NL Central Notes: Madson, Wood, Miller

The Reds signed Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman for $30.25MM on this date in 2010. The 23-year-old has a 3.27 ERA with 12.8 K/9 and 6.5 BB/9 through 63 1/3 innings in parts of two seasons with Cincinnati. He figures to join lefties Bill Bray and Sean Marshall in the Reds' revamped bullpen this year…


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68 Comments on "NL Central Notes: Madson, Wood, Miller"


inleylandwetrust
3 years 7 months ago

Tigers are fallbacks? Haven’t heard anything about that…Dotel, Wood, Benoit, Valverde would be filthy though.

Joe
3 years 7 months ago

Dusty and Walt have stated they plan to try Chapman in the rotation.. dunno why people are INSISTING that he will be in the pen.

3 years 7 months ago

Yep Joe, Marshall will take the 8th, Bray is already the LOOGY, dont really need another lefty in middle relief, especially one making that much money. Chapman has been starting in AFL games, and as you have said, Both Walt and Dusty have said in no uncertain terms he will start. I think Spring training will determine which of Chapman and Bailey will go “north”, but even if its not Chapman he will start in LOU not come out of the pen in CIN. How can someone who covers the game not know this?

Indy1
3 years 7 months ago

I believe Bailey is out of options isn’t he?  If that’s the case I would say he is definitely “going north”.

TimotheusATL
3 years 7 months ago

still don’t see how law can equate madson and papelbon at all at this stage in their respective careers.

all papelbon has ever done is close, and he’s got a years-long track record of doing it pretty darn well. and, let’s face it, track records pay a lot more than speculative “can he do it for a long time?” contracts.

madson has been a dominant 8th inning guy — he had one good year as a closer, but before then, was widely regarded as a guy who couldn’t thrive in the 9th. he changed that last year, yet was going to get the same money? doubt it.

not saying that law’s wrong that the madson deal is a great one for the reds, but give madson one more year of excellent closing and i bet he gets his years/money without a problem. it’s really the smartest move for both sides.

and, as a braves fan, i’m really not enjoying the prospect of facing papelbon for 4-5 years.

Lunchbox45
3 years 7 months ago

you missed the point. 

johnsilver
3 years 7 months ago

The point as far as salary was concerned, yes. The poster had a legitimate point in the fact Papelbon probably will be a beast for at least 3 years in the NL and I echo his fears (if he is a ATL fan) that Paps may indeed “own” the NL for quite some time.

Salary aside, cause it was not that bad on a per year basis as compared to what Rivera gets. Just 4 years at a shot in his case.

TimotheusATL
3 years 7 months ago

the papelbon contract won’t bury the phillies. the howard contract is much more of an albatross at this stage.

TimotheusATL
3 years 7 months ago

i had a whole bunch of thoughts come to mind when i read your first sentence, expecting more. as no more was written by you to prove how i “missed the point” i will simply respond with “nuh uh!”

so there.

3 years 7 months ago

Frankly, I side with Law – and I’m a Braves fan. What’s been said about PHI is that they’re too old. And they’ve done nothing this off-season to get any younger. This reach for Papelbon, while finally giving them that consistent closer they’ve tried to get from Lidge, Contreras, and Madson the last few years – it also hinders them in the long run. They still have Rollins at SS and rather than get another good SP, they’re slotting in Joe Blanton (???) I like Vance Worley, but it’s hard to have an opinion of him without a full year’s worth of service. We’ll see if PHI can re-sign Cole Hamels after 2012 – my opinion: nope. And they went out and got Jim Thome to replace Howard much of 2012…I guess one injury-plagued 1B is not enough. I bet they’re wishing for a deeper farm system right about now. 

Where in the world is Phillippe Aumont?

FillyPhan
3 years 7 months ago

Thome was not picked up to replace Howard. The talks of Thome playing 1st is just so he can get some more at bats than just off the bench 5 times a week. Neither thome nor phillies management play on playing him a 1st more than once a week or so.

They have everyone under contract this year. The spots where they could get younger they did. LF= Raul is replaced by JMJ. SS outside of Reyes the Phillies would have to take a huge drop in off and def if they wanted to go younger without Rollins. Rollins will move to 3b in the back half of his contract and phillies will bring up Galvis.

You can’t just decide to get younger and forget about all the contracts you still have signed.

