Elias Rankings Update

After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics.  Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through September 18th, 2010.  Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.


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24 Comments on "Elias Rankings Update"


Dave_Gershman
4 years 10 months ago

I noticed that all 4 impending free agent relievers on the Twins rank type A or B…I really think the Twins off-season priority #1 or #2 needs to be to re-sign 3 if not all 4. They will get a 1st round and second round pick if Guerrier declines but I’m thinking that they should take care of the other 3 first, or wait until teams are shying away because of his status and then re-sign him for cheap a la Juan Cruz.

Although offering Guerrier arbitration (all 4 should be offered arbitration) is a win win in my opinion.

twins06
4 years 10 months ago

offering fuentes arbitration would be extreamly dumb. He make 9 mil this year and would make around that next year to be a lefty specialist. There is no way if he is smart he turns down arbitration if offered to him. We will offer arb to Thome who just turned type B, Pavano type A, Maybe Crain Type B very good chance he turns it down, maybe gurrier, and then Rauch who is type B. We cant offer hudson arb due to a clause in his contract, And Kubel has a cheap team option that will be picked up. I see us offering arb to 4 people. Rauch, Crain, Pavano and Thome.

bballstud16
4 years 10 months ago

Can someone help me out. I don’t exactly know how this works, but the Rays have a ton of free agents that register status A or B. I don’t exactly know how offering arbitration works, and why a player would want to turn it down opposed to accept it, but can you give me a guess on which players the Rays will get picks for.
Carl Crawford (A) Rafael Soriano (A) Brad Hawpe (B) Carlos Pena (B) Dan Wheeler (A) Grant Balfour (A) Joaquin Benoit (B) Randy Choate (B)

The Rays will probably get the picks for Crawford and Soriano, but what about the rest? Can they really get two picks for a guy like Wheeler?

Dave_Gershman
4 years 10 months ago

It does work like that and is it fair for a guy like Wheeler, Kiko Calero, Joe Beimel, or Juan Cruz? Probably not. But a team will have to give up a pick and the Rays will get two picks. Thats why Selig wants to fix the draft, so relievers wont get hurt by type A status. Players such as Carl Crawford want to explore the market which is why many free agents turn down arbitration. But yes, say the Rays lose all 8 players who you wrote down, they will get 12 picks. Although most of the teams interested in Balfour and Wheeler will be the 16 worst teams in Baseball this season, that way all of their first round picks are protected.

JMet
4 years 10 months ago

The question is will the Rays offer Balfour or Wheeler arbitration and risk holding a contract that they don’t have the budget for like the Braves did last year with Soriano.

shockey12
4 years 10 months ago

How is Jason Frasor a type A and Scott Downs not?

Dave_Gershman
4 years 10 months ago

Downs is type A. It says that under AL RP.

j6takish
4 years 10 months ago

Every time this is posted it reminds me of how brutal the middle infield/catching market is going to be.

deere5800
4 years 10 months ago

So Lyle Overbay, who has been given primo playing time and a middle of the order spot for two years, is ranked lower than Fred Lewis, who has been a fairly terrible platoon/bench player during that same time? I’m far from president of the Overbay fan club but does he actually suck that much?

j6takish
4 years 10 months ago

Overbay has put up pretty miserable numbers for a 1b, where as Fred Lewis has put up pretty miserable numbers at a more “valuable” position.

moonraker45
4 years 10 months ago

exactly… if lyle overbay’s slash line belonged to an outfielder with some speed, not to many people would complain…

deere5800
4 years 10 months ago

I thought the whole point of the groupings (1b, 3b, corner outfield) was balance out the value of positions. That is to say 1b, 3b, and corner outfielders are of roughly the same value. Same with 2b, ss, cf. Nevertheless those ratings are kind of stupid

moonraker45
4 years 10 months ago

crap, frasor is back as an A, which means he’ll most likely accept arb.

johnsilver
4 years 10 months ago

Remember a lot of these people are never offered arbitration period, just because teams know they would accept and they don’t want them back for whatever salary they would be awarded. Balfour is maybe an example of that with his up and down career and being 33YO.

4 years 10 months ago

I think the Jays would certainly prefer to offer arb to Frasor and have him accept if the alternative is just cutting him loose. He’s still a decent reliever with a good track record in the AL East at an affordable salary.

moonraker45
4 years 10 months ago

frasor will be offered arb.. I don’t think at this point the jays would not offer arb to anyone, get the pick or they come back for a year.

johnsilver
4 years 10 months ago

I understand your point. Teams also have to be wary (extremely) about just offering arbitration to every FA they have also just to get a compensation, lest they get stuck with a player with a huge salary instead whom accepts arbitration for probably the same salary, even if they had a poor season. Boston’s case would be Mike Lowel, NYY, there is Nick Johnson, Orlando Hudson seems to always be on the list and he is an “A” once again, Javier Vazquez, Magglio Ordonez. several AL examples of IMO poor examples of players to offer arbitration to and would jump on the chance to accept.

moonraker45
4 years 10 months ago

I agree 150,000% with your post.. I’m just looking at it from a strictly jays pov. The jays are in a rebuilding mode, so they want as many picks as possible, they already turned gonzalez in to escobar, they would like to get some compensation for buck as well. as for frasor and downs, they aren’t bad and not super expensive. Having them accept arb wouldnt be a travesty.

4 years 10 months ago

How is Bautista a type B? shouldnt he be tops on the list?

moonraker45
4 years 10 months ago

It doesn’t just go by this season.

InTheKZone
4 years 10 months ago

Past three seasons if I recall correctly.

Zack23
4 years 10 months ago

Past 2 seasons. So 2010 and 2009

twins06
4 years 10 months ago

Its over two seasons or carlos silva would have been a type B or A when the mariners gave him that huge contract a couple of years back. this help prevent teams from having to give up draft choices for signing a player who was in a contract year and played out of his mind

sherrilltradedooverexperience
4 years 10 months ago

shouldn’t Kuroda be bolded as he will be a free agent?