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« Heyman On Jaramillo, Holliday, Mets, Nationals | Main | Odds & Ends: Sano, Towers, D'Backs, Fehr »
Free Agent Lefty Mashers
Looking for free agent bats that can crush lefties? Among those with 100 plate appearances against southpaws this year, here are your best bets, ranked by OBP:
- Nick Johnson - .440
- Mike Cameron - .420
- Matt Holliday - .405
- Jason Bay - .402
- Marco Scutaro - .389
- Jermaine Dye - .387
- Adrian Beltre - .384
- Gabe Kapler - .379
- Felipe Lopez - .379
They didn't make the OBP list, but Mark DeRosa, Bengie Molina, Gabe Kapler, and Jason Giambi showed good power (SLG) against lefties.
On the other hand, free agents Randy Winn, Hank Blalock, Alex Gonzalez, and Joe Crede struggled mightily against southpaws.
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The Braves should trade Lowe for specs and just focus in on Bay. 4 yrs, $80M should convince Bay.
Posted by: Chief Tomahawk | October 21, 2009 at 08:22 AM
You want to give Bay 4/80 when he can't even DH occasionally?
Thanks, but no thanks.
Obviously, if the Braves can get out from under Lowe's contract, then that's a deal that they should make.
But the worst thing that the Braves could do with that money is go out of their way to spend it on Bay, a good hitter that's a liability defensively and not particularly good fit for any team that doesn't have some available at-bats at the DH position.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 21, 2009 at 08:29 AM
Yeah, give me Holliday. Next resort would be getting our power-threat via trade. THEN, if that doesn't work out, go for Bay.
Posted by: WS2009 | October 21, 2009 at 08:33 AM
Honestly, even if they can't figure anything out, they shouldn't go after Bay.
He's just not a good fit, and that deal would end up being just like the Lowe deal: fit a short-term need for the team that had some extra cash to spend, but soon after signing the deal it no longer really fit into their payroll structure.
Go after cheap guys like Kila Ka'aihue and Matt Joyce, instead.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 21, 2009 at 08:38 AM
"Go after cheap guys like Kila Ka'aihue and Matt Joyce, instead."
Didn't the Braves just get rid of Kila last year? Or was that his brother?
I agree that Bay isn't a good idea. Not only is he not that great defensively but he is prone to long slumps (like the entire 2007 season).
Posted by: BravesAllTheWay | October 21, 2009 at 09:00 AM
How about SLG and more than one season's worth of data?
Posted by: Sky | October 21, 2009 at 09:02 AM
Considering all the quality lefty bats the Braves either currently have or have coming in 1-2 years, it would not be a terrible decision to overpay for a righty, especially a big name that can excite the fan base...
Posted by: travis0548 | October 21, 2009 at 09:04 AM
Pust off the top of my head, at least 3 of these guys are not lefties.
Posted by: MacRae | October 21, 2009 at 09:04 AM
MacRae, nowhere in the post does it say anything about these people being lefties. It says that they HIT lefties very well.
Posted by: Fishfan4 | October 21, 2009 at 09:10 AM
All the more reason for the Twins to sign Felipe Lopez to a 2 year deal. Shore up 2B (though not as solid defensively than Punto--ugh), an excellent 2-hole hitter between Span and Mauer, and can hit lefties well. Twins have struggled mightily in the past against LHP against, not only against good (Buerle, Sabathia, Danks) but extremely mediocre ones as well. Twins line-up is also heavy LH in the middle (Mauer, Morneau, Kubel), so another quality RH in Lopez would be perfect.
Posted by: B Dubz | October 21, 2009 at 09:10 AM
Braves should look at Upton of Rays. Pay 1/2 of Lowe's contact. Joyce and Upton for Lowe and prospects.
Posted by: rockford | October 21, 2009 at 09:19 AM
Bravesfan- His brother
Kila is a KC prospect, who looks like a Nick Johnson type with the possible upside of more power than Nick to compliment a ridiculous walk rate.
