Odds And Ends: Strasburg, Huff, Pedro

Pedro will have to prove it, i agree

not to nit pick but wasn't this past off-season the time to lock up bay? not now when he's having the best season of his career?

i would think that at the beginning of the season you were running the risk of signing a guy long term without the certainty that he could play in boston etc...

now, i think you run a larger risk of overpaying for a guy who is having a season whose production probably won't be matched in the future.

"One team I haven't hard that may make sense is Detroit. They certainly have a top tier major league ready starter in Rick Porcello they could offer as a starting point. Does that make sense to anyone?"

Not unless they dump Ordonez, they can't afford to add that much salary.

"now, i think you run a larger risk of overpaying for a guy who is having a season whose production probably won't be matched in the future."

Bay has always been this good except his injury plagued 2007. Think about all those years in Pittsburgh he had nobody else in the lineup and he was still hitting 30HR and driving in 90+. Now on a team like this I see nothing to suggest a drop in production.

If all its gonna take to get Huff is a fringe prospect I suggest Brian Sabean picks up the phone and calls Andy MacPhail right now to get him

@ bucsox & 04..

fair point.. i should've looked closer.

pitching hurt last year? blah blah blah.. he put up terrible numbers, hes going to be crushed in that bandbox in philly... assuming he even makes it there before slipping in the hallway to the dugout ahaha.

"A fringe prospect for Huff? No way the O's make that deal. He most likely ends up as a Type A free agent, so when he leaves he'll be worth a decent draft pick(s) - something better than a fringe prospect. MacPhail is going to hold out for at least a B-level prospect at a position of need, I have to think."

Yeah, not going to happen. MacPhail would never offer him arbitration since it will be upwards of 8 million yet again - and he will not make 8 million on the open market. And there would be no draft picks without arbitration offered. Anything you can get now is all you will walk away with.

Red Sox outfield plan:
Resign Bay for 2010 and beyond. After the 2010 season, let Drew walk and get Crawford. Move him to RF. His speed would be wasted in Fenway's LF.

Can you imagine Ellsbury and Crawford leading off the lineup? They would give pitchers (and catchers) a nervous breakdown.

"Yeah, not going to happen. MacPhail would never offer him arbitration since it will be upwards of 8 million yet again - and he will not make 8 million on the open market. And there would be no draft picks without arbitration offered. Anything you can get now is all you will walk away with."

Which is why MacPhail should accept any offer that includes a decent prospect and some salary relief.

"Resign Bay for 2010 and beyond. After the 2010 season, let Drew walk and get Crawford. Move him to RF. His speed would be wasted in Fenway's LF."

I'm guessing that a lot of teams will have interest in Carl Crawford. Everyone can use a top notch defensive outfielder with elite baserunning skills and a good offensive arsenal.

"When have the Yankees said something and went against it?"

Posted by: yanks09 | July 15, 2009 at 03:18 PM

The 2008 youth movement, going with young players (a la Red Sox, which I have no issues with). The Teixera sweepstakes; Cashman stated that Swisher would be the everyday first baseman.

If you want to stretch it, look at the manigerial career of Billy Martin. That's enough proof alone.

Keep in mind Halladay has a full NTC. He's not gonna agree to be traded unless they can work out a contract extension. T-Bay can definitely pony up the prospects but most likely not the loot. There's only a few teams out there that could afford him prospect wise and budget wise.

I keep saying this but nobody seems to be picking up on it.

Why would anyone looking for a 1B spend $8 million on half a season of Aubrey Huff when they can trade for Ryan Garko on the Indians who makes less than $1 million. Look at the stats

Huff/Garko:

SLG- .424/.442
OBP- .327/.354
wOBA- .314/.350

UZR/150: -5.6/10.1

With Martinez splitting time between 1st/C Garko is fighting for playing time this year. But with LaPorta/Brantley/Brown in AAA and Weglarz and Santana in AA, Garko doesn't look like he'll be included in the Indians future, hence they're willingness to trade him

86Mets: I agree that the draft pick could negatively affect Huff's FA options, and thats why he would accept arb. Remember that would be decided by early Dec. If he turned that down then he would have to resign for a more team favorable deal.

