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« Heyman On Manny, Felix, Bay, Washburn | Main | Trade Market: First Basemen »
MLB.com's Dick Kaegel takes a look at the Royals' two contract option decisions, which are due ten days after the World Series.
Kaegel believes the Royals will consider Coco Crisp's $500K buyout an easy choice over his $8MM option. However, Kaegel wonders if the Royals will then offer Crisp a new incentive-laden deal. Crisp said in August, "I don't know. It'd be nice to stay for a while. I like it here." The 29-year-old center fielder had rotator cuff surgery on both shoulders this summer. The weak free agent market for center fielders should work in his favor.
Catcher Miguel Olivo has a $3.3MM mutual option; both Kaegel and Royals GM Dayton Moore believe he'll test the free agent market. Catchers are also in short supply this year. While Olivo slugged 23 home runs this year, his OBP was just .292.
Don't forget the Royals' two primary non-tender candidates: first baseman Mike Jacobs and catcher John Buck. Kaegel says the Royals intend to "re-cast" their catching situation, so Buck is probably destined for free agency. It doesn't make sense to tender a contract to Jacobs, who earned $3.25MM this year and hit just .228/.297/.401 in 478 plate appearances. Between Jacobs, Buck, and Olivo, the Royals had 1,096 plate appearances of sub-.300 OBP.
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"...the Royals had 1,096 plate appearances of sub-.300 OBP."
How depressing.
Posted by: bbxxj | October 28, 2009 at 02:06 PM
If the Royals retain Olivo and Jacobs, someone should beat Dayton Moore in the face.
The Royals really need to move Butler to DH, give Ka'aihue the first base job, and add a catcher that can actually get on base.
Not to mention that they should release Guillen and Betancourt, and stop wasting playing time on bad baseball players.
For all of the nice things going on in Kansas City (Greinke, Soria, Butler, Callaspo, consecutive high-quality draft classes), Moore seems content to waste that all on veterans with mediocre track records and zero ability to get on base.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 02:06 PM
Wow... didn't the give up Daniel Cortes to get Jacobs?
Posted by: brocmiller1 | October 28, 2009 at 02:23 PM
*they*
Posted by: brocmiller1 | October 28, 2009 at 02:23 PM
No, Cortes was for Bethancourt.
Posted by: bbxxj | October 28, 2009 at 02:29 PM
"Wow... didn't the give up Daniel Cortes to get Jacobs?"
No, he gave up Nunez to get Jacobs. He gave up Cortes to get Betancourt.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 28, 2009 at 02:30 PM
...that's right. Even worse. Betancourt is the worst regular I've ever seen play the game.
Posted by: brocmiller1 | October 28, 2009 at 02:38 PM
"Between Jacobs, Buck, and Olivo, the Royals had 1,096 plate appearances of sub-.300 OBP."
Yep.
The Royals gave 200+ plate appearances to Jacobs, Buck, Olivo, Bloomquist, Guillen and Betancourt, each of whom posted a sub-.315 OBP, and four of them were below the .300 mark.
And we're talking about a team that just extended the man who built this roster. Mindblowing.
"No, he gave up Nunez to get Jacobs. He gave up Cortes to get Betancourt."
Pretty mindblowing, right?
He gives up two talented power arms in order to land Jacobs and Betancourt, who will cost the team about $13.5M in salary before all is said and done, assuming that Jacobs is non-tendered and Betancourt's 2012 option is declined.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 02:39 PM
Clearly, Dayton Moore has blown my mind on multiple occasions..
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 02:39 PM
Question scribble: where are these catchers who get on base? The best fa catchers will be B. Molina, R. Hernandez, J. Kendall. None of those players are great and they will all cost more. And let's face reality who would choose KC in FA over another team unless vastly overpaid, sad but reality.
The Royals should pick up their half of Olivo's option and see if he declines his.
Posted by: Kinsm | October 28, 2009 at 02:49 PM
Olivo will probably decline his end. As a Royals fan, the whole comments section has depressed me...again.
Posted by: Koby | October 28, 2009 at 02:52 PM
"where are these catchers who get on base?"
Well, you don't just shrug your shoulders and give the everyday job to a guy with a sub-.300 OBP.
How about Gregg Zaun (.345 OBP in 2009), Yorvit Torrealba (.351 OBP, although his BA is unsustainable) and Ramon Hernandez (.336 OBP)?
Maybe you could try to trade for Shoppach, Snyder or Towles?
You try to get creative, you don't just sit on your hands when your roster has a problem.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 02:59 PM
"Maybe you could try to trade for Shoppach, Snyder or Towles?"
I've always liked Shoppach, but I want to see what Brayan Pena can do over a full season, even though his OBP was only .318.
Posted by: Koby | October 28, 2009 at 03:08 PM
"Clearly, Dayton Moore has blown my mind on multiple occasions.."
