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Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C - Yadier Molina - $4.25MM
C - Matt Pagnozzi - $400K
1B - Albert Pujols - $16MM
2B - Skip Schumaker - $430K+
SS - Brendan Ryan - $405K
3B - David Freese - $400K
IF - Julio Lugo - $400K
IF - Tyler Greene - $400K
IF/OF - Joe Thurston - $475K
LF -
CF - Colby Rasmus - $400K
RF - Ryan Ludwick - $3.7MM+
OF - Allen Craig - $400K

SP - Chris Carpenter - $14.5MM
SP - Adam Wainwright - $4.65MM
SP - Kyle Lohse - $8.875MM
SP - Jaime Garcia - $400K
SP - Mitchell Boggs - $400K

RP - Ryan Franklin - $3.25MM
RP - Trever Miller - $2MM
RP - Dennys Reyes - $2MM
RP - Kyle McClellan - $410K
RP - Josh Kinney - $405K
RP - Jason Motte - $400K
RP - Blake Hawksworth - $400K

That comes to about $65MM before arbitration raises to Ludwick and Schumaker.  So we'll put the Cardinals around $70MM committed.  The Cardinals entered the season at $88.5MM, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.  GM John Mozeliak could have close to $20MM to spend this winter.

Clearly the Cardinals' offseason hinges on Matt Holliday.  If Holliday is signed even to a backloaded contract, it seems that Mozeliak won't be able to do much with the third base and rotation needs.  Holliday figures to cost $16-20MM annually for at least five years.  Re-signing John Smoltz might allow for the best of both worlds - a chance at 150 innings of above-average pitching without breaking the bank.  Presumably Holliday and Smoltz could both be squeezed in.

Should Holliday sign elsewhere or the Cardinals decide to move on, there are plenty of free agents to suit their needs.  The Cards can move on to the next best thing in Jason Bay, and probably end up with more spending money for other players.  It will be difficult to entirely avoid Scott Boras this winter, because Johnny Damon and Xavier Nady might become options as Mozeliak moves down the left fielder list.

Also, Boras client Adrian Beltre is an intriguing third base option if the Cardinals prefer not to splurge on Chone FigginsMark DeRosa and Miguel Tejada are a bit older but would be solid one-year choices.  Dan Uggla, Kevin KouzmanoffJosh Willingham, and David DeJesus could be trade considerations at third and left.

If Holliday departs, the Cardinals can up the ante on the rotation and take a look at Randy Wolf or Joel Pineiro.  Mozeliak recently told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the club may consider a rotation upgrade if they don't ink Holliday, but signing John Lackey is unlikely.

Which route do you prefer for the Cardinals this winter - sign Holliday and tinker elsewhere, or spread the money around to three or more solid veterans?


Comments

i say if Holliday isn't resigned, try and sign Figgins and try and trade for Uggla. key word here is TRY

I think Figgins would probably be the better investment as he'd leave you free money to invest elsewhere like in pitching and provide Pujols a better chance of baserunners ahead of him. If they're unable to get a LF, they could always shift Figgins there and play Freese everyday.

Or they can maybe take a low-cost gamble on someone like Brian Giles and hope that he can revitalize that OBP.

Five words.

Chone Figginns and Adam Dunn.

That's somewhere in the region of $22,000,000 to revitalize your lineup. Big power hitting in the 4 spot and high OBP guy in the 1 or 2 spot to get on in front of Albert. Alternately, take Dunn's outrageous OBP and bat him 3rd with Albert batting cleanup.

With 2009's figures, that's a 1-4 of -

1. Schumaker - .364 OBP.
2. Figgins - .395 OBP
3. Dunn - .398 OBP
4. Pujols - .443 OBP

$70,000,000 + $22,000,000 = $92,000,000. One can make the argument that if ownership wants to really compete, with a $100,000,000 payroll there would be the potential to add Smoltz and possibly a buy low candidate like Ben Sheets.

They cant afford Holliday, and imo there are better options. I like the Jason Bay or even Xavier nady idea. Figgins is a good idea as well. I just dont think Holliday is worth 20 per over 5 years, unless your a Steinbrener.

