Orioles “Going Hard” After Greinke

The Orioles are “going hard” after Brewers right-hander Zack Greinke, an MLB executive told Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. The Orioles appear to be the most aggressive suitor for Greinke, but talks are preliminary, Connolly reports. Some believe the Orioles and Braves are most likely to land Greinke, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports.

Brewers president of baseball operations Doug Melvin recently told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that his team is "trying to win games and get back in the hunt." The Brewers may wait until after facing the Reds, Pirates and Cardinals to determine their course of action this summer.

Executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette "absolutely" has financial support from ownership to take on salary this season, Connolly reports. Greinke, who’s on track for free agency this offseason, earns $13.5MM in 2012. The Brewers could obtain two compensatory draft picks for losing Greinke to free agency, but no other team has the same opportunity under baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement. 

Duquette recently told Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com that he'd like to improve his team's rotation if possible. Top prospects Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy are probably off-limits in trade talks. “They look to be long-term solutions to help the Orioles," Duquette said. The Orioles don’t want to trade young pitching, Connolly reports.

 Greinke, 28, has a 3.08 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 108 innings so far this year. Agent Casey Close has had some extensions talks with the Brewers on Greinke's behalf.

Brian Matusz is a possible trade chip for the Orioles, Crasnick writes (on Twitter). The Orioles are "down on" Matusz, who's now in the minor leagues.


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203 Comments on "Orioles “Going Hard” After Greinke"


Member
AlKelz
3 years 18 hours ago

Please let this be true !!!!!!

Guest
3 years 18 hours ago

Whattttttt?  They Better not be trying to trade Machado or Bundy.

Guest
3 years 18 hours ago

 This doesn’t really make sense. The Orioles have completely faded in recent weeks and can’t be considered a true contender at this point. The only way this would make sense is if they got Greinke’s word he would sign an extension with them, which I doubt.

Member
ThePaulCrew
3 years 18 hours ago

they are 1 game out of a wildcard spot, no?

Member
not_brooks
3 years 18 hours ago

They hold the second wild card spot. Cleveland, Tampa and Boston are all within two games of it though…

Guest
3 years 18 hours ago

 They have the fourth worst run differential in the AL (-28) and have about a 15% chance at the playoffs.

Member
bigpat
3 years 18 hours ago

 I’m sure the Cardinals had a low percentage to make the playoffs last year too, and the Pirates preseason odds had to be low as well. Games are played on the field, not on computers.

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 16 hours ago

“sometimes improbable events occur, therefore we should ignore probability”

Member
Casor_Greener
3 years 15 hours ago

More like “sometimes we should ignore probability”. Winners take chances losers play it safe. No one is talking about selling the farm for Greinke, but a solid package might be worth it.

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 14 hours ago

“sometimes we should ignore probability”

oh this ought to be good. exactly how do you decide which times to do that?

Guest
3 years 14 hours ago

when you think you can win? 

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 14 hours ago

how do you determine that? remember, no probability allowed

Guest
3 years 12 hours ago

Obviously your gut tell your. All kidding aside, the desire to win sometimes clouds better judgement. “Go for it all today and don’t worry about tomorrow”, is probably what’s going through Oriole management.

Member
sooperballz
3 years 10 hours ago

No, It’s gut. But Zack is and the O’s are a good match. Underdogs and under the radar.

Member
Casor_Greener
3 years 14 hours ago

It’s called calculated risk.  The Orioles are in the playoff hunt for the first time in a long time.  What’s wrong with giving up a Arrieta, Matusz, or Tillman for a run with Greinke and the possibility of signing him long term?

I bet you were on here saying the Brewers were stupid to give up the prospects for CC Sabathia, yet none of those dudes ended up being world beaters.  
Meanwhile the fan base got behind the Brewers and hasn’t stopped since.  

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 14 hours ago

what are you doing

i asked you a very clear, simple question: how do you determine which times to ignore probability?

remember, you cannot use probability in making this determination

Member
Alexander_Brovechkin
3 years 12 hours ago

As a Nats fan, I know that the infamous Colon Trade of 2002 crippled their farm system for almost a decade.  I’d be wary of trading top prospects, especially multiple top prospects, just for one guy in the short term who doesn’t even help that much.

The O’s need a lot more than just a starting pitcher.  If I were them, I’d target some guys that could actually help decrease their horrific run differential instead of a single starter.  

Guest
3 years 10 hours ago

The Orioles will not be trading Machado or Bundy, there are not any top prospects after that. I’d be surprised if this deal got done. If the Brewers are willing to take on a high potential and unproven arm like Arrieta or Matusz, maybe a prospect like Schoop, it could get done. 

