Chances Of Lackey Trade Are “Very Good”

3:00pm: The Indians are indeed interested in Lackey, tweets Rosenthal. Two teams that aren’t in play, he adds, are the Angels and Brewers.

12:01pm: There’s now a “very good chance” that the Red Sox will trade John Lackey as well as Jon Lester, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (via Twitter). Lackey has been known to be available for days, but there had also been speculation that Boston could work out some form of extension with the right-hander.

Lackey’s five-year, $82.5MM contract with the Red Sox contained a clause that gave Boston a 2015 club option at the league minimum in the event that he missed significant time with an elbow injury. A torn ulnar collateral ligament that required Tommy John surgery triggered that clause, making Lackey a highly appealing trade chip even to teams with the most modest of payrolls.

Lackey will likely want an extension regardless of where he ends up, Rosenthal adds (Twitter links), but that’s not necessarily an unappealing concept for teams in search of a starter that can be controlled beyond 2014. Rosenthal lists the Indians and Marlins as two such clubs.

The Dodgers and Royals have shown interest in Lackey already, and reports yesterday indicated that the Marlins may prefer Lackey to Lester, as the asking price could be lesser. However, the asking price on Lackey isn’t exactly tame, as ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported yesterday that Boston wants an established big league starter in return (presumably, one with team control beyond 2015). Indeed, as Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald tweets, the BoSox aren’t likely to move both Lackey and Lester without getting starting pitching in return.

In 326 2/3 innings dating back to last season, Lackey has reestablished himself as a solid big league starter. He’s posted a 3.55 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9, averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per outing.


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77 Comments on "Chances Of Lackey Trade Are “Very Good”"


Antonio Alexsander langston
1 year 1 month ago

A package of Lackey and Miller should do be enough to get a return on par with what we get for Lester. Just get something done Ben.

Adam
1 year 1 month ago

What? No, it wouldn’t be. A 35-yr old Innings Eater and a Loogy won’t get you a package near what Lester would bring in.

Alz147
1 year 1 month ago

I’ve never seen a Loogy that can get righties out. No matter what you say, Miller’s value is veeery healthy…same goes for Lackey, who is proven to be a top notch playoff performer. Plus he comes cheap…
We’re talking Shark-territory. While JS is obviously much younger than Lackey, he’s under control for the same amount of time.

Adam
1 year 1 month ago

Loogy may have been a misstep on my part. In fact, his last two years is actually better against RHP than LHP. But he is still a non-closing reliever and I’d be surprised if he and Lackey get a better return than Lester. Lester is the same age as Miller, has been more valuable, and arguably almost as dominant.

Red Socks
1 year 1 month ago

Last 2 years Lackey has been worth about $600k a start… say he makes 10 more starts this year, and 30 next year, that’s $24mil in open market value, and he’ll cost basically nothing, in fact, I’m sure that the Sox would eat the entire remaining 2014 salary for the right return. The fact he may basically cost nothing salary wise, is an incredible asset for a team like Pittsburgh that’s trying to keep their costs down while improving their current team imo. And if he holds out refusing to play for 500k, and wants a 2year $20mil extension or something similar, give it to him or you could trade him preseason, someone is going to want to cash in on 2 years of a reliable number 2 for well below market value right?

Adam
1 year 1 month ago

There is no way that he is a number two and will be 36 next year. Guy has exactly one season of ERA under 3.50. He is a reliable, innings-eating, middle-to-end of the rotation guy. That doesn’t get you much at 35 years old in return for a trade, sorry, but it just doesn’t compare to Lester’s value.

basemonkey
1 year 1 month ago

Agreed.

So many folks on baseball comment boards just add up the value of their spare parts, and figure other teams will give you their best. Other teams don’t want your spare parts. By this rationale, however many it might take, you could theoretically trade, say, 30 decent role players for just one of their studs. How many Danny Valencia’s add up to one Kershaw?

It has a lot to do with their specific roster needs.

Adam
1 year 1 month ago

Yeah, people also tend to (and I am including myself as well) overvalue their own team’s players. Thank god we don’t run any front offices.

Also, I can see a team out there saying “We are ONE starter away from a championship this year, let’s go get a great one” and offering a huge ransom for Lester. I think Lackey + Miller would net two good prospects, but I think Lester could land a Top 50 prospect and another second tier guy and maybe parts. I don’t particularly think Lackey and Miller aren’t good pieces (though as a Marlins fan, I’ll never be able to love Miller again), I just think Lester and the lure of an Ace brings in better offers, regardless of money.

Danielle Rennifer
1 year 1 month ago

Mariners can use couple more hitters and a starting pitcher as current fourth/fifth starting pitcher has been struggling lately.