The O's had a $76 million dollar payroll this year, next season after factoring arb. cases and minimum guys they will be on the hook for $50 million. So they could easily fit Huff in to the equation and sign a couple guys to round out the bullpen. Also remember the O's have a lot of flexibility as well. They could trade guys like Scott, Sherrill and Wiggington as well. Freeing up plenty of other money and bringing back cheap players in return.

You are right that they don't have a need to keep him, their outfield is set, Snyder looks like the 1B of the future and Scott (while tradeable) is under team control and cheaper at DH.

Again I think they will move him for a couple solid prospects. Something like either Kunz or Davis, plus a low level guy would be enough.

delaward_bird: I agree with you in principal but Mejia is too much to ask for. He's gonna be one of their top 3 or 4 prospects next year. Evans is a maybe but I don't think it would be straight up. Evans with a Moviel and an upside arm maybe. Evans seems to me like a younger version of Salazar. Solid back-up but not a starter.

Also I don't think Scribble had a very different argument that you. I think he was just pointing out that the O's would value getting the $3.5 million left on Huff's deal off their books to spend on other things. He mentioned a decent prospect which is what Davis, Kunz and to a lesser degree Evans represent.

Fringe prospect? Okay, we'll take Huff in Seattle for Gaby Hernandez or Blake Nation or Ricky Orta their choice. They like arms and that's three fringe guys, heck they can take two. Griffey can play LF for 7 innings 5 days of the week with Langerhans getting the spot start and the other 1 or 2.

Obviously Huff would DH and maybe get some games at 1B or 3B from time to time.

YF78 I couldn't agree more. Halladay doesn't guarantee a WS title, and would pretty much set the farm back to the halcyon days of Eric Duncan and Bam Bam Muelens. I'd much rather take my chances strengthening the team's core through the farm rather than slapping on ridiculous patches every offseason.

At the end of the day, it's a gamble to offer him arbitration. But McPhail should do it. I'd think it will take a lot more than a fringe prospect to move Huff. Nothing stellar. Say Huff to Mets for Nick Evans or Jennry Mejia.

Posted by: delaware_bird | July 15, 2009 at 04:16 PM

Evans is exactly the type of fringe/low level prospect that McNeal was refering to, Mejia on the other hand is a guy that would be in the top ten in any system in baseball. Once again, whether or not the O's have 8 million to spend is not a big question, I'm sure they do. That 8 million could be spent alot better than offering Huff arbitration though, after last offseason and the economy still being in the tank, I can't see how he'd reject it. That 8 million could be spent in so many better ways, even if they just applied it to their draft signings so they could acquire better talent would be a huge benefit, much more than one season of Huff.

"Fringe prospect? Okay, we'll take Huff in Seattle for Gaby Hernandez or Blake Nation or Ricky Orta their choice. They like arms and that's three fringe guys, heck they can take two. Griffey can play LF for 7 innings 5 days of the week with Langerhans getting the spot start and the other 1 or 2.

Posted by: Iknowalilsomethingaboutsomething "

Those are def. fringe prospects but I don't see the O's moving Huff for guys like that. Little upside or projection. Orta and Nation could be the 2nd or 3rd piece but you probably need to give up someone like Carp to make the deal work.

If the Yankees really want a dominant team and if they REALLY REALLY REALLY want to win a championship, they will do whatever it takes to get Halladay. Could you imagine? 1)Halladay,2)CC,3)A.J.,4)Wang/Joba,5)Pettitte.

As far as the Strasburg stiutation goes, all i have to say is the Nationals are throwing away there HUGE oppurtunity to, well finally get to 30 wins!

And Huff i think could go to Arizona, Because Huff is better than Tracy, and They have the "talent" to offer for him.