Member
johnsilver
3 years 52 minutes ago

 LOLOL. I see what ur up to and they can’t answer it of course.. I gonna throw in here what the NE Media would have in the old days.. The Duquette effect.. Count on one /some of his wacky moves to take effect and the magic to take over, or just the opposite.

Member
Casor_Greener
3 years 14 hours ago

Apparently my post got moderated for some reason.

Long story short, look at what the CC trade got the Brewers. Nothing wrong with giving up prospects when you have a solid chance at a run.  Not every time, but sometimes you have to take a calculated risk.

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 14 hours ago

evasion level: expert

Member
Casor_Greener
3 years 14 hours ago

how is that evasion? So I guess in your world, you never trade prospects. Were you against the Red Sox going after A-Gon?

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 14 hours ago

you: sometimes we should ignore probability

me: how do you determine which times to ignore it

you: sometimes you have to take a calculated risk

the universe: what

Guest
3 years 14 hours ago

 I am a Pirates fan, and i still believe that they are one or two starting pitchers away from contending.  I am not completely sold on Erik Bedard or Kevin Coreia in the rotation.  I would llike to see Brad Lincoln get another shot in the starting rotation.  He could plug one of the gaps, but they need another left-hander to complement AJ Burnett.

Member
bigpat
3 years 14 hours ago

It’s not improbable for the Orioles or Pirates to be winning right now, their run differentials aren’t great but all it takes is one or two blowouts either way to skew those numbers. You can’t base what you do on the talking heads from ESPN or fans who always want the team to go “all in” every year, the GM needs to take a look at the team and make a reasonable move or take a chance if they really believe. Baltimore has a lineup good enough for them to stay in it for a while, especially if Markakis comes back soon, and getting a stud pitcher would help them out so much.

I don’t think it would be smart for the Orioles to trade Bundy or Machado for Greinke, but I don’t think they should have to. We’ll see what the value is for hired guns I guess this year since there’s no draft pick compensation, there’s really nothing you can compare them to.

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 14 hours ago

it’s very easy to throw around agreeable phrases like “take a look at the team and make a reasonable move”, but that’s not advancing your case at all

what we’re after here is how to determine which moves are reasonable. tons of work has been published on what winning teams look like and in what environments they emerge. all of that work suggests a team like the 2012 orioles is unlikely to remain a winner this year

what counter-evidence do you have beyond “well, sometimes improbable things happen”?

Member
Casor_Greener
3 years 14 hours ago

I’m not going to sit here and define “calculated risk” for you. You look at what you are giving up, and what you may get in return. A formerlytouted prospect who may have flamed out (Matsuz, Arrieta, or Tillman), for a half season of one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball + a small chance of resigning him. I’d take that every time.
Then again, I was  never afraid of getting off the porch and mixing it in.

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 14 hours ago

okay listen up men. i called this meeting today because we’ve got to calculate the correct time to ignore all the calculations

let’s start by naming all the trades we can think of for no particular reason at all. i figure that should clear things up nicely

Member
Casor_Greener
3 years 13 hours ago

You can pretend like that’s what I’m saying all you want. I don’t get my jollies off making smart Alec comments on messageboards. Bottom line is that the Orioles have a chance to win, and can improve those chances by giving up some pitching prospects that aren’t exactly predicted to be top of the rotation starters. In my eyes, i see that’s a risk worth taking. Apparently you don’t.

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 13 hours ago

have a chance to win this year…and a better chance to win in the following years, provided they don’t to something short-sighted and ignore probability

Member
bigpat
3 years 13 hours ago

In the AL, there are two wild card spots that could be had from many different teams if they make the right moves. It looks like Texas and the Yanks have their divisions pretty much locked up, and there is a big heap of teams like Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Anaheim, Boston, Detroit, Cleveland and the White Sox all in the hunt for two spots. Despite the preseason projections for the Orioles, they are in the thick of things right now and are tied for the second wild card spot. There is no magic formula right now to determine how the Orioles or any other team is going to perform for the rest of the season, so if they see a trade they see fit, they should pull the trigger.

All of these teams in the AL should be competing with each other for the majority of the season and if Baltimore or any of the others acquire a valuable player like Greinke, it will greatly increase their odds of sustaining their success and getting ahead of the pack.

I don’t think either of us are asking them to abandon their future and trade two of the top 10 prospects in baseball for a rental, but if they trade is within reason, this is the time to make a move.

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 13 hours ago

so you are basically taking the position that the odds are unknowable then

that’s a fine position to take, i guess, but it won’t win you much money. there’s a reason oddsmakers and baseball executives operate the way they do

as much as we all love the variance inherent to the sport, it isn’t just a toss up

Member
bigpat
3 years 13 hours ago

Players perform very differently from year to year, and I think it’s hard to buy into preseason odds because they rarely seem to work out in any sport. There are some teams that are flat out loaded like the Yankees and Rangers, but there are many things that can’t be predicted, or are simply overlooked. I don’t think anyone seen the Blue Jays losing 3/5 of their rotation in one week, and I just feel like there are so many crazy things that can and do happen in baseball every year.