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

You want to trade Lackey for an established big league starter? Why not just resign him. He’s already an established big league starter. Oh wait, I forgot. The Red Sox are poor and need young controllable arms.

snowbladerp14
1 year 1 month ago

they have a 150 million payroll and are 5th in the league dont act like they are pinching pennies. Lackey will be 36 next year not exactly young. I think age is more a concern then money

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

Right, but he had Tommy John in 2012, so you’ve got to figure you’d be able to get at least another few years out of his arm. They have a minor league full of young controllable arms. This is becoming silly.

Bleed_Orange
1 year 1 month ago

This is very smart. They are going into next year with a clean deck and can attack the free agent market head on as well as restocking the far for years to come.

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

Right but when your free agent philosophy prevents you from signing any players for more than four years it doesn’t exactly vault you to the top of the market.

flickadave
1 year 1 month ago

Yeah but what good do the arms in the farm system do you if you never give them a shot? To be clear, I don’t consider 3 starts a fair sample

dc21892
1 year 1 month ago

There’s not a great class coming up. It’s not a smart move. FA pitchers are hard to acquire especially with the way LA is willing to throw money around now. Even if they give Lackey 15-17M next year instead of 400k, it’s still better than overpaying grossly for a pitcher on the market

Bob Bunker
1 year 1 month ago

Well for pitching there is Ervin Santana, James Shields, Lester, Scherzer, Jason Hammel, and Kenta Maeda. Also Brett Anderson, Josh Johnson, Billingsly, and Gavin Floyd as bounce back buy low guys.

The following year has Cueto, Fister, Jordan Zimmerman, Mat Latos, Rick Porcello, Shark, Ian Kennedy, Kris Medlen, Mike Leake, David Price, Kazmir, Gallardo, Iwakuma, and Lincecum.

sherrilltradedooverexperience
1 year 1 month ago

awesome observation, Victoria. The best years are the second and third after TJ.

Adam
1 year 1 month ago

But never ages 36 and 37. TJ doesn’t immediately make a guy 28 again.

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

No it doesn’t, but since he’s currently pitching very well, I can see offering a one year extension and a signing bonus as a way to tack money onto the contract so he doesn’t just retire in lieu of fulfilling his commitment to next year.

sherrilltradedooverexperience
1 year 1 month ago

if you end up in the situation the sox are in with Lester, I think it’s not unfair to question whether the sox are pennywise and pound foolish.

Christopher Henderson
1 year 1 month ago

$80 million is committed for 2015, Pedroia is officially the only player signed for 2016 ($13 million). The payroll is gonna go South from here on out

snowbladerp14
1 year 1 month ago

yea i am sure the redsox wont buy any players this offseason. But hey extend all your guys super long so you can have a ton of super aging vets just like the yankees that spend half their time on the DL. I am an Orioles fan I wont complain

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

God let’s hope not. They have 100 million to play with, they’d better at least approach 180.

mlbaustin
1 year 1 month ago

Why does money matter? The A’s are doing fine.

snowbladerp14
1 year 1 month ago

red sox and yankee fans will just never get it

flickadave
1 year 1 month ago

Won’t get what? Championship rings? I think the 2 teams are doing OK in that regard.

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

You can’t call money ball a success unless it is able to bring championships. It’s a nice story and a good way to remain competitive, but unless a World Series victory is the outcome, ultimately it’s just a great, creative way to be almost the best.

captainmonk
1 year 1 month ago

do the Orioles have 3 championships in last 10 years
do Red Sox have the aging vets that cant play like the Yankees
do the Orioles have one of the best farm systems in the league?

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

Because we can’t wait ten years for money ball to succeed.

snowbladerp14
1 year 1 month ago

cant or wont

flickadave
1 year 1 month ago

Both?

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

Won’t. There’s no reason to play money ball if you have money. Particularly if your ticket prices are the highest in baseball.

jv1975disqus
1 year 1 month ago

They don’t even need to resign him – he’s signed for $500k for next year already. Agreed, this makes no sense at all.

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

Right, but he has pretty much stated through his agent that there is no way he would play for the minimum, so you’re looking at a modest extension so you can give him more money. Otherwise he’ll probably retire.

jv1975disqus
1 year 1 month ago

I’ve heard that. I’m not sure he’d go through it with though – if he did, he’d instantly become one of the most hated men in baseball by not living up to his end of the bargain.

Personally, I can’t think of any player that I would hate more than him if that were to happen, all PED users included.

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

I think the rest of baseball would understand. They don’t forgive PED’s but they are cool with getting every last dime possible. I would think he was horrible, but I don’t think Lackey really cares what the fans think of him.

flickadave
1 year 1 month ago

I think that if he refused to fulfill his contract that he would fall into the same purgatory that ended Barry Bonds’ career. The fact is, you can only play if a team is willing to have you.

jv1975disqus
1 year 1 month ago

I don’t know – I’d be quicker to forgive PEDs than I would with this. Here, Lackey would essentially be cheating Boston out of ~$15 Million. At least when guys are suspended for PEDs their teams don’t have to pay them.

