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Email a copy of 'Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds' to a friend
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Rally Weimaraner
The Reds are in a rough division, coming off a third place finish (granted they did win the 2nd Wild Card) and they look like a worse team than they did last year. That’s not a good combination.
stl_cards16
If the pitching stays healthy, they’re a good team. That starting five is very, very good.
Jay King
The pitching is looking kinda scary at the end of spring training. There are several pitchers bullpen and rotation that might start the season on the DL.
Makes me very nervous
Kevin 28
One concern this article doesn’t address – lack of pitching depth THIS year. Beyond Cueto (injury problems) Latos, Bailey, Leake (solid) and Cingrani (injury problems in 2013) the Reds don’t have much MLB ready pitching. If (when?) one of those guys goes down the Reds are looking at Jeff Francis, Alfredo Simon, or Chien-Men Wang to fill the void. Not great options all around. Could use Stephenson late in the year, but it doesn’t seem he’s MLB ready yet.
ShaneRedsFan
Don’t forget about David Holmberg.
Kevin 28
baseball-reference.com/players/h/holmbda01.shtml
I’m going to take a shot in the dark and assume that was sarcasm…
Dynasty22
Sarcasm? What numbers are you looking at? The one start he made last year?
Rally Weimaraner
The first 3.2 MLB innings are always indicative of true talent!
PriceMeTheRing
I’m still boiling over the fact that Chapman is not a starter. He is getting paid like one. I wish Jocketty would learn to not over pay for bullpen help, there is always cheap value for those guys. Broxton should not be on this team for that price.
nick 20
Chapman isn’t getting paid as a starter, I would say at this point he isn’t getting paid like a top 5 closer like he is. He is getting paid like a top tier set up guy. Granted this will change in two years, at that point he will make top closers money.
Bronx Bombers
Am I the only one who thinks Homer Bailey isn’t worth 105 million? Maybe if he pitches to expectations, but has he shown that he is worth it based on his numbers?
Dynasty22
Not many people thought he was worth it.
Kevin 28
Not the only one, no. But he is worth it. As the article mentions he was a top of the rotation arm last year. The D backs just paid $11 / yr for an aging Bronson Arroyo. Counting what the Redsa already owed Bailey they’re basically giving him $16 mil per year. Not much more for a likely top arm.
Bronx Bombers
He has some decent numbers but he’s never been a finalist in Cy Young or MVP voting or been an All-Star just to note. I’m not saying those are needed to get paid that much, but he’s being paid like a top ten pitcher when he doesn’t have any seasons that warrant distinction.
Kevin 28
Research is a blessing… baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-in…
Not even in the top 15… top 20 of you figure $16 per. Contracts are only getting bigger. This will be chump change in a few years.
Bronx Bombers
Most of those players are/were batters and many of those contacts have expired. I’m talking about current contracts for pitchers, not position players.
Kevin 28
Scroll down the page…
Bronx Bombers
Ok any many of those contracts are expired, I am talking about current contracts for 2014. I did not say he’s being paid like a 10 ten pitcher of all time, just for the season. The only contracts with a higher AAV then Homer’s $17.5 million for 2014 are Sabathia, Tanaka, Kershaw, Verlander, Cain, Hamels, Lee, Felix Hernandez, Zito, and Lincecum. And that’s the whole league not just the NL, so Bailey is roughly 11th. I’m off by one so sue me but my point sticks. He’s definitely being paid alot more then the 10th highest pitcher in the NL of all time.
Kevin 28
Edited. Price me a ring said it best. He would have easily gotten that on the open market. His peripherals support it. And its not even top 10 money RIGHT NOW. How is it overpaying 5 years from now? Its not.
Bronx Bombers
Then name 10 pitchers who will be paid more in 2014 then Bailey (you will have to include the AL, I guarantee it).
stl_cards16
$17.5MM per year is not being paid like a top ten pitcher anymore.
PriceMeTheRing
Homer would have gotten that in the open market. Probably more. Reds payed market value. Can they afford it, they think they can.
Bronx Bombers
How many pitchers have a higher AAV then Bailey? Sabathia, Tanaka, Kershaw, Verlander, Cain, Hamels, Lee, Felix Hernandez, and Barry Zito. Anyone else have a higher AAV the Bailey in 2014? So that’s 9 pitchers, Bailey makes 10. So like I said he’s being paid like a top ten pitcher. Even if he was 12th my point is still valid.
