Rosenthal On Hamilton, Hart, Pagan, Indians

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke with agents and rival executives about where Josh Hamilton might land and the Nationals, Phillies, Mariners, and Orioles often came up in conversation.  The Phillies would appear to be a stretch for both financial and baseball reasons, but two industry sources say the club is quietly checking in on him.  It was reported earlier this week that the O's are targeting Hamilton but Rosenthal would be surprised if owner Peter Angelos, who emphasizes that his GMs find him players with a history of good conduct, can be talked into it.  Here's more from Rosenthal..

  • The Brewers are discussing a new deal with first baseman/right fielder Corey Hart.  The 30-year-old is seeking a three-year extension but the Brewers might prefer to give him two more years while increasing his 2013 salary.  Hart is under contract for one more season at $10MM.
  • Giants GM Brian Sabean expressed confidence that the team would re-sign free agents Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, and Jeremy Affeldt.  Meanwhile, sources say that other teams are more aggressive than the Giants on Pagan right now.
  • It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Indians trade Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Chris Perez, and Justin Masterson, all of whom have two or fewer years of control remaining.  However, catcher/first baseman Carlos Santana, signed for four more years, is more likely to stay.


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32 Comments on "Rosenthal On Hamilton, Hart, Pagan, Indians"


Member
dc21892
2 years 7 months ago

I could not imagine the Phillies going after another high priced lefty bat. They need some right handed hitting.

Member
Gothapotamus
2 years 7 months ago

while they’d be very left handed with Hamilton, his splits against LHP for his career are still pretty respectable (.280/.327/.481 – .808 OPS vs .959 OPS against RHP). Also, Utley’s career numbers vs. LHP are pretty close to what he’s done vs. RHP (.856 OPS vs. .886 OPS). Howard’s numbers vs. LHP are terrible, though – .739 OPS and K’s once every 2.5 ABs or so. He has a career 1.005 OPS vs. RHP.

Member
Phillies_Aces35
2 years 7 months ago

I think you make an exception for Josh Hamilton if his market collapses and all of a sudden he’s on a 3-4 year deal versus 5-6-7.

The Phillies line up isn’t that left handed heavy as it stands now.

Rollins
Mayberry
Utley
Howard
Ruiz
Brown
Ruf
Galvis
Pitcher

(I just used what the opening day line up would be RIGHT NOW… but no means would I go into the season with that line up).

Member
Brendan Purcell
2 years 7 months ago

Yeah, I agree. Never understood why a lefty-heavy lineup would be so bad anyway. I believe most pitchers in the MLB are right-handed anyway and the focus should be on value, not trying to balance your lineup with righties and lefties. But the Phils are much more balanced than they used to be.

Member
Gothapotamus
2 years 7 months ago

I smell a RAJ special here, going with a contract that has a team option with large buyout (a la Lee and Howard). Thinking he throws a 4/110M offer w/5th year team option ($10M buyout). 25/25/25/25 w/25/10 option.

Member
Catztradamus
2 years 7 months ago

Hamilton played 89 games in 09, 133 in 10, 121 in 11 and 148 in 12. Granted, he killed it when he was healthy. My biggest issue as a phillies fan isn’t the years, or the dollars, or even surrendering the 16th pick, its the fact that between Hamilton, Howard and Utley in the middle, I don’t know if you get 75 games TOTAL all season when all three are in the lineup together.

Member
Phillies_Aces35
2 years 7 months ago

That’s certainly a legitimate concern, one I have as well, although it wouldn’t be my #1 concern. (My #1 concern is the addiction problems, they don’t go away and Philadelphia isn’t the best market for someone with those problems).

Member
2 years 7 months ago

I’d rather they not re-sign Hart from a financial standpoint. Whatever he resigns for (>$10 mil) will be far greater than what Aoki and Morris (if ready in 2014) will make combined.

From a production point of view, Hart wants to stay in Milwaukee and may take a discount to stay. We’ll have to wait and see what Swisher signs for to see how much Hart is worth on the open market, because they are pretty comparable players overall.

Member
55saveslives
2 years 7 months ago

Scutaro will probably the easiest of the 3 to sign. 2yr/12 should do it. Basically just giving him Freddy Sanchez contract. Pagan is going to be overpaid. and with the League contract, Affeldt probably will too.

Member
Brendan Purcell
2 years 7 months ago

IMO Pagan will be underpaid. If you average his 2-year WAR, 4-year WAR, and career WAR (all averaged for 150 games), you get an average of 3.3 WAR. That formula takes into account that the recent past is more important than the far past and I believe it’s accurate. If you’d agree that Pagan is a 3.3 WAR player (which I think most people looking deep into stats would agree with), he should get $15M/year according to the $4.5M/1 WAR rule.

Member
Brendan Purcell
2 years 7 months ago

Meanwhile, if you do the same formula for B.J. Upton, you get 2.21 WAR. Upton is the one some team is going to seriously overpay for. Victorino (3.58) and Melky (3.10) also look like good bargains.

Member
@NotRizzo
2 years 7 months ago

Should Nats fans be flattered or insulted that he call the nats lineup with Hamilton in LF “AL Level”? It would be pretty impressive;
1. Werth (RF)
2. Harper (CF)
3. Zimmerman (3B)
4. Hamilton (LF)
5. Morse (1B)
6. Desmond (SS)
7. Espinosa (2B)
8. Ramos (CA)

Member
GL333
2 years 7 months ago

That lineup would be lethal as long as they don’t shut down Strasburg during a playoff run!

Member
@NotRizzo
2 years 7 months ago

Shut down the Silver Slugger? They might have to bat Stras 7th! I would assume a Hamilton signing means they go in house of bargain basement on the #5 starter…so the Nats rotation would be;
1. Stras
2. Gio
3. JZim
4. Detwiler
5. Garcia/Gorzo/etc
Also putting Morse at 1B for ’13 gives Rizzo the option to trading him or letting him walk for ’14 to bring up Rendon (who I thnk will eventually play 1B in Washington – NOT 3B).

Member
GL333
2 years 7 months ago

As big as Scutaro was this year his age scares me off. 1-2 year contract tops. Don’t want another Huff to happen. As for Pagan, he’s gonna get paid nicely. Just hope it’s still by the Giants. Affeldt should get a healthy raise too. And with Rowand, Huff and F. Sanchez off the books it’ll give them some wiggle room to keep these guys. Now the real question is should they bring back Melky?

Member
love_louseal
2 years 7 months ago

Huff was a two year deal as well. They don’t want another Rowand-like deal with Scutaro. I would personally love to see Melky back but it seems very unlikely because the brass doesn’t want to be known as the ped franchise, especially with championships to defend.