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RedRooster
Murphy, Kennedy and Wieters should all get QO’s
YourDaddy
Kennedy was a waste of money at $9.5 million. He had a 4.28 ERA and a 4.51 FIP that shows that his bad ERA was no fluke. He gave up 1.66 HR/9 and he only pitched 168 innings. Giving him either a QO or a long term deal would be an astonishingly bad decision. If another team wants him let him walk.
obsessivegiantscompulsive
He was a waste of money per bWAR and fWAR, but a good portion of that was due to bad luck and thus flukey.
His HR/9 was high because his HR/FB was high at 17.2%, which most pitchers regress to 10%. That’s why a lot of analysts use xFIP, which regresses the HR hit to the mean, and Kennedy had a 3.70 xFIP, which is more in line with what he was paid, and average level starter. And that aligns with his 3.61 SIERA. So, yes, his 4.28 ERA was a fluke.
Plus, part of this was because of the Padres moving their fences in. Without that, he probably would have had a nice season in the mid-3 ERA region, and nobody would be complaining. But him being a flyball pitcher, moving in the fences certainly didn’t help him out.
In addition, it was a fluke that he pitched only 168 innings. He averaged 201.1 IP over his prior 5 seasons. He has been a horse in any rotation he has been in until this season. A hamstring strain costed him time in April, and it happened during his first start. While those do recur, this isn’t a part of the body related to overuse of the pitcher, and a team should be able to handle a starter being out for a few weeks.
A QO would be way too much for him, and I would bet that he would take it in a heartbeat so that he can be well paid in 2016 while trying to pitch well enough to get a big contract after next season. Padres GM would be a fool to offer a QO, as Kennedy would take it.
I could see the Giants signing him to a 3 year contract in the $30-40M range, as he would benefit from AT&T, and they could use a reliable starter.
RedRooster
Kennedy is a Boras client. Boras would never let him take the QO. And because Preller didn’t trade Kennedy at the deadline he really has no choice but to give him a QO. The QO may pay him well for 2016 but Major League ballplayers want long-term job security. Kennedy is about to turn 31, so it’s about time he goes for that long-term contract. He’s not going to get $15.8m annually, but I could see him getting a total guarantee around $40m.
RedRooster
Preller really has no choice but to give him a QO at this point. And there are worse pitchers out there who are getting QO’s like Jeff Samardzija.
rangers fan
If Matt wieters even didn’t get a qualifying offer it would still be risky because he is injury prone
rct
I feel like every story about the Mets not offering Murphy a QO is purported by one ‘rival GM’. I am convinced that this ‘rival GM’ is completely making this up (which brings up another point: why would a ‘rival’ GM know anything about the Mets’ contract plans?).
We know two absolute facts, here: Daniel Murphy will not accept a QO, and some team out there is going to sign him whether he has a QO attached or not. The Mets not offering Murphy a QO would be tantamount to throwing away a 1st round pick. It makes no sense. They will QO him as soon as they’re given the chance.
Even further, Murphy accepting a QO wouldn’t be a big deal. It’d only be a one year deal and would help the Mets bridge the gap to Herrera at 2B and would help David Wright get rest (I can’t see Wright playing more than 120 games even if he’s perfectly healthy).