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Michael Macaulay-Birks
John Henry talks too much
pustule bosey
I like giadi’s statement – I think too much trust is placed in analytics based on past performance, people seem to forget that just because a guy as a 4+ WAR it doesn’t mean that he is going to perform even half that well the following year. Analytics doesn’t measure clubhouse chemistry, coaching staff chemistry, marital problems, getting hit by pitches or any number of things that pretty commonly change what happens to a team’s season or post season –
bradthebluefish
Isn’t obvious that there needs to be a blend of sabermetric analytics and talent evaluation? Best of both worlds?
jb226
Sure, but the team that comes up with the best way to blend them, wins.
pustule bosey
not to a lot of guys –
22222pete
Theo always said it was
hawkny11
Pedro Sandoval’s BMI is 34, not 17, as John Henry would have us believe.
22222pete
Actually, sabermetricians as a group have done a very poor job on uncertainty and the margin of error. Just look at the projections for team and players and show me where the margins of error are?. WAR for example uses one year of fielding data. No margin of error there. Run estimators, also used by WAR , with all their assumptions and estimations? No margin of error. Position adjustments whose source is entirely nebulous? No margin of error there. Reporting UZR or WAR to 1 decimal point provides those numbers with a statistical significance they don’t deserve
jd396
The problems with WAR mostly come from people who think it’s the be-all-end-all of statistics… when it isn’t, and no one who actually understands it thinks it is.
Lance
Maybe the Phillies have learned a lesson about long term expensive contracts for aging players like Howard, utley, Lee.