Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

I wonder if they'd consider using Kawakami as a closer. He got tired towards the end of the season and the odds of getting something for Lowe are at best minuscule. This would let them use the money saved on signing a CL to get some power in the lineup.

I think you're selling the Front Offices short, Tim. They probably have a much better idea as to how valuable a player actually is than we do. Most of them, anyway.

"Right now it just matters what teams think of him."

That's a good point, Tim - and the most important one in the end. I do think Lowe will rebound, but based on his 2009 performance - and I'm just basing this on having watched the majority of the Braves' games - I STRONGLY doubt that anyone will be willing to pick up Lowe and his whole salary. Even for a Rios-style dump deal.

Initially, I thought trading Vasquez was a good way to pick up a bat....not so sure now....

For $15 mil, I don't see why the Braves couldn't re-sign LaRoche + closer. If a power bat needs to come into the picture, then maybe trade one of the pitchers. Also, I do think Heyward will be in the OF in Atlanta by June.

Tim, I like your thinking about keeping the SPs intact, but I disagree with how to spend that $20M you propose (if they raise they payroll to $100M).

The market this year for 1Bs is thin. I mean, the best options are Adam LaRoche, or maybe Hank Blalock...or Carlos Delgado if you think he will come back well. That $10M a year might get you LaRoche or Delgado...maybe slightly less for LaRoche. The problem is, that takes you completely out of the running for a decent OF. At $10M/year, the Braves will be lucky to get an aging, defensively-challenged OF like Jermaine Dye. So, that $20M could get a Dye/LaRoche combo.

OR...considering that Freddie Freeman is probably only a year away from the majors, sign someone like Aubrey Hill to an incentive-laden one-year deal and use the rest of the money to go all in for Bay or Holliday...so that $20M gets you Bay or Holliday and Hill as a stopgap to Freeman.

And KJ? Trade him for a veteran bullpen arm. Someone like George Sherrill of the Dodgers would be nice, but it doesn't necessarily need to be someone with closing experience. Just a veteran bullpen arm to go with all those young guns down there in the Braves pen.

I'm not implying it's meaningless, just pointing out that a) 1 data point (2009) isn't sufficient evidence to conclude that a trend exists and b) it's within the realm of possibilities that 2009's peripherals aren't a correct representation of his fundamental skills.

Even so, $15 million for 200+ innings of 4.00 FIP (if 2009's peripherals are, in fact, a correct representation of his fundamental ability) isn't the toughest thing in baseball to move.

I think he stays put, though. He's probably more valuable to the Braves than anyone else.

For the person who said "If Wren can get rid of Lowe and his contract he would become an elite GM". This is the same GM who gave him this contract. I think all Braves fans should be happy be happy about the year they had because they will nor repeat this sucres because the Phillies are great the Marlins are good and we all know the Mets are gonna reload and they had major injuries. They are going to be tough next year.

Lowe for Maggs straight up.

I really don't think the Braves should trade any of their starting pitchers unless they get wowed by an offer. You never know what could happen with injuries and such so you might as well have as much depth as possible. The Braves are due for a breakout year soon, they have really good pitching and a lot of talent coming up through the minors.

Look I hear what PWH is saying about 1 year not being enough of a sample, but I'd buy into that a lot more if Lowe was 26 instead of 36. There's a huge difference. Cole Hamels had a down year with some similarities to Lowe's year, and I expect him to bounce back next year. But he's 25, not 35.

Possibly even more concerning with Lowe is the fact that he isn't exactly heading into the last year of a contract. Whatever he does bring, it's yours for 3 more years in his age 37, 38, & 39 seasons. My crystal ball broke this morning, but I'm still banking that those years will not be as pretty as PWH's of the world would like to think.

That being said, with the Braves needing a 1B & LF, I feel like Wren should be touching base w/ Doug Melvin from time to time getting into the winter here. The Brewers are desperately in need of starting pitching, and have plenty of corner types in Hart, Gamel, Lawrie, etc. Not sure the Brewers would consider moving either of those last two, but both of them are solid prospects who are semi-positionless or blocked by current players. I'm not proposing some insane Prince Fielder for Tommy Hanson swap or anything, nor am I even suggesting anything huge here. But the two teams seem to match up in more ways than one, and I think it would just be due diligence on Frank Wren's part to explore that.

Agreed, you should want no part of a Lowe for Matthews trade. Lowe at least has a good chance of bouncing back and gives your pitching staff some leadership and postseason experience.

The market for Lowe will develop once Lackey signs. The teams losing out on him will find themselves with no good starting pitching options. Then Wren makes a few phone calls and suddenly you have several teams interested in Lowe.

I would also trade/release Kelly Johnson and Ryan Church. I would replace them with Brooks Conrad and Gregor Blanco/Brandon Hicks. That would save $5M before arb raises.

"but I'd buy into that a lot more if Lowe was 26 instead of 36"

And that's a fair point, certainly something to consider. But a .75 run decline over a year is outside of the normal aging patterns, even at 36. There are tons of untested variables here. My point is we don't know. To quote Bill James:

Q: Has sabermetrics pretty much squeezed the last drop of new insights out of traditional counting statistics? If so, what data ought to be collected to improve our understanding of the game? If not, where can the boundaries be pushed?

