Discussion: Angels Face Big Decisions

Chapman could be a nice surprise if they get him. I never heard the Angels were thinking about him.

I think Figgins and Lackey are gone. Too much money gonna be waving in there face from elsewhere.

I think Oliver and Vlad will be back. I know some don't think Guerrero will be back, but I just think he will.

To me, the hard one to figure is Abreu. I lean towards him staying but some team may take a good money jump at him.

My 2 cents.

Oh forgot this.. If they sign Chapman with the intention of him replacing Lackey, it is a bad move.

Sign Chapman by all means but do not count on him as the team ace for 2010

1- Offer Lackey 4/55-60, take it or leave it. Fair offer for both sides.

2- Offer Figgins arb and let him walk. Give Brandon Wood the 3B job. Offer Abreu arb, and offer him a deal at like 2/16, take it or leave it.

3- I like the Holliday idea as a way to instill a power bat if he isn't too expensive (he'll be way cheaper than Teixeira was last year), and allow Rivera to DH and/or bring in a cheap FA DH. I also like targetting guys like Bedard/Harden on 1 year deals to fill out the rotation.

And, of course, Chapman would be a creative target for the team.

I would never expect Chapman to replace Lackey, though he'd be nice to be able to throw in the rotation.

i hate to say 'i told you so'
(actually i luuuuuuv to say it ...!)

• lackey is an A level 2
and a B level 1
• if they want to hang on to each and every of their prospects, they need hungry vets behind them to push them (or replace them when they choke)
• bobby abreu, at any price, is what he is: overrated. and one of the best examples of numbers blurring reality

I wish the Angels could keep their roster intact because they are a good group of players. As much as I was happy to see my Yankees win, I respect the Angel team.

Abreu was a great fit and although he faltered in the postseason, I think he'll return as will Vlad. I think Lackey takes a big contract elsewhere as does Figgins. Oliver, I'm not sure. He deserves whatever he gets since the man is so versatile.

And I believe the Angels still win the '10 AL West.

The Angels have near $68 guaranteed next year, tack on arbitration cases and we're looking at something under $85. I expect final payroll to be in the $110-$120 range. So roughly $30 million to play with for 2010.

Chone: Take the draft picks. Aybar becomes the leadoff hitter and you give Wood 3B... with Izturis pushing him for playing time.

Lackey ($17 million): Offer 4/$66 million. Same annual salary as Burnett yet one less year. Take on a 5th year mutual option if necessary.

Vlad/Abreau ($6 million): DO NOT OFFER Vlad ARB. Offer arb to Abreau. I only want to see one of these guys back, as they are both basically DHs. The rumored 2 year/$16 deal for Abreau is way, way too rich.

Last I read, Abreu rejected the 2/16 offer he received early in the ALCS. So yeah, chances he won't be coming back, at least not for now. Here's what I do:

-Offer Figgins 2/15. This seems fair to me but I know he would want more. He has mentioned that he is willing to give a discount. This also gives them some room incase Wood needs more time plus Figgins can platoon in the outfield if need be.

-Offer Lackey AJ money. I don't care if that seems too much but this guy is the best chance they got at leading the staff. Kazmir is NOT an ace. Weaver is a perfect #2 and nothing else.

Still undecided on Vlad/Abreu. For me, its one or the other. Both will have to take the DH spot if one comes back though.

Angels definetly win the west in 2010
there is no competition in the west and the angels knew they were going to lose lackey why else would they bring in kazmir also our lineup can only get better power wise with wood playing the hot corner and aybar could lead off for the angels next year but personally i dont think abreu is worth all that money he sucks defensively and it took him forever to hit his first homerun y not get someone else either inhouse or via trade(Hawpe) he might be worth the price they were offering abreu and he is way better and ditch Vladdy get Dunn (guaranteed 40 homeruns per year)

I think they should go back to calling themselves the California or Anaheim Angels. They are nowhere near Los Angeles. They aren't even in the same county. The Dodgers were right in complaining. Fix that first, the team can come second.

If we wind up letting Lackey go, the Halos MUST go after Chapman.

