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By Steve Adams | at
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grantastica
Great write-up, Steve! Best I’ve read to date! You are spot on, on every tidbit of information about this Royals squad. Expect a good year from Moose, and another subpar year offensively from Escobar, although hitting at the bottom of the order might alleviate some pressure. This team’s hopes and dreams rest squarely on the shoulders of Salvy, and I’m a bit surprised you didn’t touch on this a tad more.
rxbrgr
Note: Elliot Johnson finished 2013 with the Braves
Steve Adams
Thanks for that. I actually meant to type “Chris Getz” when I was doing that one and somehow got Johnson’s name in there instead.
DarthMurph
I don’t see the Royals making the playoffs this year. While the Tigers and the Indians aren’t improved over last year, the Tigers are still the team to beat and Wild Card spots should be real tough with the way the East and the West are looking.
The back end of their rotation and the bottom of their lineup are completely mediocre. Sure there’s hope, but this isn’t a playoff team unless they go on an Indian like tear late in the season.
jimfetterolf
Not too worried about losing Shields, might hurt for a year, might not, will allow money for extension of young players critical for long term success. Royals aren’t the Yankees, they’ll have to build from within to sustain, so best is just to accept that up front.
Dock_Elvis
I’m with ya, but they will have to acquire outside talent…most teams do. At this point it’s putting a rotation out there while Hosmer is still under control
jimfetterolf
A valid point, but I think the better business model would be to take the $70m it takes to sign Shields and instead extend Hosmer, Ventura, maybe Duffy, and so on.
Dock_Elvis
I think Hosmer will be a tough extension. That might be why there’s so little chatter about it. I see him hitting FA. The Royals QO’d Santana… but they really do need a #2 starter.
Dock_Elvis
Kind of the problem KC faces…there’s a bit of a gap between the Hosmer/ Moose wave and the Ventura wave
Kevin Waisfeld
With the bullpen, defense, ace, reliable starters and ace-upside mlb-ready prospects, the rotation will be better than you expect. There’s reliability and depth to it. At the end of the day though, it will come down to Hosmer, Moose, Butler, and Gordon being able to put together a healthy, successful season. That’s what pushed the Royals to 86 wins by the end of the season, and that’s what will be needed. A well improved 86-win team is always a contender for a playoff spot. Whether they’ll get it or not remains to be seen.
Dock_Elvis
Just watch Aoki…that offense will key on him
Kevin Waisfeld
He’ll be fine, usually a consistent OBP and good defense, but he’s not the anchor. Need 2nd half Hoz and Moose.
Dock_Elvis
KC needs everything to break right. That’s conceivable… every season it seems to happen for at least one team. I’d be a little more confident if they had a clear #2 behind Shields. They might get a breakout from Duffy and Ventura… but both will likely be on an innings cap… and relying on Chen and Vargas is sketchy.
TheRealRyan 2
I agree with this. If Moose can OPS .750+ and Hosmer .850+, I think this team will be good. If Moose drops back under .700 and Hosmer struggles with his power again, they’re not going anywhere.
Mil8Ball
Aoki is the key? Good luck then he isn’t even that good. He provides no power and his defense is not good. Whoever said he provides good defense has never watched him cause he is average at best.
If an average corner outfielder is your key looks like a lost season.
Dock_Elvis
I’m talking team lineup building. If he can maintain a high obp…the Royals will score more runs with Infante/ Hosmer/Butler hitting behind him. What I actually said was the offense will key OFF him
Mil8Ball
He isn’t much of a difference maker. He also has taken huge declines in doubles, stolen bases, and defense. Last year he only had 20 doubles, 17 less than the year before. Even worse is he had 21 more hits last year! Adding on to the problem is he only had 20 steals last year while getting caught 12 times…pretty poor if you ask me. His OBP. last year was .354. which isn’t too bad, but when you consider most of that is only getting to 1B it isn’t all that impressive.
He is barely average now, if his decline due to age continues he isn’t going to be worth much to the team at all.