TimotheusATL
3 years 7 months ago

as i said above, the papelbon contract itself will not hinder the phillies from doing anything. they should be more worried about howard’s.

nkyredsfan
3 years 7 months ago

I love how this reporter does his homework. Chapman is projected to perhaps start this year, especially now that Wood is gone, which gives them one less in the race to be in the starting rotation.

Lunchbox45
3 years 7 months ago

not really set in stone.. its not him ‘not doing his homework’

he had a 7.4 bb/9 last year, its going to take a bit of convincing during spring training

jammin502
3 years 7 months ago

From what I heard Chapman was going to compete for a starters job and if he isn’t ready, he was going to the minors to get ready.  I don’t think the bullpen is even an option for him this year.

bmk92
3 years 7 months ago

you’re right.  there is no need for him to be in the pen. at all, really.  he’ll start in louisville and hopefully will move into the rotation at some point this season.  to be honest, that’s the kicker in these two relief deals is that it finally allows chapman to get back where he belongs

3 years 7 months ago

Reds are paying Madson only 6 M in 2012 with a 11 M option for 2013 or a 2.5 M buy out. BEST deal of the entire offseason. Top 3 bullpen in MLB now

Madson
Marshall
Bray
Masset
Arredondo
Ondrusek
LeCure

Lunchbox45
3 years 7 months ago

very nice deal, but as it stands not a top 3 bullpen.

camisadelgolf
3 years 7 months ago

I think he meant top-3 in height.  If Aroldis Chapman returns to the bullpen, Bill Bray would be the 6th-tallest member of the bullpen at 6’3″.

Andrew Wurth
3 years 7 months ago

mark it down, Shelby Miller will be the next dominant ace in the Cards rotation.

Kendall Adkins
3 years 7 months ago

I will be a while before he takes that spot from Wainwright. I would say you’re probably right though. 

bacboris
3 years 7 months ago

Are you offering odds? Without Duncan, I think the Vodoo Magic of Cardinals pitchers is going to be a thing of the past.

As for Miller himself, with such a huge ego and resistance to using more of his secondary pitches there may be a real rude awakening when he faces a good amount of MLB level hitters.

3 years 7 months ago

You obviously aren’t that familiar with Shelby Miller.  The kid is much more than a dominant fastball.  That is why he has blazed through every level of baseball he has played to this point. 

3 years 7 months ago

Hey, Keith Law is trashing Philly again, what a shocker.  

Lunchbox45
3 years 7 months ago

well, its kinda hard not too. no?

china_dave
3 years 7 months ago

“no”

moondog45
3 years 7 months ago

Still remember Law going on CSN Philly in 2009 smugly telling everyone who would listen how Chad Billingsley would dominate the Philly in the playoffs. Billingsley got hammered twice.

silverence
3 years 7 months ago

No. Sorry, is still being the best team in the NL not enough for you?

Lunchbox45
3 years 7 months ago

every great power falls apart, raj is just speeding up the process

3 years 7 months ago

No real shocker, Keith Law is trash

jwick18
3 years 7 months ago

so madison could not find a job and had to take less money and thats the phillies fault how

3 years 7 months ago

They way overspent for Papeplbon prematurely. They closed doors that didn’t need to be closed.

FillyPhan
3 years 7 months ago

More like they decided not to play Boras’ game. I’m happy we went out and got a guy instead of letting the market dictate. Because we all know when you have Boras as an agent and try to wait it out, there is a good chance you will end up overpaying. I would much rather overpay papelbon upfront and wait through an unknown market and than overpay for Madson, a guy who hasnt even closed for a full year.

It only seems foolish now, bc the unlikely event happened that Boras lost out in a deal.

0bsessions
3 years 7 months ago

Or you could go option C, wait for the market to establish itself and then get him later.

Everyone knew going in that the market for closers was extremely flooded this year and everyone knew there would be a change to the CBA soon (And everyone also knew there would be something about compensation for relievers).

The writing was all on the wall. Even I, someone with no experience managing a baseball club, was able to foresee the fact that Madson’s AAV wouldn’t top ten million (I’ve been calling that since the offseason started). Amaro basically Werth’d himself with Papelbon. He dramatically overpaid for an overrated “need” for his team and moved too quickly to the point it cost them a draft pick. Had he waited a week, he’d have two first round picks instead of one and if he’d waited a month, he probably would have gotten Papelbon for at least one less guaranteed year and a whole lot less total dollars.

