Quick Hits: Mariners, Indians, Strasburg

Some afternoon links for a slow-moving Sunday…

  • The Mariners currently project as a 75-win team, writes Dave Cameron of the U.S.S. Mariner and Fangraphs. Cameron writes that assuming the team still has $15MM to spend, they could push themselves into the .500 range for the 2012 season. He looks at remaining free agents and presents three speculative offseason scenarios — one of which involves Prince Fielder.
  • Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer answers questions from Indians fans surrounding Matt LaPorta's trade value, potential free agent signings, Shelley Duncan's roster status, the health of Grady Sizemore, and more in this mailbag piece.
  • Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com writes that Nationals fans should get used to the conservative approach for Stephen Strasburg, speculating an innings limit of 170 (based on how the team handled Jordan Zimmermann last year). He goes on to say that while GM Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Johnson may get creative to allow him to pitch into early September, they're both "big picture guys" who would probably shut Strasburg down before late September even things broke right and Washington reached the playoffs.


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93 Comments on "Quick Hits: Mariners, Indians, Strasburg"


wishtheywouldovrpyforfreeagnts
3 years 7 months ago

Why not rest him more in the first few months then?

MetsEventually
3 years 7 months ago

Angels and Rangers are too good to have the M’s win anywhere near 75

3 years 7 months ago

I´ll laugh in 3 years when Pujols is a 260/ 15HR guy earning 25 millions a year… Will be great!

3 years 7 months ago

As much as I like how that sounds, you should probably not count on that happening.

3 years 7 months ago

Yeah, because that’s the only two teams the M’s will play in there 163 game schedule…

MadisonMariner
3 years 7 months ago

You do know that the AL West teams play other teams, too, right?

75 wins is about right, but there’s still some offseason left.  I expect that if the M’s miss out on Fielder(which I kind of hope they do), they’ll pursue a platoon LF(to platoon with Casper Wells), try to do a dump trade of Chone Figgins and acquire someone else to play 3B, and perhaps get another RP.

With one of Danny Hultzen or James Paxton set to debut in 2012, the rotation should be really good and the team defense should be good to great.  Getting the offense to only slightly below league average would be a great achievement, and if they do, I project 76-78 wins, in all likelihood.  :)

3 years 7 months ago

The M´s will sign Prince Fielder, in 2012 they´ll be the third place in the AL WEST, but in 2013, with Hultzen, Paxton, Nick Franklin and lots of money, (Olivo, Ichiro,Vargas, League) they could sign David Wright! Imagine:

Ichiro (resigned, 5 millions or something)
Ackley
Wright (4 years, 60 millions)
Fielder
Smoak
Nick Franklin
Guti
Wells/Robinson/Catricala/Carp
Jaso

Felix-Pineda-Hultzen-Paxton-Iwakuma/Walker/Jose Campos/Erasmo Ramírez

Pure speculation, but sounds great to me…

PushDown
3 years 7 months ago

Great lineup. But they’re still in the same division as the Angels and Rangers. 

Daniel Lee
3 years 7 months ago

lol wow ive come across so many delusional mariner fans. first of all, ichiro gona cost a LOT more than 5 million. and wrights gona cost a LOT more than $60 mil (if he for some odd reason would ever go to seattle in the first place). after playing in citifield why the heck would he want to go to an even worse ball park with a team just as bad. but even if that lineup miraculously comes true, that still isnt better than the rangers lineup and arguably not even better than the angels lineup. and to say the mariners have a top 5 rotation in 2013? geez man. hultzen and paxton are being projected by a lot of people to be career #3 starters.

hallwagner
3 years 7 months ago

i think an ingenious solution to limit strasburgs innings while still allowing him to pitch in sept and hopefully october would be to limit his 1st half starts to 5 innings each max. basically we could just have stras pitch 5 and have gorzelanny or detwiler finish it off, because neither of them will actually be in the rotation, but could easily go 4-5 innings every 5th day as a long man. i know we could always just replace him in the rotation with detwiler or gorzelanny, but you cant TRULY replace stras in the rotation and i think it would really damage the possibility of going deep in a playoff run (if at all)

start_wearing_purple
start_wearing_purple
3 years 7 months ago

I agree, that’s a good solution. I’d be surprised if the Nats don’t limit the number of pitches he throws early in the season. Basically keep him on a 60-75 pitch limit for April, raise it slightly for May, then evaluate.

slider32
3 years 7 months ago

The Mariners should take the cue from Billy Beane and trade King Felix for the future. There is no way they can compete with the Angels and Rangers in the next 3 years.