Yeah, too bad. I like the Royals and I had high hopes for Moore when he came to KC, but I'm disappointed with what he's done.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 28, 2009 at 03:09 PM
Catcher is the least of KC's problems. Zaun is like 40 he isn't going to be starting (plus I think TB will pick up his option), Hernandez coming off knee surgery (declining numbers 4 years in a row), Snyder (coming off back surgery - large contract), Towles, Shoppach, Torrealba....are any of these players really that much better than Olivo at 3.3 mill?
No they aren't (face the facts C is one of the weakest positions in the majors), you can't have all-stars at every position (unless you pay 200 mill).
Posted by: Kinsm | October 28, 2009 at 03:10 PM
"I've always liked Shoppach, but I want to see what Brayan Pena can do over a full season, even though his OBP was only .318."
Yeah, I was going to put Pena's name on the list, but I decided not to because he's already on the Royals.
Then again, he could very well end up as their best option at catcher.
He's mashed in AAA for two straight years, and he posted a pretty good line with KC in 2009 despite posting a good line drive rate and a relatively low BABIP.
I doubt that he can repeat a .170 ISO, but I'd take Pena over retaining Olivo or bringing in Barajas/Molina/Kendall. And obviously, I'd take any of the guys that I listed in the previous comment over the guys I just listed in this paragraph.
20 homers aren't worth nearly as much when they're coupled with a .290 OBP, even from a catcher.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 03:12 PM
Amongst catchers with 350 PA's he was ranked 8th in OPS, god forbid he has 20 fewer walks per year than some other catchers. They could do much worse than Olivo. His numbers in comparison to what else is available warrants a starting job, so why not with KC?
Posted by: Kinsm | October 28, 2009 at 03:18 PM
Let me add one last thing, you have no gurantee that KC can trade for anyone let alone the C's you named. Even if they did, what talent they give up in the trade would more than offset any advantage they get in OBP from their then new starting C'er.
Posted by: Kinsm | October 28, 2009 at 03:23 PM
You really don't understand how bad a .290 OBP is, do you? The Royals need to start looking to potions that can help them in the future, rather than giving 350-400 PAs to a .290 OBP Miguel Olivo.
They'd be much, much better going after a guy like Zaun or giving Pena full playing time, to at least say what he does than waste money on another below average player like Olivo.
Posted by: R y a n | October 28, 2009 at 03:28 PM
You really don't understand how bad most catchers are in the OBP department, do you? Only 14 catchers w/ 350 plate appearances had an OBP over .330, only 8 over .350.
Posted by: Kinsm | October 28, 2009 at 03:34 PM
"Let me add one last thing, you have no gurantee that KC can trade for anyone let alone the C's you named."
How about signing one of the guys that I mentioned? Did you think of that?
"Amongst catchers with 350 PA's he was ranked 8th in OPS, god forbid he has 20 fewer walks per year than some other catchers. They could do much worse than Olivo. His numbers in comparison to what else is available warrants a starting job, so why not with KC?"
OPS is massively flawed, it weighs slugging percentage the same as OBP, which is absolutely ludicrous given how much more important it is to get on base.
I'm sorry, but you just don't give an everyday job to a player that's going to post a .300 OBP unless he has elite defense and plus power, and you just can't argue that Olivo has that to the necessary extent.
Those guys are certainly good enough to play in the majors, but there's a difference between that, and guys who deserve 450-600 PA as the everyday catcher.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 03:35 PM
Even over .300 WOULD BE BETTER! It shouldn't matter if he is a catcher, if you are posting a .290 OBP you don't deserve a starting job. Simple as that.
Posted by: R y a n | October 28, 2009 at 03:37 PM
it's ok to have an offensive liability behind the plate. Joe mauer is the exception, not the standard
Posted by: bigmark14 | October 28, 2009 at 03:37 PM
Not every team can have a C like Mauer, Vmart, Martin, or Posada. That's a simple fact, catching in the majors is very watered down...a select few good ones and a bunch of mediocre ones. KC has much more pressing needs than their C. Like someone else stated they don't even think Olivo would accept his portion of the option (I agree).
Posted by: Kinsm | October 28, 2009 at 03:40 PM
I'm sorry, but you just don't give an everyday job to a player that's going to post a .300 OBP unless he has elite defense and plus power, and you just can't argue that Olivo has that to the necessary extent.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 03:35 PM
Half the teams in the majors wouldn't have an every day catcher then.
Posted by: Kinsm | October 28, 2009 at 03:42 PM
it's ok to have an offensive liability behind the plate. Joe mauer is the exception, not the standard
Posted by: bigmark14 | October 28, 2009 at 03:37 PM
Thankyou, someone I can actually agree with. Good conversation scribble, I'm out of here.
Posted by: Kinsm | October 28, 2009 at 03:45 PM
"Half the teams in the majors wouldn't have an every day catcher then."
There were 25 catchers that posted an OBP above .300 in over 250 at bats in the majors this year, and that excludes guys like Doumit and Saltalamacchia, who had down years offensively.
