Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

no he meant Josh Wilson. He was the backup to Jack after Z made the deal with the Pirates

uh....thome is less than a year younger than griffey.

This could be a scary club next year. I like the mention of getting Hardy, though I'm not sure what it will since there are a lot of other teams willing to trade for him.

In my opinion, with this being a weaker class of free agents than most years, the M's would do best to extend Felix first and foremost with the extra cash. 10+ years is not too long! But, realistically, probably a 6-year deal for something ungodly enough to keep him here. Then, ink a couple low-cost, high-risk, high-reward starters (say two of bedard, harden and sheets for example). There's no bats built for safeco available this year. So, I'd put the focus on defense again this season, save $15M or so of that cash and sit on it til next year's crop comes up. Trade market is there, and jacky z knows how to use it, so I'd be more than happy with a trade-based approach too.

The M's have the potential to challenge the Angels for the division next year, this off-season is a crucial one for them.

I liked the focus on defense, but they clearly need bats to contend next year. Hardy would be a good option at SS, but perhaps they should think bigger via a trade to bring in a bigtime hitter.

They should definitely try to lock up King Felix. Pitchers that good only come around once in awhile.

I sure hope the mariners trade king felix to the red sox. Is it possible that we trade u guys 3 prospects and 50 million or so for felix?

"The M's have the potential to challenge the Angels for the division next year, this off-season is a crucial one for them."
Remember when we were just one big arm away from the world series? and everyone thought it'd be bedard? This team is a lot more than one or two bats away from contention. We need to learn from that and not make any rash moves. We should keep the momentum going, but build for a run in 2011.

You can't just send $50 million for a player. If that were the case, you'd see the Yankees offering these types of deals left and right.

I sure hope the mariners trade king felix to the red sox. Is it possible that we trade u guys 3 prospects and 50 million or so for felix?

Posted by: harrison | October 26, 2009 at 06:08 PM

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That would probably be about the only way the Sox could make a trade anyways. They really don't have enough good players to offer Seattle to match up for a trade.

Colby, you beat me to it.

Ichiro's salary IS deferred, but not the whole sum, only $4MM a season, but still that's a nice chunk of change to have laying around.

I'm assuming they will extend the payroll to an even $100MM and leave about $5MM for mid-season acquisitions.

Carp, Wilson, and Tuiasosopo won't be on the MLB team atleast as long as everyone is healthy...

Wilson will leave in free agency or return to AAA Tacoma.

Carp and Tui will get optioned to Tacome for sure.

Langerhans will be non-tendered.

Saunders will become the 4th OF.

Jack Wilson will have his option bought out.

Snell's contract this year is all but being paid for by the Pirates. Part of the deal was that Seattle would only have to pay Wilson and Snell the league minimum for '09, Wilson's buyout, and league minimum for Snell in '10. So that's $3.8MM less also...

In reality, the Mariners have about $50-$55MM obligated including arb. raises (not figuring the bump Felix would get when a long-term deal is worked out).

Carp, Tui, etc. will all make $50K next year in AAA, so that's a gross misprojection.

At the end of the day, the Mariners need to sign Felix, Lopez (extension), Gutierrez, Beltre, Branyan, Bedard, Rowland-Smith, and Aardsma to long-term deals.

The Mariners need a 3B (Beltre, Iwamura, ???), a SS (Stephen Drew, Brando Phillips, Reid Brignac, ???), a 1B (Branyan, LaRoche, ???), a LF (Crawford, Sizemore, Bradley, Holliday, Bay, ???), a SP or 2 SP (Bedard, Harden, Sheets, ???), and a veteran catcher should/could be Jaime Burke (minor league free agent) and they should carry 3 catchers total with Sweeney's spot on the roster going to Moore (DH/PH/3rd Catcher).

What I would do...

Re-sign Beltre $27MM over 3 years with a $9MM option for a 4th season.

Re-sign Bedard to a 3 year deal worth $20MM ($4MM in '10, $8MM in '11 & '12, with an option at $8MM for a 4th season).

Re-sign Branyan for $15MM over 3 years with a $5MM option for a 4th season.

Renew Griffey's '09 Contract for '10.

Extend Felix for 8 years at $160MM with the King making 17.5MM for '10 & '11. Then he would make $22.5MM in '16 & '17, with the other 4 seasons coming in at $20MM even per year.

