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Some links for the afternoon...
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Why, Rosenthal is obvious. The A's are trading a player who should easily put up 2 WAR throughout the rest of the season PLUS two draft picks. Even if the picks don't involve a first rounder, they're still worth a lot.
If they're not getting at least the draft picks' worth, they have no reason to trade him.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 17, 2009 at 02:18 PM
the braves can afford to deal a starter, (medlen, lowe, kawakami) to get a bat like ludwick, or freddy sanchez. But some of the braves pitchers need to stay in atlatna(hudson, hanson, jurrjens, vazquez). Wren does not need to make a block buster to get like holliday or a gon. But he does need to get a bat. Mabie Freddy Sanchez, Alex Rios, Josh Willingham, or Ryan Ludwick?
Posted by: BrentWt34 | July 17, 2009 at 02:19 PM
I disagree. They can trade vasquez, get a good power hitter, not someone like freddy sanchez. Ludwick would be good, but not gonna happen. They would still have the best pitching in the NL east
Posted by: WS2009 | July 17, 2009 at 02:24 PM
Thank you Robothal, for writing another 100% obvious article. Seriously?
Posted by: Ororis | July 17, 2009 at 02:26 PM
It's absolutely "mind-bottling" what they pay Rosenthal to do.....
Posted by: DW | July 17, 2009 at 02:27 PM
I think Billy Beane might be over playing his hand at this point. He has possibly one of the greatest eyes for baseball talent ever, and was a genius in running a mid market team, but I think maybe the game is passing him by at this point. The moves he has made lately just seem silly and the A's are just down right awful at this point.
Its a different age....teams do not jump on trades and part with their prospects like they used to.
It was obvious the A's had no shot to contend this year so why trade for Holliday? I mean Street himself will probably command just as much as teams would be willing to give for Holliday at this point.
It just doesn't add up, even for Beane
Posted by: yanks09 | July 17, 2009 at 02:37 PM
@yanks 09
Actually, it does. Beane was ready to "let the kids play" this year but was under pressure from the owner to buy a "known" offense, which he did, but no one thought Giambi, Nomar, Cabrera and to a lesser extent Holliday, would all flop so hard in the first half.
"Its a different age....teams do not jump on trades and part with their prospects like they used to."
Right, and thats why all this Holliday trade is pure media speculation, its journalists scraping together a word count just to earn their pay (speaking of the game passing people by, are journalists ever relevant anymore?). Beane has said since day one that he hasnt had good draft picks since 1999 or so and would have to be blown away in any deal for Holliday. From DAY ONE Beane has said he wouldnt be trading Holliday unless he'd get a better offer than 2 draft picks could get him. Holliday is a notoriou 2nd half masher (and look he hit a HR in game 1 of the second half, expect more of the same).
A big problem with baseball writers is that they always, on queue, forget how LONG a season is and assume well, if a guys hitting .220 who usually hits .300 now then he's going to hit .220 for the whole year. Holliday is a perfect case study here. I can almost gaurantee you his end of year numbers will be very respectable, because of his history. The media will tell you he's a flop. We will see who's right in October...
Posted by: PL | July 17, 2009 at 02:50 PM
"It was obvious the A's had no shot to contend this year so why trade for Holliday? I mean Street himself will probably command just as much as teams would be willing to give for Holliday at this point."
Again, short-sightedness amongst journalists will tell you the A's had "no shot this year" but thanks to the unbalanced schedule, the A's only really have to be better than 3 teams to contend. With a giant chunk of games against those 3 teams, its easy to contend in the small division.
And cmon, why WOULDNT he trade for Holliday? One of the top 20 players in the game? All he gave up was his FAILED closer (Street was just awful in the tougher AL last year and lost his job), Greg Smith is lost at sea and Carlos Gonzalez is toolsy with a faulted game that could come around with time, but is absolutely worth giving up for a top 20 hitter. The deal is still great for Oakland because of the high draft picks for Holliday, and the addition of Holliday for a year in which he would have given them a shot to contend if only Cabrera OPSd 700 and Cust and Giambi 850. All those 3 have struggled mightily.
Crazy throught: Oakland isnt even technically out of it, they can go 48-27 and join the pennant race, with the arms they have (overlooked was the success of Braden, Outman, Gio Gonzalez & Anderson) and if Giambi, Cust, Holliday and Cabrera's find the water level, this team can still make some noise.
Posted by: PL | July 17, 2009 at 02:58 PM
Braves do have good pitching, but there isn't one bat out there that is going to make enough difference to get them into the playoffs. They need to pick up a couple guys: a high OPS player and a masher (Dunn?).