Now, if Olivo maintains a .241 ISO, then he's okay offensively, but you can't realistically expect that given his HR/FB ratio and the rest of his track record.
A .290 OBP is beyond below-average, it's pretty much unplayable unless you're hitting for some massive power at an up-the-middle position.
Olivo is one of the worst players in baseball at getting on-base, and I just don't see how you can tolerate that unless you have little understanding of how valuable getting on base is.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 04:09 PM
"Olivo is one of the worst players in baseball at getting on-base, and I just don't see how you can tolerate that unless you have little understanding of how valuable getting on base is."
Olivo to the Reds? We know how much Dusty Baker loves OBP.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 28, 2009 at 04:15 PM
Pena should be our catcher in 2010 hands down. Aside from a talent standpoint (which I believe is a wash at worst) he is younger and cheaper. We don't need an expensive stop-gap because it's not a pressing need. awe don't see ourselves contending in 2010 so lets start a good habit of trying or farmhands out that have proven capable at the AAA level. We save 6 mil and assuming we offer olivo arbitration and he declines, we get a supplemental draftpick too. Makes it much less painful to release guillen too.
Posted by: bigmark14 | October 28, 2009 at 04:17 PM
it's ok to have an offensive liability behind the plate. Joe mauer is the exception, not the standard
Posted by: bigmark14 | October 28, 2009 at 03:37 PM
Agreed, however Olivo sucks behind the plate defensively as well. Have you seen how many balls get by him? I'm not sure there is a better option, but I'd rather run out Pena and that young guy we just got from Texas. I think his name is Pina. While not an offensive player, he catches a good game.
Posted by: revive85 | October 28, 2009 at 04:23 PM
For people who love to spout saber numbers you do realize fangraphs valued Olivo at 10 mill this season even with "an ungodly" OBP.
Posted by: Kinsm | October 28, 2009 at 04:47 PM
"For people who love to spout saber numbers you do realize fangraphs valued Olivo at 10 mill this season even with "an ungodly" OBP."
First off, FanGraphs assumes that Olivo is league-average at catcher, when most reports I've heard have him slightly-below average.
Secondly, I said that the only way that Olivo could get away with that kind of OBP is if he's hitting for monster power at an up-the-middle position.
In 2009, Olivo showed that kind of massive power, posted a .241 ISO, so while his OBP was seriously lacking, he still posted a .334 wOBA.
The problem is that Olivo's highly unlikely to maintain that power, his HR/FB ratio of 21.7% is out of line with his track record, and his 7.5% IFFB is absolutely unsustainable, that's a complete fluke.
If Olivo repeated his 2009 performance, then yeah, he's a decent enough catcher. But he's never hit that well before and he's far past his Age-27 season (generally the physical prime of hitters), so realistically you can't expect him to continue to be what he was in 2009.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 04:55 PM
Perhaps I should just have a conversation with my wall. The fact is fangraphs also valued him at approximately 4 mill per the 3 seasons prior...to declare he isn't worth 3.3 mill for 1 year is bogus.
You can't value a C the same as another position. Secondly, not every team can have (especially one with a recent bad track record) nor wooh catchers like Mauer, Posada, VMart, etc.
Posted by: Kinsm | October 28, 2009 at 05:44 PM
I think that Olivo will try to get more on the open market anyways, because of his 23 home runs.
And yeah, he might be worth $3.3M, but why wouldn't they just pay Brayan Pena $400K to perform at a higher level?
And while the FanGraphs valuation system has numerous flaws on its own, it's especially flawed when judging catchers, because it assumes that all catchers play the same quality of defense, and it essentially just gives Olivo value for making it onto the playing field.
In 2007, when Olivo was a joke at the plate, posting a .262 OBP and a .284 wOBA, he was still valued at $3.2M by FanGraphs, merely because he was a league-average defender at catcher that played in 122 games.
I can't imagine after this entire argument that you believe that I don't yet understand that the offensive expectations for catchers is substantially lower than that of other positions. Obviously, catchers will hit less than first basemen, because defense is more important there.
But when it comes down to it, just because a player is a catcher doesn't mean that he can be a massive liability at the plate and still deserve hundreds of at bats, simply because he's a catcher, especially when you haven't onced discussed whether or not Olivo is a plus behind the plate, which nobody regards him as.
If you'd prefer to talk to a wall, be my guest, at least the wall would never argue back..
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 05:53 PM
"Wow... didn't the give up Daniel Cortes to get Jacobs?"
No, he gave up Nunez to get Jacobs. He gave up Cortes to get Betancourt
------------------------
He gave up Nunez to Jacobs, and Ramirez to get Crisp, so then he had to give up KC's #2 to sign Cruz, and $9M to get Farnsworth, because he needed RPs.
So he basically traded Ramirez, Nunez, a #2, and maybe $17M for two guys that will non-tendered, an RP you couldn't give away, and Cruz.
I really thought he would be a good GM for you, but I'm baffled by his game plan.
Posted by: Joey B | October 28, 2009 at 10:07 PM