Dock_Elvis
They didn’t give up much for Aoki, and he’s worth a gamble for this season. Certainly not like he’s blocking Wil Myers in RF. He’ll be an improvement over Lough likely…. and it allows Gordon to drop out of leadoff
Dock_Elvis
I actually had a high ranking member of an NL organization ask me “What the h*** is going on in Kansas City?” And he wondered aloud if the Glass family was meddling again. Moore has been, if anything, TOO in love with his prospects. Then he seems to have counteracted that perception by dealing Myers
jimfetterolf
KC tried the good offense OF/bad pitching in ’11 and didn’t win a lot of games, so Moore, wisely I thought, traded a defensive liability with holes in his swing along with three other minor leaguers for a couple of rotation pieces. The result was 86 wins. Myers might be good, maybe an Alex Gordon type, or he may be Jeff Francoeur. Dayton made the move that would take the team the next step and it worked, a bridge to Ventura and the next wave, forced because the Duffy/Montgomery/Dwyer wave busted.
Dock_Elvis
I don’t have as near of a problem with the Myers/Shields as some do. But I think your underselling Myers. He doesn’t comp to Gordon well and will likely outperform Hosmer. The big issue with the deal has been the stalling of Butler/ Hosmer/ moose. Moore has yet to show that he’s anything more than a talented scout. 4 Years on Vargas was crazy
jimfetterolf
Gordon used to hit moon shots in Omaha, then had some adjustment problems. Like Gordon, Myers Ks and BBs quite a bit, unlike Gordon Myers will never be confused for a competent defender. He could be good, I just don’t see him as a Mike Trout guy. I think Gordon’s a good value comp at top and don’t see Myers being a Hosmer. I wonder if Tampa thinks they could have made the Series if they still had Shields? David Lough matched Myers fW, so Royals didn’t lose on that last season.
As for Vargas, Moore got what he needed, a Quality Start pitcher good for a couple of hundred innings. More than six innings, three or less runs, then give the game to a great bullpen.
Dock_Elvis
I don’t think TB thinks they were cheated on any way by that deal. Myers has more mlb power than Gordon or Hosmer NOW. Hosmer would have been a better deal. .290 15 hr 1bs are easier to find. I just see no reason to give a #5 sp like Vargas 4years. They could go year to year and replace his value
jimfetterolf
Power has a lot to do with the park. There’s a reason the Royals’ HR record is 36. The K is a big step up from Omaha, both for a right handed hitter and an OF. Myers may well be good, but last year the team was better without him and will be this year also. And he may become Clint Hurdle.
Dock_Elvis
You make logical arguments… but it ultimately likely ends bad for KC. 86 wins won’t get it done this season
jimfetterolf
With Infante, Aoki, and apparently Ventura, I’m guessing 90 wins, give or take some health and luck. Better team this year than last even without Butler and others rebounding.
Dock_Elvis
Could happen…there’s just not much room for error. Butler wasn’t as bad as people think in 2013
jimfetterolf
Billy turned into a singles hitter as pitchers worked him down and away and didn’t care if he walked. This year Gordon will be behind him, benefit of having a true lead off in Aoki. I expect a good year from Billy. He may be the easiest projection on the team.
Dock_Elvis
Just don’t expect 30 HR.
jimfetterolf
20-25 with 45 doubles would work. Three decent OBP guys ahead of him, should be productive. George Brett only hit 30 HRs once. Not sure an extra homer every week or two is something to worry about.
Dock_Elvis
Yep. Really the only surface flaw I see is the rotation after Shields. And I suppose a strong pen could mitigate that some.
jimfetterolf
The rotation lost Santana, Mendoza, and Davis and gained Vargas, Chen, and apparently Ventura. I can live with that.
Dock_Elvis
I’ll take Vargas and Chen over those #6 starters. Ventura might step up and be a #3 starter.. factoring in an inning cap. I like Ventura-Chen-Vargas 3-5 even if I don’t like 4 years on Vargas. I still think they try and add an arm.
jimfetterolf
I would note that the Royals had a losing record in games Santana started. Likely looks to be Shields, Vargas, Ventura, Guthrie, and Chen. Duffy got bombed today, so he’s out of the race, will get to spend a couple of months at Omaha to tighten things up. Has stuff, lacks command.
Dock_Elvis
That just does not look like a 90 win rotation. But in this day and age with two wild cards..anything is possible..but I see the WCs coming out of the East or West…I think the Twins and Sox have improved in the Central
jimfetterolf
Did last year’s look an 86 win season? I think the rotation is stronger now than last year, won’t get 15 starts from Mendoza and 25 from Davis. That’s about a quarter of last year’s starts.
Dock_Elvis
I thought before last year that KC looked like a team that might go Oakland on the AL…still feel that way…but they have a ton of “ifs”…Could be a 90 win team or a flop and go under .500
jimfetterolf
Don’t see under .500, even with a bunch of injuries like 2012, but I doubt any of us predicted the Jays last year or the Indians.
