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« Discussion: What Should Braves Do With Their Pitching Surplus? | Main | Probable Type A Free Agents »
Elias Rankings Update
At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats. Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league. The rankings cover a two-year time period. They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither. If you'd like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.
Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year. Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law. Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors. Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through September 1st, 2009. The rankings will change over the remainder of the season. Keep in mind that if players change leagues, they are ranked in their new league.
Speaking of players who changed leagues, Eddie is not sure what ranking Jim Thome will garner in the NL. Thome was a Type A in the AL, but Eddie's best guess is that he will be neither Type A nor B in the NL. The catch is that there is no precedent for an NL player with no games played at any position. But if Thome is grouped with the NL's 1B/OF category, he'll fall below Type B status and draft pick compensation will not come into play. Also, Jose Contreras is now in the NL and is neither Type A nor B.
Click here to see the latest Elias Rankings.
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FYI -
Brad Penny just threw 8 shutout innings against the Phils!
Nice job!!
Posted by: 55saveslives | September 02, 2009 at 08:48 PM
Since Penny was not added until 9/1, there will be no compensation for him no matter how well he pitches. - Says Eddie.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 02, 2009 at 08:55 PM
The National League should not even count as the majors at this point. Any AL reject can hack it in the NL.
HOF for pitchers that only played in the minors (NL) should be out of the question.
Posted by: slashieboy | September 02, 2009 at 09:26 PM
LOL @ slashie
Posted by: 55saveslives | September 02, 2009 at 09:35 PM
Wasn't Brad Penny acquired on 8/31 or does that not matter?
Posted by: TimmaH55 | September 02, 2009 at 09:41 PM
Sorry but Penny and Smoltz are no better noy than they were last week, now they are in different league. A league that is not up to par.
Could the AAA be harder to pitch in ERA wise at this point? I mean the defense is gonna be worse behind you and they won't give up so many runs by bunting all the time.
Posted by: slashieboy | September 02, 2009 at 09:45 PM
Makes me think twice about the Phils if they can't hit a guy whose only pitch is a fastball with no movement.
Posted by: fitz | September 02, 2009 at 09:55 PM
fitz did you watch the game tonight?
Posted by: 55saveslives | September 02, 2009 at 10:50 PM
Why would Thome be a Type A in the AL but a no comp free agent in the NL?
Posted by: jicoleman84 | September 02, 2009 at 11:47 PM
"Why would Thome be a Type A in the AL but a no comp free agent in the NL?"
Different players. They use a formula that ranks the DH/ 1B/ and OF players in five categories (1B and OF n the NL): PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI. The top 20 pct are Type A, next 20 pct are Type B, and everyone else is unrated. The NL has more players, because they have two more teams, but there are no DH's in the NL- just OF and 1B. When the formula is calculated, Thome falls lower on the NL list than he does in the AL.
Posted by: Tigerdog | September 03, 2009 at 01:19 AM
"fitz did you watch the game tonight?"
Wanted to here, but was too busy going back and forth with the Sox and Fish games and burned out far too much with games to bother watching replay on mlb.com..
Did he have his curve working and how hard was his FB if somebody does not mind?
Wanted him to do good in Boston, was one of my fav's when he was with the Fish years ago and you can't help but respect anybody that can take a hard line drive off of the center of his chest, shake it right off and stay in the game for a couple more innings. Contrary to what some of the LAD fans here say, this guy is as tough as nails when he is healthy.
Posted by: johns | September 03, 2009 at 04:44 AM
In the American League, Jim Thome counted as a DH. Look at the other players with DH on the list. That's who Thome was getting his score against. When ranked with David Ortiz, Jason Kubel, Travis Hafner, Aubrey Huff and others, he comes out fairly well, getting about 70-80% of possible points.
Move to the National League. There is no DH category, so I'm assuming Thome counts as a 1B. Rather than Jason Kubel being the best player he is going against, his score comes from where he ranks against the likes of Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez. Rather than being one of the best of about 20 players at his position, he is now toward the middle of the pack in relation to the NL 1B crop. Thus the fall...
Does that make sense?
Posted by: ebajek85 | September 03, 2009 at 06:38 AM
Penny was acquired 8/31, but wasn't added to the roster until 9/1. He's eligible for the postseason, but not for these rankings.
Posted by: ebajek85 | September 03, 2009 at 06:39 AM
Penny was acquired 8/31, but wasn't added to the roster until 9/1. He's eligible for the postseason, but not for these rankings.
Posted by: ebajek85 | September 03, 2009 at 06:39 AM
Thanks, ebajek. I thought all of the players in a category were thrown in together, as in top 20 percent of 1B/OF/DH (if applicable).
From what I understand, it's top 20% of 1B, top 20% of OF, etc.
Posted by: jicoleman84 | September 03, 2009 at 08:57 AM
Not quite. The score is attained by comparing your stats to other players at your position. The type is attained by grouping the scores attained at the positions together and taking the top 20 and 40%.
Even though they are grouped together, an outfielder's stats will not affect the score of a firstbaseman like they would another outfielder. On the other hand, an outfielder's score will affect the type of a 1B.
Does that make sense?
Posted by: ebajek85 | September 03, 2009 at 10:39 AM
Probably a good move for Thome coming to the NL and alleviating himself of Type A or B status. I wonder if that factored into his decision to agree to the trade?
That is the downside of the current system, Type A status in particular can really hurt a player's opportunities in free agency (like Juan Cruz, Orlando Hudson, etc. last off-season).
Posted by: dodgersdan | September 03, 2009 at 12:07 PM
“Probably a good move for Thome coming to the NL and alleviating himself of Type A or B status. I wonder if that factored into his decision to agree to the trade?”
Nah, losing Type-A/B status actually hurts Thome’s possibilities ever so slightly.
Realistically, there was zero chance of the Dodgers offering arbitration anyway. If they did, this would have been the choice given to Thome
a) accept arbitration, make 13+ million in 2010, continue your career, and wait to be traded to a team you will be able to play for
b) decline arbitration, and hope he was not forced into retirement as the 14 AL teams (most which have a DH) decided if they are willing to part with a 1st round DP and a multi-million dollar salary.
You can see there is really no choice to be made there. Thome would accept all day long, having a ML team (even one without a position for you) is infinitely better then the possibly of being forced to retire, and 13 million is dramatically more then he would receive on the open market.
Because the Dodgers were never going to offer it, losing Type-A/B doesn’t have a huge impact on Thome. But it did remove the possibility the Dodgers would offer it, which destroys the ever so slight possibility he would make 13 million and be guaranteed another year in the bigs.
Posted by: SuzysMan | September 03, 2009 at 02:04 PM