And are the cards going to cut ties with Ankiel?

helllllllllllllllll no on Adam Dunn. His defense is the WORST in the NL and maybe the major leagues. Absolutely NOT. Give a rookie a shot and spend cash on the rotation and a reliever. period.

Give Holliday a good but not exorbitant offer, he'll probably go for the money elsewhere rather than a good deal hitting with Pujols for the next 5 years and that'll be that. No big loss.

Then get a good 9-10m pitcher, a 3-4m reliever and figure out what the team needs at the deadline instead of in the winter.

Most of the beat writers in town believe that the Cardinals will revert back to the $100 million payroll from 2008 after the successful season (Profit wise), so the free money may be closer to $30 million.

Regardless I say go one of three ways...

1.Holliday, DeRosa, and Smoltz

2. Bay, Beltre, and Sheets

3. Dunn, Uggla/Figgins, and Bedard

Wow Pujols is way under paid, Holliday is going to make more next season

pcain, "cant" is not the correct term, "won't" is. The FO will not surpass much beyond $100 mil and therefore Holliday will end up on one of the coasts.

I am not sure why so many people think we can land Figgins. A) The angels most likely will be bringing him back (as it appears they are letting Lackey and Vlad walk) and B) He is going to command a very large contract. He is getting older and this team needs power. If the club is going to spend double digits per year on a player, it is going to be someone who can hit the ball out of the park.

I personally would like to see them pursue Nady and perhaps Wolf, if Holliday falls through. We also need to realize that a power arm in the bullpen is almost as big of a need than anything else. Motte is not proven and Franklin has put a scare into most of us.

I would like the idea of Dunn, but he strikes out way to much and he is a bad fielder. Oh yeah, Figgins would lead off and Pujols would still bat third

This years free agent class is not inspiring at all. Holliday is good but pricey, and Figgins...well, I'm always wary when a player has his big year in a contract year.

Re-sign Smoltz, add a bullpen arm (that pen is just waiting for regression to happen), sign Adrian Beltre, and sign Colby Rasmus to a long-term deal now while the prices are still bargain basement. (Longoria's contract was 6/$17.5 mil with crazy club option years, even if the Cards got Rasmus for 6/$25 mil w/o the option years it would be a steal).

I haven't thought much about the Cards, but they're in a tough spot aren't they. If they can't raise payroll (and by quite a lot) they're going to be worse than the team that they put on the field last year. But they can't go into a rebuilding phase, the NL central is weak, what with the Pirates and the Astros not being competitive, and with Albert not getting any younger they have to look to win now.

Maybe Bay, Feliz, and one of the Smoltz/Penny/Sheets/Bedard/Harden crowd? Will that be enough to compeat with what the Dodgers and Phils have and what the Mets and Cubs will buy?

I actually like that Dunn idea; and if you want to get technical about bad defense, Chris Duncan was the epitome of it.

Whatever the scenario though, I think it's really important to try and keep DeRosa. He's just too versatile, and way too important in a clubhouse. You saw what happened with the (s)C(r)ubs when they let him go.

I'd say ideally, take the 'discount' with Smoltz. Let Holliday go - I think that's pretty much inevitable, try and grab Bay, and see what Beltre's got.

Finally!! I've been waiting for this one. I thought the Cardinals weren't paying Lugo's contract? I thought that was Boston...
Doubtful some of the names (Joe Thurston) make the team out of spring training, but we'll see. There are a handful of other players who might get a shot.
An elite player commanding the salary of 3 good players will probably always get passed over by the Cardinals. I like the idea of Smoltz returning, picking up another buy-low starter as well. Nady and Byrd would be interesting options as solid left fielders. I'm all for giving Freese a shot, but DeRosa should be contacted as well. Unfortunately he may outprice the Cards' utility for his services.

Nady, Smoltz, Bedard, DeRosa (~$25 million?) would be a grand victory for Mo.

I'm not a Cardinal fan, but what about the idea of trading for Uggla then moving Skip to LF. Then sign Figgins or Beltre and you still have some money left over to play with the rotation or sign a buy low outfielder like Giles or Nady.