Extend Lopez for 3 more years (already under control thru 2011) at $20MM total with a $7MM option.

Give Gutierrez a similar contract with a hefy bump in raise for the first two years of his arbitration, meaning 5 years for $30MM and a $7MM option with a $1MM buyout for a 6th season. Essentially locking him up for the first 4 years of his free agency.

This leaves holes in LF, SS, and SP.

I would sign Harden to an incentive based deal with an option (maybe a $5MM base with an $8MM option and a $1M buyout) signing him should be relatively easy because he's from Victoria B.C. and it doesn't sound like the Cubs want him anymore.

I would then offer whatever it took to get Hanley Ramirez for SS. His contract jumps up significantly in '10 and then again in '11. Based on what the Marlins wanted for Miguel Cabrera, the asking price won't be that high. I think the Red Sox just didn't want to include the player that the Marlins wanted and it was probably something like Lester, Pedroia, and a couple prospects (both guys are signed to fairly team friendly contracts).

I'm guessing that the Marlins would start the asking price with B. Morrow, M. Pineda, D. Fister, C. Triunfel, and A. Liddi. As far as I'm concerned, they can throw in D. Cortes, Jo. Fields, and G. Halman for Josh Johnson to be included. Probably they would have to mix and match the prospects a little to what Florida needs. Maybe Carp gets added to play 1B, or they take a chance on LaHair. But I think there are enough pieces to get something done.

If the Mariners were able to acquire Josh Johnson he would slot into the #3 spot in the rotation behind Bedard and Harden would not be signed, unless as a reliever.

The final move would be to acquire Sizemore while his value is low. Shapiro practically GIVES players away, just look at the Sabathia, Lee, and Martinez trades. There is no reason to think that an injury plagued 2009 + a rising salary won't make Sizemore VERY AFFORDABLE in trade compared to the value he will give his new team. Figure it would have to start with Saunders to replace him in CF, the over-value relievers like Masterson, so Aumont should interest them significantly, add in a couple low level/high ceiling arms, and you have your new Seattle LF.

So to recap, they would bring back ALL of their free agents EXCEPT for Batista, they would trade for Hanley and Johnson of the Marlins, and trade for Sizemore of the Indians.

RF Ichiro
SS Ramirez
LF Sizemore
CF Gutierrez
1B Branyan
2B Lopez
DH Griffey
3B Beltre
C Johnson

Burke - C
Moore - C/DH
Hall - UTL
Hannahan - INF

SP - Felix
SP - Bedard
SP - Jo. Johnson/Harden
SP - Snell
SP - Rowland-Smith

CP - Aardsma
SU - Lowe
SU - White
MR - Olson
MR - Kelley
LR - Jakubauskus
LR - Vargas

And they could set aside money from the 2010 payroll to offset higher payrolls in future seasons, or to finally get out from under their part of the Safeco Field debt which would allow Seattle to raise the payroll to in excess of $115MM to $120MM every year with the stadium being paid off completely.

This whole offseason ultimately hinges on what they decide to do with Felix Hernandez. I would say that the chances are pretty slim that he goes into next season with the Mariners and without a new contract either signed or in deep negotiations. You just don't get enough value for a guy like Felix when you trade him at the deadline.

I can assure you that Josh Wilson will not be the starting shortstop come April. If they can agree to a contract with Jack Wilson, I could see him being back, but it won't be for $7 mil. I wouldn't expect them to bring in a leftfielder, and the idea of bringing in a catcher hinges on if management believes Adam Moore is able to shoulder at least half the catching load. They've shown faith in Rob Johnson, despite his offensive limitations, and the pitchers like him. It would make sense to give Moore a chance with a timeshare coming out of spring training.

