livan Hernandez are ALL pitching like aces right now... oh wait.

Penny has 2 bad starts that are skewing his numbers, take those out and he's a league average pitcher. This month he's been a league average pitcher. Penny can still get a decent prospect, not a surefire bluechip prospect but definitely a decent one when the chips are down and the Phillies and Mets fans remember their own rotations after their respected aces are shaky at best and the way things stand the only way into the playoffs for them is to beat the other.

"Sometimes mediocre pitching will net far more than it is truly worth. Cases in point are obvious of late and Phiily had paid lately also for Blanton and gotten very little out of him."

huh?

Joe Blanton has been durable his entire career and could be depended on for a league average FIP. Long track record.

Adrian Cardenas- 2B/SS prospect, not a major power bat and might not stick at SS. His bat won't play well at 3B. Top 100 prospect.

Josh Outman- Upside is a MOR starter. However, at the time of trade, he was pitching out of the pen (A's switched him back to the rotation). Nobody expected what he's doing now.

Matt Spencer- Organizational filler/ non-prospect.

Blanton's struggling this year. He's almost certainly going to rebound. That deal wasn't "a lot" for a league average pitcher under control for 2.5 years by any means.

Maybe I don't know what I am talking about but it is POSSIBLE that Penny is traded with a Lowrie/other prospect to land a better chip....

Penny is pretty proven in the NL (aside from injury) and he is getting better. Saying he sucks from a small sample size is stupid. That is like saying Beckett isn't worth a A prospect because his ERA is near 6. Is Penny Beckett? No but he sure is a 3 starter (NL) and a 4 starter in the AL.

Perhaps I'm a bit biased against Penny as a Dodger fan, but I still think the guy is almost worthless. He was awful last season and I don't see anything to indicate he's improved all that much.

If Penny was on the Pirates or A's, I doubt we'd be hearing anything about him and his supposed value. If he's so valuable, the Dodgers have a collection of mediocre 5th starters to trade (Milton, Weaver, Estes, Vargas). We could use bullpen help.

Johns,

You think a team is going to give up an A- prospect for half a year of Brad Penny? Which contender would do that? Maybe the disconnect is what each of us considers am "A-/B+ prospect" could you give us an example johns, then maybe a better understanding would be reached

Careful that argument can be made about several big league SPs (did Phil Hughes deserve to win yesterday?), but the fact is Penny gets wins for the Red Sox as does Wakefield, 14-5 from their #4 and #5 starters. He is healthy (currently) gives 6 + innings and has big league experience, you are crazy if you think nobody will be interested.

So phil hughes throws 8 innings of 3 hit 0 runs baseball and you compare it to 3 innings of 8 run baseball?
No wonder everyone hates boston fans

""Penny could easily fill in as a solid #3 starter"

HE HAS AN ERA. OF 6.00! YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING"

So does Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano.

Scott Kazmir has an ERA of 7.69. So is he a number 5 or an AAAA guy?

Lester has an ERA of 5.91. What do you think he would get if the Sox put him on the market?

"So Johns if Penny was on another team and Boston needed a SP at the break... you would give an A- like Bowden for 1/2 a year of him?"

The article states Penny will be "one of the best 5 available starting pitchers" this July. While no one is saying the price of admission is Matt Wieters or Tommy Hanson, the facts are that the prices are typically more at the deadline, when teams are more desperate and have an idea of whether or not they really have a chance to compete. Fans like to think teams won't deal any prospects and not mortagage the future, but that is actually a stupid practice and rarely done. Or dod you think Casey Blake was worth Carlos Santana?

Last July, Randy Wolf was traded for Chad Reineke. Wolf's injury history makes Penny look like Lou Gehrig. The Sox probably hope for something better than AAAA wannabe Reineke, and they might be able to get it. It won't be a franchise-changing move, but I think some fans have yet to realize that a move can simply be a good trade even if you don't completly devastate the other team's fan system.

The Sox are more likely to get a better prospect for Penny in July than they would had they tried to deal him in the off-season (which, obviously, they could not do).

This really goes for any player...

I guess we'll just have to wait and see on Penny then and see which miserable rotation in the NL East is forced to overpay 1st.

Last year, the Yankees refused to pay up and missed the playoffs because they would not give up what was required to stay in the playoff hunt. Will the defending WS Champs do the same thing, or choose to stay in the "game"?

Posted by: johns | May 26, 2009 at 05:06 PM
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Im guessing your referring to Washburn, who is a dreadful pitcher at this point and in no way would have guaranteed that they stayed in the playoff hunt.If it meant keeping Austin Jackson then im glad the Org. chose not to mortgage what could possibly be the future answer in center for a #5 pitcher making alot of money

"The Yankees were more than "one pitcher" away from the playoffs last year. They finished 7 games back, if I remember correctly. One starting pitcher won't add 7 wins."

