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By charliewilmoth | at
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Kershawshank Redemption 2
I feel like the Reds would have been better off had they held onto Chapman, had him serve his inevitable suspension, then try to deal him in July after relievers had gotten hurt or underperformed.
Some contender would have certainly offered top prospects for him after the domestic thing was resolved. I think the Reds just panicked.
watup0100
That and the fact that they wanted to get him off payroll.
adshadbolt
To bad Votto’s contract is so huge he could really help some teams
AlphaZero
I don’t believe O’Grady was claimed. He was taken with the Reds’ second pick in the Rule 5.
Jeff Todd
Thanks, fixed.
thecoffinnail
Rookie Davis turned a corner last year and is actually a pretty decent pitching prospect. Jagielo would be a much better prospect if he was able to handle 3rd better.
That Frazier deal is a definite head scratcher. They must have wanted Peraza badly. Which, I can’t figure out why since he is ready and is now blocked by Phillips. I don’t think his bat is strong enough to warrant a move to 3rd. Imo the author absolutely nailed it when he said they should have dealt with the White Sox themselves.
What interests me the most is not a potential Votto trade but what the Reds could bring back in return for some of their younger starters like Cozart and Mesoraco. Both have suffered injuries recently but their ceilings and playing positions of need for several teams could bring back some really good prospects. They will be a team to watch at the deadline for sure.
redsfanman
Peraza is moving back to SS, and isn’t blocked by anyone there. Peraza’s move back to SS avoids not only a competition against Phillips, but one against Alex Blandino.
A problem with the White Sox prospects was that Montas would merely be thrown into an already deep crop of minor league pitchers, while Micah Johnson can barely handle 2b defensively, and can seemingly only move to the outfield. At 25 Micah Johnson is an older prospect with less versatility and who’s blocked with the Reds. Maybe Johnson moves to CF, a position Peraza could also handle better.
The article didn’t adequately discuss the Reds’ depth of starting pitching prospects, with the upper minors loaded with strong rotation candidates.
sigurd 2
Cozart is better than Peraza right now, so hes not pushing him off that spot.
We are definitely stacked depth wise on the starting pitching side and I think its undervalued.
Also, i’m a big believer in Schebler. I think hes going to turn a lot of heads this year when he gets the starting LF gig.
redsfanman
I don’t mean Peraza is stealing Cozart’s job, I expect Peraza to head to AAA until Cozart gets traded or hurt. He’s Cozart’s successor, not Brandon Phillips’. As soon as Cozart shows himself to be healthy he’ll be being dangled as a trade candidate.
The Reds do have a complicated infield future, with Suarez having the tools to play all around the infield, Peraza being able to play SS, 2b, and CF, and Blandino likely settling at either 2b or 3b. But I think Peraza is at the top of that SS depth chart.
AlphaZero
I like Schebler as well and think he will surprise some. He was a little bit hidden in the Dodgers’ strong system. The main problem with the Frazier package was the third piece. Brandon Dixon looks like hot garbage. I would have been absolutely fine with the trade if the third piece in the deal actually had some upside.
theo2016
Peraza doesnt have the arm for an everyday ss and profiles best as a utility player. And montas has touched 102 mph, there is no such thing as too much prospect depth. The white sox package was better.
thecoffinnail
Exactly what I thought about Peraza. Although his light bat would fit much better as a SS. If the Reds didn’t want additional pitching depth they could have easily flipped the prospects for positional player prospects from another team. What the Dodgers ended up with for basically being a middle man is much better than what the Reds got. I looked into Peraza pretty heavily last year when it was rumored that the Yankees were trying to pry him from the Braves. I wasn’t very impressed with him. He went from untouchable to traded by two teams in 6 months and the Dodgers could use a solid 2nd base prospect. I guess I shouldn’t really be judging this trade right now though. Montas could blow his arm out completely and Peraza could turn into the next Altuve. I will have to look back on this one in a couple of years.
sixpacktwo
Right,
cbwalradth
The chappy and Frazier trades were pure poppy cock and should have been wait and see who is desperate for both, not hurry up and unload for who the GM thought might be good… I feel jocketty has been horrible even back when he signed homer Bailey over signing Johnny Cueto to the same contract 2 years ago, can’t see anything that he has done that’s good even hiring coaches…
AlphaZero
Really? That seems like a bit of hyperbole. Jocketty traded a year of Alfredo Simon for five and a half years of Eugenio Suarez and Jonathan Crawford. He dealt a year of Latos for six years of Anthony Desclafani and Chad Wallach. Both of those deals were immediate wins. He also acquired Cody Reed, Brandon Finnegan, and John Lamb for two months of Cueto at the deadline. That trade is starting to shape up pretty nicely as well.
