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By Steve Adams | at
Email a copy of 'Examining The Homer Bailey Extension' to a friend
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Scott 31
I thought this was excellent analysis.
Gop5
I agree. It’s always nice to see a team pay someone based on what they feel their potential is rather than seeing a team pay for what a player HAS done in the past while they’re not old.
I’d rather see a player get extended for overpay on a chance in their young years than a 31 year old that gets a 10 year contract for $240 M. I love the idea of long term extensions, like the Rays are good at doing, and taking a chance on a player before they get a chance to leave. It’s great to see the game moving that way.
Josh Do.
Agreed! Really well-written article
Ryan 47
Good job making the argument. The problem is, no matter how you spin this, it was a contract that pays him for his very recent success and the assumption he will become elite. Why make the deal if you’re the Reds? I feel like they just paid market value for a guy with tons of risk and average reward. Wainwrights deal with my cards looks unreal in light of this one…
Steve Adams
Wainwright’s deal also covers his age 31 to 35 seasons, where Bailey’s free agent years will kick in for his age-29 season. The Reds will be done with Bailey’s deal when he’s 33 years old if they wish, while St. Louis is guaranteeing Wainwright $19.5MM in his age-34 and age-35 seasons.
That’s not to speak ill of Wainwright’s deal, which does look great for the Cardinals. I’m just giving a reason as to why the Reds felt as though they could take the risk. I think in their mind, the “downside” is that Bailey repeats 2013 for the next several seasons, which isn’t too shabby. The upside is that he becomes a consistent four- to five-win pitcher, making $19MM annually a perfectly reasonable price, given the market.
Natsfan89
Steve, what does this mean for Jordan Zimmermann? Him and Bailey had comparable numbers last season, they’re the same age, similar situations, and Zimmermann has the added advantage of putting up 3 good seasons in a row.
How much more would the Nats have to pay Zimmermann to get him locked up longterm?
TheNextEpstein
I would say somewhere slightly above where Bailey sits. probably in the range of 6 and 120-130mm would be reasonable. I am guessing Mat Latos would get something in that range as well.
Jeff Todd
Won’t speak for Steve, but I’d have to think that Bailey’s deal would be viewed as a floor if talks take place next year (assuming Zimmermann has a healthy, largely typical season).
If you’re asking about possible value for a deal reached during the current off-season, remember that Zimmermann has an extra year of control remaining (although the Nats have already promised him $24MM over the next two seasons). Bailey has now shown a higher strikeout ceiling, but Zimmermann has just been better for longer and hasn’t been shy about saying he wants a full market deal. I’d be surprised if he took anything less than Bailey got over the same period of time, even if agreement was reached during this spring.
Natsfan89
Thanks for replying man, love that you guys do that.
Ryan 47
We are getting really consumed about age here and i’m not sure why. Pitchers typically don’t see a decline until the 34-36 years. My concern with the deal is that his increase in velocity is not for long and his downside looks alot more like his 11’/’12 seasons (a 4ish FIP and k/9 just a touch over 7). Upside imo being 2013 (mid 3ish WAR).
I will admit that my disgust with this deal has alot more to do with the outrageous money that slightly better than mediocre starters are getting these days than it does with HB. I cringe to think what some team will pay guys like Lance Lynn and Rick Porcello (other 3ish WAR arms).
What would his avg win over replacement need to be over the next 6 to make this deal justified (break even) for the Reds?
TheNextEpstein
The reason people are consumed with age is that the Reds are banking on Bailey to have more upside than you are saying. His peripherals the last 2 years suggest a much lower ERA and the steady improvement he has made year to year suggest he might get better. He certainly has the stuff to be a No. 1, the question has been consistency. You don’t throw 2 no hitters if you don’t have that kind of stuff.
That being said I don’t think front offices view Porcello or Lynn as having the same ceiling that Bailey does, the same could be said for Masterson, although Master is much closer to Bailey than the other two.
jacks81x
The risk is there, but I think the reward is better than average. Bailey is only 27 and entering his prime, has made huge improvements in his game the last couple years, and from all accounts is a good clubhouse guy. The Wainwright deal is a great one for the Cards, but those types of deals are more the anomaly than the norm. All contracts come with risks. Bailey could break his arm tomorrow and never pitch again, or he can be a 200-inning, 16-win guy for you the next 5 years. You can do all the statistical analysis you want, but at the end of the day every contract is paid out for the combination of potential and past success.
