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By Tim Dierkes | at
Email a copy of 'How Much Will Jose Abreu Earn In 2017?' to a friend
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ASapsFables
Very thorough article describing Jose Abreu’s contract and the potential for opting into arbitration this off-season. I agree with the article’s summary that he will in fact opt into arbitration. Another possibility remains: Abreu could be traded this off-season leaving the decision to negotiate a likely arbitration salary to another ball club.
17dingers
They won’t be able to get what they need out of it so I doubt they move him. Of course I’m not privy to their thoughts
jkoch717
If Abreu would opt-out and go for arbitration, couldn’t the White Sox non-tender him? Or does that not apply to a case like this?
Steve Adams
They could, sure, but then he’d just be a free agent. There’s no reason to do that coming off the type of season he had.
vtadave
There probably isn’t much risk in opting in and giving up guaranteed money in 2018/2019, as the likelihood he has an awful 2017 and gets non-tendered is remote.
drbnic
This is another perfect example of how lawyers and baseball players are slowly taking themselves out of the everyday fans budget.
Tim Dierkes
It’s true that their salaries seem ridiculous to us, and this contract situation in particular gets kind of lawyerly.
That said, the money is already there, so an argument against Abreu earning this is generally an argument for more dollars in Reinsdorf’s pocket.
takeyourbase
The problem I have is with these types of opt out clauses in the first place. My opinion ( not that it matters) is that players not subject to a draft should not be allowed arbitration opt-ins when there are players that are subject to drafts that have to play by a different set of rules and likely won’t make the same $10mm- $12mm after 3 years of service time. Hopefully the talk of an international draft comes to fruition and the problem is addressed.
ASapsFables
Jose Abreu is a different case altogether. He was an older, more experienced international free agent and not subject to the same restrictions that apply to younger players and the teams that sign them.
Every MLB club had a crack at signing Abreu back in the 2013 off-season just as they did with other veteran free agents, domestic or international, that also include Japanese and Korean players who typically get posted. Veteran international FA’s usually spend minimal time if any being developed in the minor leagues. However, they do have to accrue MLB service time like any other member of the MLBPA which is where the option of arbitration opt-ins come into play during contract negotiations.
17dingers
Agree
A'sfaninUK
MLB is a billion dollar industry, its not a “game of the people”. There’s nothing that can be done about it other than add a salary cap, but then the money would just go to the owners, and I’d rather pay the players as they very very rarely can play this game past 40, owners can own forever.
Also I feel like people see these big numbers but never consider how much is lost to taxes, not to mention the costs of property taxes, insurance, retirement funds, paying for their entire extended families etc. Sure all the superstars are still millionaires at the end of the day, but the journeymen and relievers are oftentimes not.
stymeedone
Something could be done to make it a game of the people again. Simply put a cap on the Ticket and Concession prices. It would have to be a formula based on the area and demand. (A family of 4 in NYC will always have to pay more than a family of 4 in the Twin Cities). If every game isn’t a sell out (once school is out), the prices are too high. If they make the game affordable, more fans will be created. More fans means that other sources of revenue will increase, such as licensing, ad revenues, tv rights, jersey sales, etc… It would bring fan interest back, while building a stronger product. A seat doesn’t have to cost $50, or a hot dog $8. Empty seats don’t buy eats, drinks, or ride the Ferris Wheel. Raise attendance by lowering prices. It will only help the game.
A'sfaninUK
Fan interest is as high as its ever been, that’s an incorrect statement. It’s a worldwide game now, and fans all over the planet pay money to watch their team, be it live or on mlb.tv.
Like I said, its a billion dollar industry and grows every year. Its always about the money. Honestly, every team could play to an empty stadium and they’d all still make massive profits. I would agree with anyone who said the game is too big though, which is I think what you mean. But as an owner, why would you want less profits? They are 100% of the time do what makes the most money, and that means going to games is going to be expensive. I think to your point, teams should offer sections of prime seats at low prices on certain games and have cheap seats that are always a set price, like $20. The food problem is due to each team having different vendors, who charge differently. In NYC literally everything is more expensive than every other city, so that’s a moot point to single out baseball. There’s just very little that can be done here that’s feasible, sorry.
17dingers
And charities benefit as well. Many of these guys give more than we know
A'sfaninUK
I’m not quite sure his offensive production is “declining steadily”, he just had a bad 1st half in 2016 but was really great in the second half, with that first half really dragging down his overall numbers. I’d like to see what he does next year before committing to a comment like that, as his 2016 looks like it could be a little bit of an outlier year. Could be wrong though.
Tim Dierkes
Not sure I see a clear first half/second half trend; more like a huge August. That came right after he hit zero HR in July, so you could find meaning in either or neither.