Also, I’d be a little more sympathetic if we were talking about some journeyman who didn’t have 9 figures in the bank.

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

Not really, the year Lackey lost to TJS was likely covered by insurance. It’d be a bad move for sure, but it’s hard to feel bad for a team that already has tons of money but refuses to pay it to extend Jon Lester.

Bob Bunker
1 year 1 month ago

I understand being skeptical of Lackey with his attitude (especially if 2015 isn’t a contending year) and his age but trading him only makes sense if the Red Sox are commited to going 6 150 for Lester. Then you trade Lackey +Lester for two good hauls and you have the pieces to contend with many good young players or do a couple different big trades.

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

Right, but I think you’re playing chicken if you trade Lester and then try to resign him in the off season. You already have one of the best farms in the Majors. Keep Lester and resign him. There are players ready in the minors and you’re unwilling to promote them or package them for other things you need? It’s silly. I can accept trading Lackey if they get a near ready right handed power bat for shortstop or left field. But I cannot accept trading Lester if the intent is still to resign him. That’s too dangerous.

Bob Bunker
1 year 1 month ago

i think trading Lester doesn’t hurt the chances at re sign him so its not too dangerous but trading him and Lackey could backfire real bad real quick!

The other thing I am confused about is the 40 man roster crunch that the team is going to face. The way I look at it you let Ross/Butler off the 40 Man for Swihart, Carp/Drew/Herrera/Lavarnway and maybe Middlebrooks opens up 3 to 5 spots in the IF, and Gomes walks opening up a spot in the OF.

Seems like there are plenty of spots for any prospects they want to protect. Also, when is a player eligible for the rule 5 draft like will Matt Barnes be or Devin Marrero.

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

There’s only a few that will be. it’s after 4 years if you were signed after the age of 17 and after 5 years if you were signed before 17.

selw0nk
1 year 1 month ago

Why do so many teams pay so much with more year’s then later trade them? What a waste.

Karkat
1 year 1 month ago

Just don’t GIVE them away, Ben. I’d love to see Lester get a chance to compete somewhere this year, but not for peanuts.

I still think we should extend Lackey though. He’s been so solid since the surgery.

sherrilltradedooverexperience
1 year 1 month ago

trading for Lackey wouldn’t be a win now move for contenders, but Lackey’s contract pretty much would eliminate the need to court 4th rotation spot guys for 8-12 million to fill. A lot of teams go through comeback type guys (haren, colon harang arroyo, tim hudson who’s probably the best example of this) who are 4-5th spot guys. To get that for the minimum is a good asset, but not a help you down the stretch deal.

Christopher Henderson
1 year 1 month ago

I’m confused… Buster Olney had recently said the Sox plan on giving Koji the 1 yr $15 million qualifying offer…. They’re gonna give a 40 year old closer $15 million for one year, while at same time have a rookie rotation led by Clay Buchholz. If you’re going into rebuilding mode, might as well blow it all up

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

It doesn’t preclude additional trades or free agent signings. Because a rotation led by Buchholz could be the worst in Red Sox history. As for a QO for Koji, that is way too much to pay a closer. They could easily sign him for less than that. Although it would ensure no one would make him a better offer.

nsbombers
1 year 1 month ago

This red sox ownership is too smart for their own good.Who the trades their ace.Their offer in the spring was insulting.They offered Lester the amount of money as Lackey when they signed him years ago.Sometimes you have to go beyond to resign the player.They haven’t countered with an offer since then.Money is no object with this group.

jv1975disqus
1 year 1 month ago

I don’t understand the Lackey talk at all. The Red Sox start every year in “win now” mode. Isn’t a $500k Lackey a great piece for them in 2015?

They’re obviously not going to get a *better* young, cost-controlled starter in return, so the Sox are basically saying they want a worse pitcher that they can control for a longer period of time. This doesn’t make sense for a team that wants to win in 2015.

Devern Hansack
1 year 1 month ago

I’m not terribly sure why the Red Sox are insisting on receiving starters in exchange. They already have De La Rosa, Escobar, Workman, Webster, Owens, and Ranaudo close to or at major league readiness and Buchholz and Doubront.

Christopher Henderson
1 year 1 month ago

They need power in the minor leagues

flickadave
1 year 1 month ago

I agree. At this point, the Sox need bats

Antonio Alexsander langston
1 year 1 month ago

There was talk about the Red Sox maybe having to put together a trade package for someone because of the 40 man roster crunch. Maybe they’re assuming a package built aaround young pitching prospects will net them the biggest return?

