Odds and Ends: Pedro, Wells, Tepesch, Zito

Rieber brings up some interesting points, but if he think Vernon Wells is one of the top 5 centerfielders in baseball he's delusional. He's barely in the top 5 in his own division.

Amazing, a baseball writer that thinks Vernon Wells is a top 5 centerfielder. I don't even know how anyone can reach that conclusion, I stopped reading as soon as I saw that.

Amazing, a baseball writer that thinks Vernon Wells is a top 5 centerfielder. I don't even know how anyone can reach that conclusion, I stopped reading as soon as I saw that.

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Yah all those gold gloves mean nothing...

"Yah all those gold gloves mean nothing... "

According to fangraphs.com, over the last 3 years Wells has the worst UZR of all MLB center fielders. C'mon, everyone knows gold gloves are a joke.

LOL

Trade Zito. Who the hell would be dump enough to take on his salary and his crappy arm?

I guess if they gave up talent to get rid of his salary then maybe someone would bite.

I have alot of trouble listening to anything that Dave Cameron is saying in that countdown after taking a look at number 40, Tommy Hanson.

"Despite a mediocre start to his major league career, Hanson is one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball. He put up video game like numbers in the minors and was the most impressive pitcher in the history of the Arizona Fall League last year. His four pitch mix contains two knockout breaking balls and an above average fastball. His lower present value and high risks push him down here, but he could easily be top 20 a year from now, especially considering he’s basically free for the next 3 years. "

While he has the right idea in noting that Hanson could be one of the games top pitchers in a few years, the first sentence is that Hanson had a mediocre start to his career. Hello, how does a 24 (or was it 27?) inning scoreless streak and a 4-0 record in 6 starts mean mediocre? How many K's does he have and isn't his ERA around 3.00? Thats almost ace-like already. I'm not sure who he was trying to fool with that one.

GoldenGlove, while I agree with your position, I think the list itself is pretty poorly constructed. He has Hanson, Heyward, and Kershaw all more valuable than A.Gon, but less valuable than James Shields.

The Giants and Blue Jays should trade Zito for Wells. Think about it for a second. The contracts are equally bad, they perform at equal levels and as bad as people say Vernon is, he is a solid ML OF, he just makes 4 times what he deserves. Zito also isn't horrible, just a joke for his contract. Maybe teh change of scenery would turn them around and honestly Wells would be a good addition for the Giants line-up.

If I'm the Blue Jays, I want nothing to do with Barry Zito.

Wells, may be a terrible contract, but Zito would get eaten alive in the AL East. As it is, he's done terrible the last few years in the weakest hitting division in the MLB. Moving a junkballer like him would probably inflate his ERA a full run.

I'm not going to even read the Mercury piece on Zito; who would be dumb enough to take on that contract; frankly, it's the worst in the game. Releasing Zito is dumb, too- you still have to play him. Wow...

Then, we have a article saying Wells is a top player in the game today. Nooo, look at the UZR, folks! Ugh, these are worse than Jeter and Hunter, which I didn't think possible- -24.0 UZR/150 last year, -31.9 UZR/150 this year. He's worth very little, in case you didn't read my above ramblings.

Well, maybe this would work, hmm? Zito for Wells, straight up, Jays pay all Zito salary, Giants pay all of Wells'. It's sounds odd, but, neat, no?

Yeah, thanks for the Fangraphs article. I'm about to read that article, they always have top notch stuff there; it's an awesome sabermetric site, personally. I just wish they had ERA+ and OPS+, though, but, I can get that from baseball-reference.com (not my site, just saying).

GoldenGlove002- Sure, Hanson has terrific traditional, non-sabermetric, stats. His stats using sabermetrics are ugly. He has very small 0.1 WAR, BABIP of .236 (which will soon spike) 85.4 LOB%, and a 5.04 FIP. Yech! He's getting very lucky, and why Dave is saying he has a VERY medicore start to his career. Nothing against you, this is more of a message to everyone, but, if you go on a site like Fangraphs, you need to understand sabermetrics, what they are, how they work, and why conventional stats like ERA and wins can be very misleading. Hanson is the poster child for sabermetrics this year. I'm a full-time sabermetrician, so, I know, hehe. What team do I work for, or do I work for a club? That's for me to know, and for you not to find out.

