Red Sox Rumors: Bay, Drew, Bard

Yeah, J.D. Drew has quietly become underrated, somehow.

He may not stay healthy enough to play in 150 games, but he's been good for 539+ PA in three of the past four seasons. He's a very patient hitter that gets a ton of walks, he's got solid power, he's a very good baserunner although he doesn't steal many bases, and he's one of the better corner outfielders in the game defensively.

People can complain about his demeanor or his unwillingness to play hurt as much as they want, but realistically, Drew has worked out pretty well for Boston.

Hitting is not the Sox issue. It's their starting pitching! Epstein is very overrated as a GM and he needs to stop trying to get Felix Hernandez and start negotiations with John Lackey.

Lackey has an outstanding record against the Yankees and that is quite enough to sign him.

Move Wakefield to the bullpen.

So glad to hear intelligent discussion about of J.D. He's been worth every penny; and much of his success has come while playing through serious back pain. Next year is a contract year, so we may see even better, maybe not. He is a dirt dog in his own way, and leaves it all out there.

Hellion, if the Sox don't trade for AGon, their rotation will be Beckett, Lester, Daisuke, Buchholz, Wake and probably Harden/Bedard orSheets, with Bowden & Tazawa finally getting in their time in AAA. With Buchholz and Daisuke looking great and the availability of FA's like Harden, Theo won't be going after Felix or Halladay, because he no longer needs them.

hey Yankee fan,
Do you think Arod is worth the 32 million for batting .268 in 2009 regular season? Or Tex 22 million for batting .111 in the postseason?

Please understand I am not hating on Drew and would say the same regardless of who he plays for. Does it shock anyone that Drew is the HIGHEST paid player with the Sox now?

It's freakishly amazing when you look at the track record Ortiz had in the 3 seasons leading up to his current contract extension that he signed in 2007 (same year as Drew) and compare that to the track record of Drew AND THEN realize that despite the obvious disparity between the two players, Drew signed for $14 mil per while Ortiz signed for $12.5 mil per.

First off, here is his line for 09 jackass. 137 games+3 playoff games .279 24 hrs 68 rbis .392 obp .522 slug .914 ops. Which isn't bad at all for a number 8 hitter. His best year he has had for the sox. He has done very well for us.

Second, your a yanks fan no one cares about you're opinion.

Drew is very underrated. If he could actually stay healthy for a full year, he would be very deadly.

Posted by: YOUUUUK_redsoxnation | October 22, 2009 at 10:25 AM
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First off, did I come here and star spouting off stupid name calling or did I simply offer an opinion? Did I say Drew was a "this" or "that" or did I simply question the opinion that he was worth $14 million? Wow..

Anyway, you pretty much made my point..."if he could stay healthy he would be very deadly". So if team A were to go out and sign Eric Bedard and Bedard proceeded to pitch 125 amazing innings before being shut down in July/August each year of a 5/70 mil contract would that make the deal a "good one"?

AROD hit .286 for the season.

"129 gms, 18 hrs, 65 rbi and .278/.391 for MOL bat earning $14 mil per?"

You're ignoring his gap power, baserunnung and defensive skills and underestimating the value of his on-base skills.

A plus defensive right fielder and baserunner with .280/.400/.520 ability offensively is definitely worth $14M if he's getting 520-580 PA.

I think that you're looking at him in a far too traditional manner.

Posted by: scribbletone | October 22, 2009 at 10:21 AM
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I don't think I am. I just think there's a certain skill set you expect from a RF earning $14 mil per and I don't think Drew delivers it and his inability to stay on the field for 150 games a season is part of the reason.

(Directed at Epstein) ...

If we are going to start using FanGraphs as our one and only way to evaluate a players worth then we will get in trouble.

Drew maybe worth $14m (on average) between 2007 and 2009 according the Fangraphs. What does that make a guy like Holliday worth. He has averaged $28m/year over those same 3 years.

Fangraphs places way too much emphasis on fielding. Solid defenders will see their WAR go through the roof. As we know, defensive metrics range from being poor (at best) to downright awful (at worst).