Devern Hansack
1 year 1 month ago

I suppose that could be the case. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them go after Hamels and/or a good hitting outfielder or shortstop/third baseman. Still though, pitching prospects are incredibly volatile commodities and I do believe that most general managers at this point realize that.

Victoria Roberts
1 year 1 month ago

I think they’re looking to have another team do all the work of having the young players Major League ready and just reap the benefits. It’s a nice strategy, but why would someone want to invest all that time and money in a player to trade him for Lackey? It doesn’t really make a ton of sense. You’re trading for someone who is young and controllable and worse than Lackey. Why is that a solid move for the future?

Rally Weimaraner
1 year 1 month ago

Without Lester and Lackey the Red Sox rotation would certainly lack proven starters. Having MLB ready depth in a must as injury and ineffectiveness is sure to take its tole on any rotation.

Danielle Rennifer
1 year 1 month ago

Either would work out well w/ the Mariners if the Red Sox can include Victorino/Gomes for pretty good return.

Rally Weimaraner
1 year 1 month ago

Big Papi, really? Hes not getting traded ever not to mention he would throw the world’s biggest tantrum if the Red Sox even mentioned trading him.

Danielle Rennifer
1 year 1 month ago

Instead of Big Papi, Gomes/Victorino can provide power for the Mariners if either is a better choice of being moved.

Christopher Henderson
1 year 1 month ago

They need to have someone other than Buchholz as the veteran of the staff. The rookies tend to gravitate towards them. Buchholz never has accountability when he’s had a bad game.

Danielle Rennifer
1 year 1 month ago

Paxton is in his second season in MLB level that can bring some experience should Cherrington & Jack Z are busy on the phones to make a move.

CharlieMurphy
1 year 1 month ago

Agreed, they should be looking for corner IF/OF power bats, which they are lacking in the minors. Although for all the pitching depth in the Sox system, they don’t really have any guys who profile as front-line starters… so it couldn’t hurt to keep their options open.

Danielle Rennifer
1 year 1 month ago

Lackey or Lester in Mariners uniform would work if Gomes or Victorino have some value (whichever of the two is not too injury prone) for James Paxton/Brandon Maurer, Tyler Pike, Gabriel Guerrero, Nick Franklin/Brad Miller, and a player to be named as Patrick Kivelhan (that can also play first base) will also work unless Red Sox want more. Franklin/Miller to the Nationals in a three way trade definitely will help after learning that Ryan Zimmerman has Grade 3 Hamstring injury (Rendon can slide to third base, while Franklin/Miller can play second base to bat eighth in the starting lineup or come off the bench).

CharlieMurphy
1 year 1 month ago

Gotta imagine that Ben C will be looking to snag Peterson in any deal with the Mariners. They don’t need anymore middle infield guys and desperately need some depth at 1B in the minors

Danielle Rennifer
1 year 1 month ago

If Peterson is traded, the Mariners should draft a first baseman of his caliber next year that will make the team happy.

captainmonk
1 year 1 month ago

is there something the matter with expecting Lackey to fulfill the contract he signed
we paid him when he was useless

Uriel Alessandro
1 year 1 month ago

My thoughts exactly.

Ricky Rios
1 year 1 month ago

I would not mind a return to Anaheim, but I don’t think the Halos have anymore trade chips.

Red Socks
1 year 1 month ago

Their top 3 prospects according to MLB Pipeline are their first 3 picks in this years draft, their system is disgustingly bad.

Red Socks
1 year 1 month ago

Their top 3 prospects according to MLB Pipeline are their first 3 picks in this years draft, their system is disgustingly bad.

GrilledCheese39
1 year 1 month ago

Josh Bell, Alen Hanson, JaCoby Jones, Adrian Sampson, Jose Tabata, and Brandon Cumpton for Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Andrew Miller

Chris Vinnit
1 year 1 month ago

Way too much for the Pirates to give up. Two of those guys are rentals. The market for Lester is already softening as its clear nobody is giving up their top prospects for him. And Lackey may be due the league minimum next year but everybody says he’ll sit home and sulk unless his new team extends him a second year at $10-14 million. If the Pirates want to be tied down to an old expensive middle/back of the rotation starter for the next two years, they might as well go after AJ. He’d be way cheaper to acquire.

Rally Weimaraner
1 year 1 month ago

Who ever thought the Angels were involved? They don’t have any pitching prospects or much else to trade.

First Bleed
1 year 1 month ago

Can the Brewers just move on from the SP fad… they need hitting or RP more than SP. Not sure whey they are ‘in’ on all these pitchers when that really isn’t a need.

YankeeFan™
1 year 1 month ago

Boston trading everyone might as well get rid of Ortiz to lol