AL East Notes: Jurrjens, Chen, Longoria, Yankees

Here's the latest from the AL East….

  • The Red Sox are not in on Jair Jurrjens, but the Orioles, Blue Jays, Rockies and Tigers remain in on the Braves right-hander, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter).
  • The Orioles are still interested in Chunichi Dragons left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, and the team has scouted Chen several times in Japan.  The O's were linked to Chen earlier this offseason and we've also heard that the PIrates had an interest in the free agent southpaw.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes predicted Chen could be signed for a contract in the neighborhood of four years and under $20MM.
  • Rays third baseman Evan Longoria texted the St. Petersburg Times (reported by The Times' Marc Topkin) to deny recent internet rumors that he wanted to leave Tampa Bay.  "I don't have any idea where that rumor came from! It's completely false,'' Longoria said.  "I've said from the start I love Tampa, I love the direction we are heading as a franchise and there is no better place for me to continue to grow as a player and person.''
  • The Yankees have been quiet this winter seemingly in an attempt to avoid a hefty luxury tax penalty next season, but one AL executive doesn't think this strategy will last.  "I think they can sit back right now," the anonymous exec told The Star-Ledger's Jeff Bradley, "because on paper they have a very strong team. But do I think the Yankees won't spend aggressively if they start to dip in the win column? Not a chance. I think they'll do what they have to do to win."
  • The Athletics wanted right-hander Noah Syndergaard from the Blue Jays as part of any trade for Gio Gonzalez, reported Jeff Blair on the Fan590's Prime Time Sports radio show (passed on by Andrew Stoeten of the Drunk Jays Fans blog.)  Syndergaard was drafted 38th overall by Toronto in the 2010 draft and has posted impressive numbers in his first two years of pro ball.
  • Earlier today, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith posted a collection of Red Sox notes.


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163 Comments on "AL East Notes: Jurrjens, Chen, Longoria, Yankees"


3 years 6 months ago

Who would blame Longoria for wanting to leave? They play in the worst ballpark and have the worst fans in the entire league.

Josh Gedert
3 years 6 months ago

The Oakland Athletics fans may disagree with you.

Garafraxaguy
3 years 6 months ago

Fans? I think you mean fan.

Garafraxaguy
3 years 6 months ago

Fans? I think you mean fan.

3 years 6 months ago

Bring him to Detroit!

Runtime
3 years 6 months ago

Pretty sure Toronto has the worst ball park in the league…

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

No rain delays

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 6 months ago

same with the trop

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

But the Jays can let the sun shine when its sunny.

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 6 months ago

sure can

Jeff
3 years 6 months ago

I don’t think you’d want Florida heat in your park during the Summer- it’s hell.

grownice
3 years 6 months ago

 Compared to the trop? seriously?

Guest
3 years 6 months ago

As a Canadian, I can testify to it being pretty awful.

Guest
3 years 6 months ago

As a Canadian, I can testify to it being pretty awful.

Onetimeaccount
3 years 6 months ago

Worst fans or no fans? If you meant worst then you just sound like you have a bias.

kdawg89
3 years 6 months ago

No..they have the worst fan base…They also play in an area with only a fraction of the population of other teams. And I’ll tell you what…I’d rather sit in the Trop than bake outside in the 100 degree heat with 95% humidity down here and it’s not that bad (Have you even been there?)  Those of us that are actually fans are loyal to the team and have WAY more class than many other places..atleast our fans don’t almost beat someone to death or pour beer and spit on a visiting players wife or throw beer and other things at outfielders from the other team….

faceforest
3 years 6 months ago

PREACH!

johnsmith4
3 years 6 months ago

I doubt Longoria wants to leave Tampa.  It is one of the best teams in baseball.  Smartest baseball operations with tremendous prospect funnel.

3 years 6 months ago

Did you hear Evan Longoria is being traded to the Houston Astros……………

mattinglyfan
3 years 6 months ago

The Yankees will do what they have to do to win, yes, but they do have their payroll limits like every other team. I know I’m stating the obvious but seems like it always needs to be said almost every year.

$3513744
3 years 6 months ago

Don’t know why you would need to.  I think it’s clear everybody understands this, but lets not go crazy.  Fact is their payroll limits are not like every other team.  It’s significantly higher than most teams and they’ve shown they’re not afraid to spend what’s needed if there’s someone they really want.

Paul_Zuvella
3 years 6 months ago

On Jurrjens, I don’t see where the Toronto interest in him could be. I think he’s benefitted from pitching in the NL and would otherwise have Brett Cecil like numbers if he were in the AL East. There’s nothing about him that in any way puts him in a class with Latos or Gonzalez. 

LayerCake
3 years 6 months ago

Dunno about that. I don’t have the numbers here as I’m in the car but his small sample size against AL East teams isn’t too shabby. I believe its like 39IP and a sub 3 Era

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

38.2 innings pitched (none against the Rays) with 8 ER’s . I can’t figure out how to do the exact math on it , but it’s an ERA below 2 seeing how he has logged 2.2 extra innings than 36 which would be 4 games at 9 innings and in the estimated 4 games (36 innings not including the extra 2.2) he only gave up 8 ER’s . Which just going on the 36 innings , his ERA would be 2.00 . So it would be below that after the extra 2.2 I didn’t figure in . My head hurts now .

