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Eric 23
Are major league front offices really this reactionary? Three data points from this year are enough to completely shape your plan?
Bryan Curley
Typically, yes, they are this reactionary. I also think if you look at the list of free agent batters (provided by MLBTR to the right) it’s pretty obvious there are more impact pitchers available. I’d also rather gamble on a 27-year-old athletic OF for $12MM per year than almost any of the available batters. Reactionary or not, Castillo is probably just a plain ol’ good deal.
Pat 2
Or… the Sox just paid 12 mil a year for a 4th OF pinch runner. Enjoy that in 2020.
Bryan Curley
Even if that’s the case, average offense, good speed, and good defense will be worth $12-15MM in 2020.
Pat 2
Average offense is a stretch. The rest is worth a replacement level minor leaguer with legs.
evan 3
His offense will be better than you think. He’s a potential 5-tool talent. Think Shane Victorino in his prime. Good at everything but not quite elite.
Pat 2
Why? Wishful thinking or factual evidence? his Cuban numbers (A+ or AA comparable) don’t top what you are projecting in year one
Elsalvaje
Cuban League is like A or AA in quality but players never get they pick playing there, Chapman ERA in Cuba was over 4 all the time and don’t forget that they just play 90 games, this guy is 30 pounds heavier (pure muscle) and faster than 6 months ago when he was playing in Cuba,
Pat 2
So you’re saying a 27 year old put up mediocre numbers in the equivalent of A+ ball, and is worth 12 mil a year? He might be an average-ish player if all goes well, and the AAV of the contract really isn’t that bad… but I wouldn’t want my team to tell me they’re trotting out a mediocre players for the next six years.
evan 3
Forget his Cuban numbers. There is no way to objectively translate those. Again, Aroldis Chapman had a +4 ERA in Cuba. Obviously the Red Sox liked Castillo based on his tools/scouting reports/workouts, plus the fact he’s added tons of muscle. They wouldn’t pay him 12 mil unless they thought he was worth it. You are pretending like you’ve got him completely figured out.
Elsalvaje
This guy (Castillo) has a higher ceiling than Victorino, he looks more like Puig o Cespedes, we are talking about 5 tools here, Victorino only had 2 and now has 1
evan 3
Victorino in his prime was a .290 type hitter with 15 hr 30 sb + great defense and strong arm. That’s not 5-tool on a Mike Trout level, but it’s still 5-tool on the lighter side.
Pat 2
He’s 27… he’s at his ceiling, and it’s well below Victorino. That is just a ridiculous statement to make
Dynasty22
Or… the Sox just paid 12 mil a year for a possibly good outfielder. They may enjoy that in 2020.
Pat 2
Good defense and speed but not a good bat – sounds like a 4th OF to me, and many scouts agreed. Red Sox negotiated against themselves on this one. Awful signing, but not that expensive that it holds back a team
Dynasty22
I’m not sure where you got the many scouts part from. Law’s piece only mentioned that not all scouts are unanimously in love with Castillo’s hitting. Obviously, the Red Sox like his hitting enough to sign him. You can’t call the guy a 4th outfielder based on the opinions of a few scouts. Castillo should be up in the majors soon and we will all have time to judge him for ourselves.
homer 2
If scouts had the crystal ball Mike Trout would have gone #1 and about a hundred #1’s would not have.
Ralph Esposito
Yankee fans may enjoy it more in 2020.
108 stitches 2
The Yankees might be more concerned with a 36 year old Ellsbury making 21.5 million at that point.
rich 3
And you’ve seen him play how many innings? The scouting slant towards Castillo was average until his workouts when they improved dramtically. Enough scouts had a positive reaction to what they saw that the Sox could afford to do this. Almost everybody agrees he’s a plus defender, plus runner, and has12-15 HR power. Even if he hits for a low average that sounds like a 3 WAR player which fits right into his salary structure. As far as 2020, the Sox have very little money tied up long term…. they’re not the Yankees with $150+ million tied up until the end of time. And unlike the Yankees they have cheap young high minor talent everywhere they look so their long term needs are limited. All they have on the books is Pedroia’s which will be dead $ but not a backbreaker. They could afford to do this, and they will open up the books for pitching this winter like the article said.
Ralph Esposito
This could have all been avoided if Herb Washington was available.
ztoa
Jackie Bradley makes what… >500K? They might get the same production for 12 mil a year…
Bryan Curley
Bradley is having one of the worst seasons (offensively) in baseball history so I’d say any comp to Bradley is more than a worst case scenario.
ztoa
Except they are paying him more than Jay Bruce, McCutchen, Gomez, and Stanton.