Dock_Elvis
Shields goes down, or they have significant injuries to the heart of the order. Be nice to see them take a run at Detroit… just to avoid the WC log jam. I could see the Tigers slipping back a few games. Cleveland gets a season of Danny Sanchez
jimfetterolf
Maybe Verlander goes down. Always a possibility and usually unpredictable. Cain is our most likely to go down, Infante probably next, maybe Esky with the shoulder. Main thing Royals need to do is avoid another bad May, dug a deep hole.
Dock_Elvis
As always, it will come down to how they play within the division. I look for both MN and CHI to put better teams on the field…especially MN after the break. I really believe that the Twins are a dark horse .500 team
jimfetterolf
Should be a tighter race this year because of that.
Dock_Elvis
Just imagine if some combo of Montgomery/ Duffy/Lamb had panned out
jimfetterolf
Yep. That’s why the team changed pitching philosophy a couple of years ago. I expect Duffy up by June, latest. Lamb has started to regain velocity, so is looking more up, still has secondaries and control, may turn back into a prospect this year if he can throw an average of 92, about what Shields does. He was hitting low 90s last week after some serious off season training.
Jack 20
Chen was resigned to be a waiting block for Zimmer. Once Zimmer arrives chen will go back to the bullpen like last year. Everyone is forgetting about Kyle Zimmer. Guy is going to be a stud with mid 90’s heater and monster curveball. He has #1 potential and if he can pitch like his comparisons (Wacha and Gray) then I really don’t see a huge need to resign Shields. Of course I would love to see the royals resign Shields but they can’t afford 20 million a year. Ventura is ready and Zimmer will be ready after the all-star break if he’s healthy. If they really wanted to they could go out and sign or trade for a middle of the rotation arm if Ventura and Zimmer pitch to their potential. Vargas will give the royals an innings eater that will save the bullpen.
Dock_Elvis
Be nice to have that #1-2 sp to let Zimmer and Ventura settle in with their inning max…one more year on Shields would have been nice.
Bob Bunker
I don’t understand the Shields trade if he is let go. I mean did the team honestly think they would make the playoffs last year or this year just by adding Shields? If not it would have been better to keep Myers and win 80 or less games (better draft pick) both years with sights on 2015 and beyond as the contending window.
Dock_Elvis
I think there’s an issue this season in not backing Shields in the rotation. It’s Shields and some #4 starters. To be fair…I think KC tried to better the rotation and were rebuffed.. publicly when Santana declined the QO
jimfetterolf
Yeah, they did think they were a couple of pitchers short. And the pitching staff did the job, but were let down by off years from Butler, Gordon, Cain, and Escobar along with the failure to develop by Moose. Moore’s view was that it was time to win and establish that mentality and so far he’s succeeded. Tampa did a similar thing several years ago, went out of character and signed a pricy FA to break them out of years of losing. It’s a risk, Royals fell short, but made it interesting. This year they have an even better team, so have a chance to take the next step.
Dock_Elvis
Off years? I agree that if KC hits on ALL offensive cylinders they might win…but that accounts for no regression of the pitching staff…and health. They made a run at Beltran and Santana and lost… that would of helped
jimfetterolf
Beltran would have been overwhelmed in RF at the K, worst full time defender in the game last year. He’s a DH in a grown up park, but should be alright at Yankee Stadium and in the East, less real estate to cover. If KC just gets a couple out of the five or six underachievers to step up it may be enough. That’s why they play the game.
Dock_Elvis
The same thing could be said for half the teams in baseball..lol. I’ll give you a 100% guarantee.. 2014 will be more fun to watch than a bucket of Mark Quinn pop outs
Dock_Elvis
My first thought when I heard the Myers/Shields deal was.. really? Because I felt they were trying to work out a David Price deal
Vandals Took The Handles
Last year Francona got the Indians to the playoffs by propping up Ubaldo and Kazmir. Very seldom did either get to the 7th inning, often leaving around the 5th. Tito did it by having a deep pen. On the other hand, the Indians defense was inconsistent, oftentimes keystone-koppish.
The Royals have the best defense and bullpen in the AL. They can carry a few so-so starters even if all that they can get out of them is 5 innings. It’s how MLB is being played today. We should be seeing 26 and 27 man rosters shortly, as calling up fresh pitchers from AAA 2 or 3 times a week is getting old.