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Sonny 3
Good moves
del4rel
i think there is a little mild mischaracterization here…. the padres are clearly selling, they are just picky sellers. Preller doesn’t tell anyone anything about his plans and i think he does so partially to avoid a Reds-like situation where everybody knows you need to sell and destroys your leverage.
I think the Padres will continue to listen on Ross, Norris, Cashner, and Shields, but hold out for the best possible deal (they seem willing to go to a QO On Cashner if necessary). Furthermore, since there is no ownership imperative to shed payroll, I wouldn’t be surprised if Preller repeated the Upton/Kimbrel gambit and took on a bad contract in order to receive additional value. This would explain the Sandoval rumors…
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
I can not see any situation in which Andrew Cashner is worth a QO.
And stop it with the Sandoval b.s. No one wants him! Preller dodged a bullet last offseason when Sandoval signed with the Red Sox. Trading for him would basically be picking that bullet up and trying to stab himself with it.
davep-3
Did anyone (besides Padres) think that Kennedy was worthy QO before Kennedy refused it and signed with the Royals? The free agent class next year is awful. A heathy Cashner turns down QO and Padres get a pick.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Yeah I still have no idea how that happened. But if I’m Preller I just trade Cashner to the highest bidder so we don’t have to make that decision.
Okie_baseball
Man I sure would love to have Norris for my guys. The Padres must be asking a lot from Texas for him. However, it could be that Preller (who used to be in our international FO) is waiting to assess the health of Jurikson Profar. Profar would solve the long term SS issues in San Diego and Norris would give Texas a front line catcher. Unfortunately if Profar is healthy I think he could command more than just Norris; as he once was the highest rated prospect in baseball and is a legitimate leadoff hitter.
In the end, I think the Padres are still reeling from a really puzzling 2015 season. Sold the farm and then didn’t get it done.
davep-3
It seems like that Preller did not value Byrnes’ farm system as much as others. Turner and Ross continue to get rave reviews. Smith and Barbato are getting their first chance in MLB now. Bauers had a great year in minors but needs to develop power. The rest (Wieland, Elfin, Hahn, Alvarez, Smith, both Petersons and Fuentes) had weak seasons, were injured or seem fringey at best as prospects. If Turner and/or Smith turn into stars and Myers doesn’t, than Preller looks bad. The rest of the prospects dealt seem to have limited upside. Preller did sell the farm but I am still unsure whether Byrnes’ farm had much value.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
The only prospects Preller traded I was upset about losing were Turner, Ross and Wisler
davidcoonce74
I actually didn’t care about Wisler – he can’t get lefties out; he’ll be a reliever eventually, and relievers with bad platoon splits are a dime-a-dozen. Mallex Smith is looking like he might be useful now; otherwise, Turner and Ross were real losses to the system.
I’d love to see a Cashner/Norris for Profar swap, but that’s probably not going to happen.
thecoffinnail
You left out Wisler and Fried. Two of the better prospects that he traded last year.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
Wisler has been just okay so far, but he still has time to develop at the major league level. Fried ended up needing TJ surgery, so his stock dropped. However, he was sill a top 10 pick when they drafted him (I think 7th overall?)
I wasn’t happy when they traded Turner and Ross either. Especially if Turner ends up becoming what everyone says he might be, then it’s really going to hurt.
stymeedone
What Profar used to be is irrelevant to what he is now worth. The clock has been ticking towards FA while he has been on the DL.. He is now just as much suspect as prospect. Who knows if he will get back to what he was, or how soon he will get there. The upside may still be there, but there is substantial risk. Texas wants to win NOW. Norris for Profar is not that out of balance. Of course, the question is whether Texas feels they need a full time player to replace Chirinos. Myself, I would give Holaday a chance to show what he can do before making a trade.