TheNextEpstein
Paying him “Elite” money would be far more than 105mm over 6. Elite money as we have seen are Tanaka, Greinke, Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Verlander contracts just to name a few. Since he isn’t in that category he got less, makes perfect sense.
johnsilver
I’ll go there also. He got a tad less AAV than Cain did perhaps back in ’10 and a couple of years less. Close to same performance prior to Cain signing though. That would be someone to compare to.
monroe_says
After breaking the long curse of poor pitching development that had plagued the Reds’ system for decades, it’s excellent to see Homer stay in Cincinnati for what will hopefully be his prime. While he had a rocky start at a very young age, it truly has been a treat to watch Bailey progress. I thought for sure he’d be gone and I couldn’t be happier to have been wrong.
Chettmoses
Agree 100%…I also thought that bailey would bulk on a deal and leave Cincy for Texas. I think Bailey’s that pitcher that tries to beat ever batter, every single at bat. You can see the intensity with him when a batter gets a hit or drives in a run…He wants to win and that attitude will do two things:
1. Make him evolve into a great pitcher
2. drive the rest of the Reds to do better
Bailey might become the leader of this squad!
TheNextEpstein
Great analysis in the post above, it looks like an overpay to someone that doesn’t dig into the numbers a little deeper, but is fair market. Hopefully they are able to lock up Latos as well.
livestrong77nyyankz
Bailey is money and now he has lots of it and deservedly so. I of course wanted my team to get him in free agency next year but its nice to see the Reds lock up another one of their young stars.
pft2
Adjusting for league, is Bailey that much better than Santana or Jiminez? Where was the fair market for them, even adjusting for the draft pick (which is about 5 million value for a non top 15 pick, and less for late rounds)
TheNextEpstein
Yes, younger than both Jimenez 30 and Santana 31, a lot less volatility in performance at the younger age, makes him a higher price than both.
bjsguess
THIS ^^^
If I had a choice to pay Bailey 5/$95 or Jimenez 4/$50M + late round draft pick I do the Jimenez deal all day long. No way anyone can convince me that Bailey’s extra year is worth $45M + the cost of a draft pick.
Jimenez has posted 3 WAR or more in 5 of the last 6 seasons. He had a solid platform season with 3+ WAR. He’s a little older but has consistently turned in 180IP seasons for the duration of his career.
There’s more risk with Jimenez from an injury and performance perspective but I still don’t think that risk is anywhere close to the discrepancy between these two players.
Metsfan93
Jimenez’ actual stuff has seen a decline, though, which could signify decline. I don’t think Jimenez is going to get better from here. His established level or worse is what you’re getting. Runs-allowed-wise, the Reds are banking Bailey’s peripherals and stuff leads to slightly better results. I see this as Anibal Sanchez plus a little, basically, which is fair. Sanchez made good on ignoring ERA and signing him to that deal in just his first season. I don’t think Bailey has THAT potential, but close to it.
Chettmoses
Has anyone told BP yet……just wandering what he thinks of the deal….LOL JK
Dan Bowen
If I’m someone like Jarrod Parker, I’m excited right now.
Phantom Stranger
I think this money would have been better spent on Mat Latos. The scouts have always loved Bailey’s stuff since he was first drafted and he finally started achieving like it in the past two years. Was Bailey really going to command much more on the open market, even after another good year? I really don’t see the big savings in this deal from the Reds’ perspective. It’s a deal that probably won’t hurt them but a small-market team like the Reds need to “win” deals instead of breaking even for long-term success.
LazerTown
Is a large deal but the biggest gain is his age. They aren’t paying for decline. Compare him to someone like Cano who they are giving more per WAR for what he produces now, but they have to eat a whole lot less at the end. And that is where there is value in this. Maybe he isn’t elite, but if you don’t have to pay those ugly age 35+ seasons, you should be happy.