Kevin 28
And my point (and many others) is that this is now chump change.
Plus he’s worth the money. Sign a bunch of pitchers to $14 mil contracts (31 year old Ervin Santana, for example) and see how far your team goes.
Agree to disagree, Lionel. We’ll see how this plays out in 4-5 years.
Bronx Bombers
I agree in even 3 years it maybe worth it, but only if he pitches at his current level or better. They are paying him thinking his numbers will improve. I doubt many teams would have given him that on the free market.
Kevin 28
And that’s why you aren’t a GM…
Bronx Bombers
Not to be facetious, neither are you.
Kevin 28
Nope, I am not.
Here’s trivia for you: Three players, all in their age 27 season:
ERA IP WHIP SO BB
Player A 3.83 171.2 1.200 201 45
Player B 3.49 209.0 1.124 199 54
Player C 3.32 198.0 1.258 197 63
Can you guess who they are?
Player A is Zach Greinke, now making $26 MIL through his age 34 season. Player C is Matt Garza, now making $13 MIL as a 34 year old. And Player B? Homer Bailey.
You’ll likely try to argue All Stars and Cy Youngs, but those aren’t nearly as solid predictors as stats. Compare his against the other guys and, minus Greinke’s Cy Young year, his are as solid as any other.
Bronx Bombers
I wouldn’t have gave Greinke that much either, but based on all this talk, these teams have themselves to blame for rising prices, not the Yankees and Sox. Bailey is pretty good but not great. Masterson just asked Cleveland for a similar deal in terms of AAV from the Indians and didn’t get it, he also isn’t worth that much. Grienke by the way is much better then Homer Bailey, who has never has a single vote for the CY Young.
Kevin 28
“Bailey is pretty good but not great.”
What would you pay him?
Bronx Bombers
I would offer him in the neighboorhood of 4-6 years with the AAV in the range of 12-15 million, probably around 14million. Chris Sale got extended for five-years, $32 million, he’s better and younger than Bailey.
Kevin 28
Yes, he is. He is also 3 years away (see: one year of pre-arb and two years of arbitration) from being a free agent and was making $600,000 this year. The Sox gave him a huge pay raise and a ton of guaranteed money, and in return he gives them two years of free agency at well below market value.
He does this because he’s coming out of it at age 29 within the prime of his career, possibly $60 mil in his pocket (yes, there are escalators and options there) and the option of signing a brand new deal.
Two completely different scenarios.
$16 MIL / yr extension still sounds about right for Bailey.
burnboll
Cincinnati reds has got Bruce Wayne as a staff ace.
oh Hal
Reading this article, you’d think the Brewers were an old team.
Franl Edwardo
Trading Hanigan is nothing but a positive. I watched 100 plus reds games each ofbthe last 3 years and he was dead weight. He had one decent offensive year and otherwise was not much more than another pitcher hitting in the lineup.
PriceMeTheRing
All I have to say is I like Mes. He should play 75% of the time at least.
Hills of Glenallen
Losing Choo is going to hurt worse than they seem to want to admit. Hamilton is the next Joey Gathwright and probably won’t hit his own weight. You can’t steal first, right?
PriceMeTheRing
no he was born to be special. Bet
Kevin 28
The obp in AAA is worrisome. Hopefully that’s an aberration, but I’m inclined to think it isn’t.
Kevin 28
I’m worried about it as well. Also – they should move Votto to second in the batting order. Think about all the fastballs he’d see with Hamilton on base in front of him. Hamilton will see better pitches, Votto will see better pitches, then Bruce is up third. Ludwick, Phillips, Frazier, Mesoraco, Cozart. Better lineup.
PriceMeTheRing
I’m a reds fan, but not a homer. I am not happy with Walt Jocketty and how he didn’t get more done this offseason. I do think that this Article forgets how important the Manager can be. Dusty Baker did hold anyone accountable for how they progressed and worked on a day to day. Brian Price will and he has some many intangibles to be a good manager. He will get the most out of these players including Brandon Phillips. Billy Hamilton will set a record for the most infield hits, so he’ll be fine. It all comes down to health. We can win 90 games this year.
Jay King
As stated above the early pitching injury pile is getting pretty huge. I’m nervous cause The Reds April schedule is tough.
Lanidrac
Don’t blame their lack of prospects on recent success. The Cardinals have one of the best collections of young talent in MLB, and they haven’t had a Top 10 draft pick since 1998!