MaineSox
3 years 7 months ago

 I disagree, if they decided to trade him next off-season the package would only be marginally weaker (if at all) and they would get an extra year of the fans he draws to the park.  You could even make a pretty good case that they could wait two years and not get significantly less for him.

Lunchbox45
3 years 7 months ago

i agree. there’s only so much a team can give up for him..

the only thing of course is if his performance slips or gets injured. 

MaineSox
3 years 7 months ago

True, there’s always a chance that his performance slips and they wouldn’t be able to get nearly as much for him.  But I think the risk is relatively minimal with a guy with as much talent as Felix.

dirty_water_fan
3 years 7 months ago

Off topic, does anyone know what dice-k’s status is?

EdinsonPickle
3 years 7 months ago

I believe he’s out until the middle of the season as he’s recovering from TJ surgery. Maybe he comes back in July or August.

Lyndsey Stuart
3 years 7 months ago

Overrated

Leonard Washington
3 years 7 months ago

In order to be over rated you need to be thought highly of to begin with. Seeing as the hype behind him left after season one with the Sox I don’t think overrated is the word for him. At this point under rated makes more sense. I mean in reality he is a very solid #5 when healthy and half this forum wouldn’t even give him credit for that so yeah under rated.

Guest
3 years 7 months ago

Never thought I’d see the day where a fan would consider an athlete “under-rated” who cost $100mm and will have only played 50% of the time for the duration of the contract.  

Leonard Washington
3 years 7 months ago

Contracts arn’t the determining factor in an overrated/underrated conversation. A posting fee is the only thing that made that contract an overpay. 10M a season isn’t an overpay but like I said his pre-MLB hype had him overrated, but since then its been the opposite. Dice-K came into the league on a big contract (Because of a posting fee) and his resume out in Japan had him severly overrated. Now that he has been in the league for some years, purely from a performance vs. perception standpoint he is very underrated. Most people think that when he is healthy he is a batting practice pitcher when in fact he is a solid #5 so contract aside (Irrelevant) he is still much better than what people generally think, thus he is under rated.

MetsMagic
3 years 7 months ago

It’s funny to me that Davey Johnson is putting the 23 year old Strasburg on an innings limit. He let Doc Gooden pitch 250 innings after his injured 22 season, which came after he had pitched over 200 since his age 19 season.

I wonder what made these pitchers so fragile? I bet Nolan Ryan was beyond pissed that the 24 year old Derek Holland had “only” 200 innings. 

hallwagner
3 years 7 months ago

the game has changed a lot since the mid-80’s. honestly i think davey does want him 2 pitch a full season, but he would get fired if he did so

CC
3 years 7 months ago

I agree so much. I hate these stupid limits like 100 pitchs in a game is crazy and stuff like that. Other pitchers could easily throw over 150 and do you see all of them with terrible arm problems??? No!!!!!¡

muskyfish
3 years 7 months ago

While I agree that it had gotten to a point where the coddling had gone too far, too often people say “oh, yeah, it really hurt (insert HOF pitcher here)!!!” But how many guys do you NOT know about because they were pushed to their physical limits and didn’t have the arm for it? 

Also, keep in mind that without the advanced scouting reports and tools, a pitcher could lose a little something back in the day and it wasn’t the end of the world. There isn’t as much room for error in today’s game. 

melonis_rex
3 years 7 months ago

This. Also: pitchers have to throw harder nowadays to keep up with the advanced training (advanced technology and equipment) that hitters have. 

For every Nolan Ryan/HOF story, there’s probably a Mark Prior story. 

roberty
3 years 7 months ago

Yeah the Nationals should handle Strasburg with kid gloves.  It would suck if he had to get TJ surgery of something….

hallwagner
3 years 7 months ago

*again

3 years 7 months ago

Ok. People. I am NOT GOING TO SAY the mariners are a playoff team. They are NOT. But to completely avoid the fact we have some promising pitching, we were in the AL west race during June last season, and have money coming off the books would be bad.

Yes I said bad. (Yes, this needs its own paragraph!)

Wasn’t it the mariners who won 2 of 3 against the phillies? Obviously the phillies are a better team, but this is a good indication of how crazy this game can be. It is why it is MY FAVORITE.