I think with SF, LA and ARZ all making big plays this offseason, SD made the right decision to hold pat. I gave them a B. Preller sold some tickets and now he is building. Not enough evidence to write him off yet.
adshadbolt
Profar is still only 23 he came up at 19 so he is still young enough the have a long lasting impact in the bigs
Okie_baseball
See I wonder if this discussion is exactly what is causing the separation between the two clubs? The Rangers know what Profar is if he is healthy. Basically, he is good enough that we Ranger fans all want to trade Elvis Andrus (a very competent SS who just laced a double as I’m writing this!). If the Padres valued Profar the same I think Norris would already be on a plan to Arlington.
howitis
The Rangers won’t be trading Profar for a terrible defensive catcher who’s currently hitting .148
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
He’s an average defensive catcher at the very least and way to judge a guy after 29 PA’s
howitis
He’s just not good enough to get you Profar
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Hahaha at this point I bet Daniels would do Norris for Profar straight up in a heartbeat
howitis
Subpar defensive catchers hitting below the Mendoza line don’t fetch top prospects
thecoffinnail
I thought the current rumor being circulated was Norris and Cashner for Profar.
Okie_baseball
I think the rumor is Cashner and Norris for Profar + 2. If one of those two is Ortiz or Tate I hope Daniels walks away from it. Norris is a good player guys there is no disputing that. He’s frontline, with better offensive production than anyone we have right now. I think I would take 3 years (I believe?) of Norris straight up for Profar.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Yeah it would take more than Profar to get you 3 years of Norris. Profar hasn’t even played since 2013. What he used to be is irrelevant to his current value.
howitis
And Norris’ value isn’t what it used to be. He’s a worse hitter, he’s worse defensively, and he’s a year or two from becoming strictly a weak hitting 1B/DH. Everyday Profar plays his value builds. It’s already higher proving he can make all the throws from shortstop. By the trade deadline it will be much higher. We’ll see where Norris’ will be. You’ve got it backwards, Norris couldn’t get you Profar. Daniels would never offer that anyway.
Okie_baseball
That’s ridiculous, the guy is a career .250 hitter, only two seasons removed from an AS appearance, with a career high in homers last year. He’s a clear upgrade offensively. Defensively, I think he’s considered average; below average at blocking and a tick above average throwing guys out. I think he is worth Profar, but I don’t want to give up anything more that Jury. If the Padres ask for any legitimate prospects outside of Profar then we walk away I think.
What makes you think he’s a DH candidate? The guy caught 100 something games last year.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
“He’s a worse hitter, he’s worse defensively, and he’s a year or two from becoming strictly a weak hitting 1B/DH.”
Umm what proof do you have of any of this? He’s actually made huge strides defensively and no one with half a brain thinks he will ever need to move out of the catcher position.
howitis
Rangers-lifer, How’s is Norris a clear upgrade offensively? Norris hit a career high 14 home runs last year, IN 515 AT-BATS! Do you think that’s good? Do you want me to start listing the other players who hit 14 home runs last season? His OPS the last 3 seasons are .754 in 2013, .763 in 2014, and .709 last season. I’m sure Padres fans would blame Petco, like Oakland Coliseum is such a hitters paradise, but Norris actually hit much better at Petco last year. Take a look at his splits from last season. He had a .759 ops with 9 home runs at Petco, .662 with 5 home runs on the road. He is regressing as a hitter. He’s currently hitting .148 with a .456 ops. While I agree that his season numbers will be better than that, I think his overall numbers will continue getting worse. Why would Texas trade a former top prospect, who’s value was at an all-time low before the season, but is building each game he plays, for a player who may or may not help the Rangers. There’s no reason to, not until Norris starts raking, and the Rangers fall far enough out of first they need to make a move. Also, you might want to go compare Chironos’ numbers to Norris’ numbers. Everyday that goes by without a trade being made is just one day closer to getting Chirinos back, who’s a better hitter than Norris anyway. As it stands right now, Holaday and Nicholas are better hitters than Norris.
howitis
TheWestCoastRyan, You can claim whatever you want about his defense, but Keith Law, who actually gets paid for his baseball opinion, called his defense shaky. Does shaky mean average to you? Above average? Countless Padres fans complain on these boards about his pitch framing, pitch calling, and ability to block balls in the dirt. He has a good arm though, I’ll give him that, but does that sound like an average to above average catcher to you? Even with all of his defensive flaws he’d still have value if he was hitting, but he’s not.
