Bay, Red Sox To Begin Negotiations

You mean 5 year, $70 million.

And he can definitely command more than that, at least now. If he continues to slump, then maybe not.

Wasn't there a report earlier in the day/yesterday saying there were no signs of negotiations?

I think Massarotti is one of the worst writers for the BG.

hes just having a bad year....everyone has them he will be reall good next year one of the best

well if we do get him, he wont be as much as if he was having a good year this year so we will be getting at least an above average player for not as much money as he is worth. ( also he is much better defensivly than Damon and with a-jax coming up hopefully next year and garder and melky..thats a set future outfield

Not to mention Holliday being on the wrong side of 30. There are better OF choices for the Yankees instead of him. Bay is a great player but I don't mind him going back to the Sox.

If Holliday could be signed for a 3 or 4 year deal I think Cashman would be serious about going after him. I would hate to see the Yanks without Damon though....he has no arm but besides that is a heck of a player and goes all out 24/7. Really wish Steinbrenner wasn't so keen on signing Posada because I would love to see Damon DHing

holliday does all the small things right..bay is a great player and id love him in my outfield but holliday just beats bay in every categorie..even just by a little

Don't be quick just yet that Holliday won't sign a huge deal... He could get hot in the second half and his agent is Scott Boras.

this isnt like were comparing bay to teixiera or arod, bay and holliday might as well be carbon copies for the exception that each guy is better at some of the smaller un-noticed stats, holliday hits for average, bays has a better fielding percentage over a longer career. the rbi's, ops, home runs and such are mostly alike, to end up with either guy is a win

It's funny that a Yankee fan is calling Fenway a bandbox when it is currently 17th most home run friendly park compared to Yankee Stadium which is 1st according to ESPN's Park Factors.
And how is Bay, who is a career .280/.375/.517, worse in every category compared to Holliday who has a career line of .281/.350/.450 away from Coors Field in 384 games. Holliday is a byproduct of the thin air in Denver. Any team that signs him this winter believes that they are getting a .315/.384/.538 hitter is very mistaken.

He has a career UZR/150 rating of over 10 IIRC, he is well above average in LF. And like soxfan02 said Yankee stadium is the most hitter friendly so his offensive numbers should spike right back to his rockies days if he winds up in NY which makes him far more valuable than Bay

as long as holliday ends up in a fairly neutral park (braves) or a hitter's park (yankees) he will become the better player between he and Bay. As melonis pointed out they have both been worth roughly 2 WAR and getting out of Oakland would push Holliday ahead

bravesfan22193 I like the Braves shot at getting Holliday. He would be the perfect fit for them. Is Church controlled through 2010? If so I like an outfield with Holliday in left, Mclouth in center and a platoon of Church and Diaz in right

He is controlled through 2010 but I see them bringing only one of Church and Diaz back. They still have Jordan Schafer at AAA and though he failed this year he is still viewed as a top prospect by the organization and will be starting in CF in 2010 barring major injury. But you are right, Holliday is a good fit in the lineup as well because a 3-4-5 of Chipper, Holliday, and McCann not only provides some power (all three are 20+ homer guys) but they also all have very high OBP's. I really think Holliday winds up in Atlanta or New York, don't see another reasonable fit

What's the talk about Bay having "a career year" even based on? I think he was probably a better played in 2005 and 2006. He may end up having his best HR year, although it probably winds up being close, even though he always struggled to hit homers at PNC Park. He isn't going to match any of the other numbers he put up in those seasons. His OPS this year is actually almost identical to his rookie year.

Alex, you really think Holliday will be almost a free signing for the MFY? You do know he's represented by one Scott Boras right!

I agree with MLBProspects. The Red Sox are loaded in the OF with guys like Kalish, Reddick. A guy like Che-Hsuan Lin is fairly underrated, and wasn't Lars Anderson supposed to be getting some work in LF? They are loaded in the OF.

That said, they should resign Bay. Best case scenario, they start seeing the guys like 2010 and early 2011. Assuming the injury clause doesn't allow Boston to opt out of the Drew deal, Drew will be in the final year of his deal and a potential tradeable asset if they so desire. It's possible that those guys take until 2012 if they slow play it, putting the timeline in a solid spot.

I agree with MLBProspects. The Red Sox are loaded in the OF with guys like Kalish, Reddick. A guy like Che-Hsuan Lin is fairly underrated, and wasn't Lars Anderson supposed to be getting some work in LF? They are loaded in the OF.

That said, they should resign Bay. Best case scenario, they start seeing the guys like 2010 and early 2011. Assuming the injury clause doesn't allow Boston to opt out of the Drew deal, Drew will be in the final year of his deal and a potential tradeable asset if they so desire. It's possible that those guys take until 2012 if they slow play it, putting the timeline in a solid spot.

Posted by: Tung-Jim Wu | July 15, 2009 at 07:19 AM

I would think the best course of action would be a. extend Bay 4 or 5 more years. Move him to DH in 2011 when Papi's contract expires. Move Drew to LF and bring up Reddick to play RF full time.

Reddick is improving his plate discipline without seeing a dip in his power numbers. In fact, outside of continuing to improve his BB rates, there's nothing to suggest he's anything less than an average everyday RF with the ceiling of an elite, power hitting RF. Defensively, he has an above average arm and range perfectly equipped to handle Fenway's basin of a right field.

He might be the best positional prospect the RS have.

The Red Sox could let Bay walk and then sign Matt Holliday, thereby losing a first rounder but gaining a first rounder and a sandwich pick.

So the Sox have leverage in this negotiation.

Another consideration is that Bay has chronic bad knees. Playing in Boston's cozy left field lessens the demands on his knees and the park fits his swing.

Given that, I'd say that both parties are motivated to reach a deal. A fair deal would be 3yrs and 12.5m per with a team option for a fourth year at the same 12.5m.

Both parties *might* be better off going in a different direction, but both parties are probably comfortable enough to get a good deal done.

5 years is more than Boston wants to go. But $10 million per year is less than Bay will be willing to sign for. Therefore, I would predict that the contract will end up falling somewhere in between; let's say 4 years, $50 million, or 3 plus an option for around $13 - $14 per.

Ill take bay. who says they wont shell out more money and sign holliday and make him or drew the dh. lets not just hand holliday to the yanks just yet. There gunna be going after him like the Cards, Braves, Mets to list a few. I think the redsox need to get Bay now before he hits the market and the lose him to one of the three teams i mentioned.

yanks09 - I do not think the A's will get draft picks for Holliday. To do so Oakland will have to offer him arbitration. If he accepts the arbitration he will end up with more money than he is worth in this economy. I think the A's have to trade him if they can to get any sort of value for him, unless they are willing to keep him for another year and overpay him and hope the economy comes back around and do the same thing again next year.