The returns for Frazier and Chapman were a bit underwhelming (not bad per se but definitely underwhelming); however, that doesn’t automatically negate the good work that Jocketty has done previously.
treillyjr
The best move was one that didnt’ happen. Trading Bruce now is a very bad idea. He’s under preformed his own standards over the past two seasons & the Reds would have been getting pennies on the dollar if they traded him.
The real elephant in the room is Votto. He’s a great player but his contract is going to hamstring the Red’s rebuild. A true rebuild doesn’t happen in one season. It takes time and a good plan. The Cubs, Pirates & Cards project very strong over the next 2-3 years. The Reds need to target ’18 – ’20. I’d really expect them to him shop at some point this season.
redsfanman
Votto’s contract is so large that it’s hard to move, and he has a no-trade clause, which he – like Phillips – has implied he’d use. Votto is not going anywhere if he doesn’t want to, and he’s given no signs of wanting to leave.
His contract hardly hamstrings the rebuild, he such a good hitter that he deserves that money. He’s a superstar they want to construct their rebuild around. He’s a big bat on a team that is, again, being built primarily around pitching and defense.
The path to the Reds rebuild involves arms like Iglesias, Stephenson, Reed, Finnegan, Lorenzen, DeSclafani, Rookie Davis, and Travieso… and bats like Votto, Winker, Mesoraco, Blandino, Suarez, and Peraza. Things look better with Votto in the lineup than $20m/year redistributed on lesser players, especially in a time of soaring contracts.
ajpasadena
Jocketty gets a lot of criticism for decisions that I am pretty sure were forced upon him by the owner, Bob Castellini. Castellini, I suspect, essentially directed Jocketty to make the best trades he could immediately for Chapman and Frazier, both of whom arguably would have netted more at this year’s trade deadline. I think Castellini also had a lot to do with the decisions to overpay for Phillips and Bailey. Jocketty has made mistakes, of course, but much of the criticism directed against him by Reds fans would be more properly directed at Reds ownership.
sixpacktwo
Player get hurt or perform poorly wait to trade and maybe you can’t trade Chapman and Frazier.
daveinmp
Cubs should win 100+ games with so many vs. the Reds and Brewers. Pirates aren’t in Cubs class but should benefit enough too to win 90 and get wild card. Cards could go either way with so many health concerns.
bhamredsfan
We’ve read this commentary 100 times. This is just all regurgitation of what everyone has said. Be a little creative and have your own thoughts next time. I thought these articles were meant to project lineups, there is no mention of Suarez, nor of Hamilton and Cozart’s injury. At least do what every other writer does and wonder who is going to play LF. Sorry, but this is simple plagiarism of every other off season article.
Jeff Todd
We’re glad to receive criticism — even when, as here, I disagree with it. But I feel compelled to say …
1) Don’t accuse someone of plagiarism unless you have evidence to support it. I’m certain these are Charlie’s thoughts and words.
2) I’m not sure what makes you think these articles are intended to “project lineups.” They are intended to review the offseason transactions, as the titles clearly reflect.
bhamredsfan
Jeff, your article on Colorado today is an example. You basically covered their entire lineup while covering offseason activity. This article covered all the re-hash of negatives without giving a reader any concept of what those transactions did to the team they will field. Frazier is gone…ok…what happens now? Oh! Suarez.
Sorry, I just have a high standard with my MLBTR readings and this didn’t match up. Plagiarism was strong, I’m sorry. But there just wasn’t anything new or newsworthy
in the article.
1Tough9
Charlie, 3rd Paragraph, sentence 1 (in the parenthesis) under Questions Remaining has a typing error. It should say “Join” instead of “Joint”
Jeff Todd
Thanks, fixed.
lacherj
I don’t think the Reds made out too bad this offseason. I feel like we are plenty deep in pitching now and position players I feel that we are sitting pretty good as well in the minors.