Anyway, the wRC+ trend has gone 167, 129, 118, so I view that as a steady decline in performance each year.
ASapsFables
Jose Abreu’s rejuvenation at the plate this past season coincided with news that he would be reunited with his 5-year-old son Dariel for just the second time since he defected from Cuba in 2013.
Since signing a six-year contract with the White Sox in the fall of 2013, Abreu had seen his son in person once, during Major League Baseball’s goodwill trip to Cuba last December. On a White Sox off day in August, Abreu went to Miami to greet his son upon his arrival in the U.S. before heading to Kansas City for a series.
Abreu, whose parents joined him in the U.S. in 2014, said Dariel now has a five-year visa that will allow him to visit more often.
Abreu’s improving family situation alone might be enough of a guarantee to the White Sox as they deal with his likely status as an arbitration eligible in 2017, as well as for two more additional seasons beyond that. The possibility of a contract extension also remains in play that could keep him a White Sox past 2019.
A'sfaninUK
Wow, that is amazing that he started mashing as soon as he got his kid back. Analysts usually never take personal life stress like that into consideration, it absolutely can cause problems. I feel like somethings going on with Jason Heyward in that same way. If your head isn’t in the game the numbers won’t be there. I’m going to bet Abreu has a massive 2017 now.
17dingers
That’s a very good point…happens often with foreign players…would affect me too probably…
nrd1138
Wish I could thumbs up this comment. Abreu finally had his son here to see him play in Miami this past season. That was huge and you could see in his approach becasue he started tearing the cover off of the ball. A lot of folks do not realize that Abreu is really big on his family, and it obviously impacted him for him to not see his son, especially earlier in the season. I’m not saying Abreu will have a monster season next season, but it should be at least on par with his first season with the Sox. Besides it is not like the Sox have anyone else waiting to play first to have that kind of production.
ChiSoxCity
The only psychological issue I see is his inability to adjust his swing. He has the worst batting mechanics and stance I have ever seen.
nrd1138
If he hits the ball and drives in run, who cares? IMO Sammy Sosa and Julio Franco both had lousy stances, same with Sheffield, but they seemed to do well (even though Sammy likely had chemical assistance). Abreu also had to adjust to trying to drive in runs even though almost every pitch he saw was out of the zone because teams were pitching around him for the past two seasons. Again who would the Sox get that would be better than Abreu at this point?
I think if the Sox can get Frazier’s average a bit higher, or keep Morneau to hit behind Abreu, he will be fine.
TampaHuey
Good Stuff Tim, good article, detailed and explained well
17dingers
I agree, he had a nice second half
Arjonn
Does the guesstimated salary of about $12mm include $1.66 from his pro-rated signing bonus?
Tim Dierkes
No…Abreu’s signing bonus was paid out as $6MM by Nov 2013 and the other $4MM by Nov 2014, so he’s already collected all of that. Still figures into the 2016 salary calculation, mostly likely.
GabeOfThrones
I think one avenue that hasn’t been mentioned yet is the possibility of using the opt-in clause as a ploy to negotiate an extension. Maybe he’d agree to not opt-in to arbitration in exchange for a player opt-out after two years and substantial raises in the 3rd year and an added 4th? Gives both sides a little more insurance.
cxcx
I am confused by this being approached as “how much will he get” rather than “how big will his raise be,” as the latter is how articles on this site typically frame arbitration.
I understand the first year of arbitration is slightly different and could be considered more of an amount thing (since every first year arb player typically made around the minimum the previous year) but even first year arb boils down to a raise off previous year’s salary, whether that raise is $100k or $6m.
That being said, and without checking all Abreu’s totals, I would peg him to get around $16m-$17m next year.
22222pete
Wasnt Jose Iglesias under contract and then filed for arbitration once his contract expired (not yet eligible for FA). As I recall, he took a pay cut.
Also, by going the arbitration route Abreu loses financial security. A major injury gets him non tendered. His next 3 years are guaranteed dollars under the original deal.
Have to wonder if the cartel that got him out of Cuba still has its hooks in him as he really should not be taking this risk amidst all that uncertainty. Maybe his new agent ISE wants a bigger commission since his original deal was negotiated by others. I dunno. They are probably the only ones not minding the pay cut since they get the commission for the 4th year and not the previous agent (cartel). Hmmm, I think I am on to something.
jtmorgan
Iglesias was a pre arb guy after his initial IFA deal was signed and he got pay cuts, because the pay is up to the team who can pay whatever they want as long as it’s at least minimum and no more than a 20% pay cut. Last year was his first year of arbitration and he received about a 700k increase.
bradthebluefish
Never give up sure money, especially $30MM worth over the course of three years. Abreu is guaranteed that money regards of performance or injuries. I wouldn’t entertain opting out.
staypuft
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