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

Thats a 1.88 ERA, but too small a sample size. Its not just playing the teams though, its playing in the HR friendly Rogers Center, Yankee Stadium, and Fenway.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

Like you said , it’s a small sample size . BUT , he has pitched 6.1 innings at Fenway with a 2.84 ERA and 8 innings at Toronto (Rogers Center) and didn’t give up a run . I don’t think his transition into the AL or AL East would hurt his production as much as some might think .

He IS NOT Roy Halladay , but I will use him as reference seeing how he was in the AL East for years and is now in the NL East . Roy’s last 2 years in the AL East had his ERA just under 2.80 . His ERA in the NL East has been around 2.40 . That’s a .40 run difference . His ERA (not including his first 7 starts of his career in Detroit) is around 3.25 . Let’s just say he does get traded into the AL East . you take his 3.25 estimated career ERA and add .40 to it and you still have a decent 3.65 ERA . Thats a pretty good ERA for a pitcher in the AL East . Or best case senario , you get the Jurrjens fromm last year or from 2009 and get a pitcher with a respectable 3.20-3.40 ERA . In the AL east , he could be a 15+ game winner with a ERA that low .

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

I think Halladay is a bad example for this, but I agree, I think pitching in the AL east typically yields an ERA 10-15% higher than pitching elsewhere.

But every pitcher is different. Rauch is a flyball pitcher, his ERA went through the roof pitching at the Rogers center.

With Jurrjens, stuff isn’t the issue, its consistency and health.

0bsessions
3 years 6 months ago

That sample size is small to the point of being completely useless. Basically one start against each team is not enough to go on for anyone. Kason Gabbard has, to this day, a career ERA at Fenway Park of 1.51 (Man, I remember a point where a lot of Red Sox fans were touting him as out best pitching prospect) in 36 IP, but that didn’t stop him from essentially bombing out of the MLB after only two and a half seasons.

Never trust a SSS.

braves077
3 years 6 months ago

Jurrjens is only 25 and a team would have 2 more years of him. He has had better numbers then Latos.  Better WAR then Latos. In Latos best year (last year he had a 3.2 while Jurrjens this year had 3.8 while only throwing 152 inn. bc of nagging injuries.  Jurrjens best year was 5.3.  Jurrjens is equal in terms of Latos return package only turnoff is the nagging injuries even though they haven’t been w/ his arm. Braves would be wise to hold onto him and trade him during mid season.

Brv Rocks
3 years 6 months ago

Latos has much more trade value than Jurrjens.  For one thing, he has four more years of team control.  Also, he is a strikeout pitcher that won’t be affected by moving to a small ballpark.  Jurrjens is a fly ball pitcher that needs to play on teams with at least a pitching neutral ballpark. Finally, as you mentioned, Jurrjens is injury prone.

Gio Gonzalez and Jurrjens are very similar, but Latos is much better than either of them.

braves077
3 years 6 months ago

Yes, he has 2 more years but Jurrjens has pitched better then him. Relatively the same age. Latos does have more trade value bc of the years and Jurrjens nagging injuries. That’s why I mentioned that the Braves should hold onto him to get his trade value at his highest peak and then trade him.

19bravos95
3 years 6 months ago

Dear Frank Wren,

Please do not sell low on JJ or Prado.

Thanks.

Justin Bobko
3 years 6 months ago

neither latos nor gonzalez has ever had as good a season as jurrjens had in 2009…

rundmc1981
3 years 6 months ago

And he would have won at least 3 more games (for a total of 17) that season if he even had remotely decent run support. 2.60 ERA and only 14-10 record…? 

Brv Rocks
3 years 6 months ago

Jurrjens isn’t in the class of Latos.  However, Gonzalez and Jurrjens are roughly equivalent pitchers.

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 6 months ago

correct, both aren’t that good

Brv Rocks
3 years 6 months ago

Jurrjens isn’t in the class of Latos.  However, Gonzalez and Jurrjens are roughly equivalent pitchers.

3 years 6 months ago

Who else do you think the A’s asked for Gio Gonzalez with Syndergaard?

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

I dont see how Syndergaard would be untouchable. .
 

3 years 6 months ago

I think any team with control over someone with a name like Syndergaard would consider them untouchable.

jedicouncil
3 years 6 months ago

you might want to learn about jays prospects then….he has front line starter written all over him

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 6 months ago

DUR WE HAVE A HOMER OVER HERE

johnsmith4
3 years 6 months ago

Syndergaard is ranked ahead of Deck McGuire for Jays prospects.

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

 and?

what kind of player do you expect to trade for with out including someone decent.

Trust me, if we could send Eric Thames and Brett Cecil for a starting pitcher, I would be down.

but you must give to get.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 6 months ago

How does that make him “untouchable”. Wasn’t Drabek “untouchable”? Besides, Lunchbox is a very knowledgeable JAYS FAN. 

3 years 6 months ago

yea, no ones going to call a kid with only 60 pro innings to his credit untouchable. short of the strasburg-harper-trout type guys, no prospects are untouchable, not even d’arnaud.

cyberboo
3 years 6 months ago

It doesn’t really matter because the moment they mentioned Syndergaart, who has ace potential for a number 3 pitcher in Gonzalez, the talks died.