Bryan Curley
And paying him less than Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Josh Hamilton, Shin-Soo Choo, and Carlos Beltran. Anyone can cite several examples on either end of the value spectrum, but within the context of the league a $12MM player needs to be worth 2-3 wins and that’s not exceedingly difficult.
ztoa
You named a bunch of injury prone or over the hill players. I named STAR caliber players.
108 stitches 2
Yeah but you cherry picked. Not one of those guys has even had a good sniff of free agency. If you’re the Sox or any high payroll team, you jump at the chance to sign his guy to the contract he got. Especially with some of their prospects/youngsters. Never look at any move in a vacuum for a big market team. That’s not how MLB operates.
Jeff Scott
I think the Red Sox were asking a lot from JBJ this year and he wasn’t quite ready. He had 95 MLB at bats and they made him “the guy” in centerfield right out of the gate. They should have sent him back to AAA a while ago but instead they chose to LET him have one of the worst offensive seasons in MLB history. I’m not ready to say JBJ will never hit, they may have thrown him in over his head.
DarthMurph
Are you forgetting about Grady Sizemore?
Jeff Scott
Well, yes and no. I did forget he was in the mix, but even looking back, I saw him more as a project considering his time away from the game. No one really knew what they would get with him so if he was considered the solution he shouldn’t have been.
DarthMurph
How you saw him doesn’t change the fact that he had a great Spring Training and saw plenty of playing time for the Sox. Obviously that didn’t work out, but it doesn’t change the fact that JBJ was most certainly not handed the starting job.
dubinsky
lot of money for a guy with no demonstrated success at the major-league level.
Sox seems to be counting on the better things for better living through chemistry regimen from Cuban players.
ROR1997
This guy hit .315 in Cuba. That’s not good.
start_wearing_purple
… why?
ROR1997
Didn’t Cespedes hit like .350 in Cuba…
start_wearing_purple
“This guy hit .315 in Cuba. That’s not good.”
Still asking why.
ROR1997
I already told you. You should be hitting better in Cuba. To hit only .315 isn’t good.
start_wearing_purple
I’m going to paraphrase Ken Burns: Baseball is a game where those who can hit the ball 3 out of 10 times are considered heroes.
ROR1997
Yes. In the MLB. The Cuban leagues aren’t as competitive as the MLB so only hitting .315 doesn’t translate well into the MLB. Thin k about it this way, if somebody was 27 years old in AA hitting .315, and you sent him straight to the Majors, is he still going to hit .315?
Alex Henry
Abreu hit .330 which is not that much different i mean somewhat but not huge
Ralph Esposito
You’re right. He will be a better hitter than Abreu. Just keep telling yourself that. Better than Abreu. Better than Abreu. No! I can’t do it.
Alex Henry
Telling myself what i do not even like the guy or care about him? I was just added another point of reference and no i do not think he will be better then Abreu
Jim McGrath 2
What would you expect him to hit?
Alex Henry
I see a .275 hitter maybe .280 i’m not overly high on him but he could prove me wrong he is no McCutchen that i have seen him being compared to
Jim McGrath 2
How many of you contributors actually saw Castillo work out? I would venture to say BenC and several scouts from the Sox watched the workout(s) and they talked , made comparisons and got many opinions from people that have seen him play.
It’s possible he could be a bust–there are plenty of FA players that have been busts and many an agent that has sold their product to would be GM’s.
To pay $12 M a year you would hope you get a good product to count on. If he can win 3-4 games per year and play some good D and bat about .250 like Cespy–the Sox will have made a good deal. The key it didn’t cost them any prospects which allows them to pursue Hamels, maybe Stanton or even Tulo.
Lester or Big Game James may also be in their off season shopping .
2015, for the Sox, started a month ago.
Pat 2
4 wins? You expect this guy to give you 4 wins? Fangraphs has David Ortiz at 3.8 wins for 2013! Cut that in half and you might not be so disappointed when he becomes a fourth OF. Your front office paid for a mediocre player who will man your OF for the next 6 years. Not a huge price but way too long a contract.
evan 3
David Ortiz doesn’t play defense so his WAR is limited. You conveniently left that part out of your expert analysis.
Pat 2
Oh my god… 4 WAR is the 36th best player in the majors. That’s really good. It’s better than Brett Gardner, Jonathan Lucroy, and Chase Utley…
My point is simple – temper your expectations Sox fans. You didn’t land Yasiel Puig.
evan 3
Our expectations are tempered. Nobody is expecting a superstar. We are expecting diet Puig, but with better speed and defense.
ivan256
Castillo and Cespedes make it pretty clear the the Sox plan on signing ZERO players this off-season with draft pick compensation.
They want to hold on to that top-5 pick.