Click below to read a transcript of today's chat with Tim Dierkes.
This is why 90% of Red Sox fans annoy me. They believe that the Sox are facing no trouble by losing their first 6 and not really picking back up as of late. They are not going to win 100-105 games like I had heard predicted before the season. 90 wins is a lot more realistic. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: 2008 Detroit Tigers.
To be honest quite a few Sox fans annoy me as well (though the same can be said about the fans of basically any team) but I don’t think that that is a reason to be annoyed with them. It’s only natural to be optimistic about your favorite team. And to be honest there’s no reason not to be optimistic at this point in the season, like everything in baseball things can change fast, but a little dose of reality never hurts.
Even though you somewhat disagree, you seem to be one of the 10% that I can tolerate. You win a gold star. * (pretend that it is gold)
*blushes* awe shucks
what a ridiculous comment
Who cares about the record?!? All it takes to make the playoffs is winning the division. The Sox are 4.5 games back with 151 games to play. I’d say that gives them more than an ample amount of time to make it up. The fact remains that, while the Sox are struggling, the top team in the division is 2 games above .500 at 6-4. Nobody is running away with the division. If the Yankees were 10-1 right now, and the Sox were 8 games back already, then sure I can definitely see it being a serious problem. But only 2 teams in the division are above .500 and they’re both only 2 games above it. That’s why a lot of people are saying it’s not a huge deal. The Sox are obviously going to turn it around, Craw + Gonzo won’t combine to hit .190 by year’s end. Sox are fortunate that their deficit isn’t bigger than it is, and there’s no other way to look at that.
Ding, ding ding. We have found someone to come into the 90% range. Congrats.
Ok. Yup. You’re right. Sox are out of contention. Pack it up now and get some extra rest for next season.
No matter how much you WANT the Sox to be out of it, it’s still April 14th. Taxes aren’t even due yet.
If the Sox were 4.5 games out on August 1st, with a few series against the leader left to play, would you count them out then?? Do you realize how ridiculous you sound when you’re saying, after 11 games, that 90% of Sox fans are idiots for not counting their team out??
Where did I say that the Sox were out of it. I just said that they are in trouble…
This thread is old so I’m not sure if you’ll respond or not. Anyway – I wasn’t saying they’re not in trouble, all I was saying is that they are very fortunate that nobody in the division is starting out overly hot, so while sure there’s plenty of ground to make up and the Sox are at a point where they need to turn it around, 5 games out is still not worth panicking.
There is a reason they started 0-6. Things won’t just magically turn around and they will make the slow start up. Realistically to make they playoffs, they need to win about 91 more games. Thats a .615 winning percent. In the last decade, their best full season winning percent is .605 in 2004. Can it be done? Sure. Will it? Probably not. The point is, this start has put a mountain in front of them to climb.
Ok. So the Sox are now 4-10. Do you think the Sox have a better team than they did last year? I’d say they do. Last year, they started 4-9. They were 6 games back of 1st place. This year, at 4-10, they’re 4.5 back of 1st place. Last year, on July 2nd, they were 0.5 games back of 1st place. So save the “Oh they have to play .615 W% baseball to make it to 91 wins”. Baseball teams are streaky and that’s just the way it is. The Sox could very well rip off 40 of their next 55, and then what? They could play at a .550 W% and still make the playoffs. So are they a lock to make the playoffs then? No. It’s freaking April 17th. Give me a break.
The 2008 Tigers started 0-7 after adding Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, and Edgar Renteria. Did I think they were better than the 2007 team that went 88-74 and missed the playoffs? Yeah, I thought they would win 92-97 games. They slumped out of the gate They were over .500 at the half way point but ended up at 74-88. The point being, starting 0-6 and now being 4-10 is a big deal. There are reasons they have played the way the have, and expecting them to basically “wipe the slate clean, go on a run, and not have this affect them” is a foolish way to think. As a fan, you should hope for the best, but the reality is that they have under performed and the season expectations have changed. A world Series is almost certainly out of the question, and playoffs are a distant possibility. There is a reason that the saying is “You can’t win a pennant in April, but you can lose one”
Hahahaha. Dude. You’re saying it’s more appropriate to compare the 2011 Red Sox to the 2008 Tigers than to compare them to the 2010 Red Sox? That makes a lot of sense.
Just because your boys busted in 2008 doesn’t mean the 2011 Red Sox are “almost certainly out of the question” in regards to a WS. You really think Carl Crawford is going to hit .130, or Ellsbury is going to hit .195? Youk is going to hit .205? Lackey is going to have a 16 ERA, DiceK a 12 ERA, and Buchholz, fresh off a 2.33 ERA season, is going to regress to a 6.50 ERA? I guess Bard’s 7.46 ERA is going to stick as well.
Why don’t you check back in June. By the way. If the Yanks lose tonight, the Sox are only 4 games back. You’re a complete fool and idiot if you think a 4 game deficit can’t be made up in 148 games.
I waited past June because playoffs don’t start until September, but I checked back.
Not saying the past is irrelevent, but NO team is ever hot from start to finish. The Red Sox have surprised us all with how poor they have played in their first 11 games. Could they not surprise with a really hot streak? As bad as some (Dice-K & Lackey) have been they are better than what they have shown so far.
They could, but you can’t just assume that they will. Until they do their projections have to be adjusted down.
No team has ever won (gone?) the world series after losing their first 6 games. Now sure you can bring up the 2004 ALCS, but just because you win the lottery, doesn’t mean you will win it twice.
all that tells you is that it’s unusual for good teams to lose 6 games before winning one. if you just look for 6 game losing streaks, you’ll have a hard time finding a playoff team without one. it happens. it’s normal. it even has a name: variance. it’s the same reason the best poker players in the world lose money sometimes
the red sox were 8 games out after 25 games just last season. examples of good teams having bad stretches abound. it’s just very uncommon right out of the gate, especially for teams with that much talent
is boston in good shape? not at all. is it time to worry about making the playoffs? nope
“the red sox were 8 games out after 25 games just last season. examples of good teams having bad stretches abound. it’s just very uncommon right out of the gate, especially for teams with that much talent”
I’m not trying to be a smart alec, but doesn’t this prove Tim’s point since the Red Sox didn’t make the playoffs last year after having a poor start? Doesn’t that show that it is important to have a good start? Perhaps I’m misunderstanding your point and you are agreeing?
To address the other side, I saw an article about the Braves the other day where the writer showed how their recent history (within the last 10 years I think) pointed to them having better overall seasons when they do have a rough start. I think it was 2003 the team started off 4-8 or something and ended up winning over 100 games. As has been mentioned, I think it is worrying that they’ve struggled, but I wouldn’t count them out just yet.
i can see why that might be confusing, but no, the red sox were back in contention by the break last year. they didn’t ultimately make the playoffs because half of their starters sustained injuries. they won 89 games despite that fact — and despite a slow start
it’s not good to start slow and it’s no fun to watch. but in short, if you have to be 5 (or 10 for that matter) games back, you want to be 5 games back with 150 games to play rather than 100. or 50
Gotcha and agree with you about it being better to be behind early than late. At least you still have a chance if you fall behind early.
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