I don't think it would be out of question for the team to swing a deal for a starter. Seems like Danks would be pricey, more than what Cameron thought it would take (Lopez, Lowe, and Vargas). Sheets makes sense, though. But I would expect them to try to maintain payroll liquidity, and not acquire any huge contracts, while they decide what to do with Felix.

bjsguess... Hmmm, the Angels were arguably the 2nd best team in baseball? Yeah you'll get an argument. First off, the Yankees, the Phillies, the Dodgers, the Rangers, the Mariners, and the Braves were all better teams. The Angels record was based on a couple things...

a) they had far fewer injuries than Seattle (sorry losing Escobar who has made like 20-25 starts over his contract [exagerating... slightly] as an Angel does not mean the same thing as losing Rowland-Smith or Beltre for 1/2 a season each. Losing Santana who was TOTALLY ineffective means nothing. Technically the Angels won MORE games because he didn't bring his b.s. 5+ ERA to the ball park for a few weeks. A loss is where you pay a rediculous amount of money for a player after one over-achieving season in 2008.

b) How many of the Angels had career years this season? Morales, Rivera, Hunter, Aybar, Izturis, Napoli, etc. How many Mariners had career years? Lopez and Gutierrez, but they are 26, not 30+ like most of the guys on the Angels who had career years.

c) The Angels won a lot of games late when other teams gave it away, like Nathan pitching like crap around the trade deadline, but only for the Angels series. Or how about the Kansas City meltdown a couple months ago? Yeah, the Angels are not that good and they are about to lose a good chunk of their team. You lose Abreu or he just starts to get old, than their offense goes from good to average, you lose Figgins and/or Guerrero and the team will be below average. I guarantee that Hunter's 2009 season is like Beltre's 2004 season, it won't EVER happen again. Rivera is over 30 years old and he just all of a sudden became a plus provider of offense in LF? Sure he was decent before, but not .300/.350/.450 with 30 HR and 100 RBI. I'm sorry but the whole offense overachieved this year for the Angels AND DEFINITELY you are not the 2nd best team in baseball when your team ERA is closer to 5 than it is to 4. My God, some of the hyperbole you Angels throw around about your Angels being so great, as if this team in Anaheim wasn't the same one on paper that was missing a lot of pieces going into the offseason after Teixeira and F. Rodriguez both left for NY. Plus, give me a break Fuetes is NOT an elite closer, he's a joke and he throws like a girl. The Mariners chased him out of the game 3 times in the last 6 games. The Mariners get to tee-off on him all next season. The AL will not be so friendly next year to Fuentes, GUARANTEED.

661dodgerblue, WAS A TOP 3 CF, WAS, WAS, WAS... AS IN GRIFFEY WAS A TOP 3 CF. YOU ARE DUMB.

Sizemore is going to have to move to a corner, sooner than later with his leg injury, he wasn't all that fast to begin with and this will take away a little of his speed. Also, he's still a 140 SO to 80 BB hitter.

Gutierrez, Kemp, Beltran, that's the Top 3. There are others in front of Sizemore right now. It's called, what have you done for me lately. Sizemore was a whole lot of injured and NOBODY knows if he'll be the player he once was. So shut up with your hyperbole.

Iknowalil..... Sorry man but that stuff is just plain unrealistic. Actually, more along the lines of ridiculous.

My own rosterbation registers in something like this.

Ditch Griffey, Bedard and Jack Wilson. Re-sign Sweeney and Branyan. Forget about Beltre and his swinging at pitches 4 feet outside.

Now that thats out of the way. Sign Orlando Hudson since LA probably won't offer arbitration. Trade Morrow to Milwaukee for Hardy. Here's a little whackier idea. Deal Aardsma for Adam Dunn. Aardsma is still under club control for a few more years and the Nats are now where near ready to win. Dunn is on the last year of his deal at ~9 million. Aardsma makes nothing and is a good closer. Something the Nats don't have. Storen is the is in line for the job but isn't there yet. Saves the Nats a ton of money and gets them a quality late inning guy that will be around for 2 or 3 more years. I really don't like any LFers on the market (just say NO to Bay). So I give the job to Saunders out of the gate and tender Langerhans a contract for the 4th OF. And platoon the catching job between Moore and Johnson. With Moore getting the bulk.

Hopefully Zdruiencik goes after a high upside SP this winter as well. I'm hoping for Sheets. The loss of Aardsma will hardly be felt with Lowe being able to step in and Josh Fields and Phillipe Aumont on the doorstep.

RF Ichiro
2B Hudson
3B Lopez
DH Dunn
1B Branyan
SS Hardy
CF Gutierrez
C Moore
LF Saunders

Util B. Hall
OF Langerhans
1B/DH Sweeney
C Johnson
INF J. Hannahan/Josh Wilson

SP Felix
SP Sheets
SP RRS
SP Snell
SP Silva/Fister/Vargas/French

LR Silva/Fister/Vargas
MR Jakubauskas
MR Kelley
MR Olson/French
SU Sean White
CL Mark Lowe

..would be the gist. Not entirely happy with the pen but that can sort itself out in spring training with some more NRIs and low cost acquisitions.