Prime example - Bobby Abreu. In 2008 his defense was good for a -25 UZR rating. In 2009 his defense was -9. Prior to 2008 his worst defensive year was 2006 at -14. Abreu has been ranked as high as +15 (2003). So, was Abreu really THAT bad in 2008? Was he epically bad? Did he suddenly remember how to field in 2009? I don't think so. In a player like Abreu his defense should be fairly consistent, showing a downward trend with age as his range is reduced. Instead he defense is all over the place from year to year with swings of 10 or more runs annually.

Now getting to valuation. In 2008 his offensive contribution was very similar to what he contributed to the Angels in 2009. Yet because of the defensive metrics Abreu was worth $5.6m in 2008 while he topped out at $11.9m in 2009. The doubling of his value is attributable SOLELY to his defensive improvement.

I'm sorry but there is NO WAY that Abreu's value doubled (from 08 to 09) simply because he played better in the outfield this year.

Drew derives a huge portion of his value from his defensive contributions. Once you scale that back a bit suddenly his salary doesn't look great. The fact is that Drew is being paid like a superstar and he has never come close to being a superstar during his time in Boston.

YankeeFan: The reason ortiz only got 12.5 was because he is a DH and doesnt play the field. What people dont realize is that Drew was not paid 14MM for his offensive stats. I believe both redsox fans and yankee fans especially both fall into the problem. Their teams are so offense focused that all they look at is the offensive stats and never the fielding stats.

Regarding Arod, I agree that no one is worth that much but when he is being paid 32MM, all you need to do is point out the flaws in his game to prove it wrong. So what, he hit 30HR and 100 RBI's.

There are 19 players who hit 30 HR and 100 RBI's this year. Of those 19, Arod was T-last for HR's, T-2nd last for RBI's (threw Werth in there with 36, 99), 11th in AVG, 3rd in OBP, 7th in OPS, 12th in slg, scored the least amount of runs. In no way am i saying he is a horrible player, because he does deserve to be in the class of the elite, but he is just another guy who hits for power, low BA, and poor fielding percentage. He is actually very comparable to Jason Bay in most stats and a poor fielder. If he were to have remained at SS then he would be alot closer to the 32MM but with him being a below avg fielder at 3B it diminishes his value. With Texas his UZR at SS was 12.6 and 10.9 respectively which is very good, way above his counterpart Jeter who has been negative his entire career.

At the end, i see A-Rod as being the normal hitter these days with his AVG slipping and his poor fielding.

Really peter. I love fangraphs, but using it as the end all be all of value for what players should be paid is a huge mistake. It really overrates defense, particularly range.

Any decision maker in baseball would say that A-Rod was a more productive player and contributed more to his teams success this year than JD Drew. Would any of them want to pay them what they are respectively getting paid, prolly not. Just another way to look at it.

JD Drew is a solid player. Is he the best player on the Red Sox? No. Does he deserve to be the highest paid player on the Red Sox? No. But those are the realities.

"I don't think I am. I just think there's a certain skill set you expect from a RF earning $14 mil per and I don't think Drew delivers it and his inability to stay on the field for 150 games a season is part of the reason."

See, that's exactly the problem. Drew is the prototypical slugging right fielder with big HR/RBI numbers, so he immediately comes off as a disappointment.

But a lot of those slugging guys have huge holes in the rest of their game, while Drew is a very complete player.

He doesn't hit more than 20-25 HR per season, but he has good gap power, and I'm sorry but you just can't underestimate the value of a .390+ OBP, even if it comes from a position where power is the primary trait looked for.

Drew offers a ton of value, it's just not in the prototypical way, so he comes off like a disappointment.

AROD missed 30 games because of hip surgery and he still drove in 100 runs and hit 30 HRs.
He is an above average defensive 3B .

Yankeefan: my point was never to compare drew to arod in terms of talent or production. Arod is a sub par fielder at his position where drew is one of the best fielders at his respective position. A-Rod is a DH put at 3B, or should have remained at SS. But A-Rod is just like Manny, can put up great numbers but a poor fielder at their position. It is arguable that 3B is harder than OF but regardless they are both very poor fielders. They are both DH's put in the field. Manny had a hard time get 20MM and A-Rod and his stats are very comparable. A-Rod should top out at 20MM max

Arod is an above average 3B with a rifle arm.
What games are you watching ?
A bit myopic to say the least.