Before the conversation goes even longer, I just feel like if Baltimore believes they have a fair offer for Greinke they should take it, because there isn’t one or two teams in the wild card race that is significantly stronger than the others and a pitcher like Greinke can possibly have the Sabathia/Brewers effect on a team.

The best teams on paper rarely win championships in any sport, many different things can happen. In hockey, the Kings were garbage in the regular season. The Giants were horrible midway through the NFL season, and there was no reason to believe the Super Bowl wouldn’t have been New England vs Green Bay, but luck and the unexplainable plays a huge role in every sport.

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 13 hours ago

we aren’t even talking about preseason odds here, though

my position isn’t that the outcomes are predetermined, so the fact that improbable events sometimes occur isn’t a challenge. in fact, improbable events always occur…a small percentage of the time

nonetheless, you can’t build a strategy based on exceptions

i mean, you can. but you won’t make money. and you won’t build a successful franchise

Member
bigpat
3 years 13 hours ago

posted response on page 3

Member
lionofsenate
3 years 18 hours ago

So.   Every year there is a team that has a less than 20% chance to make the playoffs and does.  

Member
notsureifsrs
3 years 16 hours ago

therefore i conclude all teams with a 20% chance to make the playoffs should trade prospects for rentals at the deadline. simple logic you guys i should totally be a gm

Member
Casor_Greener
3 years 14 hours ago

How do you know he is a rental? Has he said he would never sign with Baltimore? Are you opposed to trading for any “rental” or just in this instance?

Member
Meh Sheep
3 years 17 hours ago

Well if ESPN says they only have a 15% chance they should just pack it in.  Same place that had them losing 100 games this year.  Run differential doesn’t count for playoff spots.  Wins do.  You can win a bunch of 3-2 games and lose a bunch 14-3 and still make the playoffs.

Guest
3 years 17 hours ago

It does indicate talent level. The Orioles have over performed in the first half and it would take a radical change in performance or dumb luck for them to not take a sharp decline in the 2nd half.

A team in their position should not be going all out for what looks like a rental.

Member
windycitywarrior
3 years 15 hours ago

 Yea but sometimes talent doesnt play up to itself. Its not like teams like the Yankees never lose 1 run games. Look at the Rangers they just got swept by my White Sox. I think they lost the season series to them 5-2 or 5-1 I cant remember. Im sure no one including myself thinks the Sox are a better team than Texas. Sometimes those stats just get in the way of themselves from actually evaluating a team.

Guest
3 years 17 hours ago

O’s are 17-24 since May 19 and have dropped to 8th in team ERA. Pitching HAS to be their priority right now, whether for the rest of this year or the future.

Member
go_jays_go
3 years 17 hours ago

 
@ Zebradune

This trade would make sense if the Orioles are thinking about keeping Greinke long term.

Baltimore has trouble attracting free agents (no offense to the O’s fans). However, Orioles will target Greinke in the coming offseason, it will be worthwhile to make a trade for him now. If Greinke enjoys playing for Baltimore, it will only boost the chance of having Greinke re-sign with the O’s.

I know this type of situation has two big ‘ifs':
1) Balitmore first must successfully trade for Greinke
2) Greinke must enjoy his time with Baltimore.

It doesn’t always work out (ex. 2008 Brewers and Sabathia), but at least this time there will be no New York Yankees in the bidding.

It does seem like a worthwhile experiment.

Member
Tim Bliss
3 years 18 hours ago

 Let’s hope the Brewers lose a bunch of games right after the ASG and the Braves land Greinke. Definitely need another starting pitcher.

Member
esasc4
3 years 17 hours ago

If the braves lose the series againist the phillies, mets and giants, they will sellers at the end of july.

Member
Braves2014Champs
3 years 16 hours ago

doubtful they lose all three series more doubtful they sell..who would they get rid of? freeman heyward and simmons are staying put ugglas got 3 years left chips done afer the season prado has turned his doubters the other way and mac while they wouldnt trade him would be hard to trade anyways with his price tag

Member
RiverKKiller999
3 years 16 hours ago

Braves aren’t going to be sellers. You can forget about that silly thought. Braves already have a nice line up 1-8 and a few guys such as McCann & Freeman have been slumping so far this year but have shown signs of breaking out the last few games or so. They just need an Ace such as Greinke and perhaps a bullpen arm for support. Frank Wren is a lot smarter than that I hope. Have faith. Braves have too much talent on the team to just give up on the season.

Member
craigkimbrelfan
3 years 18 hours ago

Hopefully, Atlanta is not going ‘soft’ on him.