"Fringe prospect? Okay, we'll take Huff in Seattle for Gaby Hernandez or Blake Nation or Ricky Orta their choice. They like arms and that's three fringe guys, heck they can take two. Griffey can play LF for 7 innings 5 days of the week with Langerhans getting the spot start and the other 1 or 2.

Posted by: Iknowalilsomethingaboutsomething "

Those are def. fringe prospects but I don't see the O's moving Huff for guys like that. Little upside or projection. Orta and Nation could be the 2nd or 3rd piece but you probably need to give up someone like Carp to make the deal work.

Posted by: Steveo26 | July 15, 2009 at 04:56 PM

What about Denny Almonte...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=almont001den

and Blake Nation...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=nation001bla

to take Aubrey Huff + $1.6MM (the amount of his potential increase from $8MM if he accepts the arbitration), so we won't have to pay more than $8MM if we don't get the prospects. They still get to save $2.4MM and the worry of him accepting, which would net them NOTHING if they don't take the chance.

And Huff i think could go to Arizona, Because Huff is better than Tracy, and They have the "talent" to offer for him.

Posted by: Yanks09champs! | July 15, 2009 at 05:09 PM

That's what free agency is for, but the Diamondbacks aren't going to buy him in free agency or trade for him. Simply put whomever gets him will offer arbitration and the D-Backs aren't going to take the financial hit along side with the loss of a draft pick for his Type-A ass. However, Seattle could use another lefty bat and Huff likes the cleanup spot. He could get time at up to 4 positions and DH, which really wouldn't be too bad for $4MM. It's also Huff's last chance conceivably at getting a multi-year deal. He'd have a chance in the middle of the Mariners lineup hitting behind Ichiro, Lopez Branyan, et al. to drive in 100 RBI and his value could be better than we all assume. Huff in the second half hit .335/.380/.587 with 85 H, 43 R, 20 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 50 RBI, 19 BB, 38 SO in only 65 games (40% of a season).

"Dan it's not just his '09 and '10 salary, he's gonna want a bigass extension too. Can the Rays afford to pay him 19 or 20 million a year for the next 5 years? I honestly don't think so."

I'll agree on that one, because Tampa, no matter how much they win, will have a hard time becoming enough of a baseball town to make the money. But you never know.

It would really all come down to Halladay, and what circumstances he would waive his no-trade for. If he wants one last shot to beat the Red Sox and Yanks, and quite likely the best shot he's going to get at a World Series title, that might be it. If he wants the security of a long-term deal, he would probably opt for the Phillies or Sox.

"Those are def. fringe prospects but I don't see the O's moving Huff for guys like that. Little upside or projection. Orta and Nation could be the 2nd or 3rd piece but you probably need to give up someone like Carp to make the deal work."

I think that I would rather keep Carp around then move him for Huff and his salary.

Carp has continued to show power and patience at every level, and he could be a .290/.380/.450 type hitter at this level, someone kind of in the Lyle Overbay mold.

Huff is decent but I would rather just give the at bats to Carp and/or Clement and keep the talent and money.

Posted by: scribbletone | July 15, 2009 at 06:51 PM

I think Carp will have more power personally... I'm thinking he might actually be more of an Adam Lind type. The type of guy who projects to 25 HR, 100 RBI seasons with a 80-90 SO to 100-110 BB ratio, of course on down years those numbers would flip and he'd probably strikeout twice as much.

I would rather keep Carp in AAA for now and when he is FORCING his way onto the roster, then we bring him up. No need to waste control years so that he can sit on the bench. When he's tearing it up in AAA next year, we'll MAKE a place for him on the team. For now though, we need a "been there, done that, got the t-shirt" kind of guy to give us a middle of the order presence. They might have ruined Balentien with the stunt of batting him cleanup and Carp isn't ready for that burden yet, give him a couple years in the majors and then he could fourish in that role.