But that team is maybe a player or two away from having a good shot at overtaking the Angels. And without taking on huge contracts or spending a ton of money.

Oh yeah.. RE-SIGN FELIX!!!

I think the Mariners have the prospects to get a Hanley Ramirez or Grady Sizemore type player, I just think the front office places more of an emphasis on player development. The other problem is that Seattle doesn't have many premium type prospects. Triunfel is a stud but lost a year of development due to his broken leg, and Ackley certainly isn't going anywhere.

No Matsui suggestion? This really is the only logical place for him to go aside from staying in New York. I think he'd be great power help to the middle of Seattle's lineup.

I don't follow them closely and have a hard time knowing how good this team is. They were an incredible 35 and 20 in 1-run games which propelled them to a record of 85W/77L. But their runs scored to runs allowed was 640/692, meaning they projected to be only a 75 win team.

There is a very clear reason why I always check the comments on mariners post and I think it presents itself here.

The only believable part of that short story was Felix's extension. Although its still low. His deal will absolutely be bigger than Sabathias.

Oh wow. Looks like a certain "Guru" has decided to dawn on another M's post.

Dont know either why theres not more Matsui discussions, his bat would do well at lefty friendly Safeco. I guess him and Ichiro dont like each other though, and nobody want to make Ichiro unhappy here!

I would like to see JZ make a move for Crawford! Ive said it before, he is not off limits like some people have mentioned. TB listened to offers for him last year and Im sure would move him for young position players. Ackley I think gets a shot at 1B before he gets put in the OF so Crawford in LF makes perfect sense.

if they have to:
trade felix, aardsma for billingsley, mcdonald, broxton, loney, hu ?????

Posted by: crash | October 26, 2009 at 09:56 PM

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no way LA gets Felix unless Kemp/Ethier and/or Kershaw is included

Seattle could have netted Adrian Gonzalez and a boatload of prospects from Boston including Buchholz at the deadline with Felix going to Boston and Zduriencik turned it down.

and in related news Giants trade 6 single A players for Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander.

Iknow is at it again.

Let's not debate how good the Angels are. You made your opinion clear when you compared the M's to the Angels and had the M's better or equal at every position but maybe 3. It's not even funny how clouded your vision is.

As for your trade proposals ... don't even know what to say. Even with "Force Trades" turned on, I bet your PS3 would still block your proposed moves. You are just being ridiculous. No way you get Hanley, JJ, or Sizemore - let alone all 3.

Please join us back on planet earth.

I think that the Angels have to make a lot of moves this offseason to be the same team they where this year. (top 3 to 5 in the league). Their problem is that they are losing 4 of the best free agents and unless they replace them with equal or better players they can expect to be worse.

I think that losing Lackey automatically downgrades their pitching (He is the best starter available) and if Oliver retires, that further depletes their team.

Add the potential loss of Abreu, Figgins, and Vlad and they can see a real drop. Unless they are in the market for Holliday, Bay, or Damon I think that Abreu is the next best outfielder on the market.

That being said, Seattle would need to make a significant investment AND have a couple of career years to catch the Angels.

My prediction is that the Angel battle Texas down the the wire and probably hold them off.

ECT,

The Angels are gonna be fine, I agree.

What do mariners fans think about trading King Felix for the dodgers Clayton Kershaw cuz YANKEESDODGERSLAKERSFSAN4LIFE says KERSHAW'S better Right Now!LOL!

ECT and dodgeblue - I understand that you think that the Angels are in a good spot, but I dont see the argument.

If the Angels let all four of their free agents go (I dont think they will do that), they definately lose ground in starting pitching and DEFINATELY lose speed. I only refer to speed because you claimed that they could choose to ADD (??) speed if the want.

The problem is that I dont see the replacements in the free agent market. Kazmir is not nearly as good as Lackey (as his ERA, WHIP, and every other measure shows). Also, losing Figgins and Abreu will completely change the type of baseball that this team plays. How many times have teams lost the 1 and 2 hitters from one season to the next and returned to the playoffs?