And if you wanted to bring Freese into the picture later in the season, you could shift Figgins to left and put Skip on the bench.

This lineup doesn't look bad (though any lineup with the words Albert Pujols in it doesn't look bad):

3B Figgins
CF Rasmus
1B Pujols
2B Uggla
RF Ludwick
C Molina
LF Schumaker
P Pitcher
SS Ludo/Ryan

Add Wolf and Smoltz/Sheets to that already beastly rotation and you've got a contender.

So no more Rick Ankiel in STL

With all that money, Holliday could spend some of it learning to catch routine fly balls in the playoffs instead of letting them land into his nugget pouch.

OH SNAP!

With all that money, Holliday could spend some of it learning to catch routine fly balls in the playoffs instead of letting them land into his nugget pouch.

OH SNAP!

Posted by: B Dubz | November 16, 2009 at 04:00 PM

LOL i was waiting for that.

Another dream trade, along with the one that acquires Adam Dunn, would be to trade for Granderson and bat him infront of Albert Pujols... Ahh. Dream on.

I hope they're able to retain Holliday, because I personally would rather see the Cardinals invest in a top-tier guy rather than spend money on a bunch of players that are slightly above replacement level to fill gaps. It's not hard to find a 3B who can OPS .750 but it is hard to find a player at ANY position that can OPS .950.

I'm going to assume Boras will get Bay to sign first, so if Holliday signs elsewhere, our next options would be Damon or Nady, and if Damon could be had at even a reasonable cost, I'd love to see him signed for the #2 spot for his high OBP. Then try to sign Smoltz (something I'm a fan of either way), and perhaps invest the rest in the bullpen and perhaps Adrian Beltre.

Having said all that, knowing the way the Cardinals have operated in the past, they'll make a real run at Matt Holliday and if that fails, it'll probably turn into bargain shopping. Of course, having said that, most of the history I'm remembering is from the Jocketty era, so it might be unfair to Moz.

Of course I'd love to have Holliday back. But if he wants to make bank -- and leave a town that loves its players -- he'll go elsewhere. So be it.

I know the Rockies said they're "listening" to offers for Brad Hawpe, but I'd love to see another lefty in the Cards' lineup. He's not a high OBP guy, but in Busch he could easily hit 30 doubles and 25 homers. And let's not forget the Pujols effect: He makes you play better, whether or nor it's because he's a pseudo-coach or because guys compete in the dugout.

Pujols would get meatballs to hit if Dunn was behind him, but I can't stand to watch a guy strike out 170 times. Figgins is tempting because of his speed and defense, but as someone mentioned, this was his contract year.

More rumors I like concern Curtis Granderson. I'd love two lefties in front of Albert, especially one with speed. I doubt the Cards are looking at Granderson, but I'd like them to.

Moving Skip to LF is not going to happen. He made progress defensively throughout the season and his offensive abilities meet the expectations of a quality second basemen. I would also be very surprised if Freese is not starting opening day. Look at it this way...it is a way for the FO to fill a spot with another 400K player without taking heat for it, people want to see what he's got!

The Cardinals should not and are not concerned with moving people to different positions...sign a LF, a SP and a fire baller for the pen and the Central will be theirs pending injuries.

DeRosa is too perfect not to bring back. La Russa can mix him in all over the field and he provides you insurance if Freese does not pan out or if Skip or one of the outfielders goes down with an injury. Also fits well in the 6-hole.

Gary, I agree they should lock up Rasmus. But don't expect it this offseason , as they still would like to see him develop more before inking him to a deal (he is not quite where Longoria was, when he signed his deal).

There are alot of ways the Cards can go and it will definitely on hinge on Holliday. With my calculations I had the Cards having $20-24M staying or going slightly above last years opening day payroll of ~$88M.

