Email a copy of '5 Reasons Rich Hill Will Get $45MM+ In Free Agency' to a friend
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By Tim Dierkes | at
Email a copy of '5 Reasons Rich Hill Will Get $45MM+ In Free Agency' to a friend
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plyons
Also, consider that a team will not need to relinquish a first round selection as Hill is not eligible to be made a Qualifying Offer. With the market for SPs so poor, a guy like Hellickson could certainly get a QO.
So long as the CBA doesn’t change the way QOs are made (or even their existence), Hill could possibly get upwards of $60M.
Great article, Tim!!!
Acuña Matata
If Rich Hill gets 45 million lol oh man. Murphy didnt even get that. He should be happy with 2 @ 25
Cam
Tim just wrote an article stating 5 reasons why he’ll get more than that. You know, this article?
staypuft
And this guy stated one reason why he won’t. Not that I agree, but this is literally what comments sections are for.
chesteraarthur
Because a position player, coming off what was at the time, an uncertain spike in production, in a stronger free agent market, didn’t?
Yeah I guess that’s a “reason”.
Acuña Matata
Speak of the devil it’s Chester. You still think I have my Homer glasses on with Freddie Freeman? Still think I’m delusional that he can still hit and that he just needed protection in the lineup? You are the last person who needs to speak lol
hanks1hammer
Every year there is more than just a couple really bad contracts handed out based on upside and potential
bigkempin
Murphy had a QO attached, pre 2015 playoffs was just an average 2B., and not every team has a need for a 2B. Pretty much every team in the league needs pitching. Pitchers simply have a bigger market.
buddyleex
Only Luhnow would do a deal like that.
Phillies2017
I could see Dombrowski doing this. He’s never been afraid to open up the checkbook for pitching. Also, the Angels are desperate for pitching and the Dodgers have shown interest and have the funds. Royals and Tigers are outside shots as they could use some additional rotation depth, and Dave Stewart likes to throw money around just for the fun of it.
gmflores27
Doubt Angels are that desperate
start_wearing_purple
I gotta think his injury history will make teams wary about adding a third year to his contract.
brood550
I see an option for the third year rather than a guaranteed 3rd too. Maybe it vests on # of starts or innings pitched?
beauvandertulip
I just can’t see it happening. You’re talking about a guy who has potentially missed 80 innings this season due to a blister. That to me puts him only in the 2 year area. Maybe the Red Sox or the Orioles decide to throw their money away on him because they have to and need to. But I can’t see another team wasting their money on him.
chesteraarthur
even with his missed time, he’s been a 3.5 fwar pitcher.
Ken M.
Why do the Red Sox have to or need to? They have Price, Porcello, Pomerantz, ERod and Wright coming back next season. Their rotation has been 4th best on the AL
SeattlePilots
Probably more like 6th or 7th
southi
Someone will likely end up paying Hill 3/$45 but depending on other factors other teams may actually prefer Hellickson or Nova if that teams they can get them for 3 years and 30/35 million. Some teams would prefer to take a chance on a younger more historically healthy pitcher with less upside than an older less historically healthy pitcher who is lights out when he is on the bump. It is all going to boil down to how that specific team balances risks and rewards based on their evaluation of the individual pitcher.
stymeedone
I can’t agree with his being worth 3/45, though I can see it happening. The 100 quality innings that are being speculated on, don’t have the same appeal when you factor in 100 innings from a 6th or 7th starter. When would you get that 100 from him? At the beginning of the year, then having to replace him in the 2nd half when the races get tight? Or at the end of the year after having fallen out of contention because a “Wade LeBlanc” type couldn’t give quality starts early. Maybe you rush a prospect and they never recover. I would rather have the more dependable workhorse.
A'sfaninUK
There’s really no “dependable workhorse” on this years free agent market though. Bartolo? He’s super old and not as good as Hill.
plyons
Is Rich Hill worth 3/$45M? Not at all. I don’t know that anyone thinks that.
Given the market and other factors detailed in this article, Rich Hill certainly may get that. He’s not worth it, but that won’t stop a club – and it just takes one – to give it to him.
