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By Ben Nicholson-Smith | at
Email a copy of 'Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners' to a friend
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Jason D Barr
Seager hit 20 homers this year.
Miles Cameron
“It’s not encouraging that the franchise hasn’t had a player hit MORE than 20 homers since 2009 (Russell Branyan and Jose Lopez). “
Nick Revelli
Seager is a keeper, pure and simple. I hate the idea of even thinking of trading Seager for Upton. I’d rather have Choo than Upton and especially not at the cost of a Kyle Seager. Maybe Vargas & Olivo for Choo or something?
Dave Regan
How is that a good idea from Cleveland’s perspective?
Gator4444
You’d rather have Choo than Upton. The Rangers, Angels, A’s and Astros would also prefer Seattle to have Choo over Upton who will get healthy and have another 6 WAR season.
$18224393
Justin Upton is a worse hitter on the road than Choo is, for his career. (He’s also a worse road hitter than Seager.) If we’re just talking about 2013 value inside Safeco, I’d project Choo to significantly outproduce Upton, since there’s no way Choo’s terrible defensive numbers from 2012 should sustain and Upton will take a massive hit from moving into Safeco. Massive hit here meaning “if his home numbers this year are adjusted down for the Chase effect and the Safeco effect, he becomes a below average hitter”.
Neither Choo nor Upton is desirable, since Choo is left-handed and Upton’s way too expensive.
Gator4444
His contract isn’t expensive for a 6 WAR player. Besides he’s 25 and will still get better like Kemp. Choo has reached his ceiling, Upton hasn’t.
$18224393
I wasn’t referring to his contract, I was referring to what it would take to acquire him via trade. Most proposals I’ve seen start with Seager and add more on top, which is ludicrous since Seager is actually quite a bit better at hitting than Upton.
As for his contract, you’re right, it’s good. But the idea that he’s a 6 WAR player is ludicrous. You can’t just pick a player’s peak season and say that’s who they are… is Erick Aybar a 6 WAR player? No. His value was inflated by defense for one year, and now he’s worth 2-3 WAR. Upton’s value was inflated for one year by Chase Field being unusually hot and balls thus flying further, boosting his offensive numbers in a way that Fangraphs’ park factors do not account for. Conversely, Seager’s value was deflated for one year by Safeco Field being unusually cold and balls not flying out, damaging his offensive numbers in a way that Fangraphs’ park factors do not account for. And though Seager is probably the more valuable player, most Upton trade proposals are Seager-plus. No. No thank you. Too expensive. If I’m Jack Z trading for Upton, the best guy I’m willing to give up is Franklin, plus maybe a bullpen arm or one of the less-touted minors arms. But that’s not what the D-Backs want.
ugotrpk3113
At what point does trading Hernandez to better the future become a top focus? They could EASILY get 4-5 prospects/major league players who can really take this team further.
Lunchbox45
should be this year.
FA market is thin, and not that many teams would be willing to trade pitching. price is as high as its going to be.
Histallness
Hernandez is a known commodity. Prospects for his services doesn’t make sense. To me (although I would probably never do it) any trade for Felix would need to be at least 2 big league star hitters.
ugotrpk3113
Well, whatever it is. Point is – It makes sense to explore trades NOW. Get multiple great pieces and try to build things back up
Lionel Bossman Craft
Alot of these trades dont pan out. Look at all the players sent everywhere for Cliff Lee, none of those teams benefitted. Look at the Johan Santana trade, none of those prospects pan out. It seems teams as of late that trade away big ticket pitchers in relation to other types players, never seem to get prospects that dont make much noise on the major league level.
notsureifsrs
look at the gio gonzalez and mat latos trades
$18224393
“Oh look, two of those trades succeeded, that invalidates the idea that some of them fail”
Dave Regan
Wonder if the Royals would consider something involving Wil Myers, Odorizzi, and a couple other prospects for Felix?
vtadave
Memo to all: if you want to increase your number of down arrows, just suggest trading Felix Hernandez.
ugotrpk3113
Memo to Seattle – Walking into a season with a bunch of 6 through 9 hitters and a bunch of 4-5 starters gets you know where fast. Trading Felix (although not popular here for whatever reason) is a logical solution to really build your team.
Sorry for using logic, I’m done now.
notsureifsrs
many of them assume that felix is going to stay in seattle when his current contract is up. under that assumption, you might be patient enough to wait until you can win with him, since he will have endured the worst with you
whether that’s a safe assumption is a separate question. it seems pretty obvious to me that it isn’t, but if you do make the assumption, you can sensibly defend the “keep felix” thing. he’s pretty awesome
$18224393
I’m betting on the Mariners to extend Felix this offseason. He says, over and over again, he wants to stay. Unless he’s lying–which I’ll grant is a possibility, but I don’t think is “pretty obvious”–there’s mutual interest.
douglasb
how exactly will the Mariners cut ties with Figgins? trade him straight up for Alfonso Soriano?