I think IF the players we got play to their potentional i think this is a pretty decent team. I wish we would have gotten at least 1 decent veteran for the pitching staff.. I think Aaron Harang is still available?..
LIne-up wise I feel the Reds will do just fine… You are only replacing 2 starters.. and Mesoraco could post similar Frazier stats.. and a platoon in LF will put up at least the same as the black hole thats been in LF for years.
If they can get ANY wins from the SP and hope Price doesn’t blow late inning situations like last year…. I think this could be a .500 team…. Im thinking this yerar will suprise some people.
sigurd 2
I agree with the general sentiment.
We aren’t in THAT bad of shape, especially if we have a good/strong draft this year.
cbwalradth
Reds now have the worst lineup in baseball, not sure what this discussion board has been thinking but it’s Votto and a bunch of guys that wouldn’t make a very good triple a team… Jocketty piled some arms but zero hitting talent which = a hundred loss season and no fans to go watch them lose 2-0 every game!
slasher016
Any lineup that has Votto and Mesoraco in it will not be the worst in baseball. If the young pitching comes around I really think the Reds could surprise this people (and by that I mean winning 70-75 games.)
baseballrat
LOL! Gotta love optimism
Nick Hogan
I completely disagree.. Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Suarez, Mesoraco, and Bruce are all capable major league hitters. The lineup hasn’t changed that much from their playoff runs. It’s the pitching staff that needs to emerge.
I don’t know why everyone is crapping all over the prospects either. Bryce Harpers only come around once in a blue moon. Most prospects need to be developed and built into major league players.
It KILLS me that the same people complaining about Frazier being traded are the ones complaining about the prospect return we got for him.. Frazier himself was a late bloomer who studied under Scott Rolen (one of the best in recent memory to play the hot corner). If you went by his projections when he was Jose Peraza’s age, he would’ve been on exactly no-one’s radar.
lacherj
Exactly! I think if the Reds start Peraza up here, and Brandon gets off his high horse and helps this kid out (just like Rolen with Frazier) I think he’ll be a pretty good ball player… i know prospects are hard to read especially when they’re not brought up in your system (which is the only thing that concerns me about all these prospects we got)
bhamredsfan
BP looks really distracted to me. Last night he muffs a DP opportunity and doesn’t even know there are two outs so he doesn’t score from 2nd. Not that it matters so much in Spring, but I think that blunder cost Disco getting the loss
cbwalradth
Nick Hogan and lacherj… Phillips is a .260 hitter with no more pop, Bruce is a .220 hitter that has 1 good month a year, cozart is a .200 hitter that is hurt all the time, and mesoraco has had 1 good year and coming off hip surgery as a catcher only… When mike leake pitched he was our 4th best hitter in the lineup that has now lost Frazier.. Young good pitching but still young and no hitting equals no fans at games and 3-1 losses in a 100 loss season, with no hitting prospects in minors!
Nick Hogan
I just don’t think that’s a fair assessment. Especially Meso and Cozart. Mesoraco was only a starting catcher for one full season before his injury. Cozart didn’t have much more than that, and he was hitting .300 when he went down last year. Two years ago, over half this lineup was on a playoff team. Science and stats will only take you so far.
And it only means no butts in the seats because Reds fans can be real jerks…this is speaking as a Reds fan. Jocketty and Williams are going with the talent that’s closer to the majors because a full rebuild will drive away the fans and they’ll lose money. But, of course, the fans had already abandoned them before any of this happened.
Phillies2017
Returns were too underwhelming for two stars– regardless of baggage–
Also, they should have signed 1 year reclamation projects to try to create more opportunities for deadline deals.
Nick Hogan
I think it was a matter of getting something versus nothing in return. They didn’t have much control left of any of the guys they let go of. Makes sense to me. I’d have liked to see it better too, but I still think they did pretty well.
Actually agree with the reclamation project assessment. I would’ve liked to see them bring Bronson back, and there are several viable options in that respect.
sixpacktwo
How can you say Schebler has limited upside, when he has some power, can run, and catch. His upside is left field, 280 hitter, 25 HR and a every day player.