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By Ben Nicholson-Smith | at
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start_wearing_purple
Gotta wonder. How much is Amaro kicking himself for the Papelbon deal? For that matter, how much is Papelbon congratulating himself for signing right away.
nm344
He’d get the highest closer salary regardless. Amaro overpaid by 2-3 mil/year. Not a huge deal considering the team has the highest payroll in the league.
Ryan
2-3 million, times about 2 to 3 years…
nm344
you have a point?
Ryan
whats your question?
vtadave
I think his question was “you have a point?”
Ryan
He/she needs an interpreter now?
Guest 4724
^avoidance of exclusive language!
learned that one last semester is sociology class 😉
Ryan
I’m an equal opportunity Hater.
Thanks for noticing.
Phillies_Aces35
He just has to criticize.
nm344
Couple nit-picks: Phillies get 2 draft picks for Madson, and Willis’ contract is non-guaranteed, so I dont think that qualifies as a ‘major league’ deal.
Phillies_Aces35
While Willis’s contract is a MLB deal, it’s non-guaranteed and he’s more than likely going to be released before opening day if he keeps pitching the way he has.
I think they had a solid offseason. Minus giving Papelbon a year too many, they read the market for Jimmy well and added some much needed power to their bench.
Ryan
Considering that they spent almost $95 million this offseason, to come away with a relief pitcher, a 34 year old shortstop, and a whole lot of ben-gay for the bench, Its curious to me how this can be considered even a moderately successful offseason.
ColonelTom
The bench is what worries me this year. They have much better pinch-hitting options, but an aging team has to plan for injuries, and with Utley, Polanco, and Howard all recovering from serious health issues, the Phils need everyday options coming off the bench. They’ll probably need 60+ starts, and maybe a lot more, at 2B/3B from their bench, in addition to half a season or more of 1B starts.
Manuel’s current 2B/3B options are Ty Wigginton (who is willing to put on a glove and walk out to those positions, but can’t actually play them) and either Michael Martinez or Freddy Galvis (both of whom need another season in the minors). They’ve maxed out their payroll if they want to stay away from the luxury tax. Unless Ruben pulls a rabbit out of his hat and swaps Blanton for a legitimate infielder (I’m looking at you, Alberto Callaspo and Maicer Izturis), they’re looking at losing several wins to injuries that are almost certain to happen, but for which the Phillies have done nothing to plan.
nm344
Bench is much improved over last year. And remember they gave 500 ABs to Valdez/Martinez last year and the team still won 102 while taking a week off in September.
ColonelTom
Pinch-hitting is much improved, but they still need an infielder. Also remember that Wigginton is likely to play a lot of 1B until Howard returns, so if they need him elsewhere, they’ll be playing Thome (who hasn’t played 1B regularly since 2005), Mayberry (primarily an OF), or Nix (9 games at 1B last season after 8 years exclusively as an OF) there instead. That means you’re taking a defensive hit wherever Wigginton is playing plus at 1B – and yes, those guys are likely to be worse than Howard in the field.
Worley’s also likely to regress some this year, and we’ll be replacing Oswalt with Kyle Kendrick. They should still win 93+ games and make the playoffs as long as their big 3 pitchers stay healthy, but it’s not going to be smooth sailing.
nm344
Oswalt will be replaced by Blanton, who if healthy is really not much worse than Oswalt was in 2011.
ColonelTom
Right – I keep figuring they’ll trade Blanton. I have to stop reading so many trade rumors. 😉
Ryan
The bench last year was what? Schneider, Valdez, Martinez, Francisco, and Mayberry.
Worst case scenario, Martinez starts at 3B, probably Orr at 2B, and Wigginton at 1B with Mayberry in LF.
That leaves Schneider, Thome, Nix, and i suppose Pierre and Podsednik on the bench? And Nix is already banged up, so that might become Dom Brown? I am struggling to come up with more infield names than Thome should they need one. If things get really bad, do you ask Thome to play 1B everyday? And Wigginton becomes another utility guy? Scary stuff.
Personally, Ben Francisco is the most established back up out of any of these names at this point in their respective careers, and he just got traded to Toronto for a pouch of Red Man.
Also, for all of the reasons listed by Tom Parker. If you are going to count on a 33 year old catcher, why bring back a 37 year old backup? Jake Fox, Chris Gimenez, and Chris Snyder are all examples of players who bring more to the table, at a lower price, than Brian Schneider. I can not tell if Amaro resigned him just because of his work with Worley, or flat-out laziness. Neither would surprise me.
Ryan
You hit the nail on the head right there IMO. Great post.
Guest 4723
when you put it that way, it does make it look a bit less glamorous
vtadave
Chuckled a bit seeing Danys Baez as a “notable loss”.
Phillibuster
If any of our games go past midnight, at least.
jasonk
Pitching will have to hold up all year, because this offense is going to struggle to plate 3 runs a game most nights. It’s still the best team in the division, but I won’t be surprised if it takes until the final week of the season to wrap it up. Florida, Atlanta and Washington are all capable of making a run at 90 wins this year.
nm344
This same offense scored the most runs in the league after Utley came back. Please save your 2-3 runs nonsense for teams that actually qualify for that– like the Braves.
ellisburks
The Phils scored a lot of runs but they were boom or bust. They would score 10 one game then score 1-2 runs for 5 games in a row. Still potent but much more streaky.
Clayton Wilson
I’ll counter your ‘Same offense scored the most runs in the league after Utley came back’ nonsense with the Braves scored the 5th most runs in the league in 2010 with basically the same team(add Uggla, subtract Infante).
Seriously though, don’t act like that’s sustainable. Have Howard or Utley played a single ST game yet? Is Hunter Pence not the best bet to be productive? They were a tick above average on offense last year and they still have question marks this year. The Mets actually scored more runs per game than any other team in the NL East. Florida addressed their offensive struggles in the off season, the Phillies and Braves really didn’t.
ObamaDinoKiller
i wanna be a bear
Philley11
Because of RAJ’s impatience we are the only team to lose a draft pick due to the old free agency compensation rules.
Phillies_Aces35
That’s the only real gripe I have with the Papelbon deal. I mean, ideally, they just keep it to three years but it’s not worth getting upset about… especially since it’s in hindsight that the market was the way it ended up being.
Jumping the gun a week early and losing a draft pick is something that the GM hasn’t even acknowledged was a mistake.
Ryan
But isn’t having the ability to read the market a trait which a good GM should have? I mean I can understand an extra few million, or an extra year, but the next best reliever on the market, Heath Bell, got a year less, and almost $4m less in annual average value (AAV).
Plus, competent relievers like Francisco and Madson got far less than that.
And it is not even the money that bothers me as much as it is the focus. You have injuries all over the infield, a SS that is past his prime, and a big question mark in LF, and you target “closer” as your huge need? Where is the focus there? Was he asleep during NLDS Game 5, or all of them for that matter? He says they need to have better at bats and then he trots in several all-or-nothing guys like Thome, Wigginton, and Nix. It just makes no sense.
Phillies_Aces35
Well I don’t think anybody thought Andrew Bailey, Sergio Santos, and Huston Street would be moved. Two suitors (Boston and Toronto) who at the time of the Papelbon signing seemed like they had the money to spend on an elite reliever.