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By Steve Adams | at
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slider32
The 100 million plus men in the winter will be Price, Cueto, and Greinke in the winter with the Cubs, Nats, Yanks, Sox, Dodgers, and Giants trying to land them. I think the Cubs definitely land one of them. Price seems to be the right fit, but I think Greinke is the top pitcher to get.
Steve Adams
I’d peg both Price and Cueto far closer to $200MM, with Price exceeding that mark.
thecoffinnail
With Cueto’s injury history I doubt he gets the 7-8 years it would take for him to break $200.. He will probably land a Lester type contract..
Steve Adams
Cueto’s hitting the open market a year younger than Lester did and has a vastly superior track record to Lester. I agree that the injury history — specifically a pair of minor elbow flare-ups in 2015 — could hurt his cause, but I expect him to land somewhere between Lester and $200MM at this stage.
cookiemonster
lester’s career fip is .26 runs lower than cueto’s. lester has also been dominant in the postseason. compare their 200 inning seasons and you can see how much more durable lester has been. when talking about investing that much money teams want as little risk as possible. cueto will get less than lester.
slasher016
Cueto outpitches his FIP every single year. There are others who do it too. It’s either 1) a useful stat for SOME pitchers 2) a crappy stat. I lean to #1 but i’m not convinced.
cookiemonster
yeah thats fine, but to say that is what gives him a “vastly superior track record”
kingjenrry
FIP is a bad stat for Cueto, who always outperforms it due to his ability to generate weak contact. RA9 WAR is a much better measure of his performance than FIP-based WAR, and the truth is that a move to a larger outfield should make his numbers look even better than they have in Cinci.
zerobs
There is no statistical evidence that Cueto’s track record is better than Lester’s. Lester’s K rate was been better throughout his career in the tougher AL.
Math&Baseball
Cause the Cardinals and Pirates have been woeful offensive clubs the past couple years……
Career wise at home in one of the most hitter friendly parks ever Cueto has managed an average of .223 at home and .238 away and held lefties to a .223 average while righties are hitting .235. While John Lester has held righties to .246 avg and lefties to a .242 avg and his home average is .249 pitching mostly at fenway and his road average is .241.
cookiemonster
every team in the a.l east has good offenses, u nitpicked the 2 best from the n.l central
Math&Baseball
I enjoy how you ignored me posting career home numbers which accounts for all teams that play at home- the good bad excellent awful offenses in whatever year.
theo2016
What? U posted random batting averages. Walks and slugging would be more relevant.
slasher016
Are you serious? Lester has had exactly one season with a sub 2.82 ERA — EVER. Cueto has had five IN A ROW.
cookiemonster
in the al east, aka toughest division to pitch in baseball. cueto faced rebuilding teams in the cubs and astros all while getting to face the opposing pitcher, you need to take a broader look.
slasher016
Pitching the AL east is the most overused excuse for performance. The NL central is tough. Cardinals and Pirates have been good for many years. The Cubs are back this year. And the Brewers were a meltdown away from the playoffs just last year. Plus, GABP is tiny.
cookiemonster
cardinals were good because of pitching and unseemly batting average with risp. the majority of the division has been bad. the al east has the best offenses in baseball. u forget the a.l has players paid just to hit where cueto gets to pitch against the jon lesters of the world batting…
cookiemonster
plus fenway is 302 down the rightfield line and 310 to left, so saying great american is tiny makes fenway really tiny.
slasher016
Park Factors: GABP 1.173, Fenway 1.169. GABP is more hitter friendly.
cookiemonster
for 13 and 14 fenway was higher for runs…
cookiemonster
by the way im a cubs fan, they are back, but on the strength of pitching not offense, so see no correlation to that and cueto’s pitching.
slasher016
But if you look at HRs GABP has been higher. And according to FIP the only thing you can control are homers, walks and strikeouts.
cookiemonster
considering a bigger foul ball area allows more outs to be caught, a lengthier infield slows grounders there is way more to park factors than hr’s.
slasher016
Your primary argument was that Lester’s FIP was better. I’m saying FIP is a horrible way to judge a pitcher, especially when one of said pitchers ALWAYS outpitches his FIP. Park factors are definitely different than just HRs, but you can’t use FIP as an argument and then say something other than HRs matters.
cookiemonster
my argument was against him saying cueto is vastly superior. in the 5 year timeframe you used lester has thrown almost 200 innings more than cueto. when factoring that in to a long term deal i would take the guy i get basically a whole extra season out of, especially one who has dominated the world series.
slasher016
142 extra innings, yes that’s why there’s some question marks on how long term of a deal Cueto gets. But while healthy, his numbers are vastly superior.
slasher016
And for the peanut gallery here are the numbers over that 5-year span.