Here is my wish list (per se):

1) Sign Holliday for an avg of $17M over 6yrs (assuming this gets the job done - regardless it will be a very competitive offer as I doubt anyone goes over $19M a year)

2) If Holliday signs you have somewhere between $3-8M left. Sign Justin Duchscherer to an incentive laden contract to be your #3/#4 - $2M guaranteed with incentives based on starts and innings. He has the stuff to be a #2 and has proved it. Obviously we would need to validate his health before doing this.

3) Sign a later inning bullpen veteran (would Smoltz come back in this role?) - If not then guys like Dotel, Hawkins and Putz would be good options if the price and yrs were right.

4) Resign LaRue - For $1M you get a very very good defensive backup C that actually improved his hitting last year. I am not sold on Pagnozzi as a hitter...needs more seasoning.

That would complete our spending. Freese gets the opportunity to play 3B everyday and if he faulters then Lugo and T. Greene can platoon with him. Craig is our power bat off the bench and spells our corner OF's and Pujols at 1B from time to time. I let Garcia/Boggs/Hawksworth (outside shot)/Ottavino battle it out for the #5 rotation spot.

Not a big Cardinals fan (or a fan at all to be honest), but moving Schumaker to left and signing a Polanco/Hudson would be a good move if they lose out on Holliday. They can sign a Beltre to fill out third and have a lineup like this:

Schumaker LF
Hudson/Polanco 2B
Pujols 1B
Beltre 3B
Ludwick RF
Rasmus CF
Molina C
Ryan SS

Signing Hudson/Polanco and Beltre would probably add up less then what Holliday would make in a year alone. I love the idea of Duchscherer on the Cards. It's too smart of a move NOT to do.

I am a huge fan of the Dunn idea. And batting him in front of Pujols instead of behind him. Let Freese play 3rd. Sign Wolf and put Craig on the bench. Pick up one of the many late inning power arms out there and in the NL central they are in very good position.

pcain -- ankiel

if holliday (or bay) is signed, ankiel is likely gone. starters will be holliday, rasmus, ludwick. ank will probably look for more playing time and cards wont want to pay a few million for a back up.

if holliday (or bay) is not signed, odds of ankiel returning go up dramatically.

I just don't see how the Cardinals only have $20M to spend. This is one of the highest grossing franchises as far as total revenues and yet we're being squeezed like the Florida Marlins? We can't afford a Yankee/Met/Red Sox type of payroll but this team can afford $100M/year no question.

We should be able to afford Holliday, Smoltz, and DeRo without question. They should all be available for a total of $30M/year. If you don't like DeRo we can find another option at 3B. Some outsiders might think Cardinal fans expect too much from their front office but 3.3M-3.4M fans year in and year out speaks for itself. The city deserves a product equal to the loyalty of the fans. Don't tell me Houston can afford a $100M payroll but the Cardinals can't.

Schu won't be in Left except as a defensive replacement late in games (if necessary). He is a defensively competent second basemen and I expect with seasoning he will do even better. What's more is that he hits well for a second basemen, but poorly for a corner outfielder. The Cardinals need pop.

pcain -- ankiel

if holliday (or bay) is signed, ankiel is likely gone. starters will be holliday, rasmus, ludwick. ank will probably look for more playing time and cards wont want to pay a few million for a back up.

if holliday (or bay) is not signed, odds of ankiel returning go up dramatically.

Posted by: dmb60614 | November 16, 2009 at 04:31 PM


I understand and i dont think the cards will sign Holliday or Bay for that matter either. Ankiel is a cheap and dependable option and he has some pop.

Wow, keep up Dierkes. The Cardinals can, and will, take their payroll up to $110 million for the right player(s). They've had the payroll that high before and they have the ability to increase to that again. That means Johnny Mo can jack payroll as much as $45 million. They have the dough to sign Holliday--if they choose to--and give Pujols a raise.

Smoltz is all about the money. I doubt he takes less then the $5.5 mil guarantee he got this year (plus incentives.) if he comes cheap, and will work out of the pen, I can see the Braves signing him to close...

I think Holliday would be nuts to leave St.Louis for either of the New York teams or Boston. How many fans would applaud you after making a crucial error that led to your team to a 0-2 hole in the playoff's. If he does not resign the Cards should try to get Jason Bay if that falls through. Get Uggla make him a third basemen keep Schumaker at second get Johny Damon to play left and get Pinero or Bedard, and if possiable get Smoltz to sure up the bullpen in the late innings.