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

Gonzalez is number 2 at least (top 30-60 SP in baseball). Some people might say he’s top 30 (number 1). He had the 19th best ERA in the bigs among qualified SP. 17th in strikeouts.

I think the Jays will be lucky if Syndergaard can put up those types of numbers.

3 years 6 months ago

Gonzalez is a #2 AT BEST. A good rotation will have him at #3. A weak at #2. A terrible at #1. The Phillies at #5.

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

Well, I see it as #1’s are top 30, #2’s are 30-60 etc. There’s no way he isn’t in the top 60 category right now. He has an aweful lot of numbers in the “top 30″ area.

RYC09
3 years 6 months ago

ERA isn’t a great way to define a pitcher’s value whatsoever. By those standards a Brandon Morrow, or Roy Oswalt is worse than Freddy Garcia because Garcia has a lower ERA. This is “yours” and many other general fans’ talent evaluation, which is ridiculous. Gio would get lit up in the AL East and may even get lit up with the offenses in the NL East. He has a horrendous walk rate, an FIP at least 0.5 higher than his ERA the last couple of seasons, and his HR rate will soar in Nationals Park. On the other hand, we have a flame-throwing tall righty, who has solid secondary offerings, with terrific K rates and good walk rates, with ace potential.
Him on top of possibly D’Arnaud and another prospect or two, no thanks at all.

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

You don’t just look at ERA, but it is a pitchers defining statistic. His job is to stop runs from scoring.

Gio would have it rough in the AL east, but “lit up” is hardly accurate. A guy like Garza gets ERA’s ain the 3.8-4 range in the AL East, and then 3.3ish in the NL Central. Very comparable to Gio’s 3.3 he’s gotten the past 2 seasons.

Now if you want a totally useless stat look at the FIP. It only looks at walks, strikeouts, and HR.

Also AL West teams average 688 runs on the season, while NL East teams averaged 664 runs. So if anything moving to the NL East should help Gio (by your own logic).

But I agree with you about not dealing prospects for these pitchers. The market is set way too high.

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

Where was Gio ranked in BB/9?

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

He Had the most walks of any pitcher in MLB. But then again, he gives up so few hits that it compensates. He was 61st in WHIP, but walks are not as good as hits (no matter what they say). This is evident by his 19th best ERA.

3 years 6 months ago

walks aren’t as good as hits but there is more luck involved getting a single than a walk, most times getting a single is just hitting the ball to the right spot, from a pitcher’s perspective limiting hits would be akin to batters hitting the ball right at your fielders

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

These starters face close to 1000 hitters a year, the law of averages works itself out on that one.

Also, I would say pitchers have a heckova lot to do with how many hits they give up. Its a lot easier to hit a single if a Jesse Litsche cutter up and in than it is to hit one off Romero’s changeup. Its not just the “hitting” and “missing” aspect. Well placed pitchers will lead to soft ground balls. Poorly placed ones get hit hard into the outfield. Generally the latter yields more hits.

0bsessions
3 years 6 months ago

61st in WHIP is an extremely deceptive stat when not accounting for the fact that figure is out of a relatively small field.

Per Fangraphs, he was 58th in WHIP out of a possible 90 qualifying pitchers last year, which is a pretty bad number that wouldn’t take kindly to being moved out of a park that suppresses offense in general.

0bsessions
3 years 6 months ago

Here’s where he ranks on the last two seasons (Out of a possible 85 qualifying pitchers):

37th in WAR
36th in FIP
50th in xFIP
21st in K/9
85th in BB/9 (MLB worst for starters)
17th in ERA-
43rd in FIP-
53rd in SIERA
22nd in tERA
19th in ERA
54th in WHIP

Now given, all of those stats align as “top 30-60,” but one has to account for the fact that your calculation for determining a 1-5 pitcher is extremely sketchy in that it assumes there are 150 SP’ers at all times when in reality, as noted, there are only 85 qualifying pitchers in the last two seasons (Gonzalez’s two good seasons). Ergo, a more accurate assessment of “placement” would be in increments of seventeen (1-17 would be #1, 18-34 #2 and so on).

Now here’s where it gets really complex. As you can see, Gonzalez is all over the place. Things like ERA/ERA- have him as a borderline #1 while other stats have him as high as a #4. Obviously, it’s going to be somewhere closer to the middle as each of these things has its issues (ERA/ERA- don’t account for park factor, something that’s been a HUGE advantage for him on his career while some of his lower stats don’t account for defensive issues behind him). If we go with an admittedly less than scientific method (But better than just cherry picking), we come to an aggregate of those placements of 39.73, placing him firmly as a high #3.

All told when looking at everything peripheral-wise and accounting for the fact he benefits from a very large home/road split in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the MLB, his true talent level is probably that of a #3 pitcher, #2 pitcher at best on a thinner pitching staff.

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

No, no, no. The reason only 90 or so pitchers get qualified is because there are only that many good enough to be qualified in the first place. You can’t break up the top innings guys and say they must be split 1-5, thats nuts.

FIP is 100% useless, and WAR is 50% useless (though it generally gets it right), and the rest are all in his favour (with the exception of walks, but he gives up so few hits that it doesn’t matter). But heres another way of doing it. Look at the 30 MLB teams and tell me if he is a #1 or 2 on 15 or more teams? You will have no trouble getting to 15.

