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By Tim Dierkes | at
Email a copy of '2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings' to a friend
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Brixton
1. Price 7/210M
2. Heyward 10/220M
3. Upton 7/175M
4. Davis 5/110M — Whoever signs him will regret it.
5. Cespedes 6/150M
6. Grienke 5/150M
7. Gordon – 5/115M
8. Cueto – 6/156M
9. Zimmermann 6/150M
10. Leake – 5/80M
stl_cards16 2
I’d rather have Davis at those prices than Cespedes.
Brixton
Davis is Howard 2.0. Mediocre defense, tons of strikeouts, not a great average hitter. All he really brings is OBP and power. Once one of those skills begin to diminish, all of his value is gone. Not to mention he plays a offensive minded position
Tim Dierkes
Howard is an interesting comp. I could see a monster deal with Davis going south after two years or so. But regarding your projected contracts, I do think he’s in good shape for six years. I also thought Hanley was in good shape for five, so maybe I can’t be trusted!
New Law Era
Howard is a perfect comp. As you mentioned, his 2014 campaign is very hard to write off. I also think his OBP is a bit inflated due to his streaky hitting and pitchers respecting his power and pitching around him.
I think the loss of bat speed as he ages will spark a very dramatic decline. We’ve seen that with Howard over the last few seasons.
Best bet for any GM is to stay as far away from Davis as possible.
mstrchef13
I don’t think you have ever actually watched Davis play defense. He is a well above average first baseman and a slightly above average outfielder with a strong arm. Compared to Cespedes, he is a better power hitter, a better on base guy, and a significantly better defender. Cespedes may be a better hitter for average, but that is the only tool he has that is better than Davis.
Brixton
His dWAR is suspect, fangraphs has him between average and slight above average at 1B using UZR/150.
stymeedone
Obviously you haven’t seen much of Cespedes in the OF this year. Excellent range and a much improved glove to go with the cannon arm. Davis doesn’t come close defensively. Cespedes will also lap Davis in a foot race. He’s a much more complete player.
Vandals Took The Handles
Davis is a very good defensive 1B. And please don’t quote me flawed defensive statistics. He has noting in common with Howard in the field at all. He is not Carlos Santana or Jose Abreu at 1B – he makes plays.
New Law Era
UZR/150 likes his defense at 1B for the last 2 seasons.
The comparison to Howard is more geared towards what he brings to the plate. That is where he becomes too much of a risk.
joew
someone like the Pirates would love to have someone at first base with mediocre defense.
bobbleheadguru
Good job Brixton!
Let us assume that you have it right with the contracts. Which contract represents the best deals from a team perspective?
Best deal on that list (using your numbers)? Cueto, Grienke, Gordon.
Brixton
I’m a strong believer in Heyward. I think 6 years of him at what hes capable of from 26-31 years old is worth giving him an extended contract.
One of the reasons I put Gordon lower than some expect is because a fair amount of his value comes from his elite LF defense but you would expect that to diminish after 2-3 years. Rarely is their a guy whos in his mid 30s winning an outfield gold glove. Factor that into the tail end of Heyward’s deal.
I’d stay away from Cespedes, Davis and Grienke personally.
bobbleheadguru
Gordon could turn into Torii Hunter in his later years.
Brixton
Or he could turn into Jeff Francouer. You just don’t know. No team is gonna commit 25M AAV for 6-7 years based on a ‘could.’