If I where them I would make a priority to sign Figgins, and take Vlad back if he gives the discount that some think is coming. I would probably look to resign Abreu for $9m per year (2 years seems fair) and at least try to sign Lackey. If they miss on Lackey, i think they should target one of Harden, Sheets, Bedard and and then maybe try to sign Mike Gonzalez (or someone like that) to the bullpen. If the dont get Abreu, they should look at Nady.

the ussm's plan isn't a good one and misses a ton of things but that's why they aren't running a baseball team and never will. We'll just have to wait and see what Z does really. I don't think we are that far off from the Angels - just a few players really that can be found this offseason if Z gets creative. Also, Bay IS the type of player we should be considering. ussm's rediculous comparison of him to Sexson shows only their bias for not liking anyone over 30 or even 28 for that matter, lol.

Whoops--those last 2 comments should be g. and h., respectively.

Sorry. :o

To the moron that thinks Sizemore is better than Gutierrez, go look at his UZR. Gutierrez was off the charts like 28+ UZR with a 10 point lead over the second highest UZR in all of baseball at any position, let alone CF. Combine that with close to a 20/20 season hitting around a .285/.350/.450 slash line for most of the season and even better than that after they fixed his eye problem in the end of April. Gutierrez probably will be closer to a 25/25 player next year with 90-100 rbi, and a slash line of .300/.365/.475 and he'll almost definitely be a 20+ UZR player as it was his jump on the ball that got him there, not speed, and that's why he will be an elite CF for a long time.

Please someone tell me how Boston acquires Martinez from the Indians for a couple bullpen arms, one coming off T.J. surgery and signed to a relatively similar deal to Sizemore's contract, elicit a feeling of this is reasonable nad to suggest that the Mariners could give an even better package for Sizemore coming off a bad season and not get him? Let's see here, who plays a more valueable position? Martinez. Who was the better contributor offensively? Martinez. Who is the bigger fan favorite and clubhouse leader? Martinez. Yet they took Hagadone (tommy john surgery within the last year), Masterson, and someone else for Martinez. I don't give a damn who the 3rd player is they added to the deal for Martinez; offering Saunders, Aumont, + 2 high ceiling A-ball pitchers for Sizemore would be an instant trigger pull on a deal. Talk all the crap you want, but Saunders is younger, healthier, and projects to have similar skill sets. Throwing in Aumont and some potential arms to help long term and this deal is irresistible.

It floors me how so many stupid people go off on tangents and use the same tired video game analogy, clearly showing they can't even tie their own shoes let alone create an original thought, yet they don't even look at what the GMs in question do, NOT what THEY would do. This isn't about you saying "I wouldn't trade Sizemore", you aren't Shapiro and he'd sell his own mom 50% off, just to clear expenditures. Based on how Shapiro has handled the organization and the other big named stars, there is little chance he passes on a deal like that. I am saying "I WOULD TRADE SAUNDERS FOR SIZEMORE" and I think "SHAPIRO WOULD TRADE SIZEMORE FOR THE DEAL I SUGGESTED"... HOWEVER... Just because you WOULD NOT do it, does NOT mean I wouldn't and that the deal is unreasonable. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OPINION AND EDUCATED HYPOTHESIS... I AM GIVING AND EDUCATED GUESS, YOU ARE SAYING YOUR OPINION...

Facts support a Sizemore for prospects deal more than your theory that he'd require a boatload. Sizemore is good and a potential All-Star every season, but he is far from elite as a player... High strikeouts, currently an ugly injury history as of recent, average at best ccontact skills (.270s AVG career), reduced leg speed (slight but noticeable) and a weaker throwing arm that in pervious seasons.

As a CF, Sizemore is a notch or two above the average starter in the league with his peripheral numbers and he would be a huge upgrade at a corner, but to act like Shapiro would demand more than Sabathia, Lee, or Martinez, well that's ignorant.

Sizemore is a elite hitter, he was hurt this year. Hes a good outfielder and a very good basestealer.

I do not think one farm system in baseball could get all those players. Well if you are talking about draining almost 25 players from the farm.. I guess so.

Carlos Triunfel was hurt
Greg Halman was really bad
Phillipe Aumont is a good prospect
Juan Ramirez

How can you be anymore biased?

To "Iknowalilsomethingaboutsomething":
I'm sure you do...it's just not baseball.