One can acknowledge that Papelbon is a great closer and be happy to have him while at the same time acknowledging that Amaro and the Phillies completely screwed the pooch on this one. The move was extremely questionable when it was made and now it’s downright awful to look at in hindsight with how the rest of the offseason has gone.

FillyPhan
3 years 7 months ago

Waiting could have seen Papelbon sign with another team, which would then give Madson (a closer with less than a season at closer) leverage bc of the phillies need for a closer. No thank you I would rather not tango with Boras when he has the leverage. Might have been alittle much, but I wouldn’t have wanted it handled any other way.

silverence
3 years 7 months ago

This.

jwick18
3 years 7 months ago

this is some spin to makw boras not look like the guy that cost madison 4/44 or whatever philly offered. glad they over paid though. anything that hurts them down the road im ok with

3 years 7 months ago

stop calling him madison

Beavis De Beppo
3 years 7 months ago

Wasn’t Chappy a starter in Koo-Bah?  Methinks he was.  And I doubt we would see many 105mph heaters if they can manage to stretch him out to 6 innings.  But who knows.  The guy obviously can’t go 1-2 innings 3 days in a row.  Maybe he can handle 6 innings when it’s followed up with 4 or 5 days off.

3 years 7 months ago

rather have papelpon as my closer. philly is rolling in cash right now who cares what theyre paying paps

pennypincher
3 years 7 months ago

Hamels is FA next year and the core of the Phils are getting old.  Not as bad as say, New York, but if I’m thinking correctly Phillies beat out Yankees as the oldest team in the majors sometime last season or spring training.

There are so many ways to spend money besides 10 mil a year on a reliever.  They really do grow on trees.  

0bsessions
3 years 7 months ago

In a vacuum sure, but the way it went down? Madson on a one year deal at under $10MM > than Papelbon on a four year deal (With a fifth easily hit option) at over $50MM.

Papelbon’s better than Madson, but not so much better that the Phillies should’ve paid what they did. The Yankees can fix their mistakes by continuing to throw money at them. The Phillies, contrary to the belief of a large subset of their fans due to the recent spending spree, do not have nearly the revenue stream the Yankees have. The Phillies are going to have a fantastic team for a couple of years, but they’re going to be badly hamstrung soon.

Think of it this way, a lot of Philly fans are going to be a lot less enamored in this deal when Hamels walks because the Phillies can’t afford him.

FillyPhan
3 years 7 months ago

We have quite a few contracts coming off the books at the end of the season and will have no problem resigning him. They are simply waiting until the season starts so that it would go towards this years Luxury tax.

cacavolante
3 years 7 months ago

with all due respect to keith law it didnt take anyone else signing a contract of any value to make papelbons deal look comical.

FillyPhan
3 years 7 months ago

Big talk from Keith Law. Now wouldn’t it be comical if Madson somehow doesn’t pass the physical. Now THAT would be comical

3 years 7 months ago

Mlb trade rumors is a joke of a site, that does nothing more than copy news from other more reliable sources, and twist it to their liking. Biased opinions, and angry no brain fans post drivel about this and that, half of witch is not even true. People, dont waist your time on this joke site, go get your news form a REAL trustworthy source.

jammin502
3 years 7 months ago

Hopefully you don’t start a more trustworthy site, but if you do, please work on your spelling!

FillyPhan
3 years 7 months ago

I hate to break it to you, but that is every news site you’re ever going to go to. Do you think ESPN is going to get EVERY interview and get EVERY commentary. Wake up, reporters use other’s information, it’s essential.

BTW its which, waste and from. You have the internet, look up it if you’re illiterate (That means you can’t read or write)

3 years 7 months ago

I see fans are busting on your spelling, however it’s your use of grammar that is terrble! The only thing you got right was ” more reliable sources, and twist it to their liking. ” The rest however was totally wrong! Your third grade teach currently should be ashamed!

Witch is wrong and so is waist!

What I take offense to the most is Biased opinions, and angry no brain fans post drivel about this and that! I mean you posted on this site and you’re a hypocrite because what you just posted is angry no brain drivel. So essentially you’re the pot calling the kettle black. You give all pots out there a bad name!

PS Who does your comedy material, because if it’s you, we all can tell!