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

Gonzalez is number 2 at least (top 30-60 SP in baseball). Some people might say he’s top 30 (number 1). He had the 19th best ERA in the bigs among qualified SP. 17th in strikeouts.

I think the Jays will be lucky if Syndergaard can put up those types of numbers.

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 6 months ago

Syndergaard straight up for Gonzalez might have been an okay-ish deal. Anything more and pass.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 6 months ago

wow…..

3 years 6 months ago

what gm in their right mind wouldnt trade a prospect with barely any pro experience for a proven 2-3 starter? 

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

he just doesn’t really like gonzalez..

I’m in the same camp, but I would have said, I wouldn’t move anything of value for gio..

Trust me your team is sad that he didn’t come to the AL east

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 6 months ago

Gio is incredibly overrated. He has strikeout potential, and that’s about it

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

If you copy the nats trade, They probably wanted D’Arnaud and 1/2 more pitching prospects (take your pick). Not worth it.

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

Jurrjens is an interesting pitcher. Should cost a team less than Gio or Latos.  

I have to think they wanted a package of 4 players (like the Nats gave them) including Syn and prolly 2 other jays SP prospects. Not worth it. Some teams have really tossed away the farm this offseason. Glad the Jays ain’t one of them.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

I can accept the fact that some people think that some Braves fans overvalue Jurrjens . But I honestly can say that he probably is worth what Wren is asking for . If you were to just look at his stats alone , you wouldn’t be overly impressed . And he continually pitches better than his stats says that he should . I don’t belive in ‘luck’ , especially when he has done it more than just 1 year . If it were not for his knee last year , he could have possibly won 17+ games last year (where he won 13 in only 2/3 of a season) on a Braves team who’s offense wasn’t exactly great last year . His biggest question mark , to me , would be wether or not he could stay healthy . But he is only 25 years of age (which is just as young as some prospects this year) , none of his injuries have been anything related to his shoulder or his arm . So I really don’t see why he couldn’t be able to come back and be able to pitch like he did in 2009 where he pitched 215 innings and had an ERA of 2.60 .

With all that being said , I would think that some team would realize that and would see enough value there to make a deal for him .

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

Oh health is the difference. Gio and Latos pitched around 400 innings (cummulative) in the past 2 seasons. Jurrjens pitched 268 innings.
Can’t see anybody breaking the bank if they don’t know if the guy can pitch 200 innings. Only had 7 wins in 2010. Tough to forget that.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

Umm….nobody has forgotten the past . That 7 win season was an injury season . But if you want to look back at the past , why didn’t you mention the 215 innings pitched and the ERA of 2.60 he posted back in 2009 ?

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

Because nobody is going to pay the same price for him if he can only pitch 200(ish) innings 1 out of every 3 seasons. Latos and Gio have done it 2 in a row.

As a team looking to acquire a player (for the long term) you can’t look at him and see his injury filled past, and assume he’ll never have an injury again.

2009 was 3 years ago. He has to show he can do it again.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

But you cannot deny 2009 either . Because 2009 shows what he is capable of in a full season . The whole injury thing has gotten out of hand . It wasn’t his shoulder or his arm . And he is only 25 . You can’t give up on a player and devalue him when he is that young . If he was 35+ , going on the last few years of his career , then yeah , I would be worried . But he hasn’t even hit his prime yet .

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

Yes you can. When a guy is 25, and can only say he had one season as a consistent, dominant pitcher, then you can’t trade for him as if he’s a dominant consistent pitcher. (not to mention that it was 3 years ago).

He is a gamble. The ceilling is high, but so is the risk.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

And I say you can trade him for a prospect for the very reason you just stated . It’s a risk to trade for any prospect who has yet to see ML level talent . So if you think that it’s taking a risk to trade for Jurrjens . It would be just as much of a risk to trade for any prospect . Not every prospect turns into a good ML talent . Many of them have busted .

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

OK, but thats why it took four good prospects to get Gonzalez. Jurrjens wont go for the same as he’s a risk.

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

OK, but thats why it took four good prospects to get Gonzalez. Jurrjens wont go for the same as he’s a risk.

Brv Rocks
3 years 6 months ago

Yes, Braves fans overvalue Jurrjens.  Too many people are fooled by his low ERA.  He is a #3 starter type with two years of team control left.  He won’t get as much in return as Gio Gonzalez (has four years of team control) but the Braves should be able to get a couple of good prospects for him or a similarly valued outfielder. 

Southgadawg
3 years 6 months ago

Jurrijens is at worst a co-#1 starter on most teams he is a true “ACE”. He has the stats to prove it. I would rather have him than Latos or Gio any day. He is not a power pitcher, but neither was Maddox or Glavine and they are both 300+ winners. Jurrijens is worth everything Wren has asked for and probably even more. He is not a “prospect” but a true proven elite starter for any team.

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

Jurrjens elite? Really?

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

I don’t think I would call him an elite pitcher either . But I do think he would be a valuable pitcher for just about any team looking to improve their staff .

Jeff
3 years 6 months ago

He’s not Elite, but a healthy JJ is a #2 pitcher. 

I’d be willing to keep him, re-sign him, decline Hudson’s option and use that money to pay JJ long-term, then deal Hanson if Teheran or Beachy breaks through this year.

rundmc1981
3 years 6 months ago

Yuck…c’mon, man. Sign him long-term with Boras? No thanks. We still haven’t benefitted from having this pitching depth and we definitely won’t do that by locking up Jurrjens long-term, if we’re overpaying for him. 