A: We haven’t figured out anything yet. A hundred years from now, we won’t have begun to have the game figured out.

Also what is the obsession with GMJ with users on this site? People seem to think he's some sort of undiscovered gem just waiting to break out on a different time.

Guys, he's a HGH using one-season wonder who may be athletic but isn't good enough to start on almost any team. Its one of the worst contracts in baseball, you can easily replace his numbers with OFs in any team's minor league system.

A few quick notes on Lowe. I agree with everyone who says you can't ignore that he seemed to "decline" last season, but I still fall more in line with PWHjort on this one. First off is the fact that he wasn't consistently mediocre last year....he was brilliant, then terrible, then brilliant, then terrible. That's not the normal pattern of a pitcher in decline. That the pattern of a sinkerballer who went through a couple of tough stretches where he couldn't quite get his release just right. Also, one of the major selling points Boras used when shopping Lowe last year was how efficent he is with his pitches during a game. While I know Boras will say anything to help his clients, I think he really has a point with Lowe. The near 200 innings he pitches every year likely don't have the same wear and tear as they do on most pitchers, simply because it takes him fewer pitches per out that other pitchers. David O'Brien wrote the exact figures in a blog last offseason, so if anyone has access to those numbers they'd be interesting to see. But Lowe has been one of MLB's most efficient pitchers for some time now.

I think a lot of you guys are right about lowe just having an off year and i really liked the stats about the ground balls and line drives...i think he will bounce back but it isnt certain and his 15 mi paycheck is too much for an uncertainty...i think we can trade him for some veteran bullpen arms...4 quality starters and KK is plenty to help us to the playoffs and if there are injuries, we have medlen waiting in the wings for another chance...but if we bolster our bullpen, that is something that can help us every game versus only once every 5 days...i dont really know who would want to trade with us but like someone said, once the lackey deal is finalized there will be some other teams that feel that they need starting pitching...wren will find a way to get rid of him if thats what he wants to do

i think we sign nick johnson to an incentive based contract for 2 years tops (dont want to block freeman-even though he hasnt been hitting all that well) i really like the idea of delgado but i dont really see that happening-too much of a health concern

by getting rid of lowes contract, we free up alot of money to go after an outfield bat...i like holliday and i hope we get him...i dont think bay is going anywhere other than boston...they are going to overpay for him but still keep him...so we have mclouth, a free agent bat, and diaz until heyward is ready to come up...the fourth outfield spot is going to go to either church or schafer and theyll battle it out in spring training...conrad, infante, and one other bench player on the infield(not sure who; someone that can play good D at first preferably)

I don't think the Braves would have signed Hudson unless they already sent out enough feelers to make sure that they could trade one of their other starters. As a long time Braves fan I do know one thing. I can't think of a single time where they ever "ate" part of a contract. I don't think that changes now - particularly since their payroll is so tight.

Also, did anyone notice that Bobby left Lowe in waaay too long on a few occasions last year. These few bad outings negatively affected his stats. Lowe gave up 5 or more runs only six times during the season. However, he gave up 2 runs or less 16 times. Lowe is a workhorse that will give you 200+ innings every year and keep a good offensive/defensive team in almost every game. I think a lot of teams would want a player like that. Talent wise, I am fine having him back as a Brave next year. However, the Braves need the $$$ and Kawakami does well enough in the #5 starter role for much less money. Also, the Braves have a good young pitcher in Kris Medlen who could start in the even of injury.

Something I haven't seen mentioned here is trading for Dan Uggla and moving Martin Prado to 1B. Freddie Freeman will probably be ready for the majors at about the same time Chipper retires. At that point Prado moves to his more natural position at 3B and FF takes over at 1B.

I think Church and KJ are either non-tendered or traded for relief pitching. That should still leave some $$$ to sign a power hitting outfielder.

Nick Swisher's an option for LF. I think the Yankees like him, but after his postseason I can't imagine he'll be around much longer. And if they decide to keep Damon or Matsui, Swisher could be the odd man out.

DEREK LOWE must be a terrible problem! He only won 15 games in what many think was a poor or off year. The guy is good for up to 200 innings, won 15, is a plus as a team player and is signed for awhile. The world gave up on him because of one terrible game.

We are fortunate to have Derek and I'll be surprised if he doesn't win more games that Hudson in 2010. Just stay "lowe" in the weeds, Derek, and win 15 more!

Holliday for 5/85 isn't happening, either. He'll command more than that.

BravesAlltheWay,

I like that idea. Prado doesn't hit like a first-basemen, but Uggla does and he would make up for it. Not to mention, we would save money by not having to resign LaRoche. We could retain Soriano and Gonzo, and maybe even add another OF bat, giving us 2 more instead of one, although I don't know where he would fit in the lineup.

Didn't Lowe's K rate decrease and HR rate increase? Isn't that a sign of decline? Especially given that he is 36? He has bounced back in years past, but he has never been this old.

They should move him. He has value in this market and the Braves have holes in LF, 1B and the bullpen. If they can fill one of those needs while also gaining payroll flexibility, then they've done well.

