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Olney On Wagner, DeRosa, Betancourt, Wolf

The free agent rankings are out, so ESPN.com's Buster Olney breaks down the winners and losers. Here are the details from his latest blog post:

  • Billy Wagner is a Type A free agent, so teams will have to surrender a draft pick to sign him if the Red Sox offer arbitration, as expected. This hurts Wagner's value, since he's coming back from Tommy John surgery and teams will hesitate to give up a top pick for an injury risk.
  • Olney wouldn't be surprised to see Mark DeRosa field two and three year offers. The versatile 34-year-old is a Type B free agent, so teams won't have to give up a top pick to sign him.
  • Rafael Betancourt, a Type A free agent, has less leverage with the Rockies than he would have had as a Type B free agent, because few teams would be willing to surrender a top pick to sign the reliever. 
  • Randy Wolf's status as a Type A free agent could chase away some suitors.
  • Other GMs believe the Astros should offer Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins arbitration.
  • If the Giants offer Bengie Molina arbitration, the market for him would diminish.


Comments

I don't think Wagner would be well advised to turn down arbitration if offered. Not many teams are going to give up a 1st round pick for an aging reliever only just coming back from Tommy John. Would the Redsox want to pay as much as he could get in arbitration to only set up though?

check this, but if i remember correctly, one of the deals in having Wagner come to Boston, was only if Boston agreed NOT to offer him arbitration, which they did agree to do.
So in the end, it doesn't hurt his value.

If I am not mistaken, part of the reason Wagner accepted the deal to the Red Sox in the first place was because they promised him they would not offer him arbitration at the end of the year. Am I wrong on that?

I too thought Wagner would only accept if Boston agreed not to offer him arbitration.

"Am I wrong on that?"

He did request that. He said he would waive his no trade for the deal if they agree to
a) void option
b) decline arbitration

he settled for only one of the two - the option voided

If I remember right at first he didn't accept the trade because of that,but in the end I believe they only agreed to not pick up his team option but could still offer arbitration.

Nope, his agent was pushing for that. In the end, th Sox agreed not to pick up his option but they didn't agree not to offer arbitration.

The Sox would be happy to pay him what he would get through arbitration to set up- he was lights out when he pitched in 2009.

It is a given though, that Wagner would not accept arbitration, I think at this point, he is more determined to get to 200 saves than to get money, so he'll probably be willing to sign pretty cheap with a team willing to give up a draft pick.

Win-win for the Red Sox really. They either get a couple of picks, or keep a hard throwing lefty for the BP who can occasionally close games.

From an august 25th post on here about the Wagner trade

Olney says the Red Sox have agreed not to pick up Wagner's 2010 option, but they can still offer him arbitration (and collect compensation picks if he signs elsewhere).

"Did I read somewhere that theMets do not have to surrender the pick this year if they sign a type A free agent? If so, leg up on signing Randy Wolf?"

Uh, what makes you think the Mets wouldn't have to surrender a draft pick to sign a Type A free agent?

"Did I read somewhere that theMets do not have to surrender the pick this year if they sign a type A free agent? If so, leg up on signing Randy Wolf?"

Uh, what makes you think the Mets wouldn't have to surrender a draft pick to sign a Type A free agent?

Posted by: vtadave | November 10, 2009 at 11:21 AM
___________________________

If the team picking up the free agent has one of the top 15 picks in round 1 of the subsequent amateur draft, then NO that team does not forfeit their first round draft pick. Instead, they would forfeit their SECOND round pick.

Good news for the Dodgers re: Wolf.

Bernard is correct. The Mets would surrender a second round pick for Wolf, unless they also signed a higher ranked type A free agent, in which case they would surrender their third round pick for Wolf. Their first round pick is theirs no matter what.

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