Beavis De Beppo
3 years 7 months ago

*terrible*  Too many words = Vulnerable to mistakes of your own.

feathers
3 years 7 months ago

This site is based and reliant upon other sites/sources for information and has never once denied it. You sound like a very bitter person that perhaps was turned down as a writer/columnist on here.

Mike1L
3 years 7 months ago

Law is engaging in easy hindsight.  Madson wasn’t going to re-sign with the Phillies for what he ended up taking from the Reds.  The Cincy deal only came about because Boras ran out of dance partners.  As to Philly overpaying for Papelbon, sure, but that was what the market was at the time the deal was made-let’s not forget Boras wasn’t satisfied with $44M over four years for Madson.  If those were the top targets (and realistically, Oakland engaging in a fire-sale hadn’t been anticipated), that was the price. 

feathers
3 years 7 months ago

Whether or not he himself believes it, the best thing for Shelby Miller is to go down to the minors after ST. He has never thrown 1 pitch above AA and no matter his talent, he needs innings maturity as well as age maturity. 

Gunner65
3 years 7 months ago

Lets see whats wrong with this news IMO:

1. The plan for Chapman is NOT to be in the pen. John Fay has continually provided comments from Reds sources that AC will compete for a spot in the rotation and if he does not make one of the starting 5 he will go to Louisville to continue developing his 3rd pitch (change up)

2. Keith Law: Never been a fan of his analysis. Madson is the “deal of the off season”? Nah. While it does fill a need for the Reds and at a good price, I’d hardly label it the way he did nor call the Phillies losers. Paps is a great closer by just about any metric and the numbers he put up were in arguably the best division in baseball. He is making a $1M less in 2012 then he was paid last season & will make only $1M more in each year after for the length of the contract. I really see no over pay here. In the end, Law is the one looking comical by not looking into the details of the contract IMO. 

3 years 7 months ago

Paps is still overpaid just because of his position.  No reliever (closer or not) will ever be worth $15mil per season.  I mean, do you know who else you could have for $15mil per season?  Jose Bautista makes less (underpaid I know), Josh Beckett makes roughly that much, Adrian Beltre makes a tad bit more, CJ Wilson makes a bit more, Tim Hudson and Chris Carpenter make way less.  I know they aren’t perfect comparisons because some of these are extensions or coming after injuries, but the point is if the teams were a bunch of buddies showing each other what they bought for their $15mil, they’re showing off their MVP and Cy Young candidates while the Phils kid has a guy (even if he is the best closer) that’s only going to pitch 80 innings a year at the absolute most.

And yes there are plenty of examples of guys who make that much or more that are less worth it than Paps, but most of them are overpaid because they’ve failed to live up to their hype / potential.  Paps is one of only a few cases where a guy’s overpaid simply because of how little he actually sees the field.

FillyPhan
3 years 7 months ago

You know who else makes about the same AJ Burnett. Lets compare now.

I can’t compare contracts. It depends on who is available that season. If he is staying with the team or not. Whether the player hits FA. Too many factors to compare anyones contract to another so why don’ you stop.

3 years 7 months ago

On AJ Burnett, all that proves is that there’s more than one baseball player being paid too much money.

On the other point, in a sense you’re right.  There are a lot of factors involved.  But to say we can’t compare contracts at all is absurd.  They should, in theory, be payed relative to the value they bring to a team’s chances of winning.  And as a closer, Papelbon is getting paid way too much relative to how much more value players at other positions bring and the money they make.

Gunner65
3 years 7 months ago

He never makes $15M per season. He makes $11M next season and $13M each of the following seasons. So that kind of weakens your premise to start with.

Is $13M to much for a closer? For most teams … yes. But for big market teams, they can afford it. As far as the players they “could” have for the same money:

– As you said, comparisons are apples and oranges … we’re talking about closers, so other situations/positions are irrelevant to the discussion. What they “could” have for the same money is also irrelevant. When players negotiate or go to arb with teams, they don’t base their worth on other positions. They use comparable players at their position as the basis of their value.

– As an example, the Reds paid Cordero an insane contract($12M per) 4 years ago. Do you really think Pap or any other closer who has a better “sustained” track record and peripheral metrics than Coco is going to accept less? When something like that happens, it sets the market for all following free agents. While supply and demand can affect the cost of an individual player on an occasion, in most cases the top players are still going to get top dollar. 

