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By Mark Polishuk | at
Email a copy of 'Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles' to a friend
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Dookie Howser, MD
How long before the Orioles start regretting that absurd Chris Davis contract?
A'sfaninUK
Probably never as long as he stays around 3 fWAR? He’s getting $23M a year, its not absurd anymore especially for a guy who has had 2 MVP-level seasons in the last 4. They’re paying for that ceiling, not his floor.
Dookie Howser, MD
His 2016 War of 2.7 puts him solidly at 68th in the league (tied with Didi Gregorius and Eduardo Nunez). He is ranked 34th in WAR over the 4 year span that you mentioned, and even if you throw out his horrible 2014, Davis has been on decline since his peak in 2013. I guess paying a strikeout prone slugger $23million/year into the next decade because he was good four years ago can be fun, though, just ask the Phillies
Arjonn
So you’re saying he wasn’t good two years ago when he put up 5.2 bWAR?
Dookie Howser, MD
No that isn’t what I am saying. What I am saying is that he wasn’t as good as he was in 2013, but better than he was in 2016. That is what is called a downward trend.
But really my point is that, while I don’t expect this downward trend to continue forever, I also don’t expect Davis to reach anywhere near that 7.0 WAR peak 2013 year, which is how he is getting paid for the next 6 years (or 20 years depending on how you want to allocate the deferments), even though other ball club was even thinking about paying that much for Davis. That is why I am saying it is an absurd albatross contract that Baltimore is going to regret.
24TheKid
I agree with this
Nick4747
And on top of that high strikeout big bopping low average guys tend to not hold on even if they don’t regret it this year or even next chances are the last 3-4 years they regret about the same time they’re trying to sign machado
BoldyMinnesota
They already have
Manny's Pancakes
42M of his contract is deferred, so his payroll hit is closer to $17 million a year. FWIW, Davis was playing through a hand injury for most of the season.
Dookie Howser, MD
True on the deferments. And they are interest free, so it is a good deal for the club i nthat respect. Might be frustrating for whoever is running the front office in 2033 to realize that they need to keep paying some guy named Chris Davis $1.4million per year for 5 more years.
Manny's Pancakes
The team will most likely remain in the Angelos family. My guess is the willingness to give Davis a deal is backed by confidence in their ongoing court case against The Nationals over TV royalties for their shared media network, MASN.
jd396
If Bautista signs for something reasonable he’d actually be a pretty good fit for Baltimore, I think. He didn’t have much of a good year this year but I have a feeling he’d rebound a bit, as power guys seem to do in Baltimore pretty regularly these days.
He actually made his MLB debut as a Rule 5 pick with Baltimore back when he was a forgettable utility guy.
mstrchef13
No way he signs with Baltimore. First, he won’t sign for something reasonable unless it’s March and no one has signed him yet. Second, he’s by far the most hated baseball player in Baltimore and the fans would never accept him being an Oriole. Third, he would never be welcomed into the clubhouse by the rest of the team, and Buck is a big believer in team chemistry. What he would bring to the team offensively would be offset by the disruptions he would cause to the defense, the clubhouse, and the payroll.
MatthewBaltimore23
I’m an O’s fan and I hate Jose Buttista. No way he’s joining our team.
Nick4747
Good thing you don’t run a team letting previous feuds get in the way of business how many times has a hated player signed with a team never say never and honestly why wouldn’t u want him at that price for any other reason he’s more of an on base threat than trumbo and has the same potential for Homer’s plus actually can field a position
A'sfaninUK
It’s almost time for Adam Jones to move to a corner, unless they decide to Jeter him in CF until he retires, which obviously would hurt them. Kim-Desmond-Jones would be a fantastic OF.
Other than that, with all this talk of trading Trout to replenish the farm and return the team to contention, the Orioles are also in a similar situation with a horrible farm and big holes preventing them from going to the next level – trading Machado would work in the same way – homer fans please don’t bite my head off, you got to admit it makes -some- sense. The Orioles are a flawed team, they have an amazing offense but no starting pitching. They could keep contending for much longer, and have a more balanced team (like the Cubs) that way.
JamieMoyer 4
Very different situations (in my admittedly biased opinion) simply because the Angels have no farm system and limited budget flexibility but also are going nowhere on the major league level. The Orioles farm system is similarly bad, but they have been successful despite their holes (hell, they made the playoffs this year). You don’t trade a piece like Machado while you’re winning.
dwilson10
It would make a lot more sense to trade Britton, not Machado. They have a better chance of getting Machado back and would still get a huge haul for Britton. They already have a few pitches they could use as closer, so replacing Britton would be easier than replacing Machado.
bucknerforhall
They could get a haul for Britton right now as well – & that bullpen would still be solid without him. O’Day could close.
I dont think theyd do it but Cubs could trade Soler & Almora -thats 10 years of control – for 2 years of Britton -those 2 could start right away for Balt – at a combined $3 mill.