New Law Era
As a Cardinals fan I do not want to commit to Heyward. A lot his defensive value comes from his great athleticism. As he ages, his defensive skills will diminish quite rapidly. When that happens, the offense that he brings to the table will no longer justify the money he is going to receive. His early season struggles in April were pretty awful and have destroyed his overall season numbers. He does draw walks but not a clip that would make me feel comfortable doling out the contract he is going to receive. He’s yet another FA I would stay away from and I hope the Cardinals let him walk.
hozie007
I agree 110% on Davis and the erratic play of Cespedes makes him highly suspect. The rest of your list is probably close…maybe Zimm at 6/132 and Leake 5/90 but that’s kind of splitting hairs.
stl_cards16 2
Heyward is also a plus on the bases. He’s above-average to elite at every part of baseball. It’s a valuable package.
ianthomasmalone
Who’s going to pay Chris Davis nine figures? So few teams need a first baseman that the one who wants him isn’t going to be stupid enough to bid against itself. Though Boras will try his “left fielder” trick.
mstrchef13
Unfortunately, history has shown that someone will give him that contract, if not more. Sandoval, Porcello, Shields, Crawford, Upton… the league is littered with contracts that were stupid the day they were signed and have only gotten worse.
ianthomasmalone
Only one of those you listed is a nine figure deal.
I’m not saying that someone isn’t going to pay him. There’s just no opening at first base for any team with a top 15 payroll besides Seattle. Unless the Yankees want to send Tex away, there’s just not enough demand to get him in the range of $140 million.
stl_cards16 2
The Cardinals have a lot of money to spend and nothing exciting at 1B. If they don’t re-sign Heyward, I could see them checking in on Davis.
ianthomasmalone
Assuming Garcia’s option is picked up and Broxton’s isn’t since it’s a mutual, the Cardinals will have 100 million committed to nine players. Which gives them a little wiggle room to sign Davis, but that doesn’t seem like a great way to spend money unless his price comes down.
New Law Era
Mozeliak won’t do it. Too dangerous.
Brixton
I really don’t see why they’d go after Davis when they can get a 30 HR bat at 1B for MLB min in Matt Adams. Plus Brandon Moss has another year
New Law Era
Adams does not have 30 HR power. Adams profiles more as a James Loney type hitter.
And you are correct on Moss. Assuming he is not traded or released, the Cardinals do have him for one more year.
seamaholic 2
Umm, Matt Adams? Not sure what your definition of “exciting” is, but he seems like a cheap Chris Davis, to me.
stymeedone
He has been looking competent in the OF, too. DH is also an option for him. He doesn’t have to fit at 1B.
New Law Era
Little too early to knock Shields’ contract. The rest I think is fair.
As for Davis, there is enough demand for a 1B of his power that someone will give him the money he is seeking. 1B has been a pretty weak position the last few years.
ianthomasmalone
That’s the thing though, there really isn’t that much demand at 1B right now. Most teams with money have them already.
Vandals Took The Handles
Don’t agree at all. Boras will have 6-10 teams bidding on Davis that have the money. The first 3 that came to my mind…..
Giants – a power LH bat behind Posey, move Belt to LF. Won’t hit 40 HR’s playing home games in that park though.
Angels – they need a strong LH, run-producing bat. He can rotate between 1B and DH with Albert, play some corner OF.
Yankees – can they count on Teixeira staying healthy? He can rotate with Tex at 1B and DH. Got that short RF porch. A perfect player for Yankee Stadium.
Brixton
And A-Rod goes where? He DHs everyday. You can’t just exclude their most productive hitter.
Vandals Took The Handles
And when have the Yankees had trouble fitting in highly paid players? Their old veterans get injured all the time. Davis can play 1B, LF, RF. or DH. You think Teixeira , Gardner, Ellsbury (when he’s hurt Gardner plays CF), Beltran and ARod are not going to miss any games in 2016? And Teixeira’s contract expires after 2016 as does Beltran’s.
seamaholic 2
Albert is not DH’ing. The Angels do desperately need a lefty power threat, but it will be an OF or 3B, not 1B/DH. They’ll probably trade for someone like Bruce or Cargo, and then play in FA for pitchers.
Vandals Took The Handles
Davis can play LF or RF. And Albert can play some 3B. Scoscia is known for moving some players around defensively.