Notice I put quotes around “sustained” … its because I am assuming someone will point to Madson’s deal as an argument against my Cordero example. But, they are not similar because Madson has only been a closer for 4 months of last season. So his lack of a sustained track record reduces his value and makes his $8.5M contract seem like an appropriate level of compensation.

3 years 7 months ago

You’re right on the numbers.  For some reason I thought it was 4/$60.  Not nearly as overpaid as I was thinking before, but I still stand by him being paid too much for what he brings to the team.

As for the deal not hurting the Phillies, I agree.  He’s overpaid, but huge market teams can afford to overpay players.  The player is still overpaid, but it’s not as bad for the team paying them because they’ve got more money than they know what to do with.

And I disagree about comparisons to other positions being irrelevant.  His salary isn’t based on what other position players do, but as the team paying it, money’s money.  If I have $13mil to spend, I’d spend it on an impact position player over a reliever every time.  I acknowledge it’s not a perfect comparison because of team needs when contracts are given (Phils didn’t need a position player and there weren’t any available for that price), but this is still the way I perceive things.

Fair point about Cordero and his contract.  Once that precedent is set, everyone’s screwed.  It’s fair in the sense that Pap is getting paid more because he’s better than Coco was, but really I still just see it as they’re (closers) getting paid too much.

Gunner65
3 years 7 months ago

I can see your point on how other positions relate to what a team would be able to spend elsewhere. So in that case is has merit, but my original conclusion was that the deal, labeled as a loser & seems comical by Law, was a vast overstatement by him. Its sounded more like hyperbole than a simple evaluation. I also go back to large market teams, they can afford to pay top dollar for a top player because they have the resources to do so while still being able to spend your $15M number for players at other positions.   

Phillies_Aces35
3 years 7 months ago

I don’t really understand how overpaying for a year on a closer makes the Phillies the “losers” of the off season, but whatever Keith Law needs to sell a few more insider passes, more power to him.

3 years 7 months ago

Agreed.  I don’t believe you should pick offseason winners and losers based on what you “think” might happen as a result several years from now.  Who got better, who got worse, who didn’t improve like they needed to?  That’s how I’d pick anyway.

Wrek305
3 years 7 months ago

Tigers would be a bad choice for Wood. Phillies would be a good fit or the Rangers since he’s from Texas. He could be the set up guy for Nathan. Feliz should not go to the rotation.  I hope it works out for them, they are still the team to beat. They are actually better then Anaheim as well just because they signed Pujols doesn’t make the Angels automatically better his best years are behind him and the Cardinals could not have made a better choice not re-signing him. They are one of the best if not the best Organization in all of baseball for a reason. Angels will likely be the Wild Card. Another thing to consider is CJ Wilson in winless in the postseason. Even if Anaheim makes the playoffs CJ Wilson is damn near a guaranteed loss and theirs no guarantee Weaver has another great season either. Santana will be a one and done pitcher. He will probably finish about 10-10 this year. Wood will sign with the Cubs for 1 yr at a time from this point forward til he retires. Which could be 4-5 yrs from now depending on injuries.

camisadelgolf
3 years 7 months ago

Whether you’re Dusty Baker, Tony LaRussa, or anyone else, as long as you’re managing Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, your best pitchers are going to require surgery with those disgusting mechanics.  I’ll simplify this for you . . .

Chapman + 92 MPH slider = Tommy John

3 years 7 months ago

Saying it 1 million times doesnt make it true. Chapman at best will be a fifth starter, and has what looks to be a very good bullpen backing him up. Wood and Prior (and it is very debatable that their injuries were Dustys fault) were 1/2 in that rotation and had a suspect bullpen and Dusty and the Cubs rode them to the NLCS. This situation is entirely different. If there is any pitcher whose innings will be pushed its Latos. He figures to slot in the 2, and has never thrown 200 innings. Chapman will get pulled for a good reliever at or before 100 pitches and will likely be skipped in the rotation at least twice.

PaperLions
3 years 7 months ago

Chapman has options left (4 more years worth), he can’t get claimed going to the minors.

0bsessions
3 years 7 months ago

Realistically, had they waited and let the market be dictated by someone who wasn’t going to dramatically overpay for a reliever, they probably could’ve gotten Madson on a three year deal with a fourth year option. This is a situation where hindsight barely comes in to play as the move was derided up and down the minute the ink was dry.

Lunchbox45
3 years 7 months ago

show your work