Posted by: jjpk | July 17, 2009 at 02:59 PM
If the Braves really want Holliday, which IMO isn't the route to go, then they could get him for a package of Jordan Schaffer, Kelly Johnson, Luis Valdez, and an A ball pitcher with upside like Spuilli or maybe they give them Rohrbrough. They keep the core and don't mortgage the future while still making a very solid offer. If they do that however they need to give him a 2 year extension, but that would give them no money this Off-season. Personnally I'd rather get Aubry Huff, who will be cheaper in terms of players and financially and then dump Kotchman off to someone who has a stud line-up, and would like his GG caliber defense.
Posted by: bravoboy10 | July 17, 2009 at 03:27 PM
@bravoboy10
Is that package worth more to the A's than 2 draft picks? I dont think it is. Oakland needs a SS like whoa and Yunel would be perfect and is the kind of player they are looking for in a Holliday deal. Kelly Johnson has zero place to play in Oakland unless he magically becomes a gold glove 3B.
I think the question should be, who from Oakland should be added to that deal to make it more appealing to the Braves? FDLS? Henry Rodriguez? Andrew Bailey? Braves fans, who from Oakland tips that deal into green-light territory?
Posted by: PL | July 17, 2009 at 03:38 PM
"I think Billy Beane might be over playing his hand at this point. He has possibly one of the greatest eyes for baseball talent ever, and was a genius in running a mid market team, but I think maybe the game is passing him by at this point. The moves he has made lately just seem silly and the A's are just down right awful at this point."
What?
Yeah, expecting four players (Giambi, Cabrera, Holliday, Cust) to drop a combined FOUR HUNDRED OPS POINTS from last season's numbers was expected. And Cabrera to lose his entire ability to play defense. And Bob Geren taking his stupidity to epic levels by telling Cust to change his plate approach (which was working REALLY well for the last 2 years, since Oakland is like the biggest pitchers' park in the AL).
"It was obvious the A's had no shot to contend this year so why trade for Holliday? I mean Street himself will probably command just as much as teams would be willing to give for Holliday at this point."
The only people who are saying that are moron sports analysts of the Olney/Rosenthal/Steve Phillips/Joe Morgan irk.
Even the most elite closers are not worth more than 3 WAR over the course of a season. Holliday is easily a 4 WAR player this year despite his first half "slump", and has been worth way more than that every other year of his career.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 17, 2009 at 03:55 PM
PL, there isn't a trade I would like. I know there really is, but not one I can think of off the top of my head.
Posted by: WS2009 | July 17, 2009 at 04:30 PM
PL, there isn't a trade I would like. I know there really is, but not one I can think of off the top of my head.
Posted by: WS2009 | July 17, 2009 at 04:30 PM
"Is that package worth more to the A's than 2 draft picks? I dont think it is. Oakland needs a SS like whoa and Yunel would be perfect and is the kind of player they are looking for in a Holliday deal. Kelly Johnson has zero place to play in Oakland unless he magically becomes a gold glove 3B."
I'd say so, Schafer and Rohrbough are two highly regarded prospects in the braves system. Johnson and Valdez would be more throw ins, Kelly could actually play LF and take Holliday's spot for the rest of the year. Yunel may be perfect but he's far more valuable to the braves than holliday would be
Posted by: bravesfan22193 | July 17, 2009 at 04:45 PM
Braves do have good pitching, but there isn't one bat out there that is going to make enough difference to get them into the playoffs. They need to pick up a couple guys: a high OPS player and a masher (Dunn?).
Posted by: jjpk | July 17, 2009 at 02:59 PM
Try a different combination of Nats players, how about Nick Johnson and Josh Willingham for Casey Kotchman and prospects. That'd be a significant offensive upgrade and you don't lose much in the way of defense. The package you give up wouldn't include valuable pieces to your future and still improves the club, whereas trading for a dunn like player is going to be costly
Posted by: bravesfan22193 | July 17, 2009 at 04:49 PM
"I'd say so, Schafer and Rohrbough are two highly regarded prospects in the braves system. Johnson and Valdez would be more throw ins, Kelly could actually play LF and take Holliday's spot for the rest of the year."
Well thats the thing, Holliday is currently blocking Buck AND Cunningham, Oakland is in no need of OF options at all.
Schafers a nice prospect but ultimately Oakland has a giant glut of OFers in the farm that I havent even mentioned yet (Doolittle, Corey Brown) so getting him isnt smart by Oaklands standpoint.
Honestly if Yunel isnt going to be involved theres simply no match here. Beane's already come off with the short end of the stick with Atlanta trades, theres no reason at all to do it again. I'd rather Oakland keep Holliday and use the draft picks on the best 3B an SS's available.