I don’t mind Hudson’s option, plus there’s a season that separates Hudson’s option and JJ’s free agency – presuming that Boras will follow his agenda and advise Jurrjens to seek free agency in 2014.

And deal Hanson??? He’s 25! You’d be selling low on Hanson. Compare Hanson to where Halladay was at at the same age and you’ll see they’re not far off.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

Hanson pitching motion scares me . There was a lot of talk before last year about his delivery and the possibility of a future injury . And then this year he had an injury with his shoulder . If Jurrjens is traded , I would let Hanson build up his value and sell high on him the next offseason and resign Hudson for a few more years .     

rundmc1981
3 years 6 months ago

I agree, Hanson’s delivery is somewhat scary, but I can’t think that he would already be making adjustments if he’s receiving medical advice saying that his pitching motion is what is causing his shoulder problems, and possibly future problems. If he were a mid-level prospect, I’d agree with you. But this guy has elite potential and unfortunately, we just have to handle him like TOR handled Halladay back in the day and hope he works his kinks out and grows into the pitcher we all expect him to be.

Southgadawg
3 years 6 months ago

Actually JJ is elite and the other elite pitcher in the Brave’s rotation you just said decline his option. Have you ever seen a baseball game at the major league level? Why would you want to delete your co-#1 starter in Hudson? Trade Hanson if Beachy or Teheran breaks through, no way you keep your best which for the Braves are, Hudson, Jurrijens, Hanson, Beachy, Teheran, Medlin, Delgado, Vizcano, and Minor. When one gets hurt or the schedule says you need a rested pitcher you have one of the above to call up without losing quality. 

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

He may be al those things you say (though I doubt it), but one thing he is not is proven. He needs an injury free year to fetch what latos and Gio got.

rundmc1981
3 years 6 months ago

Agreed. He’s not consistent like Gonzalez, though that can change fast. And how can an “elite” pitcher never have a 15-win season in 4+ seasons of play?

playedthegame
3 years 6 months ago

Being a Det. fan, i hated to see him traded away, because i felt he had what it takes. But i agree with you, he needs an injury free year to prove his worth.. That being said i’d love DET> to get him back.(for the right price-no BOESCH)

RYC09
3 years 6 months ago

The Jays don’t need a under-powering pitcher in the over-powering AL East, no thanks.

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

Braves and Tigers fans both overvalue Jurrjens. Match made in heaven.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

“Too many people are fooled by his low ERA.”

Doesn’t ERA stand for earned runs allowed . If so , doesn’t that imply that he at least finds a way to limit the runs scored upon him which would allow his team a chance to win if he keeps it low ?

The Braves had one of the best starting rotations last year . Guess who was our best pitcher before he got hurt ? He may not be an ace on some of the better ballclubs . But he would be on about half of all the other clubs .

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

His FIP isn’t that impressive.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

Regardless , he seems to find a way in leverage situations to get outs and keep the scoring at a minimum . He would be one pitcher I would use to say that their are flaws in the advanced stats system .

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

 he would get wrecked in the AL east, soft tossers always do.

I’d compare JJ to Marcum, and Marcum got chewed in the the east

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

His 2008-2010 numbers in Toronto are pretty good. 3.53 ERA. His ERA with the Brewers this season was 3.54.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

He’s pitched quite well against the AL East . I do see his ERA going up about .25-.50 per/9 . But he should still be able to sustain an ERA of around 3.50 or so .

LifeLongYankeeFan
3 years 6 months ago

I’m not just saying this because I’m a Yankee fan but Pettitte and Mussina did very well in the AL East

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

Or maybe he’s just out performed his peripherals for some reason.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

“Or maybe he’s just out performed his peripherals for some reason.”

You forgot to put “consistently” in there .

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

Maybe he does have an ability to limit the damage. His peripherals, minus ERA/ERA-, still aren’t that great, though.

Jeff
3 years 6 months ago

And FIP isn’t perfectly correlated to a pitcher’s value, and some pitchers are undervalued and overvalued by FIP.

0bsessions
3 years 6 months ago

Which is why you don’t simply rely on one stat to determine the value of a pitcher. Unfortunately for Jurrjens, most advanced stats say he’s not a great pitcher. SIERA, tERA, FIP, xFIP all place him as an effectively middle of the road pitcher. ERA and ERA- are about the only stats that look particularly favorably on him.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

I know most all would disagree , but ERA is the one that I like to look at for any pitcher . It tells you as simply as possible as to how well you keep runs from scoring against you . I doesn’t matter how you get the outs to keep the other team from scoring , as long as you are getting them . I would rather have JJ , who knows how to pitch and keep the runs at a minimum , over a pitcher who allows almost 4 runs a game and strikes out twice as many batters . You can strike out 8 or 9 a game and still have an inning where you allow 3 or 4 runs and lose . Jurrjens is never gonna strike out a ton of batters . But he will manage the situations with runners on and limit the damage and get himself out of pressure situations .

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

ERA is a misleading stat, though. There are other better stats to utilize when evaluating a starting pitcher.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

And those other stats may work on most other pitchers . But in JJ’s case , I would have to disagree . He han’t just pitched against the peripherals in only one year . He has done it fairly consistently so far throughout his career .