I think a 5-tool 20-year old CF prospect who is showing power and base stealing ability in A ball is more than enough to get Baltimore to the table and then it's a matter of picking a 2nd piece like Orta, Nation, or Hernandez. The money doesn't bother me, we're already 5/8 of the way through the season pretty much, so he has what, 3MM left on his deal? The team shed $20MM in the offseason, so they can bite the bullet on some players to get us over the hump. In fact, we might be in the best position in baseball to add payroll. We have the Japanese t.v. contracts and we're going to have 2 million tickets sold, probably closer to 2.5 million if they go crazy before the trade deadline and add some bats. Technically we could add Brandon Phillips (SS), Mark Teahen (3B/UT, backup plan if Beltre doesn't resign), and Huff (DH/LF platoon with Griffey where they each play 3 in the field and 3 at DH per week) and the total cost for those 3 would be $6MM, which would put us around a $105MM payroll. I think for the amount of talent and potential we would have, it's worth it. A lineup of...

Ichiro
Phillips
Branyan
Huff
Gutierrez
Lopez
Griffey
Teahen
Johjima

Johnson
Langerhans
Cedeno
Sweeney

would be very potent and more than enough for the Mariners to win 95 games this year if their pitching staff is only 85% as effective as they were, when they go through the second half.

"Dan it's not just his '09 and '10 salary, he's gonna want a bigass extension too. Can the Rays afford to pay him 19 or 20 million a year for the next 5 years? I honestly don't think so."

I'll agree on that one, because Tampa, no matter how much they win, will have a hard time becoming enough of a baseball town to make the money. But you never know.

It would really all come down to Halladay, and what circumstances he would waive his no-trade for. If he wants one last shot to beat the Red Sox and Yanks, and quite likely the best shot he's going to get at a World Series title, that might be it. If he wants the security of a long-term deal, he would probably opt for the Phillies or Sox.

Posted by: dan | July 15, 2009 at 07:38 PM

------------------------------------------------------------

Just a thought, but Halladay might hold a grudge against Toronto for trading him and he might take a paycut for the opportunity to keep beating on them. He says that contending is most important to him, so if the Rays can win the east with him, he'd probably take less money to be on a team that could sustain a winning atmosphere every year with a strong farm system to fill holes with.

If they built a stadium for the Rays, like the one they were going to build, then they could easily pack the fans in. If they were to get Disney to put it's name on the stadium it would be a huge profit. Even better yet, they could build it closer to Orlando and work out a tourist migration from Disney World to the Rays game as part of the naming rights. They could sell tickets in Disney World for the Rays and then have a monorail built to the stadium from a southern point of Disney World. Many tourists who go to ammusement parks feel like sitting down in the afternoon to take a break before seeing more attractions. It would be the perfect opportunity for them to relax for 3 hours before going back through the ammusement park again. I would modify the schedule with MLB approval to having a significant amount of day games like how the Cubs schedule is setup, if not more games during the day. The point is that there is a way to raise revenue if they wanted to and Disney would get their greedy little hands on a chunk of money that wouldn't be available to the Rays without their help... It would be a win-win situation.

I would imagine that they could have promotional nights geared at Disney World, like 1/2 off Rays tickets when you provide a season pass or entrance pass dated within the previous 24-48 hours. People that buy Rays season tickets get a season pass to Disney World free, what's the cost $200 or $300 for the Disney World Pass and the season ticket is $1500 or more. They could even get Disney World to give half as a sales commission. Business has always been about taking chances and if the Rays were to hook on with a big company like Disney, they would see their profits increase to where Halladay's eventual payday wouldn't even be 25% of the payroll.

Sidenote: For those of you that aren't aware, there was talk of them putting the Rays stadium closer to Orlando or St. Petersburg, but the location wasn't the sticking point, it was getting law makers to sign off on the tax that made it a challenge.

86 Mets, please dont encourage him.

"He's not baseballguru"

Yeah he is.

You should be able to tell from the name alone - tad disappointed in you, I am.

If you look at the trade there's a reason for the guys I chose.

1) After this season, Huff would turn into two 1st round picks in the 2010 draft.

2) Teahen would add an extra 1st round pick in the 2011 draft.

3) If Beltre walks then that's minimum one 1st round pick in the 2010 draft.