Posted by: PL | July 17, 2009 at 05:16 PM
The Braves can afford to trade pitching right now. The only problem is if they trade away vazquez their bullpens ineffectiveness will shine even more Vazquez eats up innings and the braves can't lose him with the way their bullpen is between the 6th to 8th inning right now. That being said Medlin would be the choice to take over for any pitcher on the Trade market, but he can't eat up the innings without his commmand at this point.
Posted by: ADAM723 | July 17, 2009 at 05:17 PM
If I were Oakland Id try everything in my power to get either JJ Hardy or Alcides Escobar from Milwaukee. I dont think Holliday is a match in MILW, but maybe in a 3 teamer? What does everyone think? What does Oakland have to do to land one of MILW's SS's?
Posted by: PL | July 17, 2009 at 05:20 PM
^^Didn't know about Oakland's OF depth. I'd say Yunel Escobar, Mike Gonzalez, and two decent prospect (8-15 rated in braves system) for Matt Holliday, Jemile Weeks, and Andrew Bailey is something I'd consider if I were the Braves but nothing less really and that's a high price to pay for Oak. However you still get your comp. picks (gonzalez is a type A FA as well), a young stud at SS, and a couple of decent specs. The Braves get Holliday for half a season, Bailey as an insurance policy for if Soriano leaves, and our future 2B. Before any braves fan freaks out and says we don't have a replacement for escobar, i'd also go out and get a jack wilson, marco scutaro, caesar izturis, etc as a stop gap until we can fill the position. My question to A's fans: Is this a fair deal?
Posted by: bravesfan22193 | July 17, 2009 at 05:23 PM
no, the braves dont need to trade schafer because he is the will be a stud in 2 or 3 years. No body wants Kelly johnson so dont throw him in there. The only package i would send to the A's for holliday is Kris Medlen, Luis Valdez, the best Catcher we have in the farm system(because he is blocked by mccan), and another prospect. And i would want cash considerations also in return from the A's
Posted by: BrentWt34 | July 17, 2009 at 05:23 PM
That's not a very good trade for Oakland. At all
Posted by: WS2009 | July 17, 2009 at 05:27 PM
Fact of the matter is this.....what made Beane such a genius is that he foresaw players rising or dropping. He was not able to see that Street just had a bad year, that Cust and Giambi really aren't productive offense players and when combined the lineup has become abysmal, that Cabrera is older and way past his prime, and that his young pitching staff could not be relied on to be rocks yet.
Billy Beane is a legend there is no doubt about it. But all great players, owners, GM's eventually lose their touch, skill, insight etc. and I think we are witnessing the end of a great mans legendary run.
Fact....you can't stay at the top forever....I know there is a ton of nostalgia and good feelings surrounding Beane as there should be but its time like these where you wish someone would go out on top.
He is the GM for the A's, hence he is responsible for the product he puts out there. A good GM will never say "well there is no way I could have seen that coming" and what made Beane great is that he always did see it coming.
You look at his draft resume and he really hasn't had a big find since the late 90's. So we are basically praising what Beane has done in the past (and it was a whole lot that he did) instead of gauging him on what he did now.
You get a free pass for a while, but sooner or later you have to start accepting responsibility for not performing in the now.
Posted by: yanks09 | July 17, 2009 at 06:20 PM
The thing is, Oaklands' farm system is currently in the top 3 in baseball. They are strong everywhere and have players with high ceilings everywhere EXCEPT 3B and SS, which is what I figure Beane will use his draft picks for. The A's dont need catchers, they have Suzuki, who is already good and making great progress as he matures as an everyday player, and the mashing Josh Donaldson at AA, who may get moved to LF or 3B (if he can hack it).
Yunel would be perfect and Id definitely ship Holliday, Cardenas and Cabrera for Yunel and a 3-8 prospect and a 8-15 one in a nanosecond. Matt Holliday is still Matt Holliday, a 2nd half masher who will propel the Braves offense into playoff contention.
I always thought that Beane might flip Holliday for another type A too, so the Gonzalez flip may work as well, for a long time I was thinking he might go to STL and try to grab Ankiel and Glaus for Holliday under those lines.
Posted by: PL | July 17, 2009 at 07:07 PM
yanks09-
A few points.
1. Beane wasn't selling low on Street. Good starting outfielders are almost always worth more than closers, even top ones like Papelbon. If anything, Beane sold at fair value or higher on Street. And, looking at how Gonzalez is performing, it doesn't look like Beane sold low on him either, as his stock continues to fall.
2. There are things GMs can forecast and things GMs can't. GMs can forecast some things, but can't forecast others. Beane could expect a mild OPS drop from Giambi and Cabrera, but not the sharp combined 200 points from these guys. And a guy who has a track record of being a good defender (Cabrera) suddenly losing all glove-related abilities.
If CC Sabathia were to put up an ERA and FIP above 5 for the rest of the season, nobody saw that coming.