CC
3 years 7 months ago

Winning a 3 game series doesnt mean much in 162 games

Rangersfan32
3 years 7 months ago

Everyone has “promising pitching”. Look at the Angels new rotation. Look at Texas. Other than Texas featuring one of the best current bullpens, they have (soon to be) Darvish, Lewis, Holland, Harrison, and Feliz in their rotation. You have 4 guys in there with potential to be good 2’s or better. Then you have Perez, Ramirez and Ross in the upper minors who all project to be 3’s or better (with Perez having the ceiling of a Johan Santana type ace).

Daniel Lee
3 years 7 months ago

bottom line is the rangers are still far better and the angels got much better this offseason. the mariners have done nothing. mentioning the mariners winning a series from the phillies in the regular season to support your case that anything can happen in that division over 162 games is pretty crazy

JonBoyd
3 years 7 months ago

Strasburg would be shut down even if the nats make the playoffs because they’re looking at the big picture? A world championship is the big picture!

3 years 7 months ago

Davey should pitch Strausburg with normal pitch count limits in April/May.  Maybe consider skipping a start or two early in the season with the rain delays and what not.   Then spot start Gorzelanny the rest of the way.  That should get Strausburg into Sept.

LUWahooNatFan
3 years 7 months ago

I expect Strasburg to have around the number of innings Zimmermann had this past year

Even with Strasburg getting shutdown the Nationals could have a rotation that looks like Gio-Zimm-Wang-Lannan-Detwiler for the last month or so. 

muskyfish
3 years 7 months ago

Why not just let Stras take it easy in spring and then have him start in Triple-A for two months? Not only can you cut off a bunch of innings, he can still work on things that will make him even better, and couldn’t you even back his clock off another year? 

hallwagner
3 years 7 months ago

if strasburg got any better than he showed at the end of last year i think it would be criminally unfair. the guy comes back from tj and doesn’t give up a walk until his 5th and final start back (2 walks in that start). also only 4 earned runs in 24 innings of work for a 1.50 ERA. i don’t really think there’s anything else for him to work on

Daniel Lee
3 years 7 months ago

throwing innings in triple a still count towards innings thrown. wouldnt make sense. if they let him throw in triple a they might as well throw him in the majors and get good production out of him. and the nationals dont have to worry about slowing the clock. theyre not the rays who have a 40 million dollar payroll

3 years 6 months ago

Here’s a thought on how to limit Strasburg.  Go with a 6 man rotation!  Skip some of his starts when days off allow it!  

start_wearing_purple
start_wearing_purple
3 years 7 months ago

Big picture. The guy is coming off of TJ surgery, trying to get 250 innings out of him would be a huge mistake.

hallwagner
3 years 7 months ago

we could limit his innings in the 1st half, like allow him to only go 5 innings a start. it would tax the bullpen, yes, but once the rosters expands to 40 men it would basically take care of itself

Lastings
3 years 7 months ago

I know the new way of protecting young talented pitchers is by means of setting an innings limit, but when you think about it; shouldn’t they limit their pitch count?

slider32
3 years 7 months ago

I would start him slow only allowing him to go 5 innings in April, May, and June, then he will have enough innings left for the remainder of the season.

redsx968
3 years 7 months ago

I don’t see the rush in having strasburg pitch late into September. First of all, I only see the nats making the playoffs with another bat, namely prince fielder. I that case, their window to win is not closed after this season. This is a team on the rise. So I would understand if they capped strasburg. No reason to compromise the future to try to be competitive in a wild card scenario

melonis_rex
3 years 7 months ago

Those things are entirely situational. My guess is, the 170 inning regular season limit allows for them to get playoff IP if necessary. But it is a big picture move. 

3 years 7 months ago

Yeah, it´s ridiculous, i know, but sounds good at least…

Rangersfan32
3 years 7 months ago

My favorite part is the fact that this guy thinks Fielder and Wright would be interested in playing for the Mariners when there are multiple teams that will be better destinations for them (yes, the Fielder market is slow now, but if his price goes down to a range the Mariners could afford, you can bet there will be plenty of other teams back in on him too).

3 years 7 months ago

Mariners and .500 don’t belong in the same sentence.

3 years 7 months ago

Their pitching is probably Top 5 in the majors, they´ll find ways to win 75 games, Prince Fielder will help too…

start_wearing_purple
start_wearing_purple
3 years 7 months ago

…why tell me? I have a varying level of interest in every team but the Mariners are pretty low on the list.