" Get Uggla make him a third basemen"

Um, he's not a great second basemen (not bad, but not great) and you want to move him to 3B, one of the toughest positions in baseball, which hasn't played in many years. I'm not sure that's a great idea. Especially when Beltre and Figgins are on the market.

I think it's a mistake to automatically write off bringing back Glaus. He could provide some punch from that 3rd base spot and he probably won't cost much, especialy with an incentive laden deal. I really don't think we need any pitching. Our Red Birds just won the PCL Championship. I'm sure there's a pitcher (Garcia at least) who's ready to take the next step.

Most of the beat writers in town believe that the Cardinals will revert back to the $100 million payroll from 2008 after the successful season (Profit wise), so the free money may be closer to $30 million.

Regardless I say go one of three ways...

1.Holliday, DeRosa, and Smoltz

2. Bay, Beltre, and Sheets

3. Dunn, Uggla/Figgins, and Bedard

Posted by: AlbertPujols23 | November 16, 2009 at 03:41 PM


I think you missed this
"The Cardinals have seen a revenue loss of "several million dollars" this season, despite fantastic attendance numbers. DeWitt called the loss "a meaningful number," but said the club will still try to maintain a high payroll in future seasons."
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/cardinals-rumors-smoltz-holliday-dero-pujols.html

Holliday will depart so forget about him
We need to get Pinero back he did good and hes definetly better than Lohse
Then we should get Sheets or Smoltz,, I lean towards Sheets hes younger and prolly will be cheaper
Then we need to get figgins hes fast,versatile,good defense,high average and ops
then get Nady he will be cheap since coming off sugery and he was pretty good
then get a lefty for the bullpen

Garret Atkins for Schumaker and so on
Sign a Closer and try get Miguel Cabrera/Willis from the Tigers.

Starting Linuep
2B-Lugo
CF-Rasmus
3B-Atkins
1B-Albert
RF-Cabrera
LF-Ludwick
c-Molina
P
SS-Ryan
Bench
LaRue,Freese,Greene and so on
SP
Carpenter,Wainwright,Willis,Lohse and 2 others

Cabrera in RF? you serious?

Cabrera in RF? you serious?

Posted by: EClayton08 | November 16, 2009 at 07:10 PM
Agreed we are talking about a guy who shows up every year overweight. was traded to detroit showed up overweight and was moved to first, and showed up the next season overweight again there is no way he can play outfield

I cant see the cards signing Figgins, Beltre or anyone else who might want a 3+ year deal, they like freese to much

Garret Atkins for Schumaker and so on
Sign a Closer and try get Miguel Cabrera/Willis from the Tigers.

Starting Linuep
2B-Lugo
CF-Rasmus
3B-Atkins
1B-Albert
RF-Cabrera
LF-Ludwick
c-Molina
P
SS-Ryan
Bench
LaRue,Freese,Greene and so on
SP
Carpenter,Wainwright,Willis,Lohse and 2 others

Posted by: Matt Galvin | November 16, 2009 at 06:56 PM
-----------

How would the Cards acquire Cabrera? They would have to take on almost half of his contract and basically part with their entire farm system. Not really a deal that would work out for both sides.

And even if they did get him, where would he play? He's an average 1B at best, and I think we all know how his play at 3B was. He did play LF though, but that doesn't mean he can play RF too.

And we don't need any part of Willis. I've finally decided that it's time to hop of the D-Train.

With all of this money coming off the books, the Cards can really make a splash this off season. Get to it, Mozeliak. But stay away from Aroldis Chapman. I beg of you.

Why are people putting schumaker in left?? They are by going to waste all the training he's done. The only spots that are open is left field and third base.

I would never stop laughing if the Cards got Dunn.

How would the Cards acquire Cabrera? They would have to take on almost half of his contract and basically part with their entire farm system. Not really a deal that would work out for both sides.