Here's my predicted lineup and rotation for next year (from MY standpoint):

3B: Chone Figgins (we'll have resigned him on a lockup deal)
RF: Bobby Abreu (two years, $19MM)
CF: Torii Hunter
DH: Vladimir Guerrero (one-year deal, laden with incentives, option for 2011)
1B: Kendry Morales
LF: Juan Rivera
2B: Maicer Izturis
C: Jeff Mathis
SS: Erick Aybar

BENCH
OF: Gary Matthews, Jr.
IF: Brandon Wood
OF: Reggie Willits
C: Mike Napoli
2B: Howie Kendrick

ROTATION (this is where the differences will be):

SP: Jered Weaver
SP: Scott Kazmir
SP: Joe Saunders
SP: Aroldis Chapman (I'm guessing six years, $62MM)
SP: Ervin Santana

LRP: Matt Palmer
LRP: Shane Loux
MRP: Darren Oliver (two-year deal)
MRP: Kevin Jepsen
SU: Scot Shields
CL: Joakim Soria

THE CHANGES
* I'm saying Lackey will have run off to Texas for a long-term deal.
* Where are Brian Fuentes and Dustin Moseley? Traded to Kansas City for Joakim Soria and a couple of prospects.

Soria needs to be shopped. He's a great pitcher (hello, almost 12 K/9, isn't that better than what K-Rod did some years?) who will not reach his full potential by rotting in Kansas City. The Royals need to cut ties and trade him to a contender, and Fuentes--let's face it. He saved us 48 games, but at what cost? He blew seven other games (case and point: mid-September against Boston and ALCS Game 2) and is inconsistent. His signing was a quick patch-up to replace K-Rod. Soria is young and definitely ready--42 saves in 2008, plus a 2.21 ERA here in 2009. Soria can slam the door.

Deanezag: I suspect the Mets will be in on Lackey.

and humannature: re: "This also gives them some room incase Wood needs more time "..... he's spent 3 full seasons in AAA; how much more time could he need? Give him a chance to play or trade him!

They either need to give him the job, and let him figure it out, or trade him... but he's done everything he can do in AAA.

I do hope Napoli gets 500 Ab's next year, somebody is not coming back and that should let him take some Ab's in the DH spot.

It took me 2 years to understand why Mathis got so much goddamn playing time, the guy is 10 times better behind the plate than Napoli.. and When you score almost 900 runs, I guess you can sacrifice some offense.

2012 is actually the big year for the Angels.

-Conger takes over at catcher
-Vlad/Abreu are gone replaced by Trumbo
-Rivera's gone replaced by Bourjos
-Kazmir's gone replaced by Reckling
-Pettit replaces Willits
-Mount replaces Izturis

Chapman as Lackey's replacement? Shaikin is a moron. You can't count on that guy to do anything. Let alone replace a staff ace.

The Angels have the financial flexibility to really do whatever they want. Here's my take.

C - Napoli/Mathis
1B - Morales
2B - Kendrick
SS - Aybar
3B - Wood/Izturis
LF - Holliday
CF - Hunter
RF - Rivera
DH - Thome/Napoli

SP: Kazmir
SP: Weaver
SP: Saunders
SP: Santana
SP: Harden/Bedard/Sheets

CL: Fuentes (yuk)
RP: Shields
RP: Bulger
RP: Jepsen
RP: Arredondo
RP: Oliver (maybe)

You offer arb to Figgins, Abreu, Oliver, and Lackey. No arb to Vlad. If Figgins will sign for undermarket you take that and trade Wood. Otherwise you let him walk and collect your pick. If Oliver accepts then you have him on another one year deal. Abreu and Lackey will net you 4 picks.

The signings are nominal. The big ticket item is Holliday. Expect $15-17m/season. He replaces Vlad's salary. Then you have a guy like Thome coming in on a one year deal at $3-5m. Finally, you add in one of the risk/reward starters - a guy that you can land for 1 year and maybe $6m.

That's a total of $26m in new salary. Under this model the Angels shed Vlad ($15m), Lackey ($9m), Escobar ($10m), Abreu ($6m), Figgins ($6m), and Oliver ($4m).

That would also allow the Angels to lock up Weaver, Saunders, Aybar, Napoli, and Morales.

They can do all this and still be under the 2009 payroll. That to me is the key. I would like to see the Angels around $110m. That gives them $10m or so to play with in the event of poor performance or injury. As more teams move into dump mode the Angels can take advantage of that by acquiring talent that only costs dollars. Preserve the farm system that way.

bjsguess,

I agree with much of what you've written. Your post shows a lot of thought.

When it comes to Lackey, I do everything I can if I'm the Angels to sign him. He is a bulldog and a leader of the staff. He pitched very well this post season and set the tone for the Red Sox series. The Angels would have a huge void if he is gone. They could probably keep Lackey for 5yr/$85mil. That's more than Burnett got, but not egregious. I wouldn't mess around here.

I like offering arbitration to Figgins and Abreu. I think Abreu will eventually accept the Angels offer, as I don't see many people willing to invest much more than that. The Angels could eventually sweeten the deal with an option year and/or buyout clause, plus incentives.