Yankeefan: my point was never to compare drew to arod in terms of talent or production. Arod is a sub par fielder at his position where drew is one of the best fielders at his respective position. A-Rod is a DH put at 3B, or should have remained at SS. But A-Rod is just like Manny, can put up great numbers but a poor fielder at their position. It is arguable that 3B is harder than OF but regardless they are both very poor fielders. They are both DH's put in the field. Manny had a hard time get 20MM and A-Rod and his stats are very comparable. A-Rod should top out at 20MM max

Posted by: yankeesuck0902 | October 22, 2009 at 11:35 AM
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Arod is far from a sub par 3B. I wouldn't say he is one of the best but I think he's certainly slightly above average.

How is 3B vs any OF positon other than CF a viable arguement? 3B is a much more demanding position than LF/RF.

Drew is slightly overpaid I believe. Fangraphs does tend to be on the high side in my opinion with their numbers, but it does have some good rationale behind it. Back to my original sentence, Drew is overpaid, but not by nearly as much as I think everyone believed when the deal was made.

How did this conversation turn to Arod? Can any accept a difference of opinion w/o trying to make it a Yanke/Sox issue? All I meant was that I thought Drew wasn't worth the 5/70 he signed for. IMO he's worth closer to 5/50. If you disagree then so be it.

The whole point of this thread is to discussion in a, hopefully, factual manner as to why Drew is or is not worth 14MM per year. With the argument being that defense is or isnt valued that high.

Yankeesfan, your argument was that it was weighted too much and shouldnt be taken into account as much as MLBTR and FanGraphs takes it into account. Someone brought up Arod and you got very defensive and threw in a couple offensive stats. Yes Terry was rediculous for his comments just because you are a yankee fan.

Personally, i think you are somewhat of a homer fan and praise ARod. I was using Arod as a means of comparing Drew and Arod's value.

Using a highly respected website that MLBTR has used on multiple occassions, i related A-Rod to Ortiz to Drew when you were the one who brought up Ortiz.

The research does say that ARod is a sub par 3B, 4th out of 5 in the AL East alone, just ahead of Mike Lowell, but behind Youk if you wanted to switch lowell and youk. The order goes Longoria, Rolen, Mora, Youk, Arod, Lowell according to their fielding rating. Therfore, my point is that Arod is a DH (same as Lowell who would be DH if it wasnt for Papi), and Ortiz was at 12.5MM because he is very one dimensional and that is why Drew is at 14MM

Maybe you feel like your being attacked, but a discussion is usually between two parties with different opinions and i guess your really the only person in your party so its hard to not feel attacked. Diferences in opinions is what leads to a good debate and that is what these threads are for.

One way or another, the discussion led to Arod but i wouldnt say that it was completely off topic to the discussion

Red Sox Dynasty: Me personally, i am not so much defending his contract as i am more defending the idea that fielding definately is/should be taken into account and not overlooked as much as everyone overlooks it. Sox fans and Yankee fans are very accustomed to scoring runs and that is all we care about, we dont care about defense and spectacular plays in the field. I think it is a skill that is overlooked by many fans and people focus contracts on strictly offensive production and not their well-rounded skills.

Also, personally, i think everyone is paid too much and the players are very greedy in what they make. I think everyone is valued too high and that drew should be around 5/50 but more for other reasons.

you do know that Drew was looking for a 4 yr 14/15MM per contract right? So its not like your estimation of what he will make is really any news because that is what the player wanted and that is usually going by what the economy was before.

As for whoever said Drew was a 5 or 6 in the Sox lineup, he was actually the 7 alot and then 8 at the end of the year so that also has some reasoning to his decrease in numbers.

Bay and Drew value very close to eachother. What one lacks in offense, the other lacks in defense. With that being said, Drew is not a 14MM player to EVERY team. I believe your OF should consist of a power hitter, speedy obp player, and an avg to aboe avg offensive player that is very well rounded with defensive abilities. The Red Sox have that Bay, Ellsbury, and Drew respectively.