Cueto: 60-32 2.52 ERA, 1.048 WHIP, 821 IP, 3.33 FIP, 154 ERA+
Lester: 61-50 3.56 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, 962.2 IP, 3.48 FIP, 114 ERA+
Cueto is vastly superior.
cookiemonster
no they arent. lester was coming off the best year of his career with better numbers than cueto has ever put up (2.46 era in the a.l with 9k/9 is better than 2.25 in the nl. they arent paying for the first 7 years of someone career they are paying for the next 7 years. so again durability is the most important thing if similar.
slasher016
So you’re saying Lester’s year last year was better than Cueto’s?
Lester 16-11 2.46 ERA, 219.2 IP, 220 K, 1.102 WHIP, 156 ERA+
Cueto 20-9 2.25 ERA, 243.2 IP, 242 K, .960 WHIP, 163 ERA+
Cueto finished 2nd in the Cy Young (behind the NL MVP who had an absolutely absurd year)
Lester finished 4th.
You don’t listen to reason so I’m done with this argument.
cookiemonster
yes, you fail to realize the value of facing the pitcher as a hitter. essentially 2 free outs a game and allows you to work around the hitter in front of him. from a meta standpoint it is huge.
cookiemonster
forgot to add to that, that durability is a skill within itself. you are paying for a whole year of performance including playoffs. that is all.
kingjenrry
Cueto’s a #1. Lester is #2 who has pitched most of his career as a #3. You can’t be serious.
mrkinsm
Injury history means nothing when you’re talking about that size of contract – the team will assuredly buy insurance on whomever the player is (injury history or not).
cookiemonster
injury history means a ton. you are paying them for on field performance, if they arent on the field there is no performance. if a team commits the money they can afford it insurance or not.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
No pitcher needs more then 4years. Its been proven every single time 5+ contracts for pitchers are dumb and never work
kingjenrry
Heyward, Upton, and Céspedes should all be getting ≥$100 million contracts, too
zerobs
I think Jocketty did the right thing. Bruce for Wheeler straight up is stupid, TJ surgery isn’t going to improve Wheeler’s walk rate. Chapman’s best offer was from a non-contender which means the timing isn’t right to trade him. Better to wait and see which of this year’s contenders slip down the stretch because of the ‘pen and see if they up their offers for Chapman in the off-season.
Steve Adams
Assuming your non-contender comment is referencing the D-Backs, Arizona reportedly pulled their offer and moved on because they knew they’d been outbid by other clubs, so can’t really give them credit for the best offer. The Astros and Yankees both made huge pushes for Chapman — it’s just not known which names were on the table.
cookiemonster
i dont believe it was straight up, just that wheeler was the centerpiece. arizona was told they weren’t the best offer, that multiple teams made better offers. im assuming mateo was on the table for chapman just as he was for kimbrel.
RealCarlAllen
I’m surprised Bruce wasn’t moved, but it doesn’t make sense to trade him for Wheeler straight up. He’s got a team-friendly contract through 2017, and I’d say he’s one of the best 20 COF in baseball.
He’d be just as easily moved at next year’s deadline for what would amount to the same price.
Dock_Elvis
Good to hear that my Carlos Gonzalez for Kevin Gausman inclinations had some validity in the Rockies front office according to the report.
Also sounds like DBacks are wanting a sub Price/Cueto tier starter. I really like Gallardo for them
Out of place Met fan
He would fit, but I don’t see him as a Stewart type pitcher.
kingjenrry
Yeah, Gallardo’s too good. Stewart seems to like guys like Hellickson who are terrible but show “grit”.
gooberz
Walt jocketty PLEASE LEAVE!! How do you back out of a Bruce for Wheeler deal? Stupid,stupid,stupid!
easttennredsfan
sir you are 100% wrong , if Bruce keeps hitting a little to LF like he is starting to do he is worth way more then a UN PROVEN [ TJ ] rehab
BoldyMinnesota
Probably because mostly every other GM would back out of that same deal
demoneyes101
I was asking the same thing about Matt Williams. When we have close games, he puts in the pitchers that are more likely to jeapordize the game. We should have swept the Mets at least, and be 4-5 games in the lead not 1.5 games behind. Im quite upset at how awful the bullpen is besides Drew Storen and Papelbon. Blake Treinen is improving but still needs work. We still need to get offense worked on. Our starters should have way more wins than they do now. I love the Nats and support them all the way but this team needs a lot of work this season to make it through October.
Pat Baker
” A long-term pact between the Mets and Cespedes is more likely than a reunion with the Tigers though, Heyman writes, as Detroit isn’t likely to enter a bidding war for the outfielder, let alone win one.”
Really Heyman? Considering that the Mets cannot even SPEAK with Cespedes during free agency until May of 2016, I’d guess your “odds” are a little bit off. Cespedes is NOT going to forgo his 2nd and last crack at free agency in his prime and unlike the Mets, at least the Tigers can negotiate with him. Where do you come up with this dribble?
kingjenrry
Yah, that was a pretty surprising comment.