Email a copy of 'Non-Tender Candidate: Pedro Alvarez' to a friend
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By charliewilmoth | at
Email a copy of 'Non-Tender Candidate: Pedro Alvarez' to a friend
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Brixton
If he got nontendered, an AL team would come in and sign him to a 1/8M deal in a heart beat.
cmb1974
I was just thinking o’s will try for him
Rob66
My thought too if they lose Chris Davis
harmony55
Reading this MLB Trade Rumors non-tender analysis for Pittsburgh corner infielder Pedro Alvarez got me thinking about whether the Seattle Mariners will tender a contract to first baseman/outfielder Mark Trumbo by this Wednesday’s deadline:
Trumbo is one year older than Alvarez and each player remains under team control for one year. Trumbo has a projected 2016 salary of $9.1 million while Alvarez has a projected 2016 salary of $8.1 million.
Trumbo has been valued at 6.1 fWAR in 690 career games while Alvarez has been valued at 6.1 fWAR in 742 career games:
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6876&posit…
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2495&posit…
Steamer projects at 2016 WAR of 1.1 in 138 games for Trumbo and 0.8 in 111 games for Alvarez. Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2016 WAR of 1.1 for Trumbo and 1.1 for Alvarez.
fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=b…
Each hit 30+ home runs in 2012 and 2013 although in 2013 Trumbo stuck out a career-high 184 times and Alvarez a career-high (and NL-leading) 186 times.
Trumbo hits righthanded while Alvarez hits lefthanded. Trumbo is the much better fielder although neither is a defensive whiz.
Will both Trumbo and Alvarez be tendered a contract by the deadline? Will neither be tendered a contract? If only one, which one?
Ray Ray
“In the past two seasons combined, he’s been worth less than one win, via both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.”
But you also have to factor that his defense dragged that number down as well. If he is going to be a DH only, then only his oWAR is significant. That was 1.4 in 2014 and 1.6 in 2015. That is well worth $8 million a year.
Baghtru
Seems like he beat the Cardinals many times by himself almost… happy to see him go to the AL.
bradthebluefish
Right on the money Ray. I’m sure a team like the Tampa Bay Rays – who could use some power in their lineup – would want somebody like Pedro Alvarez.
Kershawshank Redemption 2
I’m in the minority here but if I were the Pirates I’d be willing to give Alvarez one more shot. At the very least, he’s relatively healthy and has a big lefty bat. He would be worth something substantial to a team that needs power in mid-July.
Brixton
I think its more about finances than just wanting to move on. No one wants to give away a potential 30 HR bat, but a small market team can’t afford a 8M gamble.
Niekro
I think if Oakland could afford 10 million on Butler and 4 million on Davis the Pirates should have no problem with 8 million on a player who is twice as good as both of them.
lukeski4
Oakland also doesn’t have the saves leader, two All-Star outfielders about to have extensions kick in soon, and two second basemen who are just going to keep get more and more money.
Also, I’m pretty sure Oakland has more money than Pittsburgh anyway.
Priggs89
I’d much rather see him come up to the plate than LaRoche…
The Ghost of Bobby Bonilla
Am I the only person that thinks a Pedro Alvarez for Carlos Santana trade makes way too much sense for both sides?
misterb71
It makes zero sense from Pittsburgh side of the trade table. If the Pirates want to dump Alvarez because he’ll cost them roughly $8 mil before becoming a free agent for 2017, why would they want Carlos Santana who is guaranteed to cost no less than $9.45 ($8.25 mil for ’16 + $1.2 mil buyout) mil if they trade for him and buyout his 2017 option?
joew
the big difference is that Santana is a switch hitter and can field. two positions reasonably well along with drawing a lot of walks and getting on base quite a bit despite his batting average along with his power.
for ‘only’ about 1.5 million more at minimum and if other options (Morse, Bell, Gobbert, etc) don’t work out you can hold him for another season at a rate that isn’t the worst though still a bit high.
I don’t know what the Indians have that they would want to part with him… but seems like it makes zero sense for Cleveland.
If the Pirates are going to be stuck with the salary (if they tender Pedro) seems like a fair deal for them. Though if it came down to it I’l probably non-tender him and use that saved money on a starter.
mrkinsm
Mark Trumbo for Pedro Alvarez
joew
I wouldn’t mind it if there was some salary kick back to Pittsburgh. The pirates are trying to save money. They would rather non-tender and save 8 million. if they would eat half of trumbo’s salary and take on pedro’s sure… but that probably won’t happen
lukeski4
Was Matt Kemp really that bad defensively last year? I never saw any Padres games last year, but wasn’t he supposed to a solid outfielder?
terrymesmer
> wasn’t [Kemp] supposed to a solid outfielder?
Nope. He won two gold gloves, but both years he was slightly negative in dWAR and DRS. But he did drive in 100 runs both years. Coincidence?
lukeski4
I see. Another case of Gold Gloves just going to MVPs. I actually didn’t feel that way this year, 2015 Gold Glovers seemed to be the right choice.
Colton530
Pedro Alverez should go to the mariners or a’s because he’s got power and those two teams need a first baseman or DH
thebare54
Alvarez need to be traded to the White Sox for last year free agent from National s who will be good in the N L again
szielinski 2
The safest bet for the Pirates if they intend to make another strong run for the division championship: Tender Alvarez and trade or release him when Bell is ready for his ML debut.
The Pirates would fare better replacing Walker in Spring Training simply because they have Harrison and Kang. If they believe Kang will return early during the 2016 season, trading Walker and keeping Alvarez makes sense.
The 2016 season will be a transition season for the Pirates, with a “one step back for two steps forward” outcome on the field. They might miss the playoffs but could be the best team in baseball by the end of the season.
joew
they don’t need to do this. as long as they got a fielder who doesn’t cost runs it is at least as good as Pedro’s performance last year over all. Morse should be good enough to not ‘step back’.