Teams that need the power bat do not value Bay as highly.

I wish I could go into a coma and wake up the day when everyone accepts that and understands why RBI are meaningless.

RBI aren't completely meaningless. They're definitely not the the most effective stat, but they can be used to show a number of things. I think they are better served as showing how bad someone is opposed to how good they are. Like if someone hits 35 HR but only has 70 RBI, they're probably all power and no clutch. I know that there's better stats to show those things, but i'm just trying to show that they aren't as useless as some people on this site make them seem.

Rodriguez is NOT a good defender at third, sorry.

He's posted below-average UZR's in three of the past four seasons, accumulating to a -19.8 UZR from 2006-2009, and that's a pattern.

I wish I could go into a coma and wake up the day when everyone accepts that and understands why RBI are meaningless.

Posted by: zsberenyi | October 22, 2009 at 12:56 PM
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RBI are not a meaningless stat. Rather, it's a meaningless stat without additional statistics to put things in perspective.

If Arod hits .290 w/ 35 hrs and drive in 130 runs and has batters 1-3 who avg a .390 OBP then that's one scenario.

If Pujols hit .350 w/ 45 hrs and 50 IBBB and drives in 100 runs then that's another scenario.

If someone were to say Arod is better than Pujols because he drove in 30 rbi then that would be a poor arguement because Pujols simply has fewer rbi opportunities.

You can't DISCOUNT what Arod does because he still has to do his job of driving in runners on base. But at the same time a more logical conclusion would be that Pujols had the better year despite not having as many run opportunities in front of him.

I think the greatest statistics used poorly become meanigless.

ugen, yah on top of that 30+hr, 100+ rbi, he's the one that should be making 32MM

Nick: there is alot that goes into the fielding rating. One reason why bay led the league in OF assists was because of a very short left field. I think its more of the position and field than the player. I dont know if you realize but Manny always led the league in assists or was up there. He was a horrible left fielder though. Its not just a matter of how many errors or put outs. I actually believe that the more assists come from the poorer fielders because base runners take more chances on you. In Markakis's case, he just has a cannon for an arm, but strong arm doesnt always equal great defensive player if you cant harness the power.

"and here is the AL RF standings"

You need to put these statistics into perspective. UZR can fluctuate fairly greatly from year-to-year, so a player can decline statistically according to UZR, but actually show zero signs of decline in his play. UZR becomes more reliable and more accurate with every inning that a player plays, and only with a substantial sample size does the statistic have legitimate relevance.

When it comes to UZR, it's best to look at the player's entire career or sections of his career, and look for patterns. It's much, much better to use three, four or five years of UZR data than one.

"Really? Fangraphs is not really accurate in fielding rankings. Nick Markakis is a very good fielder, also, Jason Bay is an underrated fielder. If I'm not mistaken he led all ML OF with the most assists, and he made no errors this year."

You'll never sound smart if you say that UZR isn't accurate but assists/errors are.

There seem to be 2 facts here.

While Drew isn't really worth 14million a year (you could get close to his production a lot cheaper) - you have to remember he was signed in a different market, he was signed in the market that valued Zito at 126million dollars, not the current market that values Abreu at 5million.

A lot of people signed 2004 - 2006 were overpaid.

Second - What Epstein is basically saying and I agree is that this idea Drew has been a bust is just not true. He is producing at an acceptable level and a acceptable level for his pay.

He has carried the Sox a few times, and no AL outfielder has a better post-all star OPS. So to say he was a bad sign is just wrong. Its just wrong. Interestingly Drew had one of the highest OPS of AL Outfielders this year too.

"I think the greatest statistics used poorly become meanigless."

You're right, RBI aren't meaningless, they're just completely obsolete (based on your accurate example) and thus have been rendered meaningless.

Posted by: zsberenyi | October 22, 2009 at 05:26 PM
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They are NOT obsolete. The simple minding thinking that 130 RBI guy is dramatically better than a 100 RBI might be obsolete but don't throw the "baby out with the bath water". Instead, use common sense when relating to stats.