Agh, should have been 'pay' Zito, not 'play' him, hah. That would be kind of funny if you played him after you released him.

GoldenGlove002- Sure, Hanson has terrific traditional, non-sabermetric, stats. His stats using sabermetrics are ugly. He has very small 0.1 WAR, BABIP of .236 (which will soon spike) 85.4 LOB%, and a 5.04 FIP. Yech! He's getting very lucky, and why Dave is saying he has a VERY medicore start to his career. Nothing against you, this is more of a message to everyone, but, if you go on a site like Fangraphs, you need to understand sabermetrics, what they are, how they work, and why conventional stats like ERA and wins can be very misleading. Hanson is the poster child for sabermetrics this year. I'm a full-time sabermetrician, so, I know, hehe. What team do I work for, or do I work for a club? That's for me to know, and for you not to find out.

Posted by: UnbiasedYankee | July 15, 2009 at 10:58 PM

As a sabermetrician, you should realize that sample size is one of if not the most important component. Tommy Hanson has pitched 41 innings in the majors, any sabermetrician will tell you that he has FAR too small a sample size to reach any sort of accurate assesment about his tendencies.

"As a sabermetrician, you should realize that sample size is one of if not the most important component. Tommy Hanson has pitched 41 innings in the majors, any sabermetrician will tell you that he has FAR too small a sample size to reach any sort of accurate assesment about his tendencies."

Yeah, I was about to say this. I want to see about 60-70 IP or so before making any judgment on Hanson and whether he is "ready" or not. Give him a bit more of a chance.

If his numbers look like Porcello's or Brett Anderson's, he belongs in MLB. If they look like Trevor Cahill's , he needs to be demoted ASAP.

Vernon Wells is a top 5 CF? He's hitting .263 with 9 homers, decent runs scored. Speaking conservatively, he's in the bottom half of ML CF defensively.

So there are only 4 CF that are better? Let me try:

Upton, Ellsbury, AJones, Beltran, Granderson, Sizemore, Kemp, Hunter, McLouth, and Victorino? There are ten, and they're just the locks. Many people would rather have McCutchen, Rasmus, Rowand, Cameron, Gutierrez, etc. as well.

Yankeee fans, and some of their writers, are completely oblivious. Gardner and Melky aren't prospects, folks.

Yeah... I mean over the next few years. I don't expect Hanson to do well the rest of the year. I like the kid, though. I'm just thinking the Braves might be in for a little unpleasant surprise soon.

"i think zito fits with the mets, another player that has a good carreer then someone overpays that player so he sucks for example carlos beltran, pedro martinez,carlos delgado,and cliff floyd wen he played for the mets and sucked wit them, johan santana so so kinda."

Beltran hasn't exactly sucked since joining the Mets...he's probably been the best centerfielder in baseball in that span. Delgado is hurt this season, but he's easily earned his contract. Santana gets paid alot, but he's been one of the best starters in baseball since coming to NY.

UnbiasedYankee- It's unfair to compare minor league numbers. To understand those numbers you need to look FAR beyond a sabermetrics approach. Take Austin Jackson, of our own team. Do you think the coaches at AA were more interested in developing his ability as a hitter, or padding his AA stats? This is 1000x for pitchers. Developing a 2nd or 3rd pitch in game situations isn't good for your numbers. Any player who has 3 + or ++ pitches will not be in the minor leagues for long, and therefore won't have too great of a sample size to compare other players to. That's why Shelley Duncan is an All Star at AAA and you see A-Rod go 1 for 47 in a AAA rehab stint. Some people are just passing through...

Yankeee fans, and some of their writers, are completely oblivious. Gardner and Melky aren't prospects, folks.

