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By Ben Nicholson-Smith | at
Email a copy of 'Ten Arbitration Cases To Watch' to a friend
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pastlives
you know, i suspect the Jays won’t mind losing Napoli’s case too much
Guest
I think they’ll meet in the middle before before the arb deadline. No point in starting the new relationship on a bad foot.
budman3
Unless he gets flipped.
Lunchbox45
doubtful… listening to AA’s interview this morning on the Jeff Blair show, sounds to me like he is really excited for Napoli because of the flexibility he adds to 1b, Catcher and DH positions.
Sniderlover
That reason right there is probably why he wanted Martin. I know people wanted Manny and all but if Manny could play 1B then he would be on AA’s radar.
I’m not sure if AA’s policy still stands since he didn’t work out a negotiation with him but either way, it won’t really make much of a difference.
Bautista case is pretty interesting though. They are nearly 3 million apart and that does hamper negotiations for a long-term contract and I am very curious if Bautista can continue to hit the way he did (not 50+ HR, but can he get 35-40, or even 40+?). I am hpoing he can get hit something along the lines of .250/.355/.540
Toronto310
AA doesnt negotite 1 year deals once numbers are exchanged, he is open to multi year deals but will go to arb for 1 year deals.
Lunchbox45
given the fact that he didn’t submit the number, he might be willing to work something out with naps.
Guest
It would be silly and irresponsible for AA not to try and negotiate a contract with Napoli.
Two hypothetical questions I have. If AA could have traded VW before Crawford signs, would the Jays have been big players? Would the Jays still sign EE? I say yes and no.
Lunchbox45
I think EE at that salary is still a decent pick up, he also adds insurance at 3 positions (DH, 3B, 1B) in case of any injury.. He also hits lefties pretty well if Lind’s struggles verse them persist
As for being a big player, I’d say no.. Crawford didn’t want to play on turf and doesn’t like to lead off..
I doubt very much that AA would have shedded Vdub’s contract only to take on a 150 mil contract
garylanglais
What about Kelly Johnson? He actually becomes Weeks’s best comparable. Both had big power-hitting numbers for 2B’s last year but have struggled in preceding years. If he wins at arb or settles anywhere close to his number ($6.5/$4.7) he gives Weeks a great comparison with his midpoint being $6.025. Johnson should definitely be on the list.
dc21892
Some serious pop from the 2 Jays catchers. Napoli/JPA are going to run into more than a couple balls that are headed over the fence. I’m very interested to see where Bautista lies in arbitration. Is he primed for a HUGE raise after ONE good season?
Lunchbox45
I’d like to see a 3 year deal get worked out…
I think Jbau going in to this year with FA on the line will cause him to hold the bat a little tight and try to do too much. a 3/30 seems fair, both sides have a little risk involved in the deal. 4th year option worth 15 mil.
Guest
Unless Bautista has stated he won’t negotiate during the season, I’d rather see the Jays wait to see how much he falls back down to earth. The team isn’t going to compete for at least 2 years, if not more, so I don’t see the value in signing him. There are way too many unknowns on the team. Is Snider and JPA for real? Which season reflects Lind and Hill better, 2009 or 2010? How far away are Hech, Lawrie? Are Drebek, Stewart and Zep ready for the next level?
To me, the Jays need to figure out wtf they have with all these high ceiling players before they sign aging long term contracts. (yeah Bats isn’t that old, but a lot can happen in 2 years)
Lunchbox45
While I agree with your second point, the first one of waiting for the season to begin is worrisome.. Remember the start he got off to last year?
The jays have 2 scenarios right now
A) pay him a modest contract and risk him falling back down to a glorified utility player
b) have him achieve another 30+ HR season, and lose him to free agency possibly getting no more then picks for a player who may sign a 70-100 million dollar contract
as far as I see it, given the new financial state of the organization, it would be far more risky to lose a coveted asset for next to nothing, than it would be to pay him to do 10 million to do next to nothing.
Guest
c) do not sign him, if falls back down to a glorified utility, take your type B minimum draft pick, and you are not tied to the contract….or, if he’s on pace for his 30+ HR season, you sell high and trade at the deadline. You get more than your draft picks, and your not tied to a contract when your not competing.
Since_77
I wonder if Brian Cashman will try to swing a trade for Rodriquez? He’s 33 and can be a free agent at the end of the year. The Astros might try to see what they can get for him.
dc21892
He’s a solid pitcher. I would think they’ve at least discussed it with the Astros. I could see the Yankees looking at Ryan Dempster and possibly Scott Kazmir if the Angels are dangling him.
slider32
Wandy might be a good target for the Yanks, he’s a lefty who is projected 4.4 on fangraphs. This seems like a no-brainer if the Astros want to trade him. If they do he could bring them a player like Romine and Noesi, 2 B prospects.
David B
do they mean substance abuse like street drugs or PED’s?
Lunchbox45
street drugs.. believe it or not, josh hamilton was at one point a junkie…
dc21892
Yep. Too bad he was. He’s had 5 tool player written all over him for a long time. Imagine what could have been…
Lunchbox45
don’t you find it even more remarkable what he’s become..
