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By Mark Polishuk | at
Email a copy of 'Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds' to a friend
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redsfan48
Suárez is most definitely worth keeping, and could well be a member of the next Reds contending team. Excluding the month of May, Suarez is hitting .264/.337/.456 which obviously provides some value, and has been a slightly above average defender at 3B. I see him as a middle infielder or super utility (Zobrist like) player long-term, but would be genuinely surprised if he wasn’t in a Reds uniform by the end of next season.
As for which bats are worth keeping in the outfield, I see Schebler and Winker being the starting corner outfielders with Duvall as a power bat off the bench/4th outfielder type.
redsfan54
I hope Suarez is gone in the years to come. Definitely not part of our future team. Not a good defender, and his bat hasn’t impressed me. Hopefully after senzel gets called up, Suarez is gone. As for Duvall, hopefully the reds are smart enough to trade him this off-season, because I don’t see him ever having a season like this again, which wasn’t all that great to begin with. Ya he can hit the long ball, but his average and OBP are awful.
redsfanman
Adam Duvall likely has limited trade value for the reasons you described. With limited trade value and two more pre-arbitration years to go there’s no need to trade him. The Reds are hoping to contend by 2018, at which point Duvall will still be extremely affordable, and at least a useful bat off the bench.
Suarez has hit for higher average and OBP than Duvall, while Duvall has added more extra base hits. One is a 25 year old who can play all over the infield, the other is a 28 year old outfielder. Suarez needs to continue to improve, but I could easily see him as a part of the next contending Reds team.
redsfan48
Once again, an above average defender if you look at the numbers. And in the second half, I would argue he has been a well above average defender.
sixpacktwo
And of course after one year, Duvall can not get any better?
Dookie Howser, MD
Ouch. Take away a player’s worst month to get him up to .264/.337/.456 line as a slightly above average 3B and make space for him as the second every day utility player on the team and thinking keeping him will help make Cincinnati a contender. Tough to be a Red fan these days….
redsfan48
No no, not the second every day utility player. I said that assuming Peraza will be the everyday SS and Herrera the everyday 2B.
redsfan48
Player A: .264/.337/.456, 15 HR, 54 RBI in 462 AB
Player B: .241/.323/.422, 21 HR, 95 RBI in 519 AB
Player C: .246/.315/.404, 20 HR, 66 RBI in 560 AB
Player A is Suárez excluding the month of May.
Player B is Addison Russell.
Player C is Suárez’s full season.
Many people talk about Russell being a very good player, but, excluding RBI (which are primarily affected by the Cubs’ other hitters being on base more often in front of Russell), Suárez, even including May, has had a very similar year. Take away May, and Suárez has been better by a fairly significant margin.
37santobanks
“Big hitting” Jesse Winker had 3hr in 448 PA’s in 2016 in AAA.
Rbase
It’s really strange how he lost all of his ability to hit for power after the 2014 season.
redsfanman
I believe that’s when he injured his wrist in a midseason car accident, right before his midseason promotion to AA. And he hit nearly as many homeruns in 2015 as he did in 2014. Improving his power numbers is basically the only thing left for Winker to prove in the minors, after spending 2016 as one of the toughest outs in the International League.
Rbase
If he can manage to slug around .450, he will be a valuable player for the Reds. The thing is that he hasn’t got any speed (to cite Redlag nation ‘He is among the slowest players I have watched this year’ ), and considered to be a below average defender, even in the corner outfield positions. Thus, the skillset he has shown this season is very limited and not good enough for any MLB team. If you combine his on base skills to the skillset of a player like Billy Hamilton, an you’ve got one of the best players in the league.
dhud
“Not good enough for any MLB team?” What??
I’m sure there are 29 other teams who would LOVE to have a 23 year old, top 100 prospect who just hit .303 with a .397 OBP in AAA this year
redsfanman
Good article.
I completely agree that Jose Peraza should be the team’s starting SS on opening day. At the same time, he’s not the only versatile guy mentioned. Suarez was moved from SS to 3b this year (with improved defense recently), and has the raw talent to play most of the same positions as Peraza (Peraza has speed to play CF while Suarez has arm to play 3b). What I’m getting at is I doubt Suarez is traded… he’s just as much a utility option as Peraza ever was. Suarez has never played 2b, but probably could. He could handle SS on occasion. If Suarez is replaced at 3b he could easily find himself in a utility role. Suarez is still a young guy with room for improvement.
Suarez seems far more likely to be part of the next Reds contender, whether as a 3b or utility player, than Brandon Phillips. Suarez is still a full year from being eligible for salary arbitration.
In my opinion Brandon Phillips isn’t moving off 2b. Maybe he stays with the Reds, maybe he doesn’t, but that the several time Gold Glover will remain at 2b isn’t in question in my opinion. His glove has obviously declined, but he’s resisted moves before (up the spectrum to SS) and I expect he will again (in this case down the spectrum to 3b). He’s spent almost every inning of his long MLB career at 2b, and I seriously doubt that changes in 2017. He’s more likely to be benched than moved to another position.
Winker hit .303 with a .397 OBP in AAA, with 59 BB and 59 Ks, as a 22 year old. If ‘big-hitting’ isn’t the proper title for him, perhaps ‘extremely-difficult-out’ is. I think the power will come, but his ability to reach base is NOT in question. So far he looks like the opposite of Adam Duvall – the offensive strengths of each are the glaring weakness of the other.
ib6ub9
They need a total rebuild and there is no future til they figure that out. When they figure that out it will take them 3-5 years so maybe we will see them content in the 2020’s with the Cubs,Cardinals, Pirates and soon to be Brewers who figured it out. Good luck
dhud
I see no reason for this much pessimism. The Reds have one of the best farm systems in baseball. Right now they have an exciting assortment of young position players and pitchers; in fact, too many to fit on a diamond at once. The cardinals are not the team they once were and neither are the pirates. If by “contend” you mean win another division title, maybe. But if you’re using contend in its literal since, I will gladly take the under on your 2020 bet
ib6ub9
Hopefully it doesn’t take that long but there farm system is raked 11th. Wouldn’t say that is one of the best but maybe 11 is good out of 30
ib6ub9
Another good draft pick should help. Just keep doing bad like the twins and get top draft picks. Hopefully they can develop them better then the twins