Posted by: Chief | July 15, 2009 at 11:25 PM
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Anthony Rieber is an idiot, but what's your point? Whoever refered to Gardner (a rookie) or Cabrera (3rd or 4th year) as prospects? Yanks are long, long, long shots to acquire Halladay but I also think we have to consider that a package INCLUDING a young mlb player surrounded by high upside prospects might be appealing to the Jays. I think they obviously have a good foundation and can be a decent team in 2 or 3 years. I don't think they plan on ripping these apart and starting brand new.

And PS.....Cabrera IS better than Vernon Wells right now...

Melky- 246 at bats: .285/.347 8 hrs

Wells- 365 at bats: .263/.312 9 hrs

plus Melky is a better defender @ $2 mil a year and only an idiot would assume $100 milion worth of salary just to get 1 1/2 years worth of Halladay.

2nd that midtown. Why didn't Kawakami write this article on Wednesday? The day after Zito pitched 8.1 innings shutout ball against the Marlins. He waited until Zito was blown up by the worst hitting team in baseball. Of all the things to write about with the 2009 Giants Zito is the least story.

Zito has 10 starts giving up 3 runs or less. On father's day he had a no-no thru the 6th. His role on this team is to be the 4th or 5th starter. To expect anything else is foolish. The Giants aren't/can't trade or release him. There stuck with the league's most expensive 5th starter.

id almost go out on a limb and say Najer Morgan has more upside then Vernon Wells

GoldenGlove002,

Here, I also looked up a rundown of Jeff Francoeurs career if his BAbip is adjusted to his Career normal (which happened to be .300). I found it quite interesting – you may as well.

Normalized .300 BAbip – .272/.310/.521/.832 in 2005
Normalized .300 BAbip - .272/.305/.461/.765 in 2006
Normalized .300 BAbip - .263/.310/.414/.725 in 2007
Normalized .300 BAbip - .259/.313/.379/.692 in 2009
Normalized .300 BAbip - .270/.300/.372/.672 in 2009

Career Total .300 BAbip - .266/.308/.424/.732

When yearly BAbip matches his career total (not too surprisingly, the League Average), we see a guy who has basically held a .260-.275 BA and .300-.315 OBP with steadily declining power his entire career.

Of course, again, that assumes all extra/missing hits are singles since I couldn’t realistically account for extra base hits (only 2Bs and 3Bs are even possibilities) which didn’t take place/should be removed. But the extra/missing hit totals were not that high, so this is probably pretty sound. (and it really is pretty deflating to those holding out hope that Francoeur really was what he showed during his lucky 05 and 07 seasons, isnt it?)

"Anthony Rieber of Newsday.com argues that the Yankess are in a unique position to land Roy Halladay - if they are willing to eat the contract of Vernon Wells."

Isn't this true for any team? And there are teams much better fit to deal with the Vernon Wells problem.

Not only that, but if it were that simple, any team that's close probably would try to jump right on it.

I agree with Ben's posts earlier. Roy will be a Philly before this year is over. They need him most and will be willing to cough up the most. They are one more starting pitcher (after Pedro) from making it a race between the Phillies and Dodgers in the NL and leaving everyone else behind. Right now, I don't see any NL teams that can beat the Dodgers. However (besides the Angels and maybe Rangers) I don't see the Dodgers as really holding up against any of the competitive AL teams (Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Twins).

How about the Dodgers for a surprise Halladay contender? They have the young talent and most certainly should be going for the win this year. They already have a solid pitching staff, but there is no one including Kershaw and Billingsly and whoever else is in their rotation currently (haven't been paying much NL attention this year) that can even be mentioned on the same page as Roy Halladay. Not only that, but look what Halladay did with Burnett? Perhaps some of that teaching could rub off on the Dodgers very young pitching staff.

UZR is a joke stat...please get off it. the idiot that developed it should be shot...

What would be Yankees payroll, if they did acquire Wells, and Halladay?

"Barry Zito is a competent back end of the rotation starter and may be the best 5th starter in all of baseball."

Brad Penny would like a word.