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

How does any of that negate the fact ERA isn’t a great stat to use when evaluating starting pitchers?

You know who else outpitches his peripherals on a consistent basis? Joe Saunders.

playedthegame
3 years 6 months ago

Being healthy all year is the most important stat for him…

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

Agreed. And he’s had, what, one full year of health?

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

ERA is a misleading stat, though. There are other better stats to utilize when evaluating a starting pitcher.

rundmc1981
3 years 6 months ago

I agree he is overvalued by Braves fans, but who cares what fans feel about him? But #3 starter??? What? The man was the 2nd-best SP in the NL before the AS Break last season. ATL has some of the best pitching in the NL and Jurrjens was the only All-Star SP. On many teams Jurrjens would be a #1-2 (NYM, PIT, BAL, KC, CLE, NYY, CHC, SD, DET, COL, MIN, HOU), even with his injuries. Frankly, the only doubts I have against him are injury-related. When he’s healthy, he’s great. And when you consider that none of his injuries have involved his pitching arm, while I can’t see him fetching a Gonz/Latos return – something in that range wouldn’t be far off.

I still think they need to hold onto him unless they’re blown away, let him pitch the first part of the season where he’s golden, build his stock like last year and sell him at the deadline.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

Hanson should have gone to the AS game as well over Voglesong . Bochy showed a little favortism there .

playedthegame
3 years 6 months ago

  In Detroit he would be a #4 pitcher! In order to be #3 he would have to stay healthy all year & prove his “WORTH”!

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

His stats against the AL East and in their ballparks might suprise you , albeit they being from small sample sizes . He has actually done rather well .

3 years 6 months ago

Jair is a stud, just watch him keep that sub 3 era next season and possibly a Cy candidate next season and we all no that was BS with his sub 2 era and didn’t get to start the Allstar game.  Hope he don’t get traded n show every other team this chance they blew to acquire him.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

I don’t know about him being a stud . But I can easily see him coming back to pitch 185+ innings , winning 15+ , and having an ERA around 3.25 . If it weren’t for our logjam in the starting rotation , I don’t think the Braves would be dangling him for trade bait . But where it stands right now , the Braves have as many as 8 ML ready starting pitchers on the roster . So someone may have to go .

NYBravosFan10
3 years 6 months ago

I agree on the being a stud at the moment but the dude definitely has it in him. I’d like to see him healthy for a full season and give us some stats that will finally shut these people whining about him not being worth it.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

Unfortunately , alot of these people that have doubts can only pass judgement on what they see in stats and what they have heard about him . Not many of them have actually seen him pitch more than 1 or 2 games . And if I were to just look at what a piece of paper were telling me , I might have some doubts as well . But actually getting to see him pitch every night , you realize that he knows how to pitch . He may not have the most dominating stuff . But he uses what he has and uses it well enough to be productive . I don’t think he has to throw the ball 93-94 MPH to be effective . All he has to do , is pitch to spots , change his speeds and keep batters guessing like he did last year . He doesn’t have to be flashy by striking out a lot of batters to be productive .

Heliosphan
3 years 6 months ago

How about Brennan Boesch, Casey Crosby and a B-level prospect for Jurrjens and a C-level prospect/bad contract?

Jeff
3 years 6 months ago

The only really bad contracts on the Braves right now are Chipper, Derek Lowe’s $10mil leftover, and Diaz (at $2mil)

No real options there.  Chipper at least is worth the contract almost when he’s healthy, and he’s a HOFer who took hometown discounts over his career- I don’t grudge his contract.  Lowe was a panic move 5 years ago, and paying the price now.  Diaz was a cheap deadline deal, but I think he’s done.

That said, those pieces you offered.  Boesch is LH, which is what the Braves don’t need at all, and Crosby- there’s no need for pitching prospects in the Braves system.

I think to get JJ- you’d need to offer a really good SS, mashing corner OF, or good CF prospect, maybe a 3B prospect.  They’re set at 1B, 2B (when Uggla declines I think Pastornicky slides to 2B if he pans out with the bat), C, and RF.   Prado can cover one of the other holes, except SS.  At SS the Braves are hoping Andrelton Simmons pans out with the bat, his glove is ML-ready.

pitching they are set for years both starting and  BP.

Those are the areas of future need potentially.

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

We need a right fielder. Unless you’re suggesting Raburn replace Boesch in RF?

(Don’t even mention Cespedes. I don’t want to get my hopes up.)

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

There is always Delmon Young . You know , that guy your FO tried to throw at us a while back . LOL .

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

Delmon Young would probably be disastrous in RF, even worse than Raburn.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

Hey , we can agree on something . Cool .

playedthegame
3 years 6 months ago

playedthegame, “NO BOESCH!”

NYBravosFan10
3 years 6 months ago

To Mr. Heyman…how do you define “in”? “In” as in had meaningless talks because they aren’t offering enough and too stubborn or dense to take no for an answer or “in” as in actually having an acceptable offer on the table and waiting for the Braves to make up their minds?