Right now David Murphy is batting clean-up. That cannot continue. And they are not a team that can afford to give up a couple of prime players/prospects to take on a bat – their roster and farm system are not that deep. They will be in touch with Boras.
bjsguess
Scoscia is creative but there is absolutely, positively, no way that Pujols will play 3rd. He’s barely passable at 1B these days. Given his knees and total lack of mobility there are NO options for Albert except DH and 1B.
As for moving Davis to the outfield … I suspect that all teams will be a little weary of having a guy they pay $100M+ to play out of position. You don’t shell out $25M a year for a guy that could possibly play a different position.
Davis will play 1B. He’ll be paid very well. But he won’t be getting paid by the Angels.
eggy
You’re forgetting Davis can play 3b and OF in a pinch
donniebaseball
I know I’m supposedly way undershooting here, but I wouldn’t give any more than Cruz was offered last offseason. He’s just so inconsistent
seamaholic 2
Davis is quite an acceptable left fielder, actually. Not every day, but it works.
ianthomasmalone
Acceptable, fine, but if it’s not every day it’s not a major selling point. He still needs to be marketed as a first baseman.
tigerfan1968
Price is interesting but how can he get 30 million a year. That is 1 million dollars per start. Assuming 100 pitches per start that is 10 THOUSAND dollars per pitch.
It is much worse if Toronto signs him with the 75 cent Canadian dollar.
Tim Dierkes
$30MM a year for the current version of David Price is a solid bargain! It’s the tail end of that deal that evens it out.
seamaholic 2
Not for a 30 year old pitcher. No one’s a bargain with the amount of mileage on that arm and his age. $30m is too much to risk one “pop” reducing his value to zero.
Tim Dierkes
I’m talking about what he has done each of the last several years, has easily been worth $30MM per. I do understand his future is not guaranteed.
New Law Era
Good pitching mechanics, solid durability, good track record in any type of park – definitely worth it. He’ll tail off towards the end of the deal but that’s price teams have to pay to get top tier talent. In Price’s case, I can see him still being a productive pitcher towards the end of his deal given his tools. I have to agree with Tim that $30MM as an AAV is fair value. I’m thinking 7 years at least $220 MM. Question now is who gives him that kind of coin? Cubs? Dodgers? Yankees?
seamaholic 2
Red Sox. Seems like their kind of splash.
legit1213
Price relies heavily on his fastball. He won’t be able to “reach back” in the coming years to get out of jams any more. He’s dominant now, yes, but he will become the current version of Verlander.
…but he’ll still get overpaid, by some schmuck team.
Draven Moss
He doesn’t rely on his fastball as much as he use to in order to dominate. He could turn out to be like Verlander, but I think it is unlikely at least for the next few years.
stymeedone
You two need to look at what Verlander has been doing since he got healthy. “Becoming Verlander” may not be what you think it is.
bobbleheadguru
It is probable that a team could get BOTH Zimmerman and Fister for less of a financial commitment than Price. That would have been a crazy idea in April.
Ryan Barnes
Chris Davis has been inconsistent, in that we have no idea when he’ll get hot, if ever as shown in 2014. I would like to think he gets 4yr 85-90Mil and goes to a AL West team.
seamaholic 2
Love to see Davis at Coors Field. Rockies have no 1B next year and will likely have loads of cash. He could hit 50 easy.
Brixton
I think they’d rather just go with Rosario.
Kershawshank Redemption 2
I may be in the minority here, but I think the Orioles would be smart to re-sign Davis. The guy has been spectacular since he moved to Camden and has established himself this year as more than a one-hit wonder.
They let a 40+ HR guy walk last year, don’t make the same mistake again. Those guys are rare and valuable these days.
Vandals Took The Handles
It was a solid article and hard to fault……other then Sobrist should be in the top 10, somewhere. He’s the perfect player for so many teams starting with the Nationals and Cubs.
