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By Ben Nicholson-Smith | at
Email a copy of 'Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres' to a friend
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jakec77
Headley to the Braves makes too much sense. Gilmartin and Teheran could compete for rotation spots with the Padres as soon as this spring, and would both almost certainly be in the majors by the end of the year.
briankoke
I’d want a lot more than that for Headley, but I see the match you’re talking about with the Braves. I wouldn’t go after more prospects for Headley. I would want a proven front of the rotation type of starter. I would ask for Hanson and then some. A better match for both teams might be Jedd Gyorko to the Braves for pitching…
The Padres will probably explore an extension for Headley at this point.
jacks100
You don’t want Tommy Hanson.
PhxPadsFan
If the Pads send Headley to the Braves they need to get Simmons as part of the package in return. It is highly unlikely that will happen.
Amish_willy
Agree on Simmons, he’s the kind of talent that would surely pique the Padres interest in discussing Headley. Very doubtful though.
Sir Coyler
if we’re gonna deal headley, which would greatly upset me, i’d want an MLB-ready corner outfielder just because Venable is streaky, Quinton may be gone (injury or trade) and Denorfia probably will never be an everyday OF. but as a baseball follower, yes, you’re right, if i am the braves i try and acquire headley yesterday.
cjmsd
Quentin wont get traded, they just extended him. He also has a no trade clause.
davbee
Gilmartin is thoroughly unimpressive (6.4 Ks per 9 innings last year in AA and AAA). Teheren struggled as well (6.7 Ks per 9 innings, 5.08 ERA). The Padres can get way more for Headley than this.
EddieWinslow
Should be Casey Kelly, not Joe Kelly in the third last paragraph.
1904
I think you mean Casey Kelly, not Joe Kelly. Headley is the biggest decision this offseason. Fans would not be happy with a trade, but if we can get a haul like we did for Latos than it makes too much sense not to trade him and give Gyorko 3B.
Padres4life
so let me get this straight. John Baker (healthy all year, stellar back up, helped contribute with clutch hits) is a non-tender candidate, but Kyle Blanks (injury prone, can’t hit anything but a mistake and can’t field) might get offered a contract? wow! thats unreal! Hundley should be expendable AND Blanks, Keep Baker! Sheesh
Shane McCullough
They’re not going to carry 3 catchers next season but they could always swap Blanks for Guzman if he shows anything in Spring Training.
petcopadre
Blanks for Guzman? Blanks has only shown glimpses of potential. Guzman has been somewhat consistent during his MLB tenure.
Mike 79
Blanks has too much upside to not try at least one more time on.
Padres4life
upside? the dude is one of the worst i’ve ever seen.
johnnycomelately9
You have bad sight, The man can have more 30 homer seasons. He has huge power but hasn’t figured out major league pitchiing. When he’s healthy he can be HUGE.
PhxPadsFan
This is the same type of thinking that has kept Venable in the lineup through three different GMs. Some guys will never figure it out.
Amish_willy
With Venable, like Headley, hitting very well away from Petco, I think fans still don’t grasp the way the park plays, especially for left-handed hitters. Something Venable is 100% of the time and Headley about 70%.
So what makes Headley so special but Venable is a waste? Both players were Super 2’s, meaning after last season Headley was where Venable is now in terms of service time in the majors. Venable has the higher fWar (9.9 vs 9.4) over that same period of time despite having much fewer plate appearances, 1773 vs 2114. Coming into the year Headley only slugged .400 in a season once, that was 2008 his partial season. Venable had done that three times.
Let’s non-tender Venable and the 2.5m he has coming to him, but definitely go out and give Headley that 70m extension.
In regards to Blanks, I can’t name a padres player that they’ve developed in the past decade, probably longer that showed the same kind of power Blanks did, albeit in short bursts due to never staying healthy up to this point. If he turns out to be the next Nelson Cruz or Michael Morse, won’t the same fans be running back crying foul how the Padres never get it right? One things for sure, he’s AL bound, but don’t blame the Padres for wanting to see if he’d turn good. I wish he would have gotten a 400-500 AB season.
With Venable’s 9.9 WAR, that production on the free agent market would be worth around 43m. Up to this point the Padres have paid hm less than 3m. Were those 3 GM’s not very bright about him, or was it someone else…
websoulsurfer
1st off half of WAR is based on fielding metrics that are worse than useless as a predictive stat until you get to 420 games of data, about 3 seasons. Venable barely has enough data in 5 seasons. Throw it out if you are trying to make meaningful comparisons of players future performance.
2nd If you must use WAR at all then over the past 3 seasons its Headley 15.1 fWAR to Venable.7.1 fWAR (and 10.2 fWAR to 4.4 fWAR over the past 2 seasons).
3rd Venable only has 35 less games & 480 less plate appearances over that same period.
That Headley has more playing time is a testament to his effectiveness against both RH starting pitching and LH starting pitching. A 9 point split for Headley vs a 47 point split for Venable. Ad to that Venable’s streaky play and you have a 4th OF. Headley has consistently been one of the top 3B in the NL, now MLB.
Blanks can mash when healthy. 20 HR, 22 Dbls and 3 Trpls in 448 AB. Getting him healthy and into the lineup on a regular basis has been his issue. With Quentin missing half of each of the next 3 seasons Blanks should get plenty of playing time.
websoulsurfer
Blanks has hit 20 HR in 488 AB. The kid can flat out MASH the ball. Scary strong. With Quentin guaranteed to miss half the season for each of the 3 seasons the Padres are stuck with him, having someone like Blanks is good insurance.
Amish_willy
Or Darnell.
Ivan Verastica
yes, I obviously prefer baker over hundley, the grandal-baker duo seems to work well
redsFAN86
The best offseason move for the padres is to get healthy. I like the make up of this team if the right players can get on the field.
Bryce a
Skip Schumaker could be a good fit next year for the Pads. LH batter who can backup 2nd base and play all 3 OF positions. He’s a good hitter and a class individual with a great clubhouse presence who knows how to win. Descalso has earned the 2nd base position next year for the Cards and Chambers is ready for the 4th OF position.
Ivan Verastica
agree, he looks like a good mid-role player, like denorfia or venable
Ivan Verastica
I’m really excited about this team, if the 2013 padres are the second-half 2012 padres we have a good chance of making the playoffs,
please, keep headley, the keys will be the health of carlos Quentin and the consistency of yonder Alonso, just add one or two pitchers, and we are set, LET’S GO PADREEEES