I mean to go on a crack binge and then win the AL MVP..
just shows you have much talent this guy actually has..
I also wonder why we don’t hear of more talented kids who don’t get mixed up in the wrong stuff after they are 18-19 living on their own with large signing bonuses….
dc21892
No doubt. Great to see.
cedarandstone
Most burn out in the low minors and are footnotes.
Tom Wilhemsen with the Brewers and Jeff Allison from the Marlins org for two examples.
Lunchbox45
not familiar with either.. they hit the pipe?
MLB should definitely look in to deferring signing bonuses until the age of 21 or something ..
dc21892
I believe Jeff Allison was a highly touted pitching prospect. Could be thinking of someone else, though.
vtadave
Nope, that’s the guy. Drew some Josh Beckett comparisons coming out of the draft, but heroin and OxyContin derailed his career. He’s now a 26 year-old coming off a poor year in Double-A. At least he’s still giving it a go, but there doesn’t appear to be a Hamilton-like ending in store for him. At least he’s still alive…
garylanglais
Allison is from the town next to mine. There was alot of speculation that he was abusing throughout HS. Was MA baseball player of the year and went top half of 1st round to Marlins. Shortly after being drafted and reporting to camp he was sent home and shut down for some time. He came back but was never the same. I believe he had another relapse before finally coming clean. The problem is teams have a difficult time learning such information before drafting these players and handing out the big signing bonuses. Hopefully with the new minor league blood testing rules they will begin to apply those to draft eligible players as well.
metsman
now he’s high on jesus, which, if you have ever been around a born-again, can be even worse…praise the lord, hallelujah!!!
Lunchbox45
Texas would be idiotic to bring up Hamilton’s substance abuse in the arb hearings… For the 3.25 he received last year, the Rangers got the best bargain in sports. . The guy is probably one of the most naturally gifted players ever, the Rangers should lock him down now before he gets too expensive.
It doesn’t send a good message to the Josh when the team was willing to spend on Lee but get all cheap when it comes to him.
Backup_Slider
Weeks and his representatives are flat out loony asking for $7.2M. If he had consistently posted numbers like he did in 2010 they’d have a decent shot, but his pre-2010 numbers pretty much eliminate any chance his side has of winning the case.
Lunchbox45
not based on what other second baseman in this market are making.
RedSoxDynasty
Aaron Hill immediately comes to mind for overpaid 2B!
garylanglais
He doesnt have to prove he’s worth $7.2 to win the case. He only has to prove he’s 1 dollar over the midpoint which is a shade over $6 mil which he is has a shot at arguing. He will use Uggla and Kelly Johnson (if he settles over 6 or wins his case) as comparisons. Power hitting 2B’s have huge advantages in hearings due to there being so few of them
AmericanMovieFan
I think Hamilton is such a unique case that he should be handled uniquely. I would say lock him up long term to a heavily incentive laden deal with opt out clauses on both sides. Something that could max out at 6 years/$120MM but wouldn’t be more than 2 years/$12MM guaranteed. I know it sounds crazy but the fact is he’s either worth A-list money or is such a huge liability that nobody wants to pay him, so they’ve got to meet in the middle somehow.
cubs223425
How are Guthrie and Dickey more watch-worthy than Marmol and Garza (assuming that they don’t get deals done)?
BlueCatuli
I thought Garza already avoided arbitration. I was a little confused as to why Marmol wasn’t on there.
pageian
If I were Ed Wade, going to arb with Wandy Rodriguez, the first thing I’d bring up would be his home/road splits. Without checking I’d guess that Wandy is one of the more extreme examples of pitching well at home and poorly on the road, and he’s done it consistently for awhile. I don’t think it’s something that works in his favor, for instance I doubt Wandy would bring up the fact that he pitches so well at home. The ‘Stros definitely should bring it up though.
Since_77
You might be right but the Astros overall as a team played 13 games under .500 on the road.
Rodriquez can also add that he was 5 wins and 1 loss with a 2.11 ERA in after the All-Star break.
baycommuter
The Pirates must feel really good about beating Barry Bonds two straight years in arbitration instead of trying to get him to sign an extension… the Rangers are in the same boat.
metsman
I’m suprised Pagan doesn’t make this list; while there is not a large discrepancy between offered and requested figures, if you look at the salaries of those who put up similar numbers last year, Pagan is grossly underpaid for being in the prime of his career. he had the 9th highest WAR of all position players in the NL.
Tony P.
Josh Hamilton should get PAID! He deserves it and if they are worried about the drug issue, just add the stipulation into the contract. Its that simple.
Alex Thunstrom
Twins need to forget about arbitration with Delmon Young and lock him up for a multiyear deal or he could get very expensive after this season
Mark Bauernfeind
The Twins probably can’t afford to lock up Delmon Young, plus with Revere and Hicks coming up, they probably don’t need to
Alex Thunstrom
No chance they’ll get anywhere near the production out of either of them. Neither are power hitters, Delmon is. Can’t afford to? They’re already going to pay him over 5 mill this year so might as well extend the deal so the price doesn’t go up
Alex Thunstrom
Same thing with Liriano too actually