As for proof he’ll be moving to 1B/DH, obviously I have none, but do you see a lot of “shaky” defensive catchers staying career catchers. No you don’t. I don’t know when he’ll be moved from catcher, but he will be moved.
If the Padres want top prospects for Norris he has to start hitting. Maybe Preller will be able to find someone willing to give up top prospects for him. I hope he does. I like Preller. However, it won’t be the Rangers. Not for Norris alone. Jon Daniels doesn’t do that. If he did, the Texas Rangers would be the San Diego Padres, little talent on the Major league roster, weak farm system.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
“Everyday that goes by without a trade being made is just one day closer to getting Chirinos back, who’s a better hitter than Norris anyway.”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!! You just made my day.
“but he will be moved.”
So since you have a crystal ball and everything, will you tell me the winning lotto numbers for next year? Please and thank you.
howitis
Really? That’s the best you got? Ha Ha Ha and Crystal Ball? I guess I expected more.
If you’re waiting for a Norris for Profar trade announcement, I wouldn’t hold my breath, but you know that now, don’t you
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
I don’t even want Profar (he hasn’t played since 2013). I’d be shooting for Gallo or Mazara.
howitis
I actually root for the Padres. Hate the Dodgers. They’re the new Yankees. F MadBaum and the Giants. Colorado’s always toast in the thin air, and Arizona is apparently stupid. Preller will make ya’ll relevant again, if ya’lls owners give him the time. That being said, you’re not getting Profar, Mazara, Gallo, Brinson, Tate, or Ortiz for Norris alone. Wish in one hand, and S-H-I-T in the other. See which one fills up faster.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Alrighty then. No deal! You’re not getting a 2.5 WAR catcher with 3 more years of control for spare parts and fringe prospects.
howitis
You must mean the guy with a worse defensive war than Chirinos in twice as much playing time. I guess I should have expected that after your previous posts. Pathetic.
davidcoonce74
Robinson Chirinos has never done much of anything in his career outside of a couple-hundred at-bats in 2015. He’s old, especially for a catcher. He’s not much defensively. Even if he were healthy, Texas should be looking for an upgrade. There’s very little out there available, and Norris might be the best of those. The Padres would probably have to add a piece to get Profar, but the notion that even a healthy Chirinos is a good player is taking a narrative too far. Even in his good season his OPS+ was 103. That’s not that great.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
LOL where did you hear that he had a worse defensive WAR than Chirinos? Norris was better than Chirinos in all respects last year and has been for a long time. There’s no doubting that Norris would be a HUGE upgrade for you guys.
howitis
Baseball Reference. Norris had a worse defensive WAR and OPS+ than Chirinos last season.
SupremeZeus
Preller’s initial assessments re: the Padres ability to compete and the subsequent moves were shockingly terrible and 100% wrong. I can’t imagine why ownership would double down and let a guy w/ such reckless/terrible judgment guide a sweeping organizational rebuild. Preller has no apparent philosophy or plan and if he does he isn’t sharing it w/ you Padres fans. Cuba and Venezuela signings to the rescue. Preller is simply out of his depth. He is a disaster and hiring him was simply a mistake. Unfortunately for Padres fans you are going to have to wait 2-3 years for the inevitable to finally occur. Pro tip: if you are going to hire an ivy league wunderkind to be your GM, stick to the Harvard men, Cornell doesn’t really count.
Samuel
Maybe they’d have more success hiring a person that played ball, worked his way up from the minor leagues including extensive scouting, understands how the game is played, and is more comfortable with ballplayers then spreadsheets.
Arguing over a Cornell man or one from Harvard in talking about running an MLB franchise. My WWII veteran father is turning in his grave. And Bill Veeck is laughing yet again.
chesteraarthur
And theo Epstein is telling you to zip it. Your rah-rah old baseball shtick is tired.