Triple Hawpes Brewed
3 years 7 months ago

Says the Rangers fan whose team was an afterthought for decades

Rusty_Arcadia
3 years 7 months ago

Right! Either the Mariners or the A’s will set a franchise record for number of times being swept in a season in 2012. 

Having to play the Rangers and Angels that many times is going to be brutal for those two teams.

3 years 7 months ago

It’s certainly possible for him to regress that far, I wouldn’t say likely though.

3 years 7 months ago

Fielder is 27, Pujols is 31 (maybe more), and he won´t be the same ever, he´ll be 2 years at his elite level, then 2 years as an above avg player, then 6 years as an overpaid DH, like A-Rod exactly…

Rangersfan32
3 years 7 months ago

Crazier things have happened.

SouthPawRyno
3 years 7 months ago

not really.. First half is up until the all-star break. and the rosters expand in september.. over-using the relievers before the all-star break would not be helped by a couple of innings off in september.

EdinsonPickle
3 years 7 months ago

See 2011 Braves: Kimbrel, O’Flaherty, and Venters.

3 years 7 months ago

Texas, Detroit, Washington and Arizona pitching is clearly worse than Seattle´s, LAA and Tampa are similar, SF and Phillies are better right now…

3 years 7 months ago

I said for 2013! Not last year… Last year Hultzen , Paxton , Taijuan Walker and Iwakuma didn´t pitch, Pineda was in his rookie year…

Rusty_Arcadia
3 years 7 months ago

King Felix should bring a nice package of prospects and maybe even one young Major League ready talent. Even if the M’s signed Fielder, they still wouldn’t be a contender. I don’t see a good reason to spend the money trying to patch together a 75-80 win team. That still wouldn’t even get them a wild card spot. 

Coollet
3 years 7 months ago

What would the Jays have to give for the King? Its gonna hurt.

Mikeschoolerforever
3 years 7 months ago

The Mariners don’t do business with Canadians or that concrete dumpster called New York

hallwagner
3 years 7 months ago

refer to my updated suggestion above

hallwagner
3 years 7 months ago

kidding right?

Rangersfan32
3 years 7 months ago

Texas is clearly worse? You’re basing this on Iwakuma, Hultzen and Paxton all being good. I could project the same with Holland, Harrison, Feliz and Martin Perez. And that would be an improvement over an already top 5 or so rotation in the AL.

Lyndsey Stuart
3 years 7 months ago

I think Jorge is right.  The M’s probably have the 3rd or 4th best staff in baseball.  Their AAA guys are very good as well.

Rusty_Arcadia
3 years 7 months ago

Fielder will be a permanent DH before Pujols will. He’s 5’11 285lbs. Pujols is 6’3 235lbs. Who do you think will last longer?

dawgpaddlez
3 years 7 months ago

other than age..what exactly is your point?  in his age 30 season he came back from a broken leg in 2 weeks…no minor league rehab necessary

3 years 6 months ago

Only difference is, A-Rod was on roids…

hallwagner
3 years 7 months ago

talent =/= performance. half their rotation is unproven.

3 years 6 months ago

But unless they go 8-9 every time, their bullpen will blow 10-20 potential 9th inning save situations before they even happen

Guest
3 years 7 months ago

Arod

sonofsnake
3 years 7 months ago

Lawrie Syndergaard and Arencibia

Lunchbox45
3 years 7 months ago

lol you’re nuts..

given their current salaries vs performance. lawrie is just as valuable as felix is.

Felix of course is BETTER, but is getting paid handsomely.

20 million for 6 WAR or .5 mill for 5 WAR

and syndergaard and arencibia?

hA.
 

Encarnacion's Parrot
3 years 7 months ago

Thanks for the laugh. Not even Felix is worth that much.

Rangersfan32
3 years 7 months ago

Pretty much every team other than the Yankees were an afterthought at one point in their existence. This argument is a completely tired and moot one.

Encarnacion's Parrot
3 years 7 months ago

I’d start with a package of Gose/Marisnick, Hutchison/Drabek, Snider and another prospect, Carlos Perez perhaps.

I don’t think it’s quite enough, but it’s not too far off.

sonofsnake
3 years 7 months ago

My being nuts is completely beside the point.  There is a good reason players like Felix don’t get  traded.  They have more value to the team they play for then potential suitors. 

Just because he plays out of the spotlight in Seattle doesn’t make him any less valuable to the Mariners than Verlander or Halladay.  