And even if they did get him, where would he play? He's an average 1B at best, and I think we all know how his play at 3B was. He did play LF though, but that doesn't mean he can play RF too.

Posted by: BKuGotIt | November 16, 2009 at 09:33 PM


he also looked like this when he played LF http://cache4.asset-cache.net/xc/81372040.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF1934B869679A269F9CCA0E37DB209A518AC26FD13ED7B73D4BC

Whats up with everybody wanting to get rid of Schumaker??? he has batted at or over .300 the last two years in the LEAD-OFF spot. whats not to like about the guy? especially for the money he is owed (figuring under 1M) there is basically nothing but an upside to him..... Just my opinion though

Freese will play 3rd.

Good chance DeRosa will get resigned to fill in if Freese or another player struggles.

The outfield spot is the only position up in the air.

If Mo doesn't sign Holliday he will probably sign a cheaper outfielder with power like Xavier Nady.

I'd like him to sign Smoltz again if he can get a bargain there.

Worst case scenario still looks pretty decent to me:

2b Schumaker
SS Ryan
1b Pujols
Rf Ludwick
3b Freese
Cf Rasmus
C Molina
Lf Mather/Craig/D. Jones

Bring up J. Garcia and keep Hawksworth going and we'll have a pretty nice pitching staff.

Just a little on Ankiel. He's gone. No matter what the situation is, he won't be a Cardinal in 2010, nor should he be.

And I like the idea of getting a DeJesus or a Willingham.

personally, i was thrilled when the cards made the trade to pick up holliday. and i would be even more thrilled if they signed him. but its not set in stone, and i have been thinking about other options. chone figgins being the predominant one. his versatility in the field, not to mention a good obp (381 averaged through the last 3 years) combined with plus speed seems to make him a solid choice for a leadoff spot, with the skippy batting behind him. sign the x-factor to play left (again, this is all assuming we can't sign holliday) and then offer ben sheets an incentive laden deal that could be a good sized payoff. i'm telling you, when hes healthy, there are very, very few pitchers who can dominate the way sheets can (in the nl, carp, waino, lincecum, and haren. and thats it) not to mention that he is a workhorse and may want some revenge on the brewers.

i think the three signings could be done for the same money holliday is asking (as long as sheets contract is incentive laden) and if there is a little extra money, resign pineiro.

think about a rotation that consists of carp, waino, sheets, lohse (assuming he can regain his 08 form) and pineiro. missing one of pineiro or sheets, we still have young talent to fill the gap (mainly hawksworth or garcia)

just food for thought before i go to class...

on my list of nl pitchers, i forgot brandon webb, but we all knew that right?

and i apologize for my refusal to use the shift button. this isn't a formal document, and i just frankly don't care

DeRosa will not be signed as an insurance player in case others are injured or don't play well. He is too good, and he will be too expensive. He may (and probably will) be signed by the Cardinals or another team as a utility player, but definitely not as insurance or as a backup. I like DeRosa, but I like the idea of Freese as well.

As for Figgins or Beltre, I like both of these players as well. I'd like to know if anyone has heard anything on their asking price? It would definitely need to fit into the Cardinals plan. I'd hate to overspend on one of these guys with Freese coming up and the possibility of DeRosa coming back instead of signing one of these or some other free agent.

Any Redbird fans think Mike Parisi could give them a run for the 5th rotation spot? He looked good in the AFL looks to be back 100% from TJS with a cutter added to the arsenal.

The Cards have 2 open rotation spots, with one more than likely to be filled in-house. Another spot (long relief/spot starter) will also need to be filled. There is a solid chance for many young arms to enter spring training and impress. The bullpen has few shoo-ins outside of the lefties and Franklin. Motte, Hawksworth, etc. will still have to pitch their way onto the roster.

La Russa encourages, even forces, competition in Spring Training (think Royce Ring). There are probably as many as 15 spots on the opening day roster that are still up for grabs, so to speak, to some extent.

Parisi has talent. We saw this last time he came up. He'll likely get his shot, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up a Memphis - St. Louis swingman next year, a la 2009 Boggs/Todd.

please get sheets

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