I totally agree with your assessment of Figgins and I think his situation will likely play out quickly.

If Abreu doesn't come back, they can turn to more expensive options, like Jason Bay or Matt Holliday - but I don't see either happening.

In terms of Vlad, his situation will not be finalized for some time. Who knows what happens here.

I think the real problem the Angels have to seal with that no one is talking about is Ervin Santana. While 2008 was a good year for him, he has been a major disappointment in 2007 and 2009. Time to send him on in a package for a front-line starter (Halladay).

I like the following rotation quite a bit:

Halladay
Lackey
Saunders
Weaver
Kazmir

The Angels need to address both Lackey and Figgins quickly as that will set the direction the Angels take the rest of the offseason.

If Lackey isn't resigned, acquiring a front-line starter quickly becomes key to the Angels off-season plans.

If Figgins is back, then Wood is probably packaged for a front-line starter or power-hitting outfielder.

I don't think the Angels will make a serious move until both of those situations play themselves out.

Soria and a couple of prospects, and teh royals get to take on Fuentes contract, wow great deal, Soria is only a top 5 closer in all of baseball the royals should def add some prospects to get that deal done for an old incredibly over paid lefty for their pen and a failed 28 year old AAA starter for their Omaha squad.

"You might want to consider learning the use of commas' (,) and period's (.)...it'll help people understand your jibberish."

I'm glad you didn't lecture him on the use of apostrophes (no '), because you have definitely not mastered that aspect of the English language yet. Irony?

Thank you jason, your contribution was completely necessary.

Enjoy your life.

You may be right about Vlad. He is most likely the first choice. I'm just extremely worried about his downward slide - both in terms of performance and health.

The Angels need another 30+ HR bat in that lineup. I'm afraid that Vlad's days of providing that kind of pop are over. With a guy like Thome you get more discipline at the plate, more pitches per AB, and better walk rates.

And really Thome isn't the only guy there. I would definitely look to see what Dunn would cost. Delgado and Matsui are other options. My point is that we don't need to spend a lot of money on the DH spot. Plenty of guys going to be looking for work which should make this a buyers market. I don't want to settle on Vlad because of what he has done for us in the past. I'm much more concerned about what a player can do for us in the future.

Also, you are 100% correct on the Kazmir trade. His salary is off-set by Escobar leaving. However, we can still sign Holliday/Bay, Bedard/Harden/Dutch/Sheets, and a DH and still be well under 09 opening day salary.

Also, Figgins is very, very overrated. The Angels should let him go somewhere else and sign Mark DeRosa who is essentially as good of a utility player and doesn't come with the hype that is going to make someone overpay for Figgins. Teams fall in love with his speed and forget to notice that, throughout his career, he has only put up decent numbers a couple of times. I also think that they should keep Abreu and try to bring back Vlad cheaply.

Let's not be harsh here. I did say those were MY hopes.

From a realistic standpoint:

LINEUP
3B: Chone Figgins
RF: Bobby Abreu
CF: Torii Hunter
DH: Adam Dunn
1B: Kendry Morales
LF: Juan Rivera
2B: Maicer Izturis
C: Mike Napoli
SS: Erick Aybar

BENCH
C: Jeff Mathis
2B: Howie Kendrick
OF: Gary Matthews, Jr.
OF: Reggie Willits
IF: Brandon Wood

STARTING ROTATION
SP: Jered Weaver
SP: Scott Kazmir
SP: Tim Hudson
SP: Joe Saunders
SP: Ervin Santana

BULLPEN
LRP: Matt Palmer
LRP: Shane Loux
MRP: Darren Oliver
MRP: Kevin Jepsen
SU: Scot Shields
CL: Brian Fuentes

THE SIGNINGS
Darren Oliver: 1-year w/player option for 2011 ($1.15MM), $2.5MM

Chone Figgins: 5-year, $52MM w/incentives worth up to $4MM

Tim Hudson: 3-year, $20MM w/incentives worth up to $3MM

Adam Dunn: 4-year, $32MM w/ mutual option for 2014 ($8MM) and incentives worth up to $3.5MM

Bobby Abreu: 2-year, $18MM w/ player option for 2012 ($5.5MM) and incentives worth up to $3MM

THE LOSSES
John Lackey: Signed w/ Texas (5-year, $90MM)

Vladimir Guerrero: Signed w/ Washington (1-year, $4.5MM)

Kelvim Escobar: Remained free agent

Robb Quinlan: Signed w/ Kansas City (minor league deal)

BACK IN TRIPLE-A
Jason Bulger, Bobby Wilson, Aroldis Chapman, Robert Mosebach, Freddy Sandoval, Chris Pettit, Mark Trumbo, Rafael Rodriguez, Dustin Moseley, Sean O'Sullivan, Ryan Budde, Matthew Brown, Anthony Ortega, Fernando Rodriguez, Rich Thompson, Terry Evans, Stephen Marek,

Okay.