To say that Beane could predict that Giambi wouldn't be worth his 1yr/5MM deal and Cabrera wouldn't be worth his 1yr/4MM deal is stupid.
3. It's only been 3 years since the team has been perennial contenders. The A's have made the playoffs about as recently as the Mets have. The Mets that had the second largest payroll in baseball last year.
Oh yeah the A's also have like the 2nd best farm system in baseball.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 17, 2009 at 07:16 PM
@yanks 09
"Fact of the matter is this.....what made Beane such a genius is that he foresaw players rising or dropping"
If that was true he would have never signed Eric Chavez, Arthur Rhodes or Estaban Loaiza to long term deals. The FA market has always been his biggest weakness if anything.
Cust isnt hitting because he fell victim to the stupid media not understanding how important watching pitches is in our modern pitch-counted game. He "struck out too much", which isnt a bad thing if you are K'ing on 10 pitches when an excellent SP is limited to 110 per game. He's swinging too much now and hitting more singles but also making more outs than ever. Its not Jack Cust's game, period.
Also you are completely neglecting the fact that Oakland has an utterly outstanding farm system right now, with many high ceiling players due to reach the bigs in the next year or two. This year was always going to be a wash, but instead of doing it "Billys way" which was what happened in 2008, in 2009 he was told to let the kids stay in the minors and get some well known players to bridge the gap, thats all. Sure, Beane should have stayed away from Giambi and signed Adam Dunn while he was cheap, but no one on earth would have told you Giambi would be hitting .190 on July 17, no one.
Most of Beane's mistakes are pure luck, and yes, he hasnt really had a lot of things go his way more than he would have liked. Dan Meyer could have realized his ace potential, Eric Chavez's body could have waited until he was 35-40 to break down, Daric Barton could have hit like Mark Grace in his prime like EVERY SINGLE SCOUT said he would and the FA's he signed could have performed better than expected.
Its extremely frustrating being an A's fan, thats for sure. If every ball bounced our way we'd have had at least 3 championships this decade.
Posted by: PL | July 17, 2009 at 07:17 PM
"The A's dont need catchers, they have Suzuki, who is already good and making great progress as he matures as an everyday player, and the mashing Josh Donaldson at AA, who may get moved to LF or 3B (if he can hack it). "
And the A's drafted Max Stassi, arguably the best or 2nd best catcher in the 2009 draft, who slipped due to signability, in the 4th round. I assume the A's picked him there with the assumption of forking over the cash to sign him.
And, Donaldson's been playing 3B for the last few games. Hopefully the A's decide to keep him there. And bring him up to AAA, as most of the A's prospects in AA are absolutely killing the competition.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 17, 2009 at 07:21 PM
"Cust isnt hitting because he fell victim to the stupid media not understanding how important watching pitches is in our modern pitch-counted game. He "struck out too much", which isnt a bad thing if you are K'ing on 10 pitches when an excellent SP is limited to 110 per game. He's swinging too much now and hitting more singles but also making more outs than ever. Its not Jack Cust's game, period."
Yes. Totally agree, although it was more Geren and Skaalen than anything. Beane, please can Geren. Screwing around with your team's best hitter two years in a row and a VERY good power hitter before he changed his approach has to be an automatic fire-worthy offense.
And Acta is without a job.
Posted by: melonis rex | July 17, 2009 at 07:26 PM
Melonis, a high 5 to you for being really knowledgeable about the A's....but what do you know about this catcher Joel Galarraga we just got from the mexican league whos tearing up AAA right now? Hes only been with the team 2 weeks but is just slaughtering pitching now.
Posted by: PL | July 17, 2009 at 07:43 PM
Its extremely frustrating being an A's fan, thats for sure. If every ball bounced our way we'd have had at least 3 championships this decade.
Posted by: PL | July 17, 2009 at 07:17 PM
You can say that for a lot of teams in baseball, i agree the A's have been slightly unlucky especially with these offseason moves but there have been other unlucky teams too. Also as an A's fan do you think you'd be giving up too much in the proposal i made earlier, PL?
Posted by: bravesfan22193 | July 17, 2009 at 10:00 PM
I think they just dont match up well enough anymore and it aint happening. Why would the Braves take 2 expiring contracts and give up their stud young SS with no replacement on their way?
Posted by: PL | July 17, 2009 at 11:50 PM
I meant the Bailey, Weeks, and Holliday for Gonzalez, Yunel, and 2 specs. However I agree with you, it doesn't seem like these two teams will match up for a deadline deal
Posted by: bravesfan22193 | July 18, 2009 at 12:24 AM
A's need to get MILW involved for either Hardy or Escobar for this to happen.
Posted by: PL | July 18, 2009 at 04:28 AM