3 years 7 months ago

Stating that Felix is not worth Lawrie + because of contract scenarios is a fallacy. I guarantee the Jays would not decline Felix for Lawrie, if that’s what you’re suggesting (Lawrie being just as valuable as Felix), even though I wouldn’t do that deal in the first place. I’m still extremely confident Felix won’t be dealt based on everything I’ve seen.

Stark2k
3 years 7 months ago

Don’t forget a certain Japanese/Iranian fellow who has ace upside…  he’ll sign.

If you want to play the upside game, the Rangers match up.

Leonard Washington
3 years 7 months ago

There is no arguing from me that he is a 100M dollar pitcher.
My argument is that contract/posting aside he is much better than people generally give him credit for. No one is walking around going OMG that Dice-K is amazing. Like I said once we saw him pitch for a season all hypes and hopes for him being some amazing pitcher were gone. So because nobody is actually over speaking of his abilities he cannot be overrated. He is generally considered a god awful AAAA pitcher when in reality he is a very solid 5 starter on a competing team. He is currently under rated performance wise.

$18224393
3 years 7 months ago

There is obviously a way that they project to win 75 games. That guy projected that they win 75 games. That means that there must be a way for them to project to win 75. Because they did. 

Derp.

sonofsnake
3 years 7 months ago

Yeah it’s pretty far off.

Lunchbox45
3 years 7 months ago

I don’t know what you’re talking about. every baseball fan knows felix and what he brings to the table.

Jays got Drabek, D’arnaud and Taylor (ended at gose) for Halladay (4 years)

At the time it was Phillies 1, 3,4 top prospects.

Felix package will get more because Doc’s value was lowered by his NTC and desire to play for a contender.

Felix should bring back 4 top prospects of some kind .

Something like Gose, D’arnaud, Hutchinson and Mcguire should get it done.. 

Rangersfan32
3 years 7 months ago

Upside wise, Texas blows most teams out of the water. Darvish and Perez have ace potential, Holland and Feliz have easy #2 potential with a good chance to be aces, and Harrison could be a great #3. Then you have Ramirez and Ross who project as solid 3’s. I’m just sick of people raving about how awesome their rotation is because of potential then ripping on Texas when, in fact, Texas has more potential in their future rotation than some teams could hope to have. Not to mention, the current rotation isnt too shabby either.

Rangersfan32
3 years 7 months ago

Who’s to say any of those guys work out? The first three are prospects. Hit or miss. And you don’t find it strange that Iwakuma all of a sudden can’t find a stronger market than getting a 1 yr – 1.5 million contract (plus incentives) with the Mariners? Something made teams shy away from him, which is tough to do with how many teams had a huge need for cheap starters.

sonofsnake
3 years 7 months ago

Then why hasn’t it?

Also the Blue Jays 1,3 and 4 ranked prospects would be D’Arnaud, Marisnick and Syndergaard.

Toss in a Jacob Anderson and I’d be all for that.

comish4lif
3 years 7 months ago

Agreed, but you don’t need to follow Strasburg with three or four relievers. You could set it up so that there’s a long man in the bullpen rested and ready to go 2-3 innings. Gorzellany and Detwiller should be in the bullpen.

Lunchbox45
3 years 7 months ago

depends on who you talk to, but yah that would a package to build around..

as for the reason it hasn’t happened yet..

the mariners dont want to trade him..

realistically if they trade him in 2013 (provided he has a typical year) they’d still get a similar package.. so why rush?

EdinsonPickle
3 years 7 months ago

Agreed, you wouldn’t have to follow him with 2 or 3 relievers, but with the way the game’s played today, I would have to think that Davey would play the match-ups and bring in lefties and set up men in big situations. If you have Gorzellany or Detwiler setting up with long relief through the middle innings in a close game and they aren’t getting the job done, then you have to use three or four pitchers to get through to the end of the ballgame.

Of course, if Zimmermann, Gonzalez, and co. are going deep into ballgames then this isn’t a big deal. Taxing your bullpen once or twice every five days shouldn’t be a problem.

sonofsnake
3 years 7 months ago

A Felix extension seems a lot more likely than a Felix trade at this point.

sonofsnake
3 years 7 months ago

A Felix extension seems a lot more likely than a Felix trade at this point.

Lunchbox45
3 years 7 months ago

did i say because of contract scenarios

but contract definitely comes in to play..

its value to a team.. performance-salary= value.

jays have a young cheap effective 3B, they don’t trade him for an ace because there’s no one else to play 3rd.

I will bet you any amount of money that Lawrie is not dealt in the next 3 years