A'sfaninUK
Orioles need quality SPs, not position players though. I would hope any trade they make would bring in an actual ace and not some 4+ FIP fake-good SPs like they had this year.
mstrchef13
There are no “actual aces” available. Really. Go look and give me a name, then tell me what the O’s would have to trade to acquire said player.
bucknerforhall
I agree not sure who would give up a SP
LAD ? if they miss out on Jansen?
maybe SFG? Tyler Bede?
but he wasnt enough to get miller..
seamaholic 2
Cubs would LOVE to trade Almora and Soler for Britton. They’d get outbid by like 10 other teams though. Britton in this market is worth way more than that.
mstrchef13
The team needs a serious boost in OBP. Not sure if the team wants to go chasing Dexter Fowler again (assuming the Cubs don’t pick up his option), but Jon Jay would be a good fit.
seamaholic 2
Yeah but they need pitching more. I wonder if Mancini is a decent trade chip. Several teams looking for first basemen.
Pops
Trade Davis not Mancini.
Richard 3
No one would pick up the remainder of his contract.
slider32
The O’s never look like a playoff team at this time of the year, let’s wait and see what delvelops. They need a lot to keep up with other teams. I do like the progress of Gausman and Bundy last year, that’s positive, losing Trumbo will hurt big time. This division can be topsy turvy.
Pops
Let Trumbo go. He is terrible against lefty pitching. A DH platoon of Kim/Pearce would be great with higher OBP and much less money per year.
southi
Wow, while I was looking more in depth at the under contract pitchers of Jimenez, Miley, and Tillman and I was reminded why I don’t like the FIP stat as much as some of the people who throw it around trying to make points all the time (and btw I’m NOT saying it doesn’t have uses, just that it isn’t as much a tell all stat as SOME people seemingly make it out to be). If you look at the season FIP totals (remember Miley pitched with Seattle as well) then they are all within roughly .20 of the same FIP. Those three pitchers obviously don’t all have the same value and to me it is just another example of FIP not telling the full story. You have to look at peripherals to understand more.
toppcatt
What about Joey Rickard? Believe he is a free agent after his Rule 5 signing. Any interest here?
Richard 3
Not a free agent. He’s under the O’s control for 5 more years.
Manny's Pancakes
Would love to see extensions for Schoop and Gausman this offseason, Manny seems unlikely to sign. Curious to see how the Orioles will utilize Mancini and Walker.
Anyone think a Britton for Chris Sale trade is possible?
dwilson10
This would make sense for the O’s but the problem is that the White Sox already have a good closer and the O’s would have to give up a lot more than just Britton to get Sale. They would probably have to give up Britton, Sisco, and another top prospect or 2. Maybe a more realistic target from the White Sox would be Quintana.
Nick4747
While a straight trade or one with only the two teams involved probably very unlikely but a third party one I could see but Baltimore is giving up more than just Britton with no real sp on the free agent market and ace relievers available teams are itching to try to get an ace starter more than an ace reliever
camtastic
How is Ubaldo owed 17.5 million and Kim owed 4.75 mill shouldn’t it be 13.5 and 4.25 respectively?
Jeff Todd
You are correct. Not sure what happened there, but I fixed it.
allencarbaugh
Kim needs to face as many left handed pitchers in the off season and spring training, because he needs to play everyday. Mancini should be the everyday DH. I would not be opposed to trading Britton as long as we get a legit leadoff hitter. Neither would I be opposed to upgrading SS. I do not know if the Nats would give up Turner, but that is the type of deal the Orioles need to make. Not bringing in Raji Davis! Jonathan Villar is another option I like. Trumbo and Wieters should be qualified, but not brought back. Sisco should be on the roster next year, unless he is terrible in spring training. Davis, Schoop, Manny, Jones will provide enough power with all four hitting a combined 120 HRs.
Manny's Pancakes
Couldn’t agree more about having Kim see more playing time. His ability to get on base negates his mixed results in left field. I’m curious to see how Mancini and Walker would do in right field. Nats would never trade with us, let alone give up Trea Turner unless we dealt both Manny and Britton, but I wonder if that would even be enough.
*If* JJ can stay healthy, we still have two years left on his contract, which might be enough time to bridge the gap until Ryan Mountcastle or Jomar Reyes is ready at SS or 3B.
At this point, I think the Orioles should try to sign Britton to an extension and buy out his remaining arbitration years. If we fall out of contention, we can move him at the deadline like Andrew Miller. I also think the O’s should take a look at signing Greg Holland.
misterb71
I might not know a lot, but there’s one thing I can be certain of — the O’s will not go after Rajai Davis and use his base-stealing ability to change their offense. Since the arrival of Buck Showalter this club has been all about HRs and the big inning to beat teams into submission on offense. They are not going to morph into a team that starts manufacturing runs and stealing bases. When you factor in Rajai Davis being a rag-arm liability in the OF I can guarantee you won’t see him in orange and black in 2017.