A'sfaninUK
Well I mean in theory, no athlete deserves that much – that’s more than doctors and scientists – people who actually change the world. But Hill is a legit ace when he does pitch, if anyone “deserves” $15M a year on this years MLB FA market, its him.
BlueSkyLA
Whatever he gets paid is what he is worth. That’s how markets work. Still, I am doubtful about a player with such a checkered past receiving three years, especially at his age. The lack of competition will help him maximize his market value, but still.
BTW, the other reason Roberts pulled him in the 7th is because without him the Dodgers don’t have a legitimate #2 starter, even assuming a healthy Kershaw. I mean, forget about the postseason for a moment, and just look at the rotation, and see what you see in the here and now.
hozie007
One more reason, at the end of this season he will likely have about 620 or so innings under his belt…that’s about what a young pitcher with roughly 3 years of proven starter would have at say age 24 or 26. I think he could easily get $17.5 x 3 yrs or somewhere closer to $50M.
AddisonStreet
MLB Trade Rumors would give Rich Hill 5/125m just to write for them.
gomerhodge71
Hill “may” get 3 years, but I’m looking at 10-11 mil per
JohnnyDodger
Bums get 10/11 million. Did you read the article. That’s the best numbers in baseball. He’ll get 15 per easily. Best pitcher in baseball over the last year besides that one guy named Kershaw.
A'sfaninUK
I totally see this happening, especially with a huge playoff performance. But look at it this way: even if he gets hurt, you are paying $45M for say, 45 starts over 3 years – that’s still a bargain. His stuff and approach make it very difficult for him to not throw a quality start at minimum, so you are really paying $45 million for 40+ QS, and any team in baseball would do this if put to them this way*. If he stays healthy he’s a bargain. His ceiling is as high as anyone’s on the market.
*Yankees are currently paying Sabathia $25M to throw 13+ QS for them. It’s fair to say a MLB team would pay $1M per QS, no? I’m spitballin here but it seems like a fair comp.
legit1213
Counting on consecutive dominant campaigns from an injury prone pitcher…he will get signed by some desperate contender anyway. Payroll is a 4 letter word for some clubs.
Joeybats 2
He’s from Oackland
Phillies2017
The fact that there is no QO makes his value skyrocket. I could see him getting around 60 over 3 years. The problem with thin markets like this is: teams shell out crazy amounts of money to players that aren’t worth it (like Hill who is probably not a safe investment over 3 years)- and then in the future when legit players are free agents, they use these deals as benchmarks, so this offseason has the potential to send baseball payrolls into a whole new world.. That’s a bit concerning as we are likely to see a lot of bad contracts this season.
ottomatic
I can’t see a team going 3 years with his injury history. that is going to scare people
A'sfaninUK
Not a contender with a huge budget like the Yankees, who would be totally ok with overpaying for 15 quality starts, as they are currently paying Sabathia $25M this year for 13 QS. Hill’s ceiling is miles above Sabathias right now, Hill has so many 10+ K games and almost no non-QS’s dating back to Boston last year.
julyn82001
A’s or not A’s, Hill is a keeper, definitely…
jd396
I still have this gut feeling Hill is going to vanish as quickly as he appeared.
houseoflords44
Hill will get $45 million or more because there will be a general manager who is so desperate for pitching that he will give Hill the 3 years and the money. It only takes one desperate gm
Pjzza
I could see him getting a three year deal and If I were the GM desperate enough to do it, it would be heavily backloaded. That way, even if he is merely a 4.50 era 4th or 5th starter in the last year of the deal, you could afford to build around (or in front of) him.
beauvandertulip
Sign a 37 year old with injury history and no long real track record. Yeah, 3/45 sounds awesome
A'sfaninUK
In Rich Hill’s last 21 starts (20 if you subtract the blister game where he came out during the first hitter) he has 17 QS. That’s a Kershaw-level percentage. No one on the market can do that.
To repeat: In 20 starts, he gave up 3 earned runs THREE times. The rest were 2 runs or less, while maintaining a 1.74 ERA. That is Cy Young level. Everyone stop badmouthing his talent, Hill is an absolute beast who deserves a huge contract even with his injury history. If you are a borderline contender, Hill the exact kind of risk you take.