First, I forgot that Dunn is not a free agent. However, we can acquire him for Gary Matthews, Jr., who recently said he wants out of Anaheim. If we were to send GMJ, a player to be named and a AAA guy (I'd send Moseley) to the Nats, we could possibly get Dunn.

Secondly, I did not even mean to put Marek on that list.

Third, that may be Spankees money for Figgins, but he's gonna get a relatively equivalent offer from the ChiSox, who've wanted him for YEARS. Figgins is one of the few guys who can be a franchise player for this club. Lock him in.

Fourth, I was actually bouncing between two or three years for Hudson. Now that you mention it, I'd give Hud two years at the same money I listed.

Lastly (and this is another personal preference):

I would honestly trade Kendrick, Wood, Willits and Jepsen to San Diego for Heath Bell and Kevin Kouzmanoff/David Eckstein.

No offense No1CarewFan29 but that trade would be SOOOOOOO STUPID. Take my word for this, Howie Kendrick will be an All-Star in 2010. The main priority for the Angels is absolutely to keep Lackey. Without Lackey, the Angels have zero chance of contending for a title next year (that is if they don't trade for a true ace).

Brandon Wood needs a true chance at 3rd. What happens if he faults? You have Maicer who has shown to be reliable as hell so there really isn't much lost there.

From this postseason, it is undeniably obvious the Angels need a big power threat that will put fear in the opposing manager's mind. Though it isn't ideal, Holliday or Bay would fit just fine. The angels absolutely need lackey and power, power, power. This small business fails everytime they get to the playoffs. WAKE UP TONY.

Of course not, but you can't say that Lackey is their best pitcher in the post season. The Angels can obviously make the playoffs without him, but it's about excelling and winning a Championship which I can't see them doing without better pitching or adding some power. You can't keep throwing the same old small ball stuff in the playoffs and expect to suddenly win, especially with Yankees baseball.

I completely agree they shouldn't even think twice about getting into a bidding war. As much as I love Lackey, he wouldn't be worth it, especially with what the Angels could potentially do.

I'm not expecting the Angels to really do anything huge, but i'm a little weary with where their offense is heading. I genuinely don't believe Juan Rivera will really put up good numbers for much longer and they have an aging Hunter (granted he can still play). Apologies if I start to rant, but I have many scenarios in my head and am just excited/anxious to see what happens.

isn't*

For the record Lackey was 2-3 in the postseason prior to this year. He had logged 57 innings, given up 22 runs, 56 hits, and 22 BB's. As a post-season performer Lackey has been completely average.

Sure he was big in game 7 during his rookie year. Of course, he also threw in several stinkers along the way.

That's my point though. I don't believe that people magically play better in October. Some guys may elevate their game to a degree but for the most part it's just another game. Getting a guy because he is clutch in the post-season is a very risky move that generally won't pan out.

The best teams in baseball (Yankees, Phillies) have a couple things we lack. Power and Cy Young Pitching. We have great depth with our starting pitching but no lights out CY YOUNG pitcher that will dominate a short playoff series (Lackey is closest).
Since he will command a 4-6 17-20mil contract we will pass because for that much we would rather trade for Halladay and try to sign him next year or Cliff Lee for 20-25 mil that could surely increase our chances to win when it counts (Post season). With our starting pitching depth we should pick up a risk/reward pitcher for a 1/2 year contract based on performance incentives. In regards to the rest of the team Figgins is gone because of the money others will offer him. That's ok because we can throw in Wood at third and get a little more pop and let Aybar leadoff. We should sign Bobby because of his plate discipline and his influence on our team batting average. No more than a 2 years though. Vlad is done. We should sign Thome to a year contract for DH for cheap. I think we should sign Oliver and try to trade Fuentes with surplus bench talent for Soria and a prospect from the Royals. Look at Soria's numbers, he's lights out. Fuentes cost us game 2 ALCS. He's worse than Franky because at least Franky throws over 90 mph and has an untouchable slider. If we don't have the pop by midseason we can always trade for Crawford who adds pop and speed or Dunn or Pena. Should be a fun offseason. We better not lose everyone though