But the sad thing is, short of Price and Gordon, I think any teams giving those players big bucks for 5 or more years will get burned the majority of the years they hand out. I think Heyward will be fine if he stays with the Cardinals, but playing in the Cardinals system and their atmosphere is heaven for veteran players…..they’re never asked to do anything more then their job, no one expects them to carry the team. I don’t see him doing what he’s done this year if say, he goes back to the Braves.
IMO the best 2014-15 free agent signing based on a player helping his team the most while signing for reasonable money and years – is Kendrys Morales. There will be a Morales this year, and Zobrist may be it.
New Law Era
I agree with you there. This FA class doesn’t get me excited at all. Too much risk involved.
Vandals Took The Handles
The mid and small market teams cannot afford to pay and chance any of those guys. But the teams with large cash flows will step in……they always do.
bjsguess
When has this ever NOT been the case?
Signing FA’s is inherently risky. The best are players that are usually approaching 30. They will demand 6-8 years. Every team knows that the decline phase really kicks in during their early 30’s. You are paying for peak past production but instead will typically only receive a few years of solid value followed by many years of decline.
New Law Era
Matt Holliday is a perfect example of a long term big money contract working out.
stymeedone
Is he an example, or THE example? Can you think of any others?
ianthomasmalone
Manny Ramirez for the Red Sox. Huge deal at the time and despite the attitude, worth every penny.
New Law Era
The question was “when has this ever not been the case?” Holliday is one good example. A-Rod’s first contract is another good example.
jammin502
I think that Greinke could record some historic free agency money. The Dodgers play the “money is no object” card and I doubt that they will want to see Greinke going elsewhere. I could easily see them going 6 or 7 years @ over $30 million per year. Teams like the Cubs and Yankees could help push that number up.
Vandals Took The Handles
Why not? The Dodgers have become the Steinbrenner Yankees.
bobbleheadguru
2 questions come to mind:
1. Is there so much money in the game that all of the Top 4 SPs will get $100M+ each?
2. If so, then why not pay more to get Price (the best) instead of “settling” for Cueto or Zimmerman?
I am not convinced that all four will get what they want.
Brixton
1. Yes.
2. Because if every team who needs a big pitcher started bidding for 1 guy, the difference between Cueto’s deal and Price’s deal will be more drastic because everyone was driving up Price’s money.
MaineSkin
AZ just signed a mega TV deal and need that cleanup guy in RF.
Pollock in 2-hole, Goldy, Cespedes, Lamb and more would be very interesting.
They have Corbin, Bradley, Shipley and Chase as rotation depth, so I hope they go after Cueto with Yeonis.
Gabby Guerrero would do great playing behind Cespedes and grooming his contact skill.
I just don’t think Cespedes will leave the AL unless he thinks this is his last deal. DH helps players like him who’s had soft tissue concerns
smrtbusnisman04a
I dont know. I value defensive metrics and war, but I think Jason Heyward is ovverrated. His bat is not that special and HD badly timed a catch at the wall Saturday against the reds. I would rather invest in Cespedes or Upton.
LH
Am I alone in thinking that Heyward’s play will earn him his next contract and not his age and defense? Bats get paid but not slightly above average ones just because they happen to be 26. $100 MM? Sure. But he SHOULDN’T get 200 .
jasonhsv 2
Another factor should be inconsistency. This year, Heyward has had 4 good (not great) months. His Braves years had similar ups and downs. Don’t see 8-10 years when you don’t know which Heyward you’ll get. And don’t see $20 million per year for a good (not great) player.
Kemajic
I’m surprised that Greinke is rated so low when he’s a serious candidate for the NL Cy Young and has been pitching lights out all year. I also think Heyward is overrated; I understand the age differential, but Heyward is not the difference-maker that Greinke is.
will22
How any team an give Gordon $20 million a season is beyond me. He’s not a game changer, on the wrong side of 30, and coming off an injury marred season. He’s mediocre. I wouldn’t offer $10 million.