Bobby Abreu hit 15 hrs and drove in 103 RBI. Adrian Gonzalez hit 40 hrs and drove in 99 RBI. Does Abreu's 103 RBI make him a better player than Agonz? Of course not. Does that discredit or take away from Abreu's accomplishment? It shouldn't. Driving in 100 RBI is a good bench mark for a hitter's year. Abreu did a good ob of driving in the runners ahead of him. Agonz simply didn't have the table setters that Abreu had. So RBI shouldn't take away from a players accomplishments but it shouldn't be used as the "meat" of a apples to apples comparison.

"Epstein considers reliever Daniel Bard a "work in progress," and implies thrusting him into the closer role in 2010 wouldn't be beneficial long-term for Bard."

Which does not mean that they won't trade Papelbon, and re-sign Wagner as the closer and Saito as the just-in-case guy..

"Bobby Abreu hit 15 hrs and drove in 103 RBI. Adrian Gonzalez hit 40 hrs and drove in 99 RBI. Does Abreu's 103 RBI make him a better player than Agonz? Of course not. Does that discredit or take away from Abreu's accomplishment? It shouldn't. Driving in 100 RBI is a good bench mark for a hitter's year. Abreu did a good ob of driving in the runners ahead of him. Agonz simply didn't have the table setters that Abreu had. So RBI shouldn't take away from a players accomplishments but it shouldn't be used as the "meat" of a apples to apples comparison. "

Bobby Abreu has zero control over the hitters in front of him getting on base. If you want to value players based on things they do not control, by all means, go ahead. It's the same as looking at Win-Loss record for pitchers. It's 100% useless.

"Bobby Abreu hit 15 hrs and drove in 103 RBI. Adrian Gonzalez hit 40 hrs and drove in 99 RBI. Does Abreu's 103 RBI make him a better player than Agonz? Of course not."

Look guys, Frew hit around *7th* in the linup for much of the year and is getting paid to get on base, play defense and try and stay healthy. Everything else is a bonus. As far as the post way up above hammering him for his RBI/power stats because he is the highest paid player on the team @14M? That is laughable, just because the NYY go out and pay whatever it takes, including 10M more a season for Rodriquez that nobody else was interested in is their own fault.

Good point johns. Everything is relative, in this case to the need of a team for a certain player, on a historic timeline for $$, and the ability of a club to absorb payroll. Were Damon or Matsui, with rapidly declining defensive skills, worth $12MM this year? To the Royals or Rays, absolutely not. To the Yankees, yes, especially as they were signed when such contracts were common, as was JD Drew. One must also consider that Boras is the agent for JD, Damon, A-Rod, Teixeira, and now Holliday, which explains much.

IMO, JD has earned every dollar, even by today's standards, and has been a victim of negative media and fans looking for someone to demean (even as they won the WS). Finally, the Sox understood his injury history and accepted that, and fully supported his struggles during his son's illness. He has repaid them in spades.

"If people don't recognize the reason guys like Arod, Bay, Tex, Pujols, Agonz, Howard, etc, usually bat 3-6th then I can't help you. Might point is, don't discount a hitters accomplishment (driving in 100 rbi+) but at the same time don't look at a hitters LACK OF PROLIFIC RBI NUMBERS W/O ALSO CONSIDERING THE HITTERS IN FRONT (WHO GET ON BASE) AND BEHIND HIM (WHO FORCE THE OPPONENT TO OFFER QUALITY PITCHES)."

I understand it's harder for old dudes to accept that RBI are completely meaningless, not just misleading or lacking, but completely and 100% useless (Theo Epstein: "We IGNORE them"), but it's the truth.

"don't discount a hitters accomplishment (driving in 100 rbi+)"

I do discount it. I'm not saying a guy getting 100 RBI is a good or a bad thing. It's nothing. It tells you nothing. It doesn't even earn you money anymore, because just about every front office has woken up and realized it.

Did anyone else notice that JD Drew and Dice-k are both represented by Boras and both joined the Sox in 2007? The redsox weren't paying JD Drew because they thought he was worth that much. They were greasing the wheels with boras so they could land Dice-K. Drew isnt a bad player, and he seems to have a knack for getting hits in big games, but if we needed a Lefty hitting right fielder who can't hit lefties why couldnt we just have kept trot nixon?