Click here for today's chat transcript.
Archives for September 2009
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here for today's chat transcript.
Piniella Hints That Bradley’s A Goner
Cubs manager Lou Piniella hinted on ESPN Radio today that Milton Bradley will not play another game for the Cubs (via ESPN Chicago). The talented outfielder has two years and $21MM remaining on his contract, but Piniella suggested Bradley will spend those two seasons elsewhere.
"Now we try to find somebody else," Piniella said. "I know Jim [Hendry, the team GM] will work very hard at it."
Piniella is hardly the first one to suggest that Bradley will likely continue his career with another team. The Padres could have interest in Bradley, but the Royals won't bite. Ken Rosenthal suggested this weekend that the Giants, Rangers, Rays and Mets could all have interest in the 31-year-old.
The Cubs manager also criticized Bradley for his total of 40 RBIs. Bradley often hit second, so he didn't have as many opportunities to produce runs as some, but he failed to capitalize when given the chance; only eight of the 266 players with at least 300 plate appearances drove home a smaller percentage of runners than Bradley, who brought home just a tenth of those who reached base ahead of him.
Free Agent Market: Closers
Looking for a free agent closer to fill your team's ninth inning void? Let's examine the market.
- Saves are in large part of function of opportunity, but I'll note that Trevor Hoffman leads free agent closers with 36. Fernando Rodney has 35. Hoffman and Rodney also rank first and second in save opportunities. Rodney leads with a 97.2% success rate, and Hoffman is next at 92.3%.
- Hoffman leads with a 1.76 ERA. Then it's Valverde at 2.08, LaTroy Hawkins at 2.20, and Mike Gonzalez at 2.49. XFIP leaders: Rafael Soriano at 3.00, Gonzalez at 3.52, and Hoffman at 3.62.
- Soriano leads free agent closers with a 11.89 K/9. Gonzalez is next at 11.07, and Jose Valverde checks in at 9.69. Kevin Gregg also whiffed more than a batter per inning (9.31).
- Hoffman has the best control, with a 1.94 BB/9. Then it's Hawkins at 2.35 BB/9, Soriano at 3.10, and Valverde at 3.29. Rodney is the riskiest at 4.74 BB/9.
- Best home run rate: Hoffman (0.35 per nine), Soriano (0.74), Gonzalez (0.87), and Valverde (0.87). Rodney is the only real groundball artist at 56.4%.
- Hoffman is the toughest to hit at 6.00 per nine. Soriano (6.32), Valverde (6.40), and Gonzalez (6.84) were also stingy. Hoffman is also your BABIP leader at .237.
- Gregg threw the most pitches at 1305. Hoffman had the least at 696.
- Valverde and Rodney have the highest average fastball velocity at 95.9 mph. Hawkins and Wagner averaged 94.2.
- Billy Wagner didn't close this year, but he'd like to in 2010. He's returned from Tommy John surgery to post 22 strikeouts against 8 walks in 13 innings. Other free agent pitchers with closing experience: Luis Ayala, Danys Baez, Miguel Batista, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Betancourt, Chad Cordero, Octavio Dotel, Kelvim Escobar, Eric Gagne, Tom Gordon, Bob Howry, Jason Isringhausen, Jorge Julio, Brandon Lyon, Troy Percival, J.J. Putz, Takashi Saito, Justin Speier, David Weathers, and Eddie Guardado. Kiko Calero also merits consideration.
- Type A free agents: Wagner, Valverde, Gonzalez, Hoffman, Soriano, Hawkins, and Gregg. Rodney is a Type B.
Will Yusei Kikuchi Choose MLB?
Yusei Kikuchi may decide this week between Japanese baseball and MLB, according to Bobbie Dittmeier of MLB.com. As Dittmeier says, the hard-throwing 18-year-old southpaw would "become the first high school player to bypass Japan's draft and sign with a Major League organization."
Dittmeier says the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Tigers, Braves, Rangers, Mariners and Indians have reportedly scouted Kikuchi. She passes along a Kyodo News quote from Kikuchi's high school coach indicating the pitcher is 50-50 on his decision.
NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman has covered Kikuchi extensively. Back in May, Newman explained to MLBTR the differences between Kikuchi and Junichi Tazawa.
Odds & Ends: Pirates, Sabean, Weeks
Tuesday linkage:
- Chat today, 2pm CST.
- Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke with commissioner Bud Selig, who was adamant that the Pirates are not pocketing their profits.
- Pirates starter Zach Duke was pulled last night from an 11-1 game, one out away from a complete game, with 103 pitches thrown. Talking to Kovacevic, team president Frank Coonelly "strongly rejected" the idea that manager John Russell made the move to weaken Duke's bargaining position at the arbitration table. Joe Posnanski questions Russell's explanation of his decision.
- Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News feels that Giants managing partner Bill Neukom will retain GM Brian Sabean when that decision comes due in a week.
- Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks is strongly opposed to moving to center field, according to Anthony Witrado of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Weeks has explained his stance to GM Doug Melvin.
- Nomar Garciaparra told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle he hasn't thought about whether he'll play next year. Slusser says Nomar won't be back in Oakland, regardless.
- Reliever Doug Brocail is also undecided about 2010, according to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. An upcoming MRI on Brocail's shoulder will influence his decision.
Mariners, Felix To Discuss Extension After Season
The Mariners have agreed to sit down with Felix Hernandez's agent after the season to discuss a multiyear contract extension, according to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. Felix's agent, Alan Nero, stressed the lack of urgency since Hernandez is already under team control through 2011. Nero certainly knows that Hernandez's maximum payday would come from going year-to-year two more times and then putting a 25 year-old ace on the free agent market.
Baker speculates that Hernandez's 2010 salary will shoot into the $10MM range, since it's the pitcher's second arbitration year and he's finishing a breakout season. Baker notes:
If Hernandez and the Mariners do reach a long-term deal, buying out his final two arbitration years and extending him three to five beyond that, he could become Seattle's first $100MM player. The Mariners say they want a deal, but have previously implied that Hernandez's camp is reluctant to sign beyond 2011. So far, the two sides have yet to even hammer out parameters for their talks.
If Baker's read is accurate, it means Hernandez is willing to sacrifice financial security and gamble that he'll remain relatively healthy for the next two seasons. Most promising young starting pitchers have not chosen that route. If Felix does, his free agent contract may be historic. C.C. Sabathia owns the record free agent contract for a pitcher: $161MM over seven years, signed in December of last year when Sabathia was 28.
One positive for the Mariners is that Nero also represents Jon Lester, who signed an extension with the Red Sox in March buying out all of his arbitration years and one free agent year while giving a club option on a second.
As for Hernandez's 2010 salary, I believe the current record for a pitcher in his second arbitration year is Cole Hamels' $6.65MM salary for 2010. It's an imperfect comparable since Hamels was a Super Two player and that salary comes in the middle of a three-year contract.
Jeff Francoeur Craves Multiyear Deal
Mets right fielder Jeff Francoeur would like to discuss a multiyear deal with the team to buy out his arbitration years, according to Newsday's David Lennon. Francoeur, 26 in January, has a .308/.333/.491 line in 291 plate appearances for the Mets since coming over in the trade with Atlanta.
Francoeur is already under team control through 2011. Given the limited sample of playing time, the Mets might be inclined to focus on a 2010 contract. Francoeur earned $3.375MM in '09, and he shouldn't expect a huge raise as a second-year arbitration player for hitting .277/.306/.418 overall. Even if Francoeur offered to sign a two-year, $8MM contract, the Mets would be guaranteeing unnecessary millions.
Miguel Angel Sano Lowers Asking Price
Dominican shortstop Miguel Angel Sano has lowered his asking price in recent weeks, according to MASN's Steve Melewski. The Orioles admitted "things have stepped up" in their talks with Sano, but a gap remains. (Just a week ago, Orioles president Andy MacPhail characterized the talks as on the backburner.) Melewski heard eight to ten teams are in on Sano, perhaps large-market clubs like the Yankees and Red Sox included. Melewski believes Sano may sign in October. The player's age remains unconfirmed, but he's saying he's 16.
The Pirates were the frontrunner for Sano a few months ago, but Sano's agent turned down their $2.6MM offer (ESPN's Jorge Arangure Jr. reporting). Since then, Wagner Mateo's $3.1MM deal with the Cardinals was voided.
Discussion: Felix Hernandez
There are few young pitchers in the majors today more talented than Seattle ace Felix Hernandez, and the Mariners know it. There has been talk that the team intends to make a strong effort this offseason to sign Hernandez to an extension, but they did listen to trade offers for the right-hander in July. The M's have Hernandez under team control until 2011, when he becomes eligible for free agency for the first time.
The 23-year-old is a Cy Young candidate this season, posting a 2.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 224.1 IP, while striking out nearly a batter per inning. Considering his age, his production to date, and his affordable contract (at least for two more years), it's hard to think of many players whose trade value will be higher this winter.
This brings us to tonight's discussion question: should the Mariners be shopping Felix after the season? They're set to finish in just third place in the AL West this year, but they've made strides after winning only 61 games in 2008. The Angels potentially could lose some of their main contributors (John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero) via free agency, and the Rangers' ownership uncertainty raises questions about their financial flexibility for 2010. Next season could be a prime opportunity for the Mariners to make a playoff run, rather than to deal their best player for rebuilding pieces.
On the other hand, without a couple of new bats in 2010, the Mariners' offense, which this season ranks dead last in the American League in OBP and SLG, won't give Felix and the rest of the staff the support they need to contend. Plus, the haul Seattle could demand in exchange for Hernandez would be massive.
So what should the Mariners' next move be? How much do they offer Hernandez to stay in Seattle? And if he turns down their best offer, do they open the floodgates for trade proposals?