MarinersFan1977
It’s been pretty clear from listening to Eric Wedge talk about Brendan Ryan’s elite defense that the team values him highly despite his abysmal bat. He’s not being non-tendered this winter and in fact, Seattle might take advantage of his poor offensive season by signing him to a two-year, team-friendly deal (2-years, $6 mil?). I’m not saying that’s what I would necessarily do if I were running the team, but if Seattle can improve their offense this winter they can probably afford to have an all-glove, no-hit guy at one spot in their lineup. That and Ryan has never been that bad before, so he can be expected to hit closer to .250 in 2013. I’d say there’s a better chance Seattle non-tenders Vargas than Ryan.
dcwidman
Unless they plan on trading Jaso, going after a DH doesn’t make much sense since the team is committed to Montero, and Zunino is already close to ready. That’s three guys with bats who can’t all play at the same time. One needs to catch and one needs to DH. I’m okay with giving Smoak one more year. Pitching looks solid. Parting with Vargus, Figgins, Ryan, Millwood seem right. Triunfel and Franklin are good — not as good — as Ryan defensively, but both have more potential offensively. The outfield corners seem the best places to upgrade the offense.
Miles Cameron
I would be fine if the Mariners traded Montero to create some room. Getting David Dejesus and Josh Willingham would be awesome, and be a huge improvement over the current outfield. Saunders/Guti can share center.
Jim 22
breaking news, Mariners sign Josh Hamilton……
lol jk, but when the offense stuff came up this was all I could think of haha
Edgar4evar
I hope the Mariners focus their FA dollars on the best offensive outfielder who can still play some defense, and pitching. Everywhere else they could add offense they’d be blocking the progress of a young prospect. Smoak, Montero, Jaso and possibly Zunino have all earned the job share at C/DH/1B next year. Kyle Seager looks legit at 3B.
For pitching the team should start by trying to re-sign Iwakuma. He looked very good to end the season. Erasmo Ramirez also was a bright spot in the second half. The team should look to add another top starter, however, as the team’s top prospects aren’t pushing to start the year on the big club. Maybe Greinke would prefer the slow pace of Seattle to some big, fancy, probably-going-to-win-a-lot team? Maybe? This is another place I’d like some money to be spent.
For cuts I think they should move Vargas. He’s going to get killed at Safeco next year. Find a not-very-good GM to give you something for him. Obviously Figgins and Olivo need to go. You don’t want Olivo to block Zunino for even one minute. Find a cheap organizational catcher to start the year with the club and dump him as soon as Zunino is ready.
Teach Beavan an out pitch. He was right behind Cliff Lee in BB/9. You don’t toss that aside, but right now he’s a number 5 at best.
I want the M’s to keep Brendan Ryan to start the season, but he could be pushed out by Nick Franklin. Ryan is a guy who could make a good defensive-replacement type and doesn’t cost too much.
Other than that the strategy is to wait for young players to develop. I’m looking at you Ackley, Smoak and Montero.
You’ll note I didn’t mention the bullpen. Do not touch. It is perfect.
dcwidman
How many times did Ryan come up with the bases loaded or runners on 2nd and third with two outs? And, how many of us went to the fridge to get a cold drink when that happened because we didn’t want to see the inevitable? No question Ryan has a great glove. He’s a lot of fun in the clubhouse. And, he does a great DeNiro imitation. But bottom line he’s every opposing pitchers dream.Gets them out of trouble every time.
bigpat
Taillon, Marte, McPherson, Hanrahan, and Snider for King Felix?
Miles Cameron
haha no
$18224393
Get this through your thick skulls, other fans. The Mariners are NOT trading Felix.
(Especially not for a scrub LF and an extra closer).
Othello Pompeii
I would have rather lost all these games with Jones in a Mariner uniform rather than Orioles…! Jack Z needs to huddle with the other bottom feeder GMs and find some talent as other teams do with Seattle. Its not the ball park dimensions, its the dug out that keeps talent away from the NW. I’m sure someone is going to be offended but i will say it anyway… bring in a Latino or African American manager if you really want talent to come in and win games. The front office has tried everything else, why not? Born and raised on Mariner Baseball… I do not like being 10 to 15 games out of 1st place by Memorial weekend every year.
johnrhee
Mariners should sign Melky Cabrera to play outfield as he is also out there to help the M’s in 2013 since he won’t be playing for San Francisco Giants next season. Trading Chone Figgins, Jason Vargas, and minor league pitcher Moises Hernandez or Steve Garrison to Baltimore Orioles for Third baseman Chris Davis (who can also play third/first baseman/outfielder), and Jim Thome if he is not a free agent nor retiring who can teach the young team to win games by making the playoffs every year or Nolan Reimold.