Carter2Taylor2Cardenas2Weeks
3 years 6 months ago

don’t worry braves fans…who cares what people on here think?  They all have strong opinions but have never seen the pitchers up for debate actually pitch.  You are going to have to wade through the following typical comments: “He will get lit up in the AL East”…”He is a #3 at best”…”He will be the Philies 6th starter”…”His Fip and BABIP are terrible and he is due to regress”…”(Insert team prospect and the following homer valuation) is too valuable for him and should be untouchable in trade talks”…..it’s a joke..A’s fans just went through it with Gio…one thing I know, the Nats got a legit #2 with a ceiling of a number 1…whoever gets JJ will get a very good pitcher that will make their rotation much better.

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

I saw him pitch both here in Detroit and in Atlanta, so I guess my opinion trumps everyone else’s~

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

You can’t use those 7 games as a rookie in Detroit . He has become a much different pitcher since then .

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

I was being sarcastic.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

We need a sarcasm font .

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

But seriously, everyone overrates Jurrjens. The Tigers fans did it, and the Braves fans are doing it now.  It’s not that he has no value, it’s that he’s not as valuable as you think he is.

Some people actually legitimately think Jurrjens is a better pitcher than Verlander because Jurrjens has a better career ERA!!!

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

As a Braves fan , Verlander>Jurrjens . But Jurrjens still is a top of the rotation guy . If you want a flashy pitcher , Jurrjens is not the pitcher for you . But if you a guy who is just as young as a lot of prospects who enter the league these days and has learned how to pitch with what he has and be productive doing so , then Jurrjens is the guy you want . He’s not gonna wow you . But when healthy , he’ll have around 14+ wins (maybe more on a team with an offense who can score more than a couple of runs a game) and an ERA around 3.25+ .

verlander
3 years 6 months ago

One of the problems is Jurrjens has rarely had a full season of health. He was seen as injury prone in the Tigers’ organization, and he hasn’t exactly escaped that label since going to Atlanta.  I think health should factor in, as far as a player’s value goes. Would you give up the farm for a good player who has a history of injuries? It’s a big risk to take, and I don’t blame some fans for not wanting their team to take that risk.

I also don’t think Jurrjens is worth what the Braves will presumably be asking for.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

The only thing with that is he is only 25 and has only pitched for 4 seasons (not counting the 7 starts his rookie season) . He’s basically getting started . I have heard of guys coming up that had a history of injuries that has been able to shake them off and have decent careers . But I have rarely ever heard of anyone who has had that same problem and was unable at some point recover and decided to just retire . I’m not saying that you are implying that he is heading down that road , retiring . But some people act as though he has no future because of a couple non shoulder or arm injuries . But that’s ok . I know some people are gonna think I’m nuts , but I would personally rather see us trade Hanson instead of Jurrjens . I think Hanson is the one that may end up with a career ending injury .

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

Hanson pitching motion scares me . There was a lot of talk before last year about his delivery and the possibility of a future injury . And then this year he had an injury with his shoulder . If Jurrjens is traded , I would let Hanson build up his value and sell high on him the next offseason and resign Hudson for a few more years .

3 years 6 months ago

A winter where the Yankees don’t sign the best FA available is normally called a “quiet” winter for ’em. You should know…

3 years 6 months ago

i wouldn’t call bidding less than $20mill on darvish “involved”

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

They really just gave CC an extra year. And then picked up some options. As a matter of fact the only new contract on your list is Garcia, and they have had no significant trades. Being in the “sweepstakes” doesn’t count.

The Yankees have been quiet, and that is the smart move right now (what with the insane money/prospects flying around).

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

They really just gave CC an extra year. And then picked up some options. As a matter of fact the only new contract on your list is Garcia, and they have had no significant trades. Being in the “sweepstakes” doesn’t count.

The Yankees have been quiet, and that is the smart move right now (what with the insane money/prospects flying around).

3 years 6 months ago

I agree. But you’ll agree with me if I say everybody knew Sabathia wasn’t going anywhere even though he opted out of his contract. Beside this, I totally understand that the Yankees couldn’t do more than that this off-season.

Jamme Tan
3 years 6 months ago

ACTUALLY HE NEVER OPTED OUT. He was still a Yankee when they signed him to an extension.

Josh Gedert
3 years 6 months ago

DUH

Encarnacion's Parrot
3 years 6 months ago

BLEACHER CREATURE who needs to cut down on the CAPS LOCK

Negative. Everyone has their own idiom or niche, let him have his.

3 years 6 months ago

“$$$ talks”. Well, you have the deepest pocket in the whole league. You just confirmed what I’m saying : he wasn’t going anywhere.

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

I don’t think many said that about Albert. Especially when he went into last year without an extension.

jumpsuitjohnny
3 years 6 months ago

Its sad to me that there is a general consensus that the coliseum is a “craphole”. I’ve been to several stadiums, including polished AT&T park, and can honestly say the greatest experience I had was in the bleachers at the coliseum. The fans all had great personalities, even though I wore a Tigers jersey absolutely nobody nagged me, sure the upper deck was almost all empty, but at the end of the game I had an absolute blast. It just felt more authentic than many other stadiums I’ve been too, its too bad the general public has a stigma against it, cause with an open mind it was actually a great place to see a game. 

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 6 months ago

don’t really get what the deal over Cap Lock is. BC’s a lot smarter than many commenters on this site.

Coollet
3 years 6 months ago

Not a fan of the CAPS LOCK but he did earn my respect with his comments.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 6 months ago

“A winter where the Yankees don’t sign the best FA available is normally called a “quiet” winter for ’em”.
Hasn’t that been the case for the last 3 winters though?   

