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By Tim Dierkes | at
Email a copy of 'The Worst Extensions From Two Offseasons Ago' to a friend
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michael
He just put up a 729 OPS in 82 games and there are increased questions about how much longer he’ll catch. 18/per? That would be psychotic.
vtadave
What you call “psychotic”, I call “fair”.
– D. Dombrowski
michael
Fielder is coming off an excellent season and a stellar run of health. The contract may be insanely big, but at least he’s coming off a superstar season. Paying $18 million a year to a guy who just played half a season last year is much crazier.
chrisn313
More importantly, Dombrowski had little to do with the decision to sign Prince. Edit that with “- M. Illitch” and I will agree.
michael
The problem with a long term contract rarely involves the first year. Not counting contracts signed by Omar Minaya, of course.
michael
Howard’s deal is four years less than Fielder’s… and Howard is more than four years older than Fielder when the contracts start.
mhaftman7
So by your calculations, when Pujols (5.1WAR in 2011)hits years 6-10, not only will his sub 3 WAR be justifiable, the 5/130+ remaining will be too?
DK8
No Pujols contract is likely an overpay too. But he has a chance to significantly outperform his contract in terms of $/WAR on the front end, which is what the Angels need for the contract to be ok in the later years. You can make a case that overpaying for Pujols in years 6-10 is worth it if he is a monster for the 1st 3, and really really good for the next 2-3.
Howard has almost zero chance of overperforming his contract in any year given his peak performance to date, his age, and now the injury.
DK8
Also, you’re assuming Pujols is a true-talent 5 win player. That might be true, but I’d bet the Angels think his 1st half last season was an aberration, and the 2nd half where he was the same old Albert is more representative. They are probably using a 7 WAR baseline.
I had to do mental gymnastics to come up with a rosy scenario in which Howard is a 3 win player. That’s a pretty big difference right there based on whether you assume the best or worst case.
Ryan
Not to mention, the production of Howard vs. Pujols comes from different sources. While power is a part of Pujols’ game, Howard’s game is ALL power. As players age, the power numbers usually are the first thing to begin declining. If this happens to Howard, he is basically finished. Pujols could lose some of his power, and he is still going to be around a .300 hitter, with a .400 or higher OBP in most years. Pujols is far more likely to age well when compared to Howard.
Tom
exactly
I also think we are forgetting the business aspect of the Pujols deal though. Even if he averages .290 and 20 HR over the last 4-5 years of that contract he’s going to be putting fans into the seats as he starts passing names on the all time lists.
michael
Cardenas was the bigger prospect at the time, but as he moved down the defensive spectrum and his bat didn’t improve, he went from possible above average regular to fringe major leaguer.
michael
It was the right kind of bad signing. Lock up a young position player, with plenty of club options. The whole contract is less than a year of an elite free agent. Risk worth taking, even if it’s not looking good.
mhaftman7
Where does Howard rank in terms of actual salary in 2012?
michael
If you’ve put up two straight OBPs under .300, especially as a player with little to no defensive value, you’re borderline to be a major leaguer, let alone making several million.
Adam Moreira
Even worse than Jason Bay’s contract?
michael
Yep. Bay’s contract is stone cold awful, but Werth’s contract is more than $50 million more. And was given to a player who was never elite, was coming from a great home park (the one that helped Rowand get his awful contract too), and did not have the profile of a guy who would age well–not that Bay did either, but Werth was more egregious.
owlssc
What about Barry Zito? That description fits perfectly with his contract. Pitcher’s park, tons of money, lots of years, and no reason to believe he would age well.
michael
And there’s no way another team bid within $20 million of what the Giants did. That’s definitely up there.
TheHotCorner 2
Totally agree with you. The Twins would have had a PR nightmare had they not signed “Baby Jesus” no matter what the cost.
His contract would be easier to swallow if he could stick behind the plate and play 130 games a year there but I just don’t see that happening.
DK8
In 2012 alone? Howard is #1 by AAV. However, by cash paid he is below a few of those guys because his 2012 salary is $20 mil. The breakdown from 2012-2016 goes $20, $20, $25, $25, $25, with a $10 million buyout or $23 million team option for 2017.
mhaftman7
What is his rank in just 2012? If the 2017 option is picked up, the AAV drops to 23.
DK8
Spotrac says there are 10 guys who will make more money than Howard in 2012, with 4 being 1st basemen. But it doesn’t make sense to completely ignore the buyout in 2017.
mhaftman7
It’s just very convenient for people to criticize a contract that is team friendly compared to the other Mega deals. The truth of the matter is that the Phillies signed Howard to a shorter term deal with an inflated AAV as compensation. Non-Phillies fans see decline, while actual fans see a player that played hurt for a year and a half. The best part of the “impartiality” is that with Howard, decline is a certainty, but with everyone else it was just an off year. You yourself stated the Angels should think the first half was an aberration, yet Pujols has declined at least 2 games as far as WAR is concerned in each of the last two seasons.
michael
Even if you want to say last year for Pujols was just a decline year, he still put up a 150 OPS+, which Howard hasn’t done since 2006. I wouldn’t sign the Pujols deal (from the team side, of course), but there’s a more reasonable expectation of getting a truly elite hitter in the first few years. The Howard deal was signed two years ahead of time, and he has a couple of markers (his size and the late start to his major league career) that are bad markers when it comes to aging. Howard settled for only five years because it was signed two years ahead of time and had a huge AAV.
vtadave
He’s not great by any means, but were the Lee and Halladay contracts “horrendous”?
Also, I’d take, as a Dodgers fan, three straight playoff appearances.
vtadave
Not sure a two-year deal can every be that awful, unless it’s the Dodgers and Andruw Jones we’re talking about.
DK8
And they signed him to the extension 2 years before they had too!
CaseyBlakeDeWitt
It’s for players who were still arbitration eligible and Doc had well over 6 years of service time when his extension was signed.
chrisn313
Wait, you think Miguel Cabrera’s is a bad contract? Explain
0vercast
5 years/$90MM
0vercast
If he moves to first base and hits for average and doubles as well as he did in the 50-some games he played there last year, it might not turn out to be so bad of a deal. Mauer has the potential to be a upgrade of Todd Helton in my opinion, and if that’s the case, you could do worse with that money.
The problem is, it seems that Mauer is stubborn about remaining a catcher and unwilling to play any more 1B than he has to. He clings to the idea that he can remain a catcher until the end, and isn’t shy about saying it.
Anthony Bloss
Ya its a lot of money but its only over 5 seasons… Could be a lot worse.
PhreshPhillies
Howard is being paid to hit homers and drive in RBI’s. That’s exactly what he does, so I don’t understand how that was a bad extension. I do agree on Blanton though because of injuries.
elittle80
when you go from hitting 58, 47, 48, and 45 HR’s to hitting 31 and 33 – and you’re only driving in on avg 112 runs as opposed to 143, the previous 4 yrs, not to mention he’s not been healthy the last 2 seasons, and now his Achilles injury for this year… so make that 3 seasons.. I can get what he’s sayin..
Steven Nunez
What about jason bay
sourbob
The thing that blows my mind about the Howard extension is that the Phillies guaranteed $25MM a year for five years of decline phase to a guy who, according to Fangraphs, had never been worth $25MM in a season EVER.