Okie_baseball
I think a lot of the successful GMs are analytically inclined now. It is obviously difficult to find one of those fellows who played baseball anywhere pasted high school. Epstein, Lunhow and Daniels are all good GMs who didn’t play much baseball.. Obviously you would hire a guy like that to be your scouting director, but a GM absolutely!
davidcoonce74
To be fair, Preller was given a directive last offseason to do what he did. It came from his bosses. This year he’s getting to try it his way, so we should wait a bit before we evaluate Preller.
Samuel
It appears that the Padres ownership group is over the “we’re gonna wreck this league” fever they had going into 2015, and has fallen back to the print-money mode that they are in owning an MLB team. Seeing how truly difficult it is to build a winning team in the cutthroat competition that is MLB, I’d suggest that they now want the young baseball ops genius to do what he can to get the team competitive over the next 3-4 years. Then they’ll decide what to do next.
So the Padres fall in line with the Rockies, A’s, Mariners, Indians, Brewers, Rays, Marlins and others that use their young baseball ops geniuses to get some good players, keep the fans chasing the carrot, and continue to show a handsome profit each year with the shared revenue from MLB . They get to hang around a professional sports franchise and baste in some celebrity. They pay themselves (and oftentimes family members) a nice salary for easy jobs they award. They fly to MLB meetings 2 or 3 times a year to politic to get more of the financial pie. And the punch line – the equity in their franchises is accruing at an astronomical percentage rate which may well be the highest of any major industry in America today. How and where can life possibly be better?
As with the teams noted above, the Padres ownership is not going to risk financial drawbacks with the crazy notion that they can suddenly leapfrog over 4 teams in their division, and then run the playoffs and World Series. It’s a win-win for everyone as things stand now. They give away bobbleheads along with other promotions, have a sensational park right by the ocean, and 81 times a year people can come down and have a nice time (after taking a second on their house). The ownership will go with the flow – along with other MLB ownership groups – they have found heaven on earth.
stymeedone
You are correct, sir. Not every team is lucky enough to have an owner who wants to win, now, like in Detroit. (Thank you, Mr. Illitch.) Its hard for fans to keep in mind that the bottom line is what many teams use to determine the success of their executives. The manager is the only one that ultimately lives and dies by the won-loss record.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
I also agree with a lot of why you’re saying. This ownership group is starting to look more and more like the regimes of old. I can’t help but think that guys like Dee are really responsible in part for what has happened over the past couple years, and it doesn’t completely fall on just Preller.
They say they are going to build the farm back up, but we’ll have to see how that turns out over the next few years. I’m still willing to give Preller some time, but my expectations have definitely gone down some.
As of right now, it’s the same old song and dance. The same pitiful Padres. And to think that I still find it in me to pay money to go watch this comedy of errors.
Okie_baseball
I have always wondered about the Padres. Do you guys think it could be your ballpark? It really is a problem to attract the free agent hitters to a ballpark that is so big. Which leads me to think that the only real option is to grow your own lineup. Your pitching has been quite good at times, heck if we had some of your rotation we would probably have a ring or two by now.
mrpadre19
Petco is not the same pitchers Park it used to be.
Opponents had no problems hitting HR’s there last season….
Signed James Shields and Ian Kennedy
Okie_baseball
I was speaking of FA hitters though. The current bats (Kemp & Myers primarily) were acquired through trade right? Does Petco block you from signing a FA power hitter because of the size?
Mark 20
Its definitely an interesting case. I think it affects bringing guys in who are trying to bounce back and rebuild their value, but if there is guartenteed money and length i dont see it being an issue.
mrpadre19
It does…..which is why this team should always be built on speed,defense and pitching.
Which I believe Preller is returning too after 1 offseason of a totally different approach.
We need to draft bats and sign pitching in free agency.
The Rockies should be doing the exact opposite.
However…because of Park changes this Petco factor is now more mental….than actual.
It’s still a pitchers park…..but just not as extreme as it used to be.
Still affects free agency though.
mrpadre19
What is missed in this analysis is that most every move Preller made this offseason was more about improving the defense than shedding payroll.
With Spangy at 2b over Gyorko…Melvin in LF and Jay in CF and Alexi “Ramirez” at SS this team is 200% better defensively over last year.