Posted by: CubFanRaysaddict | October 21, 2009 at 09:21 AM
Braves should look at Upton of Rays. Pay 1/2 of Lowe's contact. Joyce and Upton for Lowe and prospects.
Posted by: rockford | October 21, 2009 at 09:19 AM
What is the benefit to the Rays unless you are talking really good prospects. Even then, the Rays are looking to lower payroll not add to it with Lowe
Posted by: JayL78 | October 21, 2009 at 09:42 AM
What does OBP have to do with "mashers"? I think you mean to look at SLG when discussing "mashers". Also 100 PA is not a large enough sample to read much from this. BABIP would have a huge influence in their OBP still.
Posted by: Trizza | October 21, 2009 at 09:43 AM
"Braves should look at Upton of Rays. Pay 1/2 of Lowe's contact. Joyce and Upton for Lowe and prospects."
Awful deal for Tampa.
If the Rays want to deal Upton, they could get a big package for him, and it definitely wouldn't involve taking on $23M of Lowe's contract when they already have a set rotation of Shields, Garza, Price, Niemann and Davis.
How about Joyce for Jo-Jo Reyes and a low level guy?
"Didn't the Braves just get rid of Kila last year? Or was that his brother?"
That was his brother, Kila is a much better prospect.
I'm still dumbfounded that Moore chose to trade Nunez for Jacobs to play first rather than just give the job to Ka'aihue, a better, cheaper player.
He's got great plate discipline and solid gap power, the Nick Johnson comp is solid, although at his best Johnson hit for more average and was better defensively than Ka'aihue is likely to be.
Still, guys like Ka'aihue, Joyce, Wood, Jordan Brown, etc. who really deserve ML shots at some point, are the kind of cheap options that teams should look at.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 21, 2009 at 09:57 AM
Most of these guys had 150-200 PAs vs lefties, but I agree that more data would be better. Unfortunately I cannot find a site on the web that combines 2008-09 data vs. lefties. If I can I will probably redo the post.
I probably should have named the post "Free Agent Success Against Lefties," but didn't like the title. But offensive success was my intent more than any literal interpretation of "mashers." I did note the four players who had strong SLGs against lefties but didn't make the OBP list.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 21, 2009 at 10:06 AM
As much as I'd love the Braves to get Holliday as our RH #4 cleanup hitter, that kind of investment scares the hell of me.
Since we are on the subject of FA splits lets look at a much cheaper alternative: PLATOONS!
Using last year's stats adjusted for 650PA looking at the OF:
vs RHP (~70% of pitchers faced)
LF McLouth 22HR 23SB .269/.371/.462/.833
CF Schafer 26HR 22SB .309/.416/.565/.981 (2008 minors)
RF Heyward 28HR 15SB .371/.465/.629/1.094 (2008 minors)
vs LHP (~30% of pitchers faced)
LF Diaz 25HR 15SB .412/.464/.640/1.103
CF McLouth/Schafer (Batting leadoff for speed and defense)
RF Kapler: 29HR 8SB .276/.379/.552/.931
Notes: I used data from the minors on Schafer and Heyward because its the only large sample size I have. Heyward has virtually L/R split (around 1.000OPS for both) but Schafer has always mashed RHP and struggled some against LHP. Before you say 'Schafer was a bust he suxsorz!', take a look at his April stats before he was injured in the first week of May.
With only 1-2M? spent on Kapler we could resign LaRoche with money left over for the pen giving these lineups:
vs RHP showing OPS
1. McLouth LF .833 L
2. Prado 2B .772 R
3. Chipper 3B .772 S
4. LaRoche 1B .902 L
5. McCann C .932 L
6. Escobar SS .864 R
7. Heyward RF ?<1.094?
8. Schafer CF ?<.981?
vs LHP showing OPS
1. McLouth/Schafer CF 20+SB L
2. Prado 2B .923 R
3. Chipper 3B .912 S
4. Diaz LF 1.103 R
5. Kapler RF .931 R
6. Escobar SS .691 R
7. Ross/McCann .769career/.634 R/L
8. Heyward RF ?<1.003? 2008 minors
As you can see with this type of roster construction you aren't going to have a complete set lineup every day like the Phillies but you do get the most out of your talent. VsRHP you have a more complete 1-8 lineup with no easy outs and some nice thunder in the middle with LaRoche/McCann. VsLHP you have a few weak spots but 2-5 you have to pitch through four hitters with OPSes well over .900.
This is all done with only one semi-longterm investment in LaRoche while keeping all six starters and cash left over to get a solid late inning reliever. Better than commiting all your resources in a 6 win player like Holliday? I don't know but its an interesting choice.
Posted by: bbxxj | October 21, 2009 at 10:23 AM
If the Rays want to deal Upton, they could get a big package for him, and it definitely wouldn't involve taking on $23M of Lowe's contract when they already have a set rotation of Shields, Garza, Price, Niemann and Davis.
That Rays rotation not even close to Yanks or Boston.
Rays need to make changes or another third place in 2010.
Baltimore and Blue Jays coming on.
Can't stand pat in the division.
Posted by: rockford | October 21, 2009 at 10:30 AM
That Rays rotation not even close to Yanks or Boston.
Rays need to make changes or another third place in 2010.
Baltimore and Blue Jays coming on.
Can't stand pat in the division.
Posted by: rockford | October 21, 2009 at 10:30 AM
Whether or not this is true, that doesn't make your ridiculous trade proposal any more valid. Some of your posts sound like C3PO are typing them, by the way.
Posted by: bucs_lose_again | October 21, 2009 at 10:56 AM
Tim, if you are willing to live with 3 years data, ESPN shows splits against LHP for the last 3 full seasons.
Posted by: obsessivegiantscompulsive | October 21, 2009 at 11:23 AM
"Braves should look at Upton of Rays. Pay 1/2 of Lowe's contact. Joyce and Upton for Lowe and prospects."
So the Rays should trade a young OF with huge upside who is still relatively cheap for a 36 year-old pitcher when the primary strength of the team is having a stocked rotation? The Rays are loaded with starters and have more on the way in the form of Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, and Jake McGee. Makes zero sense to deal for Lowe.
Posted by: vtadave | October 21, 2009 at 11:29 AM
The Braves should trade Lowe for specs and just focus in on Bay. 4 yrs, $80M should convince Bay.
Posted by: Chief Tomahawk | October 21, 2009 at 08:22 AM
That should convince him, no doubt. 20 mill per is ridiculous.
Posted by: Kinsm | October 21, 2009 at 11:32 AM
I hope my white sox make a play for Nick Johnson. We need a lefty DH/ backup 1B, his power numbers might start to climb in a hitters park.
Posted by: g13 | October 21, 2009 at 11:52 AM
That 3-year ESPN split data, is there any way to get a ranked list of it? I know it can be found on individual player pages.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 21, 2009 at 12:05 PM
according to the ESPN stats, among FA's who averaged atleast 100 AB's over the past 3 seasons, this is the top 7 in OBP against LHP's:
Mike Cameron- .407
Matt Holliday- .398
Jermaine Dye- .390
Mark Derosa- .386
Jason Bay- .377
Adrian Beltre- .373
Marco Scutaro- .360
Nick Johnson was at .421 and Gabe Kapler at .379 but did not have enough AB's.
And by the way, you list Gabe Kapler as on and Not on the list in the original post
Posted by: GoldenGlove002 | October 21, 2009 at 03:34 PM
If the Braves let Laroche go, and signed both Cameron and Nick Johnson, would it cost more than 12mm annually combined for more than 2 years? If they have faith in Freeman and Heyward, they should imo.
Posted by: zaphrodesiac | October 21, 2009 at 03:59 PM
Matsui doesn't make the OBP list, but he has a .618 SLG% against lefties.
Posted by: Zig | October 21, 2009 at 04:41 PM