3 years 6 months ago

And the last 3 winters have been pretty weak in Free Agent market… Can’t deny it.

0bsessions
3 years 6 months ago

To be entirely fair, they went hard after Lee last offseason, so it’s hard to say they weren’t active last year and I still think that Cashman’s full of it when he says he wasn’t interested in Crawford. If Crawford was still on the table when Lee signed with Philly, I’m almost certain he would’ve gone after him and dangled Gardner for a SP.

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

So do you honestly think that he will never again be able to complete a full season ? Cause I seriously doubt that one full season has ruined the rest of his career .

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

no one said that.. but paying in prospects for him to come in and give you 200 innings is a different story

0bsessions
3 years 6 months ago

Nah, just about everyone expected him to stay with the Cardinals until the Winter Meetings when it started coming out that other teams were offering significantly more than the Cardinals. It really didn’t even come into play as a realistic “what-if…” scenario until less than a month ago. People figured that the Cardinals would at least come close to matching any offer made with the Red Sox and Yankees not being involved in the bidding.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 6 months ago

I completely disagree. Crawford just wasn’t a priority. How much more can you really improve on the offense when you have gaping holes in the rotation at that moment and several position players signed to lengthy contracts. I think it’s easy to link the Yanks to just about every free agent but in this case, no. And while Gardner has great value to the Yanks it doesn’t mean that he will bring back the kind of pitcher the Yanks are looking for. 

As for Lee. I never said that they weren’t involved or didn’t go after a top free agent. I just said they didn’t SIGN one.

Also, Cashman, to his credit, goes big or goes home. Rather than going down the pecking order after missing Lee he decided that the other options just weren’t worth the money and that’s smart. The Yanks will never shy away from dropping a huge offer on someone but what they ARE doing (of late) is trying to drop it on the right guy, meaning as sure of a sure thing as possible. Not sure if it’s gun shy after the Burnett and Igawa deals or just an evaluation of what the team needs vs what the options are worth.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 6 months ago

Really?

2009/10:Jon Lackey, Matt Holiday, Jason Bay, Chone Figgins, Aroldis Chapman, Adrian Beltre, Manny Ramirez, De La Rosa, etc

2010/11: Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Paul Konerko, Manny Ramirez, Cliff Lee, etc

2011/12: Wilson, EJackson, Pujols, Fielder, Reyes, Bell, Rollins, etc

Yanks passed on some good players. They just didn’t think they were worth pursuing at their prices with the exception of Lee.

0bsessions
3 years 6 months ago

I never said I thought Crawford was a priority, just that I think it was bunk Cashman was never interested. On his own, Gardner’s not going to get an ace, but I think it’s a very reasonable assumption the Yankees could’ve dangled him for a viable starter and signing Crawford and trading Gardner (At what likely may have been the absolute peak of his value), may have gotten them something good. Off the top of my head, a really good fit would’ve been something like Gardner and some MiLB pieces for Latos, Cahill, Jiminez or a multitude of others that would slot in as a #2 on their 2011 staff. Including Gardner while replacing him with Crawford would (In theory at the time and without using the hindsight of Crawford’s poor 2011) give the Yankees a solid number two starter (Which is what they really needed and still need) without having to gut their farm system. I have to imagine pairing Gardner with Brackman and another decent prospect or two would’ve been able to get them something good and I have to believe Cashman would’ve considered that as the best option after the Lee pursuit failed to pan out.

0bsessions
3 years 6 months ago

I wouldn’t say it was a matter of “not worth pursuing” so much as not fitting in with their roster needs. Chapman and Lackey were the only two players between 09 and 10  that really MAY have fit (And Crawford to an extent from my previous statements).

2011 makes less sense to me considering I could see Wilson or Buehrle both being decent fits for them and neither of their prices got that absolutely outrageous.

LifeLongYankeeFan
3 years 6 months ago

They didn’t sign anyone but they made that trade 2 winters ago for Granderson great deal for them hes cheap and had a monster year this past season

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

OK . Then to be fair , iit would be just as much a gamble for both sides if Jurrjens was traded for a prospect as neither side would be %100 sure of what they are getting . The only difference is Jurrjens has proven that he can produce at the ML level , where as the prospect would be unproven . The only downside for Jurrjens would be not knowing if he could once again pitch a full season . But seeing how he has done it before , the safe bet would be that he could do it again . And you never know how any prospect will do once they get to the ML level . So it would be a fair assumption that it would be a gamble for either side .

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

It’s also tough to justify trading a proven starting pitcher for a prospect that you HOPE will produce at the ML level . It is a gamble for either side . But at least Jurrjens has proven that he can produce at this level . You never know what you are gonna get from any prospect .

bravesdude
3 years 6 months ago

I’m fine with Wren standing pat on what he is asking for Jurrjens . If he doesn’t get a good return for him , then keep him . The braves have 8 starting pitchers on the roster right now . Let JJ build his value up by proving that last year was no fluke , and then sell high on him by the trade deadline . Otherwise , cut your losses with him and trade him for whatever you can get for him next offseason . There is no reason to block younger and more cost controlled pitchers that are waiting to take his spot .

blueandwhite89
3 years 6 months ago

Thats over analysing. He’ll give up his walks, but as long as he keeps the hits down (which he always does) he shouldn’t have too many baserunner isues.