4) Bedard and/or Washburn walking would be anywhere from two to four 1st round picks.

5) The only free agents that would make sense to the Mariners this offseason are type B players which wouldn't cost the Mariners draft picks (picks are slotted into the comp. A round of the draft obviously, but the Mariners don't get less to select with) or no status free agents that don't cost draft picks to the signing team.

6) Phillips is under control for 4 more years, which means RF, CF, SS, 2B, C are taken care of for the next couple years, assuming they re-sign Beltre or extend Teahen, then 3B is taken care of for the long term. Saunders will be up next year to take over LF and will have 6 control years. Branyan could probably be re-signed for 3 years @ $10MM or Griffey for renewable 1 year contracts worth $2MM plus incentives based on games played plus attendence (same deal as this year), the one they keep is the DH, if they keep both Branyan stays at 1B until Griffey retires and then Carp takes over 1B.

The reason the Reds will want to move Brandon is because his contract jumps up to just under $7MM next season and then to $11MM in 2011 and $12MM in 2012 with a $1MM buyout. Doesn't sound like a lot, but when you consider that next years payroll is projected to be $72MM for the 2010 season, not including the holes they have to fill. Of all the big contracts, only Harang (if they eat money and take a small return of prospects) and Phillips are moveable contracts.

The Mariners have the prospects to get the players I listed, it's whether they WANT to make those trades. Phillips isn't untouchable. I read the list of Jocketty's untouchables and Phillips wasn't one of them, that's why he acquired Richar from the White Sox. After 2010 about 10 of their players will be close to going to arbitration and that's also going to bump the payroll. As for next season, they are already obligated to the same dollars they are this year and that's with losing 5 to 6 guys through declining options and/or free agency.

Let's just prove something really quickly...

Brandon Phillips and Arthur Rhodes to Seattle for Greg Halman, Wlad Balentien, Jharmidy DeJesus, Nathan Adcock, and Shawn Kelley.

That's a guy who was a Top 50 prospect (Balentien) and still would be if not for reaching the number of at bats to lose rookie status, a B, a B-, a C+, and a C. Kelley could be the setup guy for the next couple years and become their closer after Cordero is gone. Balentien gives them the power hitting RH OF bat they've wanted, he's young, controllable for years, and has a lot of upside, and they get Halman who is about 2 years away and will be the CF of the future for them if they make this trade. I think Halman reminds me of Cameron with less patients at the plate, but with time he'll start to walk more, he's only 21.

Mark Teahen could be had for Jeff Clement, Garrett Olson, and Roy Corcoran. I guarantee KC would jump on that deal.

The last guy Huff because of his contract and that Orioles being reluctant to offer arbitration this offseason, it really makes him lose trade value. So it might take as we talked about earlier, Almonte, Nation, and Orta for Aubrey, TOPS. No more than that type of prospect trio, maybe difference faces, but the talent level is more than fair for what they are burdening the Mariners with salary wise.

I am pretty sure I just overpaid in all of those transactions. 3 B's and 2 C's is a lot for a guy who will cost just over $20MM through 2011 and is an .800 OPS hitter with an above average to GG defense ability. Also Seattle would be eating $3MM of Rhodes salary.

The point is that those trades are more than fair, yet Seattle still would have Juan Ramirez, Michael Pineda, Phillippe Aumont, Adam Moore, Carlos Triunfel, Michael Saunders, Mike Carp, Josh Fields, and Maikel Cleto. That's tons of extra special arms and a backup to every position should an injury occur.

It's not IF the Mariners can make a deal like that happening, it's IF they WILL make a deal like that happen. Teahen and Huff are not even yes or no, it's a guaranteed trigger puller if they lay out those packages. So the question is... WHY NOT make those trades if they can help the team and leave them with the enviable problem of having too much pitching and too many bats.

The Sox better lock him up. I am a Pirate fan and had too see our best player go. A good guy, a team player, and a major contributer. Granted playing in Fenway has bloated his numbers a bit, but they had better lock him up, because the Yankees will just out of spite.