The AL East race was 3 way and tight in early august when the trade discussions circling around Washburn was going down and yeah CosaOneNYC, I agree that giving up much for Washburn was a waste, he is/was then a pretty bad pitcher, but the problem with that was supposed to be over who was going to pay his rotten contract as I recall wasn't it? I thought the player(s) going back were marginal?

"i take out a couple of bad starts Penny's not that bad. Ya well you can't do that. he is what he is."

Funny, that's a basic tool of statistical analysis and not to mention every fan says the same thing about a pitcher. I'm willing to bet you'd call Blanton's current month an improvement over last or for that matter quietly are whispering to yourself if you take out Hamels first start then he has an ERA more than a full point lower. But of course we can't do that... because Hamels is a 4.68 ERA this year and we should treat his value only as thus... so he's a #3 arm at best.

Once again, I have yet to see anyone claim Penny right now is an ace. But the fact is he's probably one of the best available pitcher's who can be had for cheap prospect wise and dollar wise. An average arm is what you can expect to go at the deadline.

As for injury prone, he missed half of last year, before that not enough to call injury prone. Ben Sheets, Mark Prior were injury prone.

Boomer,

Hey thanks for the love man, I really enjoy conversations with Yankee fan as well.

Penny's run support makes little difference when he has given the Sox 6 wins. My point with Hughes is that when the Yankees put up 10+ runs Hughes, under your argument, should get no credit for a dominating game. Its very unlikely Texas would score 11, even in Texas.

Fact is Penny has a chance to get 10-15 wins for the Red Sox, which IS worth something to organizations and his run support is irrelevant to the argument of whether he is an average, good or great pitcher. Its obvious the Red Sox simply want an arm who will give them 6 innings and keep them in the game, which Penny does so his value is based on this fact alone.

If you want to argue that he is not a good or great pitcher any longer, fine its your opinion, if you want to argue that he is not valuable to the Red Sox or other teams you are a fool.

Again if Smoltz is healthy the Red Sox will move Penny and get something of value for him and they only needed to spend $5 million for 1 year compared to $16.5 million/year on a 4 year deal.

Hell with the money they would of saved the Yankees could of hired an Engineer and a Meteorologist to fix the Big Wind Vortex they call a stadium.

I dont understand this whole discussion. I think the point is that Penny could help a team in need of pitching. But I think all GM's are going be looking at his history and ask if he is going to give them another 20 or so starts. As I have said he has only gone over 30 starts 4 times in his career (9 seasons). If you think he can do that then is he worth a B prospect sure. But if you dont think he can he isnt going to be worth anywhere near that. Thats the point, health is the key with Penny, if he is healthy he can pitch. But its a risk, and most teams have moved away from giving up young controlable talent for rentals given the economic climate. So given all of that I dont think the Red Sox will get anything substantial for Penny.

"If a team was really interested in giving up good prospects for an injury prone starter wouldnt they look to Bedard first? Who in the right mind would give quality for Penny rather then Bedard who is actually pitching well this season and is younger and a lefty?"

Obviously. But just as obviously, Seattle will insist on a lot more for Bedard than Boston will for Penny.

CosaOneNYC,

Nice point you made in directly above post and sort of long to highlight and bring here, so will just write a response sort of.

As I wrote in the posts(s) above, it could depend on what starters are available and how soon a team wants to pull the trigger, as well as what starters are available at that time. Later on during the summer, more teams are going to realize that they are not going to be "in the hunt" of course, but right now teams know that Boston has an abundance of pitching and *probably*, Penny is the one that will be shopped 1st for prospects, or Masterson if they are going to actually fill SS position/bat instead of waiting to see how Lowrie will be when he gets off of the DL in 2-3 weeks. I doubt that they would move both Penny and Masterson, but it is possible and if they did, it would take a impact bat under team control for a few years would think, or swap out Masterson with Bowden.

I do believe that since Penny is one of the few starters known to be on the market as of now, with many teams (such as the entire AL Central) still thinking they can win the division, that not as many teams will be willing to part with starters until much later in the season and Boston is probably ready to trade Penny right now.

Why a team like the Phillies does not just go out and sign Paul Byrd NOW to save a propsect, is beyond me. The rotation they have is really bad, even though just finished watching that masterpiece that Blanton threw (for a change) vs the marlins, they need Moyer and that retread Park to start pitching decent, or acquire somebody. Paul Byrd would save them Lou Marson, or whatever the cost of acquiring another starter.

"He's hitting .282"

With a 1.011 OPS. Just saying.

Was wondering why saw Park pitching in relief during the Moyer start vs the Marlins.. So Happ has taken Park's spot in the rotation then huh. Not familiar with Happ, but of Park and from LAD and Texas.

It's all about that extra starter to put them over the top in the East philsWSchamps. Sure, they may take a big enough lead while the Mets have all these injury woes, but it could remain tight and the Phillies (or someone else) may want to make a move.

I would like to see a deal for Peavy on the part of the Phillies, but can't see Peavy agreeing to a trade because of the way the ball carries in that stadium.