SIGN ADAM LAROCHE, finally give right field to Diaz full time (he has earned it), somehow add a left fielder without giving up a starting pitcher and we will be better in 2010. Philadelphia will be hard to beat, but we will be close and may at least get the wild card. With a better first half, A NEW BATTING COACH and the desire to win one for Bobby, this can be quite a year! What's wrong with dreaming?

Everyone keeps saying A. Gonzalez will go to Boston, but I dont think they can do it without Buchholz (and I dont think that they will trade Buchholz).

Their other pitchers are not nearly as good and most of their hitters are overhyped.

I notice a common thread amongst a lot of these posts, and that's that people are forgetting the fact that the Braves are adding baseball's #1 prospect to the big league club. There's no need to add two outfielders, Heyward is coming up to man RF.

If they can figure out the money Holliday is a perfect fit for this team.

They traded Peavey (granted under a previous regime) who was also still on a reasonable contract. The Padres problem is that they are not going to win while they have Gonzalez under that ridiculously good contract, so they need to trade him and get something so that they can compete after that.

No one complains Lowe being our 5th best starter; it's the fact that he gets payed 15mm to be our 5th best starter.

Would you guys pull the trigger on this deal?

Angels get:

Derek Lowe - SP
Nate McLouth - CF

Braves get:

Torii Hunter - CF
Jose Arredondo - RP
Freddy Sandoval - 3B

Like Lowe has his upside if we forget the fact he is being paid 15 million, Matthews ha an upside. He makes a good job of getting on base, he runs pretty well, plays excellent defense, he is a switch hitter, and he can hit 15 homers playing everyday like he has done in the past. Lowe has a bigger upside considering the success he's had in the past, but he has 3/45mill left to Matthews 2yrs 23 mill, and he'd be filling a need, he is a gold glove caliber outfielder.

You can't ask for much in return. At least Matthews is a better player than Garret Anderson. It wouldn't be Matthews for Lowe straight up. No way. But Matthews and a prospect like Peter Bourjos(right handed CF, with excellent speed) for Lowe is something that might work out.

And if the braves sign Xavier Nady, then they'll at least have a better offense than this season. And they'll have enough money to sign a Billy Wagner, and another good reliever.

That'll make the defense, offense, base running and pitching better in every aspect. And financially it'll be even better.

No way the Angels trade Hunter

humannature

No Way for who? The Braves should consider this deal if it were offered.

Maybe because Hunter is 34 Y.O., he's owed 18 mil over the next 3 seasons. It's noy like they won't get a cheaper replacement in CF to replace him who has comparable speed and power.

Even though Hunter may have lost a step(which I can't tell) he's 10x better than McLouth in CF.

The point is, McLouth is still cheap and Hunter will be making $18 million. I thought the whole point was to dump Lowe's salary. Hunter for Lowe as the base of the trade with prospects thrown in would be more logical.

If the Braves were to get Gonzalez who's signed ridiculously cheap it would take an insane package. I'd venture to say. Jurrjens, Medlen, Freeman and Schafer and even then I still don't think they'd do it because of what Gonzalez means to that franchise.

Posted by: Jay212033 | October 30, 2009 at 05:03 PM

Do you actually believe this? If so then just wow. Jurrjens for 4 years is about equal to 2 of Gonzalez, and then you want the Braves to include Freeman (a top 20 hitter in the minors), Medlen who has some nice potential, and Schafer who still forecasts as an above average major league CF. That's ridiculous.

bravesfan22193

Take you homer shades off for a second and really think about it. So say if the Dodgers offered Chad Billingsley, James McDonald, Andrew Lambo and Devaris Gordon for Brian McCann would you do it?

The Cards need pitching, Ludwick for Lowe. Throw in Omar, that might get it done. If they lose out on Holliday they will need to move Shumaker back to the OF and Smoltz and a minor leaguer are who they are considering for a 4th and 5th starter so a rotation of Wainright, Carpenter, Lowe, Pineiro and Smoltz could be a real good one. Of course the problem with that is they have to keep Ankiel and DeRosa and pray they bounce back.

Now, I think the most important and beneficial thing the Braves can do is when Heyward comes up in June, to offer him a Longoria style extension. Get him locked up early.

"If the Braves were to get Gonzalez who's signed ridiculously cheap it would take an insane package. I'd venture to say. Jurrjens, Medlen, Freeman and Schafer and even then I still don't think they'd do it because of what Gonzalez means to that franchise."

That is a ridiculous package for Gonzalez. Yes, he is a great player, but so is Jurrjens. Then Medlen Freeman and Schafer are three of our best prospects. I really do think a Jurrjens Schafer deal could get us both Agone and Bell

please keep vasquez
let lowe go, I like him, but we would be better to get rid of the money for other needs, not knocking his ability, but the braves need to keep the swing and miss stuff with vasquez, its good to have one sinker baller on the team in hudson, get the bat hopefully for lowe, buy a firstbaseman and a sub par type reliever and honestly i will take my chances with anyone in the national league, we have a good chance, that being said, it doesn't matter what